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What price is beef?
I probably agree with you grassy on the price, that was a bit of throw away comment.. The best bet of the season was when he ran first time out.. Even money that day, I was at Towcester and when I saw the price duly got all the money from my wallet and lumped it on..
Nicholls horses do concern me a touch though. I can’t find fault with the horse only the way the stables horses have run in the last couple of weeks. We’ll see if stable form affects superstars
I’ve got a bit of a fancy for Afsoun. Highly thought of last year but found out a bit at cheltenham. I was at Newbury when we won first time out and he routed that field under top weight. Temoin running so well the other day added some confidence from a stable perspective. Bar Straw Bear and Iktitaf (if he runs) I think it’s a relatively weak race for a grade 1. Afsoun should be good enough for at least a place
Quote: from Grasshopper on 11:38 am on Dec. 21, 2006[br]I don’t know that his price does reflect his chance, to be honest Aragorn.
I think the price reflects the fact that people are talking up non-existent jumping flaws, and non-existent concerns that he won’t stay an easy 3m round Kempton.
I think he should be shorter than he is, and suggest everyone lumps on the Kauto/Beef Or Salmon double (another one at the wrong price), and helps themselves to another Christmas on 29th December. :cool:
(Edited by Grasshopper at 11:39 am on Dec. 21, 2006)<br>
The jumping flaws will be exposed when he actually has to jump at speed. They were in the Queen Mother this year.
JohnJ.
John you said that before the tingle creek mate. If you throw it enough it’ll stick one day ;)
To be fair Aragon, I don’t think his jumping was put under pressure. And he wasn’t fluent over the second last….
John, your being pedantic. The fact that he left the Arkle winner flailing when Ruby decided to push the button obviously makes no difference!! Your trying to pick holes that aren’t really there. He just attacks fences and when A horse does that it’s inevitable that he’ll hit a few
Quote: from davidbrady on 10:58 am on Dec. 21, 2006[br]stormont
3m around Kempton is going to be far less of a test than 3m around Haydock, irrespective of the speed becuase they can’t go 2m pace in a 3m race. If he stays up he wins unless Monets Garden is another monster. The only place he COULD be found out is 3m 2f 110y around Cheltenham.<br>
They can quite easily go the pace of a 2mile race over 3 at Kempton………… in my opninion. There are a few horses that have no stamina worries. People are saying Monet’s garden might find it a bit too far, now i think he needs every yard of 3miles.
Kauto Star is very good but i think many people are going over the top. I cant see him winning this on the bridle, i think he will have quite a fight on his hands……. he has got to stand up first……. is he long odds on to stand up, i dont think so.
He probably attacks his fences too much, there is attacking and there is suicidal…… and KS is a bit of both on occasions.
This sport is all about opinions which makes it so good and at the current prices he isnt of value at all.
Quote: from Stormont on 1:12 pm on Dec. 21, 2006[br]
Quote: from davidbrady on 10:58 am on Dec. 21, 2006[br]stormont
3m around Kempton is going to be far less of a test than 3m around Haydock, irrespective of the speed becuase they can’t go 2m pace in a 3m race. If he stays up he wins unless Monets Garden is another monster. The only place he COULD be found out is 3m 2f 110y around Cheltenham.<br>
They can quite easily go the pace of a 2mile race over 3 at Kempton………… in my opninion. There are a few horses that have no stamina worries. People are saying Monet’s garden might find it a bit too far, now i think he needs every yard of 3miles.
Kauto Star is very good but i think many people are going over the top. I cant see him winning this on the bridle, i think he will have quite a fight on his hands……. he has got to stand up first……. is he long odds on to stand up, i dont think so.
He probably attacks his fences too much, there is attacking and there is suicidal…… and KS is a bit of both on occasions.
This sport is all about opinions which makes it so good and at the current prices he isnt of value at all.
MOnets Garden being by Roselier out of a reamainder man mare is probably bred to get 5 miles ….and taking Bindaree aside, all roseliers like cut. Therefor you could argue that his run in the arkle was extraordinary.
That aside I wouldnt want to have to much money riding on KS failing. He has plenty questions to still answer but one has to be impressed so far. INteresting discussion about the odds, is there anyone here who will back him at these current odds? I personally dont like backing a horse in top class jumps thats very short simply because there are jumps and also because i feel that over recent years, the emergence of viruses and bugs seems to ensure many horses have more off days then they used to. People might argue that this is the same as it ever was but Im not so sure and I remember particularly the leopardstown meeting a couple seasons back when there seeemed to be a number of high profile failures including rhinestone cowboy in the big hurdle race. All of these factors have made me cowardly.
SHL
Hello,
The 3 miles at Kempton will be no problem.<br>Remember shouting home two 2 m chasers a couple of years ago?? Eredon Bleu and Tuitchev ! :)
Therefore I fear NO stamina issues. However, I still think good going and speed maybe KS chink in the armour.<br>I have mentioned before KS takes off slightly early, [reason for his demise at Cheltenham, not the Sun!],<br>his recent races have been on easy ground with no fast pace.<br>At the Tingle, one has to take into account the mayhem caused mid race where a probably half of the field were affected from dramatically to slightly, by a faller. That indeed created a two horse race.
I am in the corner that if KS stands up he wins…but 2/5 is abit skinny for the standing up bit! ;) <br>
regards,
doyley
I agree dooley i think KS will be open to be beat at a faster pace and on better ground. I think he will win the King George but what price will he be for the Gold Cup if he does win?? Id certainly take him on for the Gold Cup at 15/8 – 2/1!! I have a funny feelin that KS might not be to fond of Cheltenham
I’m not the only one who seems to think KS has jumping flaws, read the RP today, McCoy also thinks the flaws exist.
JohnJ
Yeah but would he say that if he was riding it?! If you asked Ruby i’m sure he’d say the horse attacks fences so yes he is prone to mistakes. But to say his jumping is flawed is erroneous if you ask me. The horse is blatantly a good jumper.
Much like Kicking King, a great jumper who is prone to the odd blunder. KG two years ago being a prime example. If your going to oppose him on the basis that he might fall then I would think you’ll lose more money than you’ll gain.
Quote: from Aragorn on 1:13 pm on Dec. 22, 2006[br]Yeah but would he say that if he was riding it?! If you asked Ruby i’m sure he’d say the horse attacks fences so yes he is prone to mistakes. But to say his jumping is flawed is erroneous if you ask me. The horse is blatantly a good jumper.
Much like Kicking King, a great jumper who is prone to the odd blunder. KG two years ago being a prime example. If your going to oppose him on the basis that he might fall then I would think you’ll lose more money than you’ll gain.
Talk about contradicting yourself!
JohnJ.
John, your trying to say that his jumping is inherently flawed. What i’m saying is that yes he will make mistakes granted but fundamentally he is an excellent jumper which is different to what your saying and not contradictory.
Your argument is that you’ll oppose him because he might make a mistake.. Which is just plain daft.
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……..and, as we’ve seen before, he’s no certainty to get beat, even if he does fall.:biggrin:
Hello,
It is interesting we are debating the flaws of a red hot cert. Unintentionally we maybe disguising the fact the 2006 KG field is rather weak!<br> There is some serious NH jumpers out there that are FIT but not taking part???<br> The going is expected to suit all types, the course is very easy and the trip at this course appears to be well in the compass of 2m to 3.5m horses..so why ain’t there more than 12 chasing this excellent prize money ??
If a horse is fit and well it should be racing..not sitting in a heated stable munching on designer food!
regards,
doyley
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