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was a bit worrying today to see the interview with Ruby saying that Denman tends to plant himse a bit at the start of his races – not something I’d ever noticed.
My tuppence worth is that Exotic Dancer would appear the most likely candidate to ruffle KS at Cheltenham but only if he is on tip top form and KS runs a few pounds light of his best.
Denman still has a bit to prove I think, although he is clearly up there.
Exotic Dancer would be for me the toughest of the three to access. He got within a length of Kauto which would perhaps have us thinking he had improved. Then ridden differently Kauto annihilates him at Kempton. PN says Kauto is in the best shape he has had him all season, Jonjo’s horses are under a cloud.
It’s almost impossible to work that lot out…..it’s a mess and too easy to make excuses for ED or say Kauto was flattered at Kempton as ED never ran his normal race.
I am hoping Denman is a better horse than ED and he brings out the very best in Kauto..if he is not and it is another Kauto 1st ED 2nd would be boring in comparison.
My tuppence worth is that Exotic Dancer would appear the most likely candidate to ruffle KS at Cheltenham but only if he is on tip top form and KS runs a few pounds light of his best.
Denman still has a bit to prove I think, although he is clearly up there.
I think far too much use was made of Exotic Dancer in the King George, which didn’t help the horse at all. I’m sure he’ll be ridden with more restraint at Cheltenham, which should help him get closer to KS.
At least the Kauto Star/ Exotic Dancer Gold Cup exacta should now total a decent amount.
I think it’s become increasingly obvious to many that ED is great value at a best priced 12/1 for the Gold Cup. He’s never finished outside the first three over fences at Cheltenham and his respective price is very much an OTT, knee-jerk reaction by the bookies.
It’s also a great way to hype the race up even further – Kauto Star and Denman fighting it out for favoritism while Exotic Dancer is the next best at double-figure odds.
Perhaps they’re hoping punters will cut their throats backing either of the Nicholls’ pair? We’re not that daft, are we?
I wouldn’t read too much into EDs King George effort. I think he needs a left-handed course even greater than Kauto. His right-handed form in this country reads F222. Also, I don’t think his usual sound jumping is as effective a weapon going right-handed.
Of the five races they’ve competed against each other, you should only discard their Old Roan efforts – both running over an inadequate trip on their seasonal debuts. That leaves two right-handed and two left-handed duals between them.
KS has beaten ED a combined total of 20L going right. The aggregate total going left is only 3L. I wouldn’t completely discard EDs chances of turning KS over someday, but it would take a monumental effort.
A lot of people are saying ‘If Denman can do, if Denman can do that, then he can expose any weakness Kauto Star has’. IMO, I haven’t witnessed any chinks in Kauto’s armour. He jumps well, has a turn of foot, stays incredibly well and, taking the GC into consideration, loves going left-handed. If ever there was / is a race he was going to lose then it would have been either the KG or the Tingle Creek, and he’s destroyed every contender he’s come up against.
It would be folly to presume that, come raceday, it will be a three-horse race. However, at the moment, it’s hard to look beyond the front three in the market. I would still consider ED to be a greater threat to KS than Denman because his form is there for all to see. Denman is still, relatively speaking, a talking horse – a mighty big, fine talking horse nonetheless!
Turning for home in the Gold Cup, we can only dream of seeing Denman still tanking along in front, Kauto cruising up ready to pounce and McCoy motionless aboard Exotic Dancer.
Interesting to note the official handicapper Phil Smith has left Denman at 176 following yesterdays race, even though he raised Kauto Star to 180 after the King George.
With Exotic Dancer on 177 there are three closely rated horses.
Smith says, "We have not had three horses rated in the high 170s and above going into the race for many, many years.
"In a normal year, any of them would be a Gold Cup winner but this is obviously an exceptional period and we are very lucky to have them all."
Paul Nicholls has said: "They are both great horses in their own right and I’m not going to draw comparisons. One day they will take each other on and it will be a very interesting race.
"I think Denman is the sort of horse that the better the race, the better he will run and we probably won’t know how good he is until he runs in that Gold Cup."
I agree with Mr Smith almost completely. My ratings are a tiny bit different but not much :
Kauto Star 181+
Exotic Dancer 180
Denman 176In any normal year, baring accidents any one of the three would surely win the Gold Cup. I can’t ever remember a time where we’ve had three 175 plus staying chasers, its not often you get one let alone three.
I can’t see Denman getting near to KS in the GC. The only horse that will trouble KS is ED, nothing else is good enough to get near him. Kauto Star I am beginning to think is a freak of nature, his engine is unbelievable, he travels so well and his ability to quicken is second to none. His jumping has improved so much this season, he is the complete staying chaser.
JohnJ
No + for Denman, but you give one to Kauto? An interesting take on things…
Denman hasn’t won any race with something CLEARLY left in the tank whereas Kauto Star ran to 181 at Kempton yet Ruby was patting his neck halfway up the run in which suggests that Kauto could almost certainly have run a few pounds higher.
Denman I have no evidence that he could run to a higher mark, maybe he can depending on conditions etc but that is speculation at the moment and without any real evidence. I can’t raise him or plus him on what I suppose he might do, he has to earn any rating he achieves.
I can’t see Denman getting near to KS in the GC. The only horse that will trouble KS is ED, nothing else is good enough to get near him. Kauto Star I am beginning to think is a freak of nature, his engine is unbelievable, he travels so well and his ability to quicken is second to none. His jumping has improved so much this season, he is the complete staying chaser.
JohnJ
I was of that opinion but then last night I studied my figures in depth and it gave me food for thought.
Kauto’s peak performances (and Exotic Dancer’s for that matter) have come on flat tracks over twenty four furlongs. ED’s left handed but Kauto is more versatile.
In last years Gold Cup neither KS or ED ran to within five pounds of their peak ratings but were still good enough to finish first and second. However this time there is a 176 horse to take them on. If KS and ED run to similar marks in 2008’s Gold cup as they did in 2007’s then Denman is going to be right there with them as he looks sure to run to a mid 170’s mark (accidents permitting) as he’s already done that over three miles and over 3 1/4 miles in the Hennessy.
I can see why bookies have him so short.
Flash, last years GC was a very muddling race, with no pace on for the best part of the race. The race at Kempton on Boxing day was completely different, there was a good pace throughout the race which played right into the hands of KS. Btw, can’t see a slow pace suiting Denman either.
JohnJ.
Flash, last years GC was a very muddling race, with no pace on for the best part of the race. The race at Kempton on Boxing day was completely different, there was a good pace throughout the race which played right into the hands of KS. Btw, can’t see a slow pace suiting Denman either.
JohnJ.
Yet the time of last years race was quick for the conditions, only a second or so below standard on Good to soft ground.
I don’t disagree with you and a faster pace may suit both Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer but we still don’t really know of eithers stamina (in terms of running to their peak marks) over 26 1/2 furlongs off a true pace. The only evidence we have so far is that over 26 furlongs both have run below their best on their only attempt (albeit still finishing 1st and 2nd in a Gold Cup).
Denman will lie handy in the race I think and use his stride. He will stay and will make it a stamina test being sent on from a fair way out. KS and ED will track him then it just remains to be seen whether either can quicken past Denman or whether they’ll fail to quicken off a fast pace at the trip.
Its open to individual interpretation.
I think though that in order to beat Denman, Kauto and Exotic are going to have to run better than they did in 2007’s Gold Cup.
And in the same breath, Denman will need to improve on his last run to beat KS and ED
JohnJ
And in the same breath, Denman will need to improve on his last run to beat KS and ED
JohnJ
Not on last years Gold Cup ratings he wouldn’t. 176 would’ve won him 2007’s Gold Cup.
- Total Posts 17716
I don’t disagree with you and a faster pace may suit both Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer but we still don’t really know of eithers stamina (in terms of running to their peak marks) over 26 1/2 furlongs off a true pace. The only evidence we have so far is that over 26 furlongs both have run below their best on their only attempt (albeit still finishing 1st and 2nd in a Gold Cup).
Flash
You don’t think that Exotic Dancer proved his stamina in his heavy ground Cotswold victory then, where Our Vic may not have stayed but Halcon Genelardais (btn 25l) most certainly did?I’m surprised that on their very best pieces of form, you have only 1 lb between Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.
I don’t disagree with you and a faster pace may suit both Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer but we still don’t really know of eithers stamina (in terms of running to their peak marks) over 26 1/2 furlongs off a true pace. The only evidence we have so far is that over 26 furlongs both have run below their best on their only attempt (albeit still finishing 1st and 2nd in a Gold Cup).
Flash
You don’t think that Exotic Dancer proved his stamina in his heavy ground Cotswold victory then, where Our Vic may not have stayed but Halcon Genelardais (btn 25l) most certainly did?Yes to a degree but that was a furlong less than the Gold Cup trip and Exotic Dancer ran to 175 IMO which was probably the same mark as Denman ran to in the Hennessy.
A furlong further – in the Gold Cup didn’t quite run to that mark for whatever reason – Stamina? / Ground? / Pace of race?
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