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or most overrated…
1. The clock. Limited application. Anything above 1m seems worthless to me and over the jumps its <!– s:lol: –>
<!– s:lol: –>2. Trends and stats. Without any logic to back them up…forget it. <!– s:evil: –>
<!– s:evil: –>3. Jockeys opinion. Stunted simpleton says "he could go round again!". yeah yeah <!– s:roll: –>
<!– s:roll: –>4. Jockey form. Should relate to just to their convictions <!– s:shock: –>
<!– s:shock: –>5. The market. Blind following the blind…?. <!– s:roll: –>
<!– s:roll: –>Listening to Trainers (going and distance requirements in particular), Jockeys, The Racing Post, Pundits, TV stations, Experts (bar a few), The Formbook (except higher class racing) + trusting official going reports.
All of the above a turnover machine for the bookmakers
jockeys
the vast majority fit in a bracket that can be labelled "will win on it if the horse is up for it/ready to win" and so are in my opinion professional passengers with varying degrees of success each season depending on the animal beneath them and the luck/effort/form of their agent/trainer
Jockeys / trainers / pundits opinions.
Don’t take a blind bit of notice of any of them. Had I have done I wouldn’t have won a stack on Nannina at Royal Ascot for a start as her trainer quoted about five minutes before the off that she needs ten furlongs.
What a load of cobblers.
…Getting to the counter on time…Why?….because every time the bird says im too late, i never lose!
tv pundits are the last people i would listen to. no names but one in particular…………whoa there big fella……….states his fancies on tv, fair enough but on the same channels teletext page there is a number to ring to hear his nap of the day, my question is why would he tell us what he REALLY fancies for nowt then expect people to pay??,chipmunk
Very good
Classic examples recently….
Aidan O Brien telling all and sundry that DT is a fast ground horse before the Arc despite him winning the King George on G/S.
Fallon saying his preference on the Sunday before the Arc was SOF because of the ground.
Gosden saying the ground was too fast for Pipedreamer and Lucarno wouldn’t get the trip in the Ledger.
Not saying these guys aren’t very good at what they do, but even with them its educated guesswork a lot of the time. Most people seem to take it as gospel.
Gosden saying the ground was too fast for Pipedreamer and Lucarno wouldn’t get the trip in the Ledger.
Come on now….
Gosden said he wasnt certain that he would get the trip. He would hardly run him if he clearly stated that he wouldnt get the trip
The ground was too ideally too fast for Pipedreamer. But his class overcame that.
Aidan O Brien telling all and sundry that DT is a fast ground horse before the Arc despite him winning the King George on G/S.
Fallon saying his preference on the Sunday before the Arc was SOF because of the ground.
Dt is a fast ground horse. Whats wrong with him stating that.
I take little notice of anything Fallon says
Do we want trainers to take the Stoute approach and say virtually nothing? Gosden is open and honest and knows his horses. He is a big believer in telling it how he sees it and whether that matches the outcome or not is neither here nor there. At the very least, its a useful piece of information that can be used….
He is not a tipping line
Dave
Jockey form leaves me cold but trainer form?
Surely we see time and again stables hit purple patches and the key to the validity of these spells is that they often occur at similar times year after year.
Sometimes it could all be a statistical blip and a bit of luck, but stables probably work to similar routines year in year out and that reflects itself in the form
I would say when you follow the market blindly.
There are sme shrewd stables and owners when the money is down you should take the hint. However, some market moves you have to look into and realise that the market often gets it wrong more times than it gets it right.
Clivex
If you want to get into semantics I’ll change that to Gosden "implying" rather than "saying".
What trainer ever says his horse hasn’t got a chance? Either way whether its said or implied the effect on the market is the same.
Gosden DIDNT say "that the ground would be ideally too fast for Pipedreamer but his class would overcome it" he DID say 2 days before the race that Pipedreamer was not a certain runner if the ground continued to dry out, which it did.
Gosden DID imply that Lucarno wouldnt get the Ledger trip on breeding and he DID say that the final decision on the horses participation was the owners and not his.
DT is a fast ground horse, he’s also a soft ground horse which O Brien said he wasn’t in his post race interview after the Internatonal.
You take little notice of what Fallon says – Good for you! Me neither, at last we agree on something.
"Whether a trainers opinion matches the result is neither here nor there" –
Agreed its whether my opinion matches the result that matters which is why I listen to very little of them (especially going and distance requirements)
Which is what your thread is all about in the first place.
Me too David…
CR…all those horses had very strong chances. Because of that, the negatives that were highlighted by the trainers were appropiate but not sufficient to counter the class of the runner.
Its up to you and trainers will not always get it right, but indicators such as these are better than nothing. Ive certainly saved plenty by taking on board a warning comment from a trainer that i largely trust
True they all had strong chances and maybe the negatives were appropriate, they were certainly appropriate to the prices of these horses because…
They allowed DT to be a massive price (imo) on Arc Day,
They allowed Lucarno to go off second favourite to a classic favourite (Honolulu) that had beaten a 93 rated handicapper just 3 lengths in its previous start
They allowed Pipedreamer a group class horse in a handicap to remain at 5/1 in the antepost markets a week before the Cambridgeshire despite being pricewise about 2 weeks before the race itself.
On the other hand Chapple-Hyam’s remarks that Authorized was on his own away from other horses and people at Longchamp when he travelled over…now that was interesting
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