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Thing is, Imperial Commander doesn’t really go on right-handed tracks. It’s also worth pointing out that his only wins outside of Cheltenham were an Irish Point-to-Point and a novices hurdle at Newcastle.
Looking at Imperial Commander’s form in more detail:
06/07 bumpers and hurdling:
24 April 05: Won bumper at Cheltenham from Snap Tie.
27 October 06: 4th to Massini’s Maguire in 2m5f novice on hurdling debut.
9 November 06: Only 13 days off but not that well fancied 10/1 racing in a Grade 2 when still a maiden, last of 6 finishers, something probably hurting..
31 January 07: Given 7 weeks to get over what ailed him, won ordinary 2m4f novice at Newcastle impressively @ 11/10 fav. Good run expected.
14 March 07: Another break, finished 7th despite his inexperience (2 runs) in 2m5f Grade 1 Hurdle Cheltenham, again behind Massini’s Maguire. A good run @ 25/1.
13 April 07: 3rd to Chief Dan George and Spa Hurdle winner Wicheta Lineman at 25/1. A good run even with only a month off, could not have expected any better.So to 07/08 and chasing:
20 October 07: Impressive debut over fences at Cheltenham, expected @ 10/11 fav.
16 November 07: Less than a month off, won another Cheltenham novice, again expected @ 4/7.
14 December 07: Again less than a month off, disappointing 4th of 4 to Joe Lively, Timeform comment “lost shoe”. Did not run again that season and something probably went amiss. Run best ignored.08/09 season:
15 November 08: Won Paddy Power fist time out from Barber Shop, despite only 4th chase starts.
26 December 08: 41 days off, Not that well fancied 10/1 shot. 6th to Kauto Star on only 5th chase start. First try on a right-handed course. But Twister was in the middle of a poor run. Only 1 winner in 46 starts in December and 1 win in 35 for January. That is 2 wins in 81, a 2.5% strike rate. Surely race best ignored?
12 March 09: Off some time, won Ryanair Chase, got the best of a battle with Voy Por Ustedes and Schindler’s Hunt.
29 April 09: 48 days off, travelled over to Punchestown (second start right-handed and at further than 3m). Possibly not over a hard race. After very heavy rain that turned the going to very soft. Failed to stay the 25 furlong trip on the ground, pulled up when out on his feet. I’d be against Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup on heavy ground.09/10 season:
21 November 09: Won again on reappearance. Best performance yet, making a mockery of the “best at Cheltenham” theory. Beaten in a ding dong battle with Kauto Star on reappearance. 3 miles on soft. 24 lengths back to the third.
26 December 09: 35 days off. Again disappointing at Kempton on Boxing Day / 3rd start right-handed. However, did not get the best of starts (possibly intentionally). Made a bad mistake at the second fence when crowded (usually a front runner / races prominently). Never really travelling after that. Twister did have 5 winners in 86 runners a 5.8% strike rate in December, compared to 10% over fences for the whole season. If memory serves had no winner (or possibly just one) since Khyber Kim in the December Hurdle on 12th Dec; and had another poor Christmas period.
19 March 10: Again no run until Cheltenham. Won Gold Cup, best performance. But a race that obviously must have taken quite a bit out of him.
8 April 10: Only 20 days off, always going / jumping poorly when unseating at Aintree.
20 November 10: Another reappearance win in Betfair Chase.
26 December 10: After 36 days off, Imperial Commander wins the King George VI?Imperial Commander has only had three runs right-handed:
One at 10/1 with Twister in awful form, taking on Kauto Star on only 5th chase start.
One in bottomless ground, possibly not staying the trip or not at his best after a hard race at Cheltenham.
One probably unsuited by hold up tactics, unproven at 3 miles at the time. Made a bad mistake at the second that would stop most horses.Conclusion: Certainly runs well fresh and like every horse needs time to get over hard races. But there are excuses for a lot of his defeats when not fresh. Also valid excuses when racing right-handed. It may be he’s best fresh and / or left-handed, but the evidence is not solid. This has to be allowed for in the price I am willing to take.
If you gave me the same price for Imperial Commander and Kauto Star for the King George I’d back Kauto Star. If you gave me the same price on both for the Gold Cup I’d back Imperial Commander. But they are not the same price for the King George. As long as he’s over the slight betfair injury, I’d rather be on Imperial Commander at the prices.
Value Is EverythingNice write up, as a Kauto fan, did make me think of him as more of a threat. Think he does run better fresh however, if you look at this runs on reappearances, and Cheltenham 09 and 10 wins for example.
Twiston-Davies came out this morning and said that the injury is healing well. Still think it would be a risk to run.
NULTY,
If AP is 1/4 to ride Kauto, what makes u think he’ll ‘probably’ ride Kempes if he runs? Do u really think JP would deny McCoy the chance to ride one of the greatest chasers of all time as he goes for history? I doubt it.
It amazes me why trainers are unable to make sensible decisions.
I think that Imperial Commander has no chance whatsoever at Kempton, he doesn’t like the track and will have bad vibes from his last two visits, he doesn’t like going right handed and he needs a longer break between races.
His biggest obstacle is Kauto Star who incredibly is still available at odds against when he loves Kempton, has won the last 4 runnings easily by at least 8 lengths without ever being headed after taking up the running.
There is only one horse with any chance of ruffling Kauto and that is Long Run if he puts in a good round of jumping.
I still think Imperial Commander will be one of the top 3 in the Gold Cup and if you fancy him for that then wait until he has dissapointed once more at Kempton and get the bigger odds.
- Total Posts 17716
No chamce wahtsoever? You got to be kidding?
On what assumption do you base "He doesn’t like the track on?
The evidence backing that up wouldn’t stand up even in a kangaroo court.
Makes me think of Sheep everytiime I read this crap abut the horse.
He was all wrong on his first run there nothing to do with not being fresh or not liking the place. Nigel’s would have been better off working on Blackpool beach the way they were running during Decemeber of that year and last year he walked through the secone fence and Paddy Brennan being a very sensible jockey nursed him round.
It BS he hates the track he’s never had a proper opertunity to show he can handle it.
If he can operate round Cheltenham and haydock damn sure he’ll be ok round Kempton.
No chamce wahtsoever? You got to be kidding?
On what assumption do you base "He doesn’t like the track on?
The evidence backing that up wouldn’t stand up even in a kangaroo court.
Makes me think of Sheep everytiime I read this crap abut the horse.
He was all wrong on his first run there nothing to do with not being fresh or not liking the place. Nigel’s would have been better off working on Blackpool beach the way they were running during Decemeber of that year and last year he walked through the secone fence and Paddy Brennan being a very sensible jockey nursed him round.
It BS he hates the track he’s never had a proper opertunity to show he can handle it.
If he can operate round Cheltenham and haydock damn sure he’ll be ok round Kempton.
As I was saying about trainers and sensible decisions, the market told us that despite being clearly the best horse on ratings he wasn’t going to win at Aintree as he had a hard race at Cheltenham with an insufficient time to recover. Then you have Twiston Davies running the horse when the stable is clearly out of form………you said it yourself he would be better running at Blackpool beach….the trainer makes bad decisions. IC is available at 8/1 and if you really think that the horse has a good chance then you can get 5/2 for a place on Betfair.
Posted 26/11/2010 ‘BETFAIR CHASE’ thread:
Imperial Commander has only competed four times on a right-handed course, so the debate as to whether or not he is as effective going that way is still inconclusive.
His career figures thus far do tell us, however, that he is a far better animal when fresh. Below are his respective form figures (under rules) when returning from an absence of six weeks or more, or less than six weeks.
– six weeks 4631465U (beaten on average 45L)
+ six weeks 117111P211When you take into consideration the above data and that two of his poorest performances have come in the King George, Imperial Commander has a mountain to climb to beat Kauto at Kempton and may struggle to reach a place.
———————————————————It’s hard to imagine a valid excuse behind the majority of those poor efforts when returning from an absence of under six weeks.
That’s the main reason I could not have Imperial Commander for the King George. The poor record he has in this race is another, but there is no conclusive evidence that he can’t act on a right-handed track, given that he has only competed in that direction on four occasions.
For the record, Imperial Commander’s race not did end at the second fence (where a massive leap from Kauto Star was the contributing factor to his mistake) last year. Paddy Brennan got the horse to within a couple of lengths of eventual third Barbers Shop after the mistake, with the majority of the race still remaining.
It is the often overlooked mistake he made at the fifth that cost him any chance in the race.
Kauto may be getting on a bit and he may clout the odd fence but the greatest NH horse of the modern era will not be denied his 5th King George. IC, Long Run and the others will try their best but Kauto will be king again on boxing day.
Posted 26/11/2010 ‘BETFAIR CHASE’ thread:
Imperial Commander has only competed four times on a right-handed course, so the debate as to whether or not he is as effective going that way is still inconclusive.
His career figures thus far do tell us, however, that he is a far better animal when fresh. Below are his respective form figures (under rules) when returning from an absence of six weeks or more, or less than six weeks.
– six weeks 4631465U (beaten on average 45L)
+ six weeks 117111P211When you take into consideration the above data and that two of his poorest performances have come in the King George, Imperial Commander has a mountain to climb to beat Kauto at Kempton and may struggle to reach a place.
———————————————————It’s hard to imagine a valid excuse behind the majority of those poor efforts when returning from an absence of under six weeks.
That’s the main reason I could not have Imperial Commander for the King George. The poor record he has in this race is another, but there is no conclusive evidence that he can’t act on a right-handed track, given that he has only competed in that direction on four occasions.
For the record, Imperial Commander’s race not did end at the second fence (where a massive leap from Kauto Star was the contributing factor to his mistake) last year. Paddy Brennan got the horse to within a couple of lengths of eventual third Barbers Shop after the mistake, with the majority of the race still remaining.
It is the often overlooked mistake he made at the fifth that cost him any chance in the race.
Imperial Commander’s mistake at the second did not stop him getting close to Barber Shop, but it probably took something out of him. IC being normally a prominent runner, probably effected his chance more than it did a horse usually held up. And the fact Twister has been in very poor form over Christmas in both years; isn’t that a good enough excuse on its own?
Value Is EverythingNULTY,
If AP is 1/4 to ride Kauto, what makes u think he’ll ‘probably’ ride Kempes if he runs? Do u really think JP would deny McCoy the chance to ride one of the greatest chasers of all time as he goes for history? I doubt it.
I’ll be honest and admit that I forgot that AP was likely to take the vacant ride on Kauto but from latest reports Noel Fehily is recovering sufficiently to take the ride. IF he does then AP ought to be on Kempes.
Had an insight over the racecard, spotting two possible contenders to pose threat to Kauto Star. Imperial Commander and Sizing Europe both beaten to 2nd by Kauto, and though Kauto seems to be more than just a regular leading hurdler I have a feeling these two will make life a lot harder on him if they run eventually.
- Total Posts 17716
Pricewise gone for Long Run
He did say it was the value horse, he did not say it was the most likely to win. He says he still expects Kauto to win.
Ollie Magern is fourth in the King George Poll on the racing post site
Only 2% behind Long Run! He’ll always have my e/w money. Especially at 200/1!It’s hard to imagine a valid excuse behind the majority of those poor efforts when returning from an absence of under six weeks.
That’s the main reason I could not have Imperial Commander for the King George. The poor record he has in this race is another, but there is no conclusive evidence that he can’t act on a right-handed track, given that he has only competed in that direction on four occasions.
For the record, Imperial Commander’s race not did end at the second fence (where a massive leap from Kauto Star was the contributing factor to his mistake) last year. Paddy Brennan got the horse to within a couple of lengths of eventual third Barbers Shop after the mistake, with the majority of the race still remaining.
It is the often overlooked mistake he made at the fifth that cost him any chance in the race.
Imperial Commander’s mistake at the second did not stop him getting close to Barber Shop, but it probably took something out of him. IC being normally a prominent runner, probably effected his chance more than it did a horse usually held up. And the fact Twister has been in very poor form over Christmas in both years; isn’t that a good enough excuse on its own?
Looking at the race again, I will say that the right-handed track will not be detrimental to Imperial Commander’s chances in the King George.
He travelled well for much of the race (Paddy nurtured him back into the race) and was only two lengths behind eventual second, Madison Du Berlais, going down the side of the track.
Those mistakes arguably took aomething out of him and perhaps he didn’t see the race out – despite staying on at one stage – due to his trainers poor form. Conversely, a combination of the flat, sharp track and a preference for going left-handed may be valid excuses for his poor efforts on Boxing Day.
Still, after returning form an absence of under six weeks, his win / place record is a poor 25%. His record returning after a period of greater than six weeks is 80%.
Connections are right to have another crack at it, but Kauto has most to fear from Forpady and Planet Of Sound, in my opinion.
If Long Run ( despite Master Waley-Cohen
) can run with the same verve and enthusiasm he showed in last year’s Feltham Chase, he might just give Kauto Star something to think about.What ? Laugh if you want. Some of you positively guffawed when I said (categorically) that the "great unbeatable" Zenyatta would meet her one and only defeat in the Breeders Cup. In keeping with my nature, I retained a dignified and and non gloating silence afterwards.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
How can some jokers say Kauto Star will be retired after the King George? He’s only ten, Clive Smith (his owner) and Paul Nicholls have both said he’s got a couple more years left in him, so do they know less than these idiots once again trying to shoot down the horse and all his achievements. Looking at the king George, unless Kauto falls or unseats, nothing will touch him around Kempton. Nicholls is saying he’s got the horse exactly how he wants him, and lets not forget this is a trainer who says it how it it, good or bad. The most likely contenders are Imperial Commander, who quite simply won’t reverse the form from last years king george, he is a cheltenham horse all over. Long Run is a Champion in the making, but his jumping won’t stand up to the test as kempton is quite a sharp track regards jumping. Long Run will be in contention but once Kauto Star hits the front and puts on the pressure, he will be forced into jumping errors. Nacarat isn’t quite good enough as with most of the field, im gutted i never took Kauto at a bigger price, he’s 11/8 now. I suggest you take that, because come boxing day and the start of the race, that price is going to look like great value. And please, stop chatting **** about the best horse of our generation
Only 2% behind Long Run! He’ll always have my e/w money. Especially at 200/1!
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