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Stats up to 2017 (not including Lady Aurelia)
15/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Aged 4 or older
13/15 – Had won a Group race before
11/15 – Finished first or second last time out
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Won by a non-UK based trained horse
8/15 – Favourites placed
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before (5 had won at the track)
6/15 – Ran at either Flemington (3) or Chantilly (3) last time out
5/15 – Favourites that finished third
3/15 – Won by an Australian-trained horse
2/15 – Winning favourites
A horse from stalls 9, 11 & 14 has been placed in 8 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 9/1I struggled here from a betting perspective but in the end took a very simplistic point of view; if I had to stake my life on it who would I plump for?
So… Come on Battaash!
Battaash 5/2
I was on Battaash a long time ago at 4/1 but I am very concerned about Lady Aurelia, who I have been on in the last two Royal Ascots.
I was lucky enough to have been watching ATR the day Lady Aurelia first set foot on a racecourse and was wowed at how fast she was, fizzing out of the stalls and clearing away in a very fast time. Her low and quick action was as fast as I have ever seen and I bet her as soon as odds became available for the Queen Mary at Ascot.
Come Ascot, the rains came and my confidence was dented but the public couldn’t get enough of her and she slaughtered her field. Impressive last season but hasn’t been invulnerable with three defeats and 13/8 is a bit short for me and I’ll go solo with Battaash in the hope he is the finished article at four and proves stronger than the speedy Ward inmate. It looks to lie between the two to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
From my preview (DLAP):
‘3:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1)
LADY AURELIA (15/8) won this in tremendous fashion last year for Wesley Ward. I have her at 7/2 here but am not as confident in her as I was last year. She clearly relishes Ascot and has her ground again. She romped home in the 2016 Queen Mary so goes in search of a Royal Ascot hat-trick. Her main rival in the betting is the Prix De L’Abbaye winner Battaash who, unlike Lady A, won on his reappearance despite missing the start. He’s a very classy horse in his own right but has temperament issues. In both his two year old race here and in the Nunthorpe at York last season, he boiled over massively beforehand. I’ll be watching him in the parade ring before the race to see if he can keep his cool. He doesn’t appear to enjoy the large crowds and the slow canter to the start on the big occasion. If keeping calm, he will surely run a massive race. Kachy has shown some flashy form whilst Blue Point is surely better over six furlongs. Mabs Cross is improving but will need to step up again to go well in this company. Washington DC will finish the race strongly and could run into a place. Overall, it’s a truly brilliant race and the head to head of Lady Aurelia against Battaash could turn out to be the race of the entire week.’Thought I would be backing the best sprinter in the World, indeed the best sprinter for some time – Battaash. However, Lady Aurelia isn’t that far behind him and everyone knows Battaash has temperament issues, lost the Nunthorpe before the race… And more importantly the two trainers are in contrasting form. Ward – as he is always is coming in to this week – in great form, 5 winners in his last 10 runners. Hills has had a couple who’ve gone close in his last week or so, but is 0 from 10 with some last/running poorly; looking further back it’s 1 in 50+ in June. Now, I’ve noticed over the years older horses – especially geldings – aren’t as hit by viruses etc but even so it has to be a negative. Lady Aurelia didn’t run to her best last time and of course there’s a possibility she hasn’t trained on, but Ward wasn’t in the form he is now. Anyone who knows me knows am not a fan of Ward – his use of/breaking rules on Clenbuterol – I’ll be cheering on Battaash, especially as his lad Big Bob is someone I used to chat to at the races. But betting is betting, money is money. Battaash is the better horse, but Lady A is the more likely to show her form, especially with her Royal Ascot record. Other runners only have a chance if the pair underperform. Chance they’ll go too quick too soon. However, I’ve backed Lady A with a saver on B.
Value Is EverythingI think Battaash looks likely to take this if he doesn’t boil over, as he has
done, at the start. He’ll probably go off about 5/2, but I think there is value
to be had with Washington DC at 16/1. He’s run
well in some very good races and although his strike rate perhaps should have been
better, he ran a cracker last time out when going down a head to Battaash in the
Temple Stakes. I think he will be in the frame at the very least.COuldnt watch the race as I’m at work but had £200 on battaash, was Crowley that bad?
He said afterwards that he didn’t expect Battaash to break so well, that he took two lengths out of the rest of the field and that he let the horse go his own pace because he’s not the type you can pull back. He wanted something to give him a lead but it didn’t happen.
Blue Point and Mabs Cross deserve credit for improving, the performance is probably up to an average renewal; but Battaash is a lot better if settling. Instead of just disputing it Crowley seemed to move Battaash to the front in a race already being run at a strong pace.
Matt Chapman stupid in criticising Lady A’s jockey. He was going the correct speed – had he gone to challenge Crowley sooner would’ve been going too quick – beaten sooner. Just a filly not at her best. Has she trained on from 3 to 4? Not as big as some sprinters. Matt is a poor judge of pace.
Value Is EverythingTHat sounds fair enough, would agree that he’s not a horse you want to be making take a pull so probably played on the safe side by letting the horse do his own thing, did the horse sweat pre race or anything maybe overexherted himself in the first half of the race?
Oh Crowley sent the horse to the front? Had assumed it broke first and was already in the lead after 50 yards. Sounds like Crowley thought he was on a horse 10lengths better than the rest.
The horse broke to lead, but Crowley didn’t do anything to try and steady the pace down.
SOunds rather amateurish, top jockeys should be able to read pace, amazing how many ‘top’ jockeys have no idea of their mounts optimum speed mid race
Battaash broke well and disputed the lead for a while – which is fair enough in a strongly run race, Ben. Only seen it a couple of times, so could be wrong – but then it seemed Crowley let him go – a surge to the front to be a couple of lengths clear of the field by around halfway (too fast too soon). Horse didn’t use its speed/ability equally and had nothing left in the last half furlong. You could blame the horse, but imo wasn’t helped by the jockey.
Value Is EverythingYeah horses make mistakes as it’s in their dna to want to be at the front of the pack, it’s the jockeys job to guide/help the horse use its energy as efficiently as possible – sounds like Crowley failed to do this as well as he should have in a race of that stature/nature. Jockey error IMO, may change my opinion after watching it but I trust you chaps enough to be good enough judges!!
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