- This topic has 17 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 11 years ago by
.
- Posts
Ladbrokes have opened a book on the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles on Thursday next week and the field looks potentially decent if all the quoted horses turn up.
Don Cossack Evs
Champagne Fever 2/1
Ballycasey 9/2
Twinlight 6/1
Texas Jack 8/1
Djakadam 12/1
Turban 12/1
Rathlin 20/1
Make A Track 25/1
Rubi Light 25/1
Maggio 50/1
Smokey Joe Joe 100/1
The trip is two and a half miles and the ground is currently given as soft.My first thought was whether Don Cossack should be half the odds of Champagne Fever, given that no winners have come out of Don Cossack’s last two race and Champagne Fever competed in the King George, where it seemed clear he didn’t last home at the trip.
With five of those entered being from the Willie Mullins yard it seems key to know how many he will actually run and which ones they will be.
Djakadam obviously has a lot to prove now after a pitiful effort in the Hennessey, although the drop in trip might help him.
Turban has an alternative engagement at Punchestown and with two falls from his last three starts he makes no appeal at the same 12/1 odds as Djakadam.
Ballycasey was poor behind stablemate Twinlight last time and, beaten 28 lengths, he doesn’t make a lot of appeal at 9/2, with the same horse in the list again and available at 6/1. The big factor with Twinlight though is the trip, as most of his good form is at around two miles.
Texas Jack won this race last year and has claimed Lord Windermere’s scalp in the past. He seems to have a bit to find with Don Cossack on their last run, where both Boston Bob and Lord Windermere were placed ahead of him before their slightly disappointing efforts in the Lexus. Should Texas Jack be 8 times the price of Don Cossack? will be the question on the lips of his fans.
Don Cossack is a horse I thought might make up into a dark one for the Gold Cup at 33/1, if connections are bold enough to go that route with him. I suppose a lot will hinge on what turns up next week and how he copes with them.
I think the favourite is pretty short at Evens here and Champagne Fever at 2/1 surely reflects there is doubt about his participation to some extent. If the field turned up as above, I think I would back the King George 4th back down in trip, with Texas Jack probably the each-way value at 8/1 as the defending champion.
I hope it’s a competitive race and good luck to anyone punting in it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My first impression when looking at the entries is that a lot of these won’t turn up, and if one knew what was actually going to run, one could put oneself in a good position before the final decs.
Out of Champagne Fever, Ballycasey, Djakadam and Twinlight I’m guessing only one will run. Don Cossack is not a certain runner himself.
I haven’t heard anything but as the defending champion you’d imagine connections of Texas Jack would like to go here again, and he looks the best value at 8/1, as you’ve already said David. The race could cut up very badly and that’s a very tempting price for a horse that could actually go off favourite if Don Cossack and Champagne Fever give this miss, which is a distinct possibility.
I backed him in the John Durkan but he ran like a horse in need of the run. He was hampered by the fallers and then raced with far too much daylight most of the way, only fading after the last.
One of the early surprises I had with the race was that Champagne Fever was in the field. Don Cossack I sort of expected but not Champagne Fever.
I decided after a few hours of thinking that Texas Jack was worth a bet at 8/1. You would think he has less lofty targets in his sights than the big names here, and winning this again would be a decent feather in his cap.
8/1 each way Texas Jack (1/5th odds 1-2-3)
and hope the 1st two in the betting swerve the race.
Jack The Lad or Jack S**t? is then the question
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Don Cossack confirmed by Elliott:
Don Cossack confirmed by Elliott:
Could have done without him turning up but it adds quality to the race. The stable must have heard about my 25p each-way on Texas Jack and decided to run Don Cossack for spite
Djakadam is favourite for The Boylesports Chase three days after this race, so perhaps that is where he is headed and Twinlight is entered in Sprinter Sacre’s race the day before that.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll give you the bad news first David: both Don Cossack and Champagne Fever have been declared.
The good news is that Texas Jack and Smokey Joe Joe are the only other runners
I’ll give you the bad news first David: both Don Cossack and Champagne Fever have been declared.
The good news is that Texas Jack and Smokey Joe Joe are the only other runners
Yes, I could have done with one of the big two coming out Tommy but barring accidents I should make a little bit of money out of it and the key to the race was always going to be that a good few would be dropping out of it.
Looks a two horse race and I’d take Champagne Fever at the odds in a race that should give us a line on Lord Windermere compared to the King George form.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think Texas Jack should give Don Cossack a real race tomorrow, was damn all between them in the Durkan and he has a two pound pull in the weights.
Champagne Fever is still pretty unexposed at this trip and tomorrow will tell us a lot about his Cheltenham target.
That would have been very tight if he had stayed on his feet. Cossack is a real improver this year.
SHL
Just call me Mr Lucky. I thought Texas Jack was booked for 4th after an abysmal effort but Champagne Fever and then the other faller got me out of trouble.
My feeling was that Don Cossack would have won anyway. Champagne Fever looks like he needs to dominate and his stamina is perhaps dubious, even at this trip, when running in better company. The times he has won at the trip have been when warm favourite and I am slightly concerned about him as a betting proposition now.
I cannot recall one stage of today’s race where Texas Jack was actually asked to go and race by his jockey, he seemed to sit motionless and made no effort to keep pace with the first two as they pressed on. A bad mistake left him behind the rank outsider but even then the jockey seemed unconcerned about making an effort to get back into the race.
I thought it was a pathetic effort from Texas Jack and I won’t be on him again with the proverbial barge pole. Just happy to get out of jail with him today.
I am a bit concerned about what the form was worth today, Don Cossack came under quite a bit of pressure and if he had won with Champagne Fever completing, you feel it wouldn’t have been by very far. I suspect he may go off short next time and not be actual value at the odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought Champagne Fever might have held him off. But Don Cossack is clearly a very good horse and very little between them in any case.
I thought Champagne Fever might have held him off.
But Don Cossack is clearly a very good horse and very little between them in any case.
Maybe so. The winning trainer is probably biased but he said the following afterwards:-
"It’s a shame he fell as you don’t know what would have happened, but Bryan thought he had him covered and I was standing at the last (fence) and I thought we had, but you never know and you have to jump."
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Texas Jack ran an absolute stinker and very fortunate to collect second prize.
On the other two, I was surprised at the general reaction on Twitter that Don Cossack was going the better of the pair and would have won regardless of Champagne Fever falling at the last.
I thought Champagne Fever was still going alright and there would have been very little between them. If forced I’d say Don Cossack would probably have just edged it but I’d only be guessing.
Both horses should improve for better ground and both should improve in terms of being spot on too. Champagne Fever only ran three weeks ago and is probably better fresh, while I’m sure Elliott has his eyes firmly on Cheltenham with his horse.
Whether Champagne Fever drops to two miles probably depends on Sprinter Sacre’s well-being, but I wouldn’t oppose him in the Ryanair. He has a great course record and while he is vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot, I’d say Walsh will aim to get everything racing from further out than he did in the Arkle last year.
He’s twice the price of Don Cossack for the Ryanair now and I can only assume that’s because there’s a chance he’ll drop back to two miles. I could see Champagne taking lengths out of Don Cossack and Dynaste at Cheltenham and wouldn’t look past him for the Ryanair if that’s where he goes.
I thought Champagne Fever was starting to get the upper hand when he fell, but there wouldn’t have been much between them. Don Cossack was giving him 2lbs so arguably comes out on top no matter what.
Either way, they’re both top notch animals. They’ve achieved much more than Dynaste has this season.
I think it’s a bit harsh to say Champagne Fever has done more than Dynaste this season.
If you take Silviniaco Conti out of the picture, Dynaste’s last three runs would have read:-
Won Betfred Bowl Aintree, 2nd Betfred Chase Haydock and Won King George Kempton.
He beat Champagne Fever at Kempton and even allowing for the trip we know that Dynaste put up a much better show in the Ryanair last year than he did at Kempton in the King George. For me there’s a lot to like about that.
If we look at Champagne Fever he won a grade two at odds on, faded in the King George and fell in an effective match race against Don Cossack. Looking at Champagne Fever’s career overall, he’s been a bit disappointing for me since making all and holding off the slightly dubious battler My Tent Or Yours at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novices.
The off-putting thing for me with Champagne Fever is that he’s now been beaten favourite seven times in his career from seventeen starts, four times at odds-on. He’s only won twice over the bigger obstacles, a beginners chase and a grade two at odds on.
Dynaste, in comparison, has won five chases, two at grade one and two at grade two, and, as said earlier, without Silviniaco Conti he would have won more than that.
I agree that Champagne Fever’s price compared to Don Cossack looks big but he could switch to 2 miles as Tommy says. For my money Don Cossack is too short to be the same price as the defending Ryanair Champion, who has just put in a better effort in the King George than he did the previous year. I think 5/1 is a good enough bet for Dynaste and I’ll be on him expecting to collect.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I read that Ruby Walsh said Champagne Fever’s fall didn’t matter, as he was sure Don Cossack had him covered anyway. Ruby felt the horse never travelled as well, or jumped as well, as he did in The King George and feels the horse only really does his best when fresh.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I read that Ruby Walsh said Champagne Fever’s fall didn’t matter, as he was sure Don Cossack had him covered anyway. Ruby felt the horse never travelled as well, or jumped as well, as he did in The King George and feels the horse only really does his best when fresh.
I’d say I read the same quote, but thought he said he thought Don Cossack was coming with a strong run. Never said he was sure the Don had him beaten as far as I remember, just implied it.
Anyway, I’d expect Champagne Fever to reverse the form if they meet in the Ryanair. I could be guilty of underestimating Don Cossack but I’m not sure he’s made the giant strides this season that some pundits believe. Champagne Fever’s Cheltenham record is nearly impeccable and he has left disappointing winter efforts behind him on each of the last three seasons.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.