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Spot on Joe.
Al Ferof ran an encouraging race on come back, but that was only a two horse race. Ended up having a late small bet on him for Kempton. Taken in isolation plodding on for a fair third like one sure to be suited by further. However, we know he has form at 2m4f or even 2 miles. So there was probably some other reason for the lacklustre performance. Opposed him on Saturday because of it. Just doesn’t quite seem 100% at the moment. Did not impress me in the paddock either.
Texas Jack only beaten half a length and the same by Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. Unless the fourth has improved dramatically it is far more likely second and third were below their best. FL has disappointed all season for me. TB probably needs an extreme test of stamina to produce his best these days. Or at least a test at this trip. Although not pedestrian, LI did not go a strong enough pace to bring enough stamina in to play for the Nicholls horse…
Therefore, although this performance is encouraging (particularly with jumping) and deserves credit for being his best performance yet… Last Instalment needs to make another big step up at Cheltenham. Those with 40/1 or even 16/1 have undoubtedly got a good value bet, but he’s (imo) far too short now, with doubts about soundness, ground and travelling too. Unless there aren’t any other prominent runners (very possible) doubt I’ll be backing him in March.
Disconcerting for First Lieutenant Gold Cup backers. Another lacklustre display, hope whichever race he goes for either new headgear or more prominent tactics are used. Doesn’t look a happy chappy. LI now seemingly Gigginstown first string. Mouse Morris’s charge drifting for the staying contest while backed for the shorter Ryanair once again. Surely not going to be denied a run again?
Value Is EverythingDo you not think First Lieutenant’s Lexus run was a good run Ginger?
He was disappointing on Sunday, he looked in trouble from an early stage imo and I wonder if he was really hating the ground.
Do you not think First Lieutenant’s Lexus run was a good run Ginger?
He was disappointing on Sunday, he looked in trouble from an early stage imo and I wonder if he was really hating the ground.
Yes, I was "disappointed" with First Lieutenant in the Lexus THM, though obviously nowhere near as much as Saturday. Three miles in a less than truly run contest on soft ground should have been ideal for FL. So disappointed could not beat Bobs Worth under what is for the Henderson horse far from ideal conditions. Bobs Worth and Sir Des Champs not at their best that day either, nevertheless former doing as well as could be expected given circumstances. At his best – First Lieutenant should imo have beaten Rubi Ball, Lyreen Legend and Foildubh by further than distances that day. Though RB possibly flattered by run of race. That said, am a fan and probably have a greater expectation of FL than most, so has a lot to live up to.
You’re right THM, heavy ground is one possible excuse. There is a possibility it was against him and wouldn’t blame anyone for reaching that conclusion. Another possible reason: Haven’t noticed, has Morris beeen in as good form this season? But on the whole I’ve come down on the theory FL has just not been at best this term. Should be better at Cheltenham, how much better though? Needs to be.
Value Is EverythingSpot on Joe.
Therefore, although this performance is encouraging (particularly with jumping) and deserves credit for being his best performance yet… Last Instalment needs to make another big step up at Cheltenham. Those with 40/1 or even 16/1 have undoubtedly got a good value bet, but he’s (imo) far too short now, with doubts about soundness, ground and travelling too. Unless there aren’t any other prominent runners (very possible) doubt I’ll be backing him in March.
On the basis of what does he need to step up? A reproduction would put him right in the mix with improvement a fair possibility.
You say the run was ‘encouraging’? Presumably, that’s purposefully disparaging. His first run back was the encouraging one. Virtually everyone else including the likes of Geraghty, Walsh and McCoy have not been slow to describe the win as ‘impressive’. None of them have a direct connection with the horse. In fact Geraghty is on record as saying Last Instalment is his biggest danger. There are plenty of jockeys who are not worth listening to, Geraghty certainly isn’t one of them. He is clearly in a pretty good position to assess the relative merits of the two horses. I don’t think it is too much of a surprise the horse shortened up yesterday – 5 or 6/1 would seem about right.
Soundness, ground and travelling? As I said above it sounds almost like you are desperate to see the horse beaten. NRNB covers the possibility of him not turning up. Soundness hasn’t affected his first two runs and the ground could be absolutely perfect for him. Currently, I would be far more concerned if I wanted good ground for a Cheltenham horse. Is he a bad traveller? If you have no particular knowledge then it is probably not worth throwing that one into the ring. He jumps, stays and can quicken. For all we know Cheltenham might be his ideal.
First Lieutenant for some reason seems to have rather hijacked this thread. Not sure why? His only use would be to provide some sort of comparison between Last Instalment and Bobs Worth. I strongly suspect he will only run in the Gold Cup if Last Instalment doesn’t and if he does on all known evidence he isn’t going to win.
I didn’t realise LI had gone as low as 6/1 for the Gold Cup, and I see AP thinks he’s a real player. I’ll be a place-layer if he turns up.
As for FL ‘hijacking the thread’ – his is the only possible formline that would offer LI the current market prominence he has, especially on LI’s form prior to Sunday. Any interpretation of his GC chance rests on one race – Sunday’s, where, imo, the jock dictated it and rode a perfect race.
He’s a lovely honest horse, and a fine jumper, but 6/1 for the Gold Cup on the back of one race?
Anyway, good luck to anyone with fancy prices about LI – the greatest joy of ante-post betting, and I’d be delighted to have some 40s myself!
(I suspect FL’s preference for good ground has increased as he’s got older. If he were mine, I’d save him for Aintree.)
Spot on Joe.
Therefore, although this performance is encouraging (particularly with jumping) and deserves credit for being his best performance yet… Last Instalment needs to make another big step up at Cheltenham. Those with 40/1 or even 16/1 have undoubtedly got a good value bet, but he’s (imo) far too short now, with doubts about soundness, ground and travelling too. Unless there aren’t any other prominent runners (very possible) doubt I’ll be backing him in March.
On the basis of what does he need to step up? A reproduction would put him right in the mix with improvement a fair possibility.
You say the run was ‘encouraging’? Presumably, that’s purposefully disparaging. His first run back was the encouraging one.
Virtually everyone else including the likes of Geraghty, Walsh and McCoy have not been slow to describe the win as ‘impressive’. None of them have a direct connection with the horse. In fact Geraghty is on record as saying Last Instalment is his biggest danger. There are plenty of jockeys who are not worth listening to, Geraghty certainly isn’t one of them. He is clearly in a pretty good position to assess the relative merits of the two horses. I don’t think it is too much of a surprise the horse shortened up yesterday – 5 or 6/1 would seem about right.
Soundness, ground and travelling? As I said above it sounds almost like you are desperate to see the horse beaten.
NRNB covers the possibility of him not turning up.
Soundness hasn’t affected his first two runs
…and the ground could be absolutely perfect for him. Currently, I would be far more concerned if I wanted good ground for a Cheltenham horse.
Is he a bad traveller? If you have no particular knowledge then it is probably not worth throwing that one into the ring.
He jumps, stays and can quicken. For all we know Cheltenham might be his ideal.
First Lieutenant for some reason seems to have rather hijacked this thread. Not sure why? His only use would be to provide some sort of comparison between Last Instalment and Bobs Worth. I strongly suspect he will only run in the Gold Cup if Last Instalment doesn’t and if he does on all known evidence he isn’t going to win.
Certainly not writing off Last Instalment’s chance Stilvi. Just that he’s now available at 8/1 top price NRNB. In my opinion at this point does not have a bigger than 11% chance of winning. I’d back him myself if available @ 16/1+. It’s the type of market Bookmakers may be wary about giving a fair win bet price; because of the place market. Apart from the obvious two he’d be the obvious one for third spot if Cue Card fails to stay. Lots of the others with form to do so are out of form.Value Is Everything(I suspect FL’s preference for good ground has increased as he’s got older. If he were mine, I’d save him for Aintree.)
Certainly would not say FL needs good ground Joe, ran some fine races on soft. But THM is right there is a question mark on real heavy ground.
Value Is EverythingLots of points I could argue with but to be honest it is probably best just to wait and see what happens. I would only say it seems like a considerable amount of effort on your part to be so negative about a horse you have no real interest in from a betting point of view.
Not sure what TAPK’s method of picking winners has got to do with it? You don’t need to be a genius to know course form is useful but clearly it isn’t essential. I doubt very much TAPK’s record at Cheltenham is any better than mine. The obvious difference between TAPK and myself is that I won’t be making a huge song and dance if Last Instalment wins.
The obvious difference between TAPK and myself is that I won’t be making a huge song and dance if Last Instalment wins.
Very true. Made me laugh out loud Stilvi.Value Is EverythingLots of points I could argue with but to be honest it is probably best just to wait and see what happens. I would only say it seems like a considerable amount of effort on your part to be so negative about a horse you have no real interest in from a betting point of view.
It isn’t something that takes a great deal of time Stilvi, most can be done while watching races.
I have positives and negatives on every horse in a race (including favs) and one horse’s ability/character makes a difference to all his rivals chance (value) anyway. I am "interested" in backing LI if the price is right and the only way to know that is to assess him.
Don’t get me wrong Stilvi, imo LI still has the fourth best chance of winning, just not as good a chance as betting suggests. I don’t particularly see it as assessing "negatively" or positively, just honestly.
If someone started a thread about Bobs Worth I might come out with a few negatives on him…
One "negative" I have with Bobs Worth is was he flattered in the Gold Cup? Did Long Run and Sir Des Champs go for home too soon in a truly run race so reducing their chance/finishing position? And did Bobs Worth’s inability to go with them (outpaced) mean he went the optimum pace? ie Was his winning margin more than his true superiority over Sir Des Champs?
Will Bobs Worth’s stamina be as effective if the going is faster this year and/or pace is slower?
However, there are far more positives about Bobs Worth, biggest being able to find what is neccessary. So there is a possibility his true ability is even better than last year’s Gold Cup. Sometimes positives and negatives contradict each other and need to weigh up probabilities. 
Value Is EverythingI notice on the ATR website, Last Instalment is currently available at 33/1 for the Gold Cup with a couple of Irish-based bookmakers, whereas he is only priced between 5/1 and around 9/1 with any other bookmaker. Even allowing for the fact that certain bookmakers may not offer NRNB terms, still this discrepancy seems a bit big to me. Do somebody know something others don’t, about LI’s participation?
I notice on the ATR website, Last Instalment is currently available at 33/1 for the Gold Cup with a couple of Irish-based bookmakers, whereas he is only priced between 5/1 and around 9/1 with any other bookmaker. Even allowing for the fact that certain bookmakers may not offer NRNB terms, still this discrepancy seems a bit big to me. Do somebody know something others don’t, about LI’s participation?
I’d safely ay it’s a small bookie with a lazy P.R man.If you try put it on you wont be getting 33/1 rest assured
I notice on the ATR website, Last Instalment is currently available at 33/1 for the Gold Cup with a couple of Irish-based bookmakers, whereas he is only priced between 5/1 and around 9/1 with any other bookmaker. Even allowing for the fact that certain bookmakers may not offer NRNB terms, still this discrepancy seems a bit big to me. Do somebody know something others don’t, about LI’s participation?
I’d safely ay it’s a small bookie with a lazy P.R man.If you try put it on you wont be getting 33/1 rest assured
It’s Boylesports and Seanie Mac, but when you go to the bookmaker sites it shows 6/1. Not aware Boylesports oddschecker price has been anything other than 6/1.
Do Boylesports and Seanie Mac share prices? They have exactly the same prices for every runner.
No change on exchanges so it’s obviously a mistake.
Value Is EverythingNot sure what TAPK’s method of picking winners has got to do with it? You don’t need to be a genius to know course form is useful but clearly it isn’t essential. I doubt very much TAPK’s record at Cheltenham is any better than mine. The obvious difference between TAPK and myself is that I won’t be making a huge song and dance if Last Instalment wins.
There will be no Song and Dance Stilvi as
Last Instalment
has No chance of winning a Cheltenham Gold cup!
There will be no Song and Dance Stilvi as
Last Instalment
has No chance of winning a Cheltenham Gold cup!
I said earlier in this thread:-
"Mind you, Last Instalment at 7/1 makes about as much appeal as an excrement sandwich as far as I am concerned."
Apparently, holding this opinion meant I was full of BS.
No song, no dance, just an opinion based on 30 years of following the sport.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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