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I think it’s unlikely that Reliable Man will show up at Ascot now. He’s been left in at the 2nd forfeit stage for the Grand Prix de Paris.
The trainer has said he won’t run if the ground is too fast. However, there is heavy rain forecast for Tuesday for the Paris area.
From what the trainer has said it appears as that if the ground is satisfactory he will run the horse on Thursday.
I’m sorry for giving people a bum steer here. I genuinely thought Ascot was the preferred route.
Only hope is that they don’t get the forecast rain.
So excited to see this race.
I think St Nicholas Abbey will put a performance of greatness in
hopefully.Seems to me like Aidan is between the rock and the hard place. He wants SNA to run and win to show that last year was all wrong and he can make up for it this year. However the "lads" need SYT to win more Group One races in Europe before being retired to the shed.Aidan screwed up at Ascot with this horse and now he is up to his ears in it.SYT could easily win the KG but Aidan need another win from SNA since Midday’s poor performance at the Curragh. I wonder if Aidan will have his way again.He cannot allow either one to beat the other.Joseph can do the weight on both horses!RubyIGITS tell me if I am wrong.
25/1 Midday is going fast.
Get on! I predict she will be nearer half that price within a few days.If she runs will be single figures, so 25’s is worth the chance when there are so many negative vibes about the participation of Workforce. 4/1 Workforce now with Ladbrokes, William and Boyle now pushed Stouteys out to 4/1, even bigger on betfair. SNA and Rewilding shortening. Reliable Man, Treasure Beach and Seville lengthening (all going for Grand Prix in France). I was on Rewilding for the POW, but as Jonibake says, his best form is when fresh. He had a hard ride that day. St Nicholas Abbey and Midday are closely linked by Coronation Cup form. One is a short priced favourite, the other 25/1. You’ve got to give Midday the benifit of the doubt last time. Being held up in a slowly run race at 10 furlongs on possibly soft(ish) ground is far from ideal. Especially up against a front-running (run of the race) filly with mile speed.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Though Tom Queally was criticised for his ride on Midday (wrongly, imo), I thought St Nicholas Abbey would have beaten her easier, had he not become unbalanced on the Epsom camber.
Having said that, SNA himself is a ridiculous price – even his very best RPR doesn’t come within shouting distance of any of Workforce’s top 4, and the last 2 of those achieved over too short a distance.
There has been speculation about Workforce’s participation, though I firmly believe he’ll run, and if he does, I’ll be amazed (and delighted) if he doesn’t go off clear favourite.Though Tom Queally was criticised for his ride on Midday (wrongly, imo), I thought St Nicholas Abbey would have beaten her easier, had he not become unbalanced on the Epsom camber.
Having said that, SNA himself is a ridiculous price – even his very best RPR doesn’t come within shouting distance of any of Workforce’s top 4, and the last 2 of those achieved over too short a distance.
There has been speculation about Workforce’s participation, though I firmly believe he’ll run, and if he does, I’ll be amazed (and delighted) if he doesn’t go off clear favourite.This is why you should create your own ratings and not rely on RPR or anyone elses for that matter.
I don’t think Workforce will handle the track I didn’t think he would last year and I backed Harbinger and this year I’ve already backed St Nicholas Abbey at 5/1. I could lay him back on Betfair but I don’t want to I think he’s a good thing. Midday hasn’t a chance St Nich was all over the place on Epsoms camber Ascot will suit him far better and Midday won’t be within three lengths of him.
I wonder if St Nich’s "not acting" at Epsom is more to do with being crowded. It was when Queally came alongside and sandwiched St Nich between Midday and Dandino – where he struggled. Finding his stride only after Midday went clear – when out on his own. Both at Epsom and Chester Ryan Moore was at pains to challenge wide.
A small field would be to St Nicholas Abbey’s advantage, as long as he gets a truly run race.
Had Queally waited longer it would have been closer if not a different result. When one is 16/1 and the other 11/8, it’s a no contest who to back. If Midday runs (which I believe she will) with the three three year olds going to France – this looks like being a race with three good horses and the rest rank outsiders. In that respect Midday is an excellent each way bet. Especially as the other good’n in the mix is Rewilding, whos best form so far is when fresh (and he isn’t).
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ian
RPR’s are a guide, and like all other ratings, open to individual interpretation.
Even allowing 2 or 3 lbs for SNA hanging at Epsom, he still has 3lb to find on Workforce’s Eclipse rating – and that over a distance 2f short of WF’s best.
Both trainer and jockey have given their reason for WF’s poor run in last year’s King George, which had nothing to do with the Ascot track, and why you’d imagine a trainer of SMS’s experience would run him a 2nd time over an unsuitable course escapes me completely?25/1 Midday is going fast.
Get on! I predict she will be nearer half that price within a few days.Oops!
Think I might have got that a bit wrong, if I could lay Midday back now at around 25/1 I would. Should’ve had a closer look at the weather forecast before backing Midday. Have now taken plenty of 4/1 and 100/30 about Workforce.Like Reet, I believe Workforce deserves to start favourite. If anyone fancies St Nicholas Abbey, am sure they’ll get a much better price on Saturday. Suspect Workforce will be under 2/1 come day of race.
Though I have been known to be wrong before now.
Pains me to say this but…
Well done Reet, you got it right first time.Value Is EverythingI don’t think there’s much between the criminally underrated Rewilding and Workforce. I rate Midday below them (I’m not sure by how much, I think the front two might have improved from last year) but also not by much. I wouldn’t downgrade Midday unless it’s worse than Good, cut in the ground didn’t hurt her much in the Prix Vermeille (should be noted Sarafina was first-up and ridden not to win but to get the trip). And I rate St Nicholas Abbey a touch above Midday, and can’t say for sure whether or not he could beat the top 2.
Re: Rewilding freshness might be a key but I’ll take the chance. A month+ is longer than what he had pre-Leger, and he ran nice time second up last year off a similar break. You can also argue that his Derby run wasn’t shocking bad and point to the track and being held up as excuses… he still marginally gained ground on a pushed out Workforce when clear late.
I think Blue Bunting can win it –
Blue Bunting…
Could the two comments above not apply to ‘St Nic’ too?
The two Godolphin runners ‘BB’ & ‘Re’ have come away from there and shown their worth…
mighten he actually improve considerably for the Ascot test?
Zarooni has a good record of hitting the board when he’s ultra positive in his comments/interviews
Vibe wise it will be good to hear how ‘Rewilding’ has done since the POW…
Rewilding is under-rated by a lot of people, he is almost as good as Workforce, if not just as good as him. But Rewilding’s record fresh is so much better. So there is a big possibility (or even probability) of running below form. Particularly after such a hard race in the Prince Of Wales.
St Nicholas Abbey could yet improve for the flatter track. So could Rewilding improve, as his best effort was last time in a race thought of beforehand as shorter than ideal. Workforce could yet improve, as this will be his first start at 12 furlongs this year.
I’d have Workforce as clear favourite, with St Nicholas Abbey and Rewilding as joint second favs.
Value Is EverythingAgree Ginge, WF will go off fave if he runs and rightly so. Looking more likely he will run according to the market.
Took the 5/2 this morning now a general 2/1.
I notice that Nathaniel has been supplemented for the race at a cost of £75,000. Connections must fancy his chances.
I’m still not convinced about St. Nicholas Abbey, although he could very well prove me wrong on Saturday. Rewilding is a good horse, but I believe he was flattered by his Prince Of Wales’ win – so it has to be the one I’ve fancied all along for this – Workforce. Hopefully he performs much better than he did last season in this event. If reports of his latest brilliant piece of work on the gallops is true – and with the Stoute team said to be very pleased with what they witnessed – then I think the only course of action left is to… lump on !
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- Total Posts 17716
Surely this could be a tiny field.
Seville
will have to be a wonder horse to come back so soon from his sterling pacemaking effort in last Thursday’s
Grand Prix de Paris
, and Cecil has said that
Midday
is unlikely to run if Workforce does. That leaves the Grade 1 winning
Debussy
as pacemaker for
Rewilding
,
Workforce
,
St Nicholas Abbey
and
Nathaniel
. Five maximum. Should be an interesting tactical affair, with perhaps
Debussy
slipping his field!
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