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10/1 Cue Card is a crazy price for this, with the 1st and 2nd best very unlikely to run.
I first tipped this in March at 12/1, but updated the blog post recently. You can see the full reasoning there.
http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com/201 … ip-at-121/
Good luck
JoeCue Card will stay as long as the ground isn’t too fast.
Eh?
The faster the ground the less emphasis is on stamina Euro.
Value Is EverythingIt isn’t as clear cut as that, sometimes because the ground is soft the pace will be slower placing less emphasis on stamina.
It isn’t as clear cut as that, sometimes because the ground is soft the pace will be slower placing less emphasis on stamina.
At any distance Stilvi, there are two things that increase stamina.
A) Ground:
Thefirmer
("faster") the ground the
less
emphasis on stamina; the
softer
("slower") the ground the
more
emphasis on stamina.
B) Pace:
Thefaster
they go
for that particular surface
the
more
emphasis is on stamina.
A fast pace
considering the firm ground
– will always place less emphasis on stamina than a fast pace
considering the soft ground
.
Or to put it another way:
For a Kempton 3m chase on firm ground to place as much emphasis on stamina as a soft ground 3m chase at Kempton – the pace on firm ground would need to be very fast (given conditions) and the soft ground race very slow (given those conditions).Nobody knows at this stage whether there will be lots of front/prominent runners in the King George field, so it is virtually impossible to say whether it will be a strongly or slowly run race
given conditions
…
Therefore Stilvi, if anyone were to wish for something to place as little emphasis on stamina as possible on a race, they should actually
wish
for firmer ("
faster
") ground. The opposite of what Euro implied. Hence my confusion.
Cue Card’s best chance of staying the 3m trip at Kempton is on firm (so called "fast") ground, an even better chance if the pace is slow considering that firm surface.
Value Is EverythingFWIW, I have no doubt whatever Cue Card will get the Kempton trip in anything but the bottomless pudding of last year. He’s my favourite horse but, that aside, anything that won the Ryanair in the fashion he did on good to soft, after winning a Grade 1 over the same trip in soft at Ascot while still in 3rd gear would not have his stamina for 3m at Kempton questioned.
FWIW, I have no doubt whatever Cue Card will get the Kempton trip in anything but the bottomless pudding of last year. He’s my favourite horse but, that aside, anything that won the Ryanair in the fashion he did on good to soft, after winning a Grade 1 over the same trip in soft at Ascot while still in 3rd gear would not have his stamina for 3m at Kempton questioned.
Like your thinking fella! Going in!
At this stage, I like Al Ferof. Paul Nicholls is great at getting horses back from tendon injuries and this horse has always looked like a King George horse to me (if his jumping stands up).
Long Run is quite reliable and performs well at Kempton, so it would be hard to ignore him. Early days though…
I would imagine if anyone had to pick a winner to save their lives it would be course specialist Long Run. Simple?
Sorely tempted to stay loyal to Captain Chris. We’ll see what form he’s in closer to the time (another good run in the Peterborough will suffice). One that will likely go off at a nice price.
Will definitely be backing either Al Ferof or Cue Card. Two of my favourites, so will be really fun to see them go head on. Right now i’m more inclined to back Al Ferof.
If Nicky Henderson decides to train Sprinter Sacre for the King George, then it won’t matter a jot which horses are in opposition to him.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Nicky Henderson confirms that Sprinter Sacre will not be sent to the King George. A good decision in my opinion, although it would be interesting to see him try a longer distance at some point if his breathing holds together.
Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth taken out of the betting with Sponsors Hills…yet 8s still available about Cue Card. Crazy, crazy, crazy. I like Al Ferof a lot but he will be trying to come back from serious injury, and Cue Card has already seen off most of the rest of them.
I continue to be astounded at how many pros insist on fielding against CC every time he runs, despite him being just about the most consistent, regularly raced, high class horse in training.
If he has a misfortune, it is to be competing in the same generation as the mighty Sprinter Sacre. Without that horse, all else being the same, here is Cue Card’s record:
Wins The Melling by 19L from Flemenstar
Wins the Arkle by 22L from Menorah
Won the Ryanair by 9L from First Lieutenant
Won the Betfair in 3rd gear at Ascot by 6L from Cap Chris
Btn short head by Bobs Worth giving the GC winner half a stone (and he should have won that day)
Hammers Silv Conti on fencing debut
Btn 6 &1/2L by Al Ferof in Supreme
Beats Al Ferof and 22 others by 8L + in Chelt Bumper on 2nd outing.Am I missing something here or don’t the bookies read form in the way of normal people?
Joe
Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth taken out of the betting with Sponsors Hills…yet 8s still available about Cue Card. Crazy, crazy, crazy. I like Al Ferof a lot but he will be trying to come back from serious injury, and Cue Card has already seen off most of the rest of them.
I continue to be astounded at how many pros insist on fielding against CC every time he runs, despite him being just about the most consistent, regularly raced, high class horse in training.
If he has a misfortune, it is to be competing in the same generation as the mighty Sprinter Sacre. Without that horse, all else being the same, here is Cue Card’s record:
Wins The Melling by 19L from Flemenstar
Wins the Arkle by 22L from Menorah
Won the Ryanair by 9L from First Lieutenant
Won the Betfair in 3rd gear at Ascot by 6L from Cap Chris
Btn short head by Bobs Worth giving the GC winner half a stone (and he should have won that day)
Hammers Silv Conti on fencing debut
Btn 6 &1/2L by Al Ferof in Supreme
Beats Al Ferof and 22 others by 8L + in Chelt Bumper on 2nd outing.Am I missing something here or don’t the bookies read form in the way of normal people?
Joe
He was very much the forgotten horse of the start of last season. He certainly did a good job reminding people he’s still here!
The reason Cue Card is such a big price is he ran in the race last year and was well beaten. Long Run with 2 wins and a second out of 3 runs in the race is a certain runner, is indifferent to the ground, he is a model of consistency and will probably be up with the pace and out of trouble is the most likely winner.
The one I like for this, although still not confirmed due to Captain Chris being in the race, is Menorah. Backed at 50s with Stan James and again at 33s.The horse is very well suited to Kempton and recent comments made by Hobbs gives me a little more encouragement that they may let Menorah take its chance. Fingers crossed.
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