- This topic has 56 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
three year olds have a good record in this race.Jim’s horse just won the Irish Derby so cannot be ignored.
This race looks pretty simple to me. It depends entirely on whether CDA retains his ability. If he does, he wins – simple as that. His trainer seems to think he is better than ever and with the ground riding good and with plenty of rain forecast tomorrow morning I will be filling my boots.
He’ll probably be well backed now that his "training in public" seasonal debut, where his trainer reported him as being only 60% fit, is out of the way. He could well hose up tomorrow but I worry that a 7 year old has never won the race and only one 6 year old, Swain, has ever won the race. With Ektihaam, Universal and Trading Leather all likely to serve it up to the fav they will be taking no prisoners tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This race looks pretty simple to me.
It depends entirely on whether CDA retains his ability. If he does, he wins
– simple as that. His trainer seems to think he is better than ever and with the ground riding good and with plenty of rain forecast tomorrow morning I will be filling my boots.
Agree with that 100 percent!
This race looks pretty simple to me. It depends entirely on whether CDA retains his ability. If he does, he wins – simple as that. His trainer seems to think he is better than ever and with the ground riding good and with plenty of rain forecast tomorrow morning I will be filling my boots.
He’ll probably be well backed now that his "training in public" seasonal debut, where his trainer reported him as being only 60% fit, is out of the way. He could well hose up tomorrow but I worry that a 7 year old has never won the race and only one 6 year old, Swain, has ever won the race. With Ektihaam, Universal and Trading Leather all likely to serve it up to the fav they will be taking no prisoners tomorrow.
How many 7 year olds have RUN in the race Stevie? Times are a bit different now no? More horses staying in training.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I knew full well before I posted that you would raise this question Joni. Even outside the really oldies, not many 5yos have won the race either. It is mostly a 3 and 4yo’s race.
You
may
well be right that times are changing but any good scientist will tell you that, until the stats are on the board to prove your theory, it remains only a theory. If we have this same conversation in 10 years time and reflect on a couple of seven year olds and three six year olds having lifted the prize, I will raise my hat in acknowledgement of your foresight.
It’s easy enough to pick Cirrus Des Aigles as the class act, and opening the papers tomorrow we will see a mix of "Good thing, get in there" and "Too short, I’m way behind in the table, and I’m napping this in the hope that the favourite falls flat on his paps", as the tips for this race.
I’ll take the Don Quixote approach and tilt at the windmill in Cirrus Des Aigles, whose name seems to translate as "Flexible appendage of eagles" and hope I can claw some money out of the bookies.
Yours in Sport. David
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just a note:
Surely a bigger worry for followers of the favorite is trainer form! Mme Corine Barande Barbe is 78 without a win, whilst it´s fair to say she does´t have many like Cirrus in her stables her stats still have to be a big worry, 27 runners in the past 30 days with 2 placed!
On the basis that Sir Michael Stoute is not prone to supplementing his horses for big races for the grand sum of £75,000 ( Kris Kin being the last other one prior to The Derby ), as Morning Line’s Jim McGrath pointed out – and that CDA may not be the force of old, or as effective on this surface as he is on soft, I have therefore backed Hillstar in the hope that the colt has improved sufficiently to win this race.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Timeform’s man on ATR today agrees that Cirrus Des Aigles will take all the beating. Their ratings put him 11 pounds clear of Ektihaam at 142 to 131. The ratings after then are much closer together trailing back to Hillstar on 125 as the lowest rated in the field. We were informed that the average King George winner rating with Timeform is 138
Gina Bryce questioned whether Cirrus Des Aigles retains all his ability given his age and a modest first time effort but this was countered with the fact that the horse always needs his first run of the season. The Timeform team are, according to today’s representative, of the opinion that Cirrus Des Aigles should be an odds on shot.
Obviously I strongly fear the favourite but 8 of his 11 wins have been over 10f and 3 over 12f, only one of which was group 1 company.
In addition, for all that some people say they don’t buy into the ground being a key factor for him, he has never won on going faster than good, which he has done twice, with 9 of his wins having soft in the going description.
He’s rated the best horse in the world and he has a fabulous collection of prize money after his name. Good luck to him, as anything he does magnifies the legend of Frankel.
If I had to lay a horse it would be Trading Leather. Looking back at The Irish Derby his win was gritty but dour and the English Derby form looks to have more mince in it than a value range lasagne. The commentator on Mars’ race last night probably had it spot on when he said that the best horse in this year’s Epsom Derby was the one that finished last.
You are right Steve,
Cirrus Des Aigles
has not
officially
won on a firm surface. But the 2011 Champion Stakes win broke the Course Record and was over 3 seconds faster than standard. On the same day Dancing Rain also put up a time 2.71 secs fast (so not an isolated time). Course records are always achieved on TRULY "fast" (firmish) ground. Timeform’s ground assessment was good-firm and a performance right up to Cirrus Des Aigle’s best form. There’s also Dubai to consider, beating St Nicholas Abbey at 12f on officially good ground. As the Timeform man pointed out yesterday – Dubai ground is usually pretty firm.
Cirrus Des Aigles has a rounded action and it can be argued is more consistent on soft, but he
does
act on true good-firm.
I would be more concerned with age. Many horses deteriorate on the flat when 7+ years old. Tony’s point about trainer form is a very good one. Must be a concern, though older horses tend to be less suseptible to trainer form/viruses.
I disagree with Timeform.
Cirrus Des Aigles should not be odds-on, but should be shorter than he is now. As Timeform ratings indicate, will not need to be at his best to win. I’ve had a saver bet.Hillstar
may have the worst Timeform rating, but is not that far behind the other runners, has a good write up and improving fast. He’s my biggest bet, but would win most if
Universal
wins. Johnston is always in good form this time of year. Universal is genuine and difficult to know how much he has in hand, finding plenty. Seemingly a similar type of horse to Ektihaam yet is available @ over twice the price. As long as the two front runners don’t take each other on might surprise a few.
My 100% book:
Cirrus Des Aigles 5/4
, Trading Leather 13/2,
Hillstar 13/2
, Novellist 8/1, Ektihaam 12/1,
Universal 15/1
, Red Cadeaux 40/1, Very Nice Name 40/1.
Value Is EverythingA deeply impressive performance from Novellist and surely a worth Arc favourite after that showing. Ektihaam and Universal set it up at what looked a suicidal lick in a massive track record time. Not surprisingly they couldn’t keep it up but Ektihaam faded very disappointly today.
Cirrus Des Aigles? What can you say? I thought his age, trip and the firmish ground were against him and he never looked like winning. A timely reminder that Timeform ratings and claims of being the best horse in the world are no guarantee of victory, in fact their lowest rated two filled second and third, their top rated (by some way) out of the frame and their second rated was stone last.
Good efforts from Trading Leather and Hillstar, the former loving the fast conditions. Harlem Globetrotter Red Cadeaux showed it’s easier netting big money than the big name races.
Serious looking horse Novellist on today’s evidence.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A deeply impressive performance from Novellist and surely a worth Arc favourite after that showing. Ektihaam and Universal set it up at what looked a suicidal lick in a massive track record time. Not surprisingly they couldn’t keep it up but Ektihaam faded very disappointly today.
Cirrus Des Aigles? What can you say? I thought his age, trip and the firmish ground were against him and he never looked like winning. A timely reminder that Timeform ratings and claims of being the best horse in the world are no guarantee of victory, in fact their lowest rated two filled second and third, their top rated (by some way) out of the frame and their second rated was stone last.
Good efforts from Trading Leather and Hillstar, the former loving the fast conditions. Harlem Globetrotter Red Cadeaux showed it’s easier netting big money than the big name races.
Serious looking horse Novellist on today’s evidence.
Fair play to you Steve. I very nearly waded into CDA at 7/4 today. If I’m totally honest I thought it possibly the bet of the season -although I had expected rain before racing this morning. Luckily I decided against a bet given the state of the ground. In the end though I don’t think the ground beat the horse so much as fitness and perhaps age. I still think that at his best, and on a yielding surface, none of those horses get near him.
Having said that I agree that the winner looked a very good horse and justifies his position as favourite for the Arc.
It will be interesting to see if the French gelding comes back to contest the Juddmonte at York.
I have never seen a horse run backwards as fast as Ektihaam today, he went from 1st to last in a matter of strides no wonder why Paul went to York. I hear William Hill have given security Sid back his day job.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Yes, painful though it is to admit, but Stevie C got it right when he said that age could be a factor with CDA. I can’t see how the result would have been too much different even with rain. The old horse looks to have lost his zip.
A very impressive winner nonetheless and certainly comes into the reckoning for the Arc as he is clearly not ground dependent.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
You might imagine that I´m very proud over this success!
After 60 years of disappointing runs of German-trained horses in that very race now they have done it 2 years running at Ascot.
And now German-trained (and bred) horses hold the track-records in the Arc (Danedream) and the KGVII&QE – unbelievable.
Be assured: Novellist is even better on softish going.
You might imagine that I´m very proud over this success!
After 60 years of disappointing runs of German-trained horses in that very race now they have done it 2 years running at Ascot.
And now German-trained (and bred) horses hold the track-records in the Arc (Danedream) and the KGVII&QE – unbelievable.
Be assured: Novellist is even better on softish going.
A great achievement for the trainer indeed. I must admit to ruling out Novellist because I thought he would be better off on soft ground. A few minutes before the race and the trainer tells us that, although the horse is better with a bit of cut in the ground, the fast going is not a problem because he is such a good mover. It’s one of those "Oh no, it too late" moments.
Ektihaam ran terribly, even allowing for the fact that he got caught up in a duel that always looked like it would end in tears for one or both of the protagonists, and he looked like he wasn’t even listed class today, far less Group 1. I expect his sights to be lowered next time.
Our old pal Mukhadram deservedly got his head in front today after a couple of tough bouts with Al Kazeem. He was very game in front and, although not an overly impressive winner, I never thought he would be caught, as he is tenacious.
I can’t leave it without relaying my wife’s cheesy pun when asking why Novellist was not my choice, as it had a great chance on the
book
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
parlo; it was a stunning victory. Although I still haven’t got over not backing Danedream for the Arc [even though I was told to beforehand] maybe a victory for Novellist this year will slightly compensate for the unfortunate circumstances that stopped Danedream defending her crown in the Arc last year.
I`ll keep my fingers crossed!
As your Sir Chris Hoy said (concerning another event): "
It is unlikely, but not impossible
…"
What a compensation this would be for passionate owner-breeder Dr Berglar, too, after his bad luck in the German Derby 2012 (Novellist) and 2013 (Nuntius, Protectionist).
Over here, we can read this:
http://www.galopp-online.de/service/new … 1&id=27167
It says that only 10 of the last 21 KGQE-winners competed in same year’s Arc and only 2 of these 10 won the Arc.
There are only a few trainers who you can rely on when they say before a race that their horse is fit enough for their forthcoming race ……and that is what Barbe told us before the KG only for her to be told by Soumillon after the race that CDA lacked condition and was never going to win……
Seems to happen to the best of them and the blame for this particular brand of excuse surely lies with the work riders who I imagine are wrongly feeding back that horses are ready ( and I might add these are well known horses whose peak condition their work riders and trainers should be very familiar with) when they are not.
Didn’t back CDA btw but I am a keen follower of what connections have to say before and after races.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.