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Surely this could be a tiny field.
Seville
will have to be a wonder horse to come back so soon from his sterling pacemaking effort in last Thursday’s
Grand Prix de Paris
, and Cecil has said that
Midday
is unlikely to run if Workforce does. That leaves the Grade 1 winning
Debussy
as pacemaker for
Rewilding
,
Workforce
,
St Nicholas Abbey
and
Nathaniel
. Five maximum. Should be an interesting tactical affair, with perhaps
Debussy
slipping his field!
Seville is surely just a back-up should Nick get injured in the coming days. He’ll be withdrawn on Thursday most probably. Take out Midday too. I agree with the number 5.
- Total Posts 17716
Surprised Confront isn’t entered? Doubt there’s much wrong with the horse, as he was leading Workforce on the galllops only last week. Maybe SMS figures W can make his own pace if necessary, nothing in his form to suggest he shouldn’t.
Rewilding is clearly a good horse, though probably slightly flattered by his last run, and it’s doubtful he’ll have the legs of Workforce – however the race is run.
SNA is up against it, imo, and that the mare he beat lto is seen as a mere sub for this, tells all we need to know about his chances.I remember reading a lengthy and in depth piece from Lester Piggott on the King George. It was from the mid nineties I think.
He was very clearly of the opinion that the conditions of the KG very much favoured 3yos as he strongly believed that by late July the best 3yos were just about as good as their elders but still received 13lbs (12lbs now).
This seems sensible given the race results and even in the early years of this century this looks to be borne out.
The KG then fell into disrepute for a 3yo, I really am not sure why though I do remember there being some talk of Ballydoyle going off the race. Possibly atttributing Galileo’s form which tailed off after a hard race at Ascot to the KG’s mid summer position.
In any case I still want to back a 3yo here if any show up, they have often all missed the KG recently. Workforce’s disappointing run last year cannot be down to the conditions he faced, it must have been something else…or randomness.Nathaniel is therefore the horse that interests me most, his Vase form makes him very close to the best 3yos (thus qualifies as above)and his subsequent course and distance form takes away a large element of concern with the Ascot track (Workforce connections apparently concerned by this). The ground looks fine for Nathaniel also.
I am happy that Nathaniel is very close to being the top 3yo however the question remains …are the older horses simply much better than this years crop? Possibly, but with a proven Ascot horse on ground he likes I think he is the bet at 10/1. The £75k put up by his connections signals his wellbeing.
I am also interested in Seville at big odds though you would have to create a profile of a stuffy horse who needs plenty of races to bring him to his peak. perhaps unlikely but the odds are large. A small forecast also on the 3yos for me.Lester has plenty of offer on matters such as these, in my view.
With the ultimate aim of the top fancies being the Arc, I wonder if Nathaniel might have been aimed a little more purposefully than them to win the KG.
who rides SNA i wonder?
I wonder if Murtagh’s at Ascot on Saturday. Otherwise I would’ve thought Seamus or Colm will get the mount.
I’d say Seamie will ride, although I could be wrong.
Grimes, I see what you mean about the Arc being the main target for some, but St Nic will surely be tuned to the minute considering he’s still on a recovery mission as far as many are concerned. With other possible Arc candidates, I’m sure Coolmore and Ballydoyle will desperately want an all aged group 1 victory on his CV.
Yeah they have so many horses that they can aim each of them at different parts of the season. I’d imagine after this they’ll give him a break and send him to the Breeders’ Cup Turf followed possibly by the Hong Kong Vase.
It says something about "the best available jockey" if Murtagh or Fallon are not called up. That leaves Joseph to get the ride!However another screw up like in Paris last week is more than I can bear.
It’s a lot to gamble on – to wait for another day… and the Arc won’t be any easier to win!
Added: Are there form lines that suggest that there might not be as much between them as thought – or improvement to find?
Lines that run from York to Donny via Longchamps to Tokyo and back to Epsom?I hope for a good race & if the finish is anything like the POW, then WOW!
This is like the Foy come early – but with pace (hopefully)!!
with only the Japanese preppers missing!
And the added link to the 3 yr old form…
A new outright Arc fav?
I could however, see why form might be turned around come October… The only thing left to decipher is who’ll be the first to:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0kLGoB-7yE
have to like workforce i think, sna has too many question marks and there seems to be good evidence rewilding needs longer breaks to run at his best.
You can get 8/11 for Workforce to start fav with paddy power- a good deal in my opinion . Also you could hedge by laying him on an exchange.
Is St Nicholas Abbey a non runner?
Drifting a fair bit on exchanges.No still running, although anyone know any news on jockey bookings?
The best available will get the ride.That is the Ballydoyle policy as explained at the start of the season.Soumillon won this race before (for Coolmore) on Hurricane Run.He should be availaable on Saturday.Or they could hire one of the other world class French jockeys.Of course they could use one of the stable lads,or work riders at Ballydoyle. Mrs O’Brien will Tweet,Tweek the arrangements today or tomorrow.
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