lay syatem

[mal1964]

Hi Billian , yes i think you are correct on that one i remember looking at it on betdaq. As to the winning system i always stop at a winner as i have always thaught " a bird in the bush" and all that , but i do admit sometimes i have gon for the 2nd win.

[billion]

So

Mal

There is nothing new under the sun as they say but sometimes the wheel can be reinvented.

Stop at a Winner is one of the oldest staking plans and could be one of the best but only if it suits, you cannot put square pegs in round holes and maybe if you keep on searching you could find another staking plan that just may sit a little more comfortable with yourself.

Anybody can only give best advice but only as they see it, another can also give their best advice which could be very differnt indeed, both may think it truly is yhe best and only way you should do things from their own point of view but it remains for you to take it on board and think about it and choose if you so will which if anything to do.

Billy's Outback Shack

[mal1964]

"wow" that was deep billion , thanks for the posting and yes i do agree

[Dolus]

I made a post last night thanking Mal for pointing me to the tipsters on The Betting Site and suggesting to Billion that a limited loss recovery plan might be the way to go.

I signed of saying I had been on the PC all day and my brain hurt.

I must have hurt more than I thought as obviously I forgot to submit the message. DOH!

[billion]

We all do those things

Dolus

but hope it was worth all the pain.

It was difficult to put into words

Mal

but it sounds as if you understood me in the end.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Dolus]

Now I have had my porridge lets see if I can do some figures based on getting a winner 75% of the time in the first three bets and stopping at a winner.

Level stakes

I will lose 3 points 25% of the time = 75 points lost

Assuming the favourites price of 2/1 (that’s about halfway between 1/1 & 4/1 where favourites lie, ignoring odds on shots.)

If the first bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 2 points x75 =150-75 =

75 points profit

If the second bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 1 point x75 =75-75 =

0 points profit/loss

If the third bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 0 points x75 =0-75 =

75 points loss

——————————————————

Billions plan

Stakes of 1,2 and 3

I will lose 6 points 25% of the time = 150 points lost

If the first bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 2 points x75 =150-150 =

0 points profit/loss

If the second bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 3 points x75 =225-150 =

75 points profit

If the third bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 3 points x75 =225-150 =

75 points profit

Now if we change the stakes to 2,3 & 4

I will lose 9 points 25% of the time = 225 points lost

If the first bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 4 points x75 =300-225 =

75 points profit

If the second bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 4 points x75 =300-225 =

75 points profit

If the third bet always wins 75% of the time I will win 3 points x75 =225-225 =

0 points profit/loss

Thats enough for now.

[billion]

Who’s a clever boy then?

I am the one with the headache now and will re-read it again later but without a doubt it looks a little bit like a winner.

I will experiment today (providing Mrs B does not want to go shopping . . . again!) and try this out with Formcast who I prefer to RPR.

In the meanwhile I will keep taking the Asprin.

Billy's Outback Shack

[mal1964]

i like the angle on formcast , as i say there are diffrent angles to this theory

[billion]

I agree

Mal

as with all theories once the "can of worms" is opened you can never be sure what comes out.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Here are today’s

FORMCAST

( Daily Mail) Fav’s. to watch closer to the off.

2.10 Catt. CONO ZUR 15/8 7/13 tips

2.20 Kemp. FEMME de FER 3/1 8/13 tips

2.30 Exeter ROYAL CHARM 2/5 13/13 tips (

3.10 Catt. LORDSHIP 7/2 5/13 tips

4.00 Exeter SUPREME KEANO 4/1 2/13 tips

4.10 Catt. NO WONGA 2/1 5/13 tips

4.50 Kemp. LUCKY SCORE 7/4 7/13 tips

5.20 Kemp. SUPPORT FUND 4/1 3/13 tips

Best prices at 11.30 am from Odds Checker and the tips were noted from Betdaq "tip check"

Not only was there little joy with regard to the results but also I found it most time consuming, that said the experiment was worthwhile if only to say "This is not for me"

Billy's Outback Shack

[mal1964]

Sorry about this billion , are these horses to lay or to bet if fave going to post

[billion]

To BET!

I hate laying, when I tried it I found the whole experience far too stressful.

Billy's Outback Shack

[mal1964]

thanks billion , very interesting that in your list you have Cat 3.10…..LORDSHIP do you know about a system which states using daily mail and handycap races only if the horse is rated 78 and the next rated horse is 76 or less its a good bet to win.I remember it doing really well, anyway LORDSHIP is 78 and the next one is Grissom at 73 .

[billion]

I have not heard of that one

Mal

thanks, I will put it in the locker especially if his LORDSHIP wins.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

I have just looked at the paper and LORDSHIP is the only selection with a points gap throughout the day and it is Formcast’s Special Bet

Billy's Outback Shack

[mal1964]

interesting

[Dolus]

Hi Billion

You certainly had a lot of selections using Formcast.

I listed all the RPR selections and waited to just before the off to see if any were favourite. (I could have just checked after racing.)

Discounting the odds on Royal Charm I only had three and they all lost.

[Author]

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