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Yeah, fortunately I had this anticipation before the race today, as you can read in Joni’s thread:
Battaash 50€ (a currency the Brits refuse
) @ 6/1Mabs Cross 8-1
Battaash 6-1Mabs lost a shoe today so performance can be upgraded. Battaash looked good though, we will see if he backs it up.
The rain will improve blue points chances even further
His 6f stamina will help him surely
If this race was run over Goodwood’s fast 5f I would not be worried about soft ground for Battaash; but Ascot is a far stiffer 5f and the combination of track and ground could be against him even if appearing to settle a bit easier on reappearance. Fingers crossed it’ll be a fair fight. If it is fair then Battaash will win.
Value Is EverythingBlue point
And at bigger odds Alpha Delphini interests me. He is better than ever and if there’s some cut on the ground it could be a cracking EW bet. 25/1
Agreed ginger exactly how I see it now
Think the softer ground and stiffer track gives blue point the edge
Mabs Cross is a supreme each way bet at 9s with the rain that has fallen.
This is what she wants – fast pace over a stiff 5F on ground with a bit of juice in it.
I’ve had a few quid a while back on the two favourites just to make a book on the race. Just to lay them off on the day when they shorten.
But I’ve actually found a bet I like in this now.
That horse is the American raider Imprimis. Stumbled last time and had to go all the way round the outside (in a sprint that’s no mean feat) and showed a good cruising speed to get up. The horse he beat that day was Bound For Knowhere who I had each way at 20s when 3rd at ascot in the 6f race last year. So the form isn’t too bad. And his attitude to get up despite the stumble at the start is a very big plus for me. Happy to back him each way.
Imprimis each way @ 12/1
Going to back all my TTF horses this week so Blue Point to defy his draw and win and Fairyland EW…hopefully there could be a pace burn up on her side and she could get a tow if she can stay in touch. (more hope than expectation for her!)
I’m on Blue Point @ 6/1 antipost here, but just heard some fascinating analysis on The Morning Line about Battaash, 6 out of 8 wins have come when he is drawn on the wide outside. The Theory being, which is backed up that he misses the kick when horses are not either side of him and thus settles a bit better into the race. Today where is he drawn? Wide outside!
I backed Battaash last year against Blue point and this year its the other way around! However Battaash seems to be drifting slightly to a more backable price, so probably a saver and more coming for me.
Mabs Cross and Imprimis are interesting, but this for me is a 2 horse race again.
From my preview:
3:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1)
An absolute belter of a sprint to saviour now as the 1-2-3 from last year go head to head in a rematch to be the fastest sprinter in European racing. Either winning would be a fine result for me antepost but the nod on the day goes to BATTAASH (9/4) who is undoubtedly the best on his day. His temperament can be questioned and he has boiled over here previously. If handling the preliminaries, expect him to shorten dramatically before the race starts. He was second last year but was taken on for the lead early on and if settling better here, can get the revenge a horse of hi nature deserves. He is definitely a horse deserving of winning this huge prize as his talent is unquestionable. He did look at his brilliant best in his warm-up for this at Haydock in the Temple Stakes and is the one to beat. Blue Point bids to defend his crown and has had a productive winter in Dubai with a hat-trick of wins – the latter being a Group 1. If Battaash cannot settle early, Blue Point will look to pounce late and the stiff finish at the track will play to his strength of being able to stay further. Mabs Cross was third last year and the admirable filly never runs a bad race. She’s improved incredibly in the last year and a half but may lack the class of the big two. She could be the bet in the ‘without the big two’ market if that takes your fancy but will flash home late so might need luck in running. Imprimis goes for America and the international expert on At The Races reckons he’s the one for forecasts and tricasts with the big two and is a big fan of his. I have had a small play on this angle (forecasts and tricasts with Battash and Blue Point) as I was impressed in his win last time despite going wide as well as missing the break a fraction. He could certainly outrun his price. The rest are all held on form but Equilateral has often shaped like he has better to come and could run on for a place if Imprimis disappoints and Mabs Cross doesn’t get the clear passage she will need.On good ground I’d have been very confident of Battaash winning here, it’s not that he doesn’t act on a soft surface; just the combination of soft surface and Ascot’s stiff 5h may not quite play to his strengths. Greater problem might now be form of the yard. This has been a much better start to the season than Charlie Hills had in 2018 and in fantastic form when Battaash reappeared at Haydock (not just the Irish Guineas but many more winners). However, strike rate dropped significantly in recent weeks. Had Hills been in the same form I’d be storming in @ 9/4. Just made him the saver here.
Blue Point is not as good a sprinter as Battaash – only wins when Battaash is below his best. But Ascot’s stiff 5f suits him and the other Charlie is in much better form. Blue Point is also consistent. It’s just that the betting gap between him and Mabs Cross is wider than I believe it should be. Two lengths between them in this last year and the Dodds mare has probably improved a bit since. Didn’t have the pace to challenge a top form Battaash at Haydock, but this is a stiffer course. She’s my biggest bet @ 9/1, with another part saver on Blue Point (B and BP combined surely have a better than 60% chance). My other main bet is Equilateral. I know, the same stable form stuff applies to him as it does stable mate Battaash. But sometimes price is just too big. Battaash, Blue Point and Mabs Cross are so much ahead of the rest. Should imo be 25/1+ all other runners with one exception. Equilateral is the only one I can see of the others with any chance of improving enough to challenge (thought about laying Sergai Prokofiev). Second to Mabs Cross who was giving a lot of weight in the Palace House. But that was a career best (progressing) and Equilateral went through the race like the winner; going too fast too soon (imo better than distances suggest). Around 25/1 worth taking a chance.Value Is EverythingThink there has been just a little light rain this morning. The clerk was talking about the possibility of changing to GF by the off if no more rain. That seems unlikely now, but should be no worse than good unless the heavens suddenly open I believe. I live not too far and its been very light drizzle type rain so far
Ha, and just as a write that, its raining fairly heavily here now! Ah the bloody british weather!!
) @ 6/1
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