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First Lieutenant continues to disappoint as a horse to bet on. Today was the fourteenth time he has been beaten as either first or second favourite in twenty four outings over jumps.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
First Lieutenant continues to disappoint as a horse to bet on. Today was the fourteenth time he has been beaten as either first or second favourite in twenty four outings over jumps.
Saves his best for a spring day in March Steve,if he goes for Gold there’s only ‘Bob’ to beat him.Paddy Power pushed him out to 16/1 today and thats the e/w bet of the race imo.
A fine ride indeed on LI, which I think might not have been taken fully into account in the post-race reaction, especially by the bookmakers.
I suspect he is not quite as good as he looked today.
That’s based on what exactly?
Are you seriously suggesting he somehow ‘pinched’ the race? He quickened away from a relatively bunched field who were not getting any closer at the end. It was a most impressive performance and his fragility and soft-ground requirement are the only reasons why he isn’t an even shorter price for the Gold Cup.
Very interested in this list of top horses Fenton has failed to get to the Festival.
Very interested in this list of top horses Fenton has failed to get to the Festival.
Dunguib
, Dunguib and dunguib!
A fine ride indeed on LI, which I think might not have been taken fully into account in the post-race reaction, especially by the bookmakers.
I suspect he is not quite as good as he looked today.
That’s based on what exactly?
Are you seriously suggesting he somehow ‘pinched’ the race? He quickened away from a relatively bunched field who were not getting any closer at the end. It was a most impressive performance and his fragility and soft-ground requirement are the only reasons why he isn’t an even shorter price for the Gold Cup.
It’s based on what all my comments about races are – my reading of the race. I’ve said before, we all read them differently, and back our judgement.
I don’t think he ‘pinched’ the race. I think he gave the horse a very fine ride by getting in a lovely rhythm, waiting in front superbly by taking around a length out of the field at most fences but then immediately dropping back into his rhythm so he expended little energy while the others had to make up the ground they were losing at fences.
When a horse is travelling and jumping so well – and is relatively unfancied – many would have pushed on a fair bit sooner. O’Connell went at exactly the right time, to my eye: much sooner or later and he would not have won so impressively.
Also, I suspect those behind are probably not as good as they are perceived to be in some quarters. Add to that the fact that Cooper went for FL, LI’s past form does not seem to me to be all that great, and since moving to Ireland he’s never raced outside it, plus, as you mention, he’s fragile and probably ground dependent. I think 10/1 is very skinny.
From memory of horses that he has targeted at Cheltenham, Fenton’s high-profile failures and breakdowns have included Dunguib, Last Installment, one-time ‘handicap plunge horse’ Sher Beau, colossal underachiever Hairy Molly and former ante-post favourite Pineau De Re.
That’s just about every decent horse he has ever had.
I’m fairly sure some of those horses may have made it to Cheltenham
Also,I consider Hairy Molly to have somewhat over achieved and I had money on her on that day.
I take your point about break downs but not sure it’s so different from many other trainers, maybe.
SHL
I bet they wished they sold Dunguib when they had the chance.
Rumours were rife that Fist offered 1,000,000,000,000 thai baht for him…..Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Watching the race again, his jumping was even more impressive; accelerating into his fences, and getting quickly away, taking lengths out of his field each time. His long absence is a worry, as is the uncertainty about good ground, but it will be fascinating to watch if he makes it.
Also, I suspect those behind are probably not as good as they are perceived to be in some quarters. Add to that the fact that Cooper went for FL, LI’s past form does not seem to me to be all that great, and since moving to Ireland he’s never raced outside it, plus, as you mention, he’s fragile and probably ground dependent. I think 10/1 is very skinny.
I don’t think anyone is raving about the horses in behind but they are a fair summary of what is around and he did give them quite a beating. Not a massively different bunch to what Bob’s Worth had seen off, arguably less impressively.
The beauty of the ride was in making the most of the horses jumping and showing no signs of panic when the field were close behind. Personally, I don’t think it would have particularly mattered when he made the race winning move, he would still have won by daylight. You could understand given that the horse was on the comeback trail that the jockey didn’t want to press on too early but I strongly suspect in an ideal world a stiffer test of stamina would suit him even better. The drift in the market might also suggest there is more improvement to come.
I wouldn’t read anything into Cooper’s choice as he probably made the decision based on his previous association with First Lieutenant and there was also the dreaded ‘bounce’ factor to consider. Do you think he would make the same mistake again?
Bob’s Worth remains the one to beat but if Last Instalment turns up in similar shape I will be surprised if he is not staying on with a little more gusto than last year’s rivals who basically were reduced to a standstill.
First Lieutenant continues to disappoint as a horse to bet on. Today was the fourteenth time he has been beaten as either first or second favourite in twenty four outings over jumps.
Saves his best for a spring day in March Steve,if he goes for Gold there’s only ‘Bob’ to beat him.Paddy Power pushed him out to 16/1 today and thats the e/w bet of the race imo.
16/1 is decent each-way Gord but I don’t think he wins often enough to see him collecting the thick end of the bet. Mind you, Last Instalment at 7/1 makes about as much appeal as an excrement sandwich as far as I am concerned.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was surprised to hear connections expressing doubts about the possible better ground at Chelt.
Last Instalments form does not scream ‘Mudlark’ to me.
I was surprised to hear connections expressing doubts about the possible better ground at Chelt.
Last Instalments form does not scream ‘Mudlark’ to me.
While his form may not scream mudlark I would think connections will want to avoid good ground in order to protect the horse’s tendons.
All interviews at the track after the win, indicated that he wouldn’t be running if the description of the ground was good because of his legs. Don’t think there was too much planning for Cheltenham going on, just happy that he had come back to win this race.
This morning I was thumbing through this week’s Weekender and stumbled over Tom Segal’s page.
The vast majority was taken up with Tom pleading for Al Ferof to run in the Gold Cup.
The filler has Tom showing great concern for Last Instalment even suggesting that the horse shouldn’t run in the Gold Cup if the ground is good. That must be news to connections and everyone else who has backed him NRNB at big prices!
Of course Tom has already put up Al Ferof for the Gold Cup and missed all the 40/1 NRNB value in Last Instalment. Obviously, the great man would never stoop so low but unfortunately, in general you can make yourself look very foolish/desperate trying to convince yourself you haven’t made a mistake.
I too had backed Al Ferof for the Gold Cup, partly on the same reasoning as TS – the way he won his PP in that ground, there’s no way he doesn’t stay that Newbury trip on Saturday. But I suspect the horse simply has not come back from injury with the same engine/appetite, and I’d now be wary of backing him in any race.
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