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Posts
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People blaming McCoy is ridiculous.
I do see that Clive Smith has quoted this morning stated that he maybe thought McCoy’s style didnt suit the horse, and that Kauto will ‘silence doubters’.
Unfortunately for Mr Smith, i dont think he will. Kauto Star isn’t the horse that he once was, and i really cannot see him figuring in the finish come March.
- Total Posts 17716
This thread has now become a debate on whether
Kauto Star
should or shouldn"t be retired,I started this thread saying he should and having witnessed yet another less than inspiring run from the King,who in his pomp travels like a Rolls Royce and pings 9 out of every 10 fences,i am astonished that connections still want to persevere with him,today it turns out he bled from both nostrils after the race,yet another clear as day reason to give him a well earned retirement! The way he jumped the 2nd last again confirmed to me he has had his day! Mark my words when i say Kauto Star will not complete the course in this years Gold cup, to put it mildly! Greed rules the world!
Yeah right Gord now you’re a vet
You obviously know damn all about horses if you think a minor nose bleed is a sign a horse should be retired.
Paul Nichols was very careful to say he bled from both nostrils which is very seldom a worry. Many horses have bleeds after strenous excersice BTW 2 nostrils means it’s not technically a nose bleed it actually comes from the lungs
Had it been from one nostril it would most likley be quite serious but this is nothing at all to worry about.
You say he was going like a rolls royce hell knows which race you were watching he was never travelling like his usual self at any stage.
I myself initially thought we had seen the last of him and have no desire to see him run another stinker but PN and Clive Smith are training him for the Gold Cup it doesn’t mean they will run him unless he shows them he’s capable of puting up a good display.
To describe Clive Smith as greedy is just you being self opiniuated which is nothing new.
If Paul Nichols told you, your horse should stay in training as he still has something to offer you would say no and retire him would you?
What annoys me about Clive Smith is puting up AP as an excuse why the horse was never really travelling well because he hasn’t ridden him before. AP could get up on amule and make him jump the man is talking absolute dribble.
Clive Smith would be better off facing the truth PN failed to get the horse right on the day which happens but it had bog all to do with AP.
What you forget Gord is Kauto Star ran a very similar race to this behind Denman. So much so PN and CS must put him back on a racetrack to find out the time of dsay. As PN says he’s 11 years old not 13 years old.
Considering nearly 20 horses (none of which were in Kauto Star’s class) between the age of 10 and 12 have won the race it would be nuts not to try if the horse shows he fit and well.
You’re my mate but I have tio say you’ve had better days that this one.
You’ll be about as popular as a fart in a spacesuit if you say "I told you so" if Kauto does end up being pulled up or falling……shouldn’t really say thing like that in my presensce get’s me ole back up
- Total Posts 17716
People blaming McCoy is ridiculous.
I do see that Clive Smith has quoted this morning stated that he maybe thought McCoy’s style didnt suit the horse, and that Kauto will ‘silence doubters’.
Unfortunately for Mr Smith, i dont think he will. Kauto Star isn’t the horse that he once was, and i really cannot see him figuring in the finish come March.
As I just said Gazz a terrible staement for the man to make.
Figuring in the finish? Oh I think if he truns up while he may not win he’ll certainly give them something to think about If I know PN.
Think Kauto 2008, Master Minded and Denman they all bounced back….I’m not prepared to or sure PN can’t pull off another racing miracle and neither should anyone else be with his record of brininging them back from the dead. Guys a witchdoctor
There is such a thing as being in denial and I think Clive Smith and others are guilty of this.
I’ve ALWAYS said Kauto would bounce back previously but he has gone now he just doesn’t look the horse he once was at all.
If he wins the Gold Cup in March I’ll give the game up.
To apportion any blame on AP for Kauto Star’s mistake or failure to win is scraping the barrel. As has been pointed out, the horse has made similar mistakes before – and fell – with Walsh and Thomas aboard.
The simple truth of the matter; whether Clive Smith or anyone else accepts it or not, is that Kauto’s Star (pun intended ) is on the wane. He is not the horse of old and is not going to be.
I appreciate the greatness of Kauto Star as much as any other racing fan – god knows I’ve backed him often enough – and trumpeted his cause as a future world beater during his novice and two mile chase days, where others doubted him – BUT one has to be realistic in all this. For all Kauto Star’s undoubted brilliance, he has also has his flaws – and dare I say it, limitations. Hence why I have chosen to back against him on occasions.
It really grates with me that the same old excuses are trotted out when he loses a race. It’s always the same old chestnuts " was never travelling ", "not jumping with any fluency " , " didn’t look right " blah blah blah.
It is never because he was beaten fair and square by the best horse on the day. No, no ! That just wouldn’t sit right at all, would it?
Sentiment is one thing ladies and gentleman of the highly Kauto persuasion – but when it comes to laying the hard readies down, you must take a strong dose of reality pills first, and see the big picture.
I rest
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Interesting comments from the Champion trainer re Kauto’s bleed and his continuing Cheltenham preparation.
Paul Nicholls is the best in Britain at the moment and so much of that is about developing a winning mentality and air of invincibility not only for the horses but also the human team.
PN is like the top football managers he will always find an explanation for big defeats to enable the confidence and fundamental talent of his horses and men to remain intact.
In football …it was the referee, the shirts were the wrong colour, we played 3 matches in a week etc. anything to deflect blame from the team
In racing the cleverest (usually the best)trainers are thankfully less confrontational but often cunningly find a way to imply their top charges was less than 100% after a defeat. "I was never happy at any stage" is one of Paul’s favourites and does the job nicely.
If you had listened to Azertioup’s connections it was a miracle Moscow Flyer ever finished in front of Az’ despite the 3-1 record, such was the litany of fitness, jumping and jockey errors that blighted the Ditcheat champion in their head to heads.Deep down I hope Kauto is retired but I understand that this may be very unfair on a great Champion who had an off day with possibly a minor ailment. Whatever the decision he is in the best of hands.
The people I really feel sorry for here are those that backed Long Run to favouritism, off a handicap mark of 158 at Cheltenham last time and saw him finish a well beaten third.
They must be thinking what on earth is going on here, he can’t win off a 158, but can win a Grade 1 Championship race off levels with horse rated 190 and many more rated higher than his 158.
You couldn’t make it up, no wonder punters haven’t got a chance.- Total Posts 17716
Could be a couple of perfectly good reasons why Long Run was beaten so badly at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson wasn’t exactly in sparkling form at the time, certainly not as he is at the moment and the course itself.
They say Kempton suits Kauto Star better than Cheltenham does but I honestly think that relates more to Long Run than it ever did to Kauto
Long Run had been on the go quite a long time last season dont forget.
He had been running quite frequently, and as a young horse, still growing, maturing, etc… he may have just needed some time to himself so to speak.
Really enjoying the "Kauto to quit?" debate.
As mentioned, I think he deserves his chance in the Gold Cup and I can genuinely see him there at the finish.
I would agree his engine is not quite the same, but he is still a Rolls-Royce and is capable of top form IMHO.
Chelters will suit him a lot better at this point in his career.
I agree that excuses can often be made, the bleeding thing with his nose…who knows?!
I’m not an expert in how that would affect a horses performance, maybe others have an idea?The one thing I cannot understand is all the doom and gloom merchants saying that the horse is going to fall or die just like Best Mate. WHY?!
If you don’t like the thought of horses falling, why watch NH racing?
Kauto has no more chance of falling or dying as any other horse who can jump well – which, IMO Kauto does.
A punter in my local Hills was going on about greed and Nicholls and how Kauto should be retired otherwise he’ll end up like Best Mate. Guess the punter knows best.
I do not liken Kauto’s last performance to the dramatic decline of Moscow Flyer.
Zip
That’s tosh, really!
As PN has explained –every year
, since he’s had a medium to do so – his horses are
generally below form
in January
as the
majority
have their
flu jabs
,
Reet,
You are blaming Paul Nicholls poor form this year on the "
flu jab
".
But as you say, Nicholls has had the flu jab
every year
.
My statistics ofprevious years
indicate he’s been in
just as good
form in
January
as his
seasonal strike rate
,
despite the flu jab
.
You are
wrong
. Nicholls has
NOT
been "
generally below form in January
".
Evidence suggests the flu jab has nothing to do with any run of poor form. So far in January he’s had 4 wins from 44 runners. That is nowhere near the expected strike rate. Therefore, there is no dodging the fact – Nicholls is in poor form. Stop wriggling and accept it.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
And your anwer just proves you don’t understand plain English!
Every year he inoculates his horses,and gives them a fortnight to recover. Judge the stable’s form on the whole month – not just that fortnight.Ffs, Ginger – what part of the term "whole month" don’t you understand?
If people think Kauto has every chance of completing the race at Cheltenham, are they forgetting that,earlier in his career, you could have bets on whether or not he would fall during the race, something that I’m not aware of happening with any other horse before or since
. The whole racing world used to hold it’s breath when he approached the last fence in his races. Having said that, I’m now resigned to the fact that he will run in the Gold Cup. Horses like Monets Garden and Mr McGoldrick may have caried on racing into their teens, but they were safe jumpers. I know PN has brought horses back before, but Denman and Master Minded were just that bit younger.
RE: AP McCoy
A jockey like no other – closest would be Piggot and he is not the reason Kauto didn’t win, but in my opinion he is the reason that Kauto didn’t finish second. Not that that really matters.
What matters is that even when McCoy is clearly beaten he’d rather throw everything at a horse, overuse his whip coming into a fence & ride like a demented chimp, than ride sensibly for second place. This is why he is champion jockey x 15 but it is also why he would never ride a horse of mine, and why I hope he never sits on Kauto Star again.
Were he a top-class handicapper, and he still enjoyed his racing, wouldn’t they lower their sites with him, and have him aimed at lower grade races?
It would be a kind of degrading come-down for a champion like Kauto to be aimed at Grade 3 or Listed races, wouldn’t it? I’m wondering if he will be pulled up or tailed off in the Gold Cup.
In the last three years Paul Nicholls strike rates for January have been:
07/08 17 wins from 65 runners,
26%
compared to the year’s strike rate of
25%
.
08/09 15 wins from 53,
28%
compared to again
25%
for the year.
09/10 9 wins from 42,
21%
compared to a
22%
strike rate for the year.
10/11 so far: 4 from 44
9%
Reet,
Trainer form does not have to be judged by months. Forget about it being "January" for one moment. Does not matter what the timescale is, it is the number of runners that counts.
In my four examples above:Out of
65
Nicholls runners he had 17 winners. A
26%
strike rate.
Out of53
runners he had 15 winners. A
28%
strike rate.
Out of42
runners he had 9 winners. A
21%
strike rate.
All these strike rates compare well with Nicholls seasonal strike rate.
Out of
44
runners this year he had only 4 winners. Only a
9%
strike rate.
To have a similar strke rate, in 44 runners PN should have had 2 1/2 times (10) the number of winners he’s had.
The NUMBERS tell you Nicholls is in poor form Reet.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I think reet’s point, Mark, is that the numbers you quote apply to the whole of January, not a specific part. Therefore, if the majority of Nicholls’s losers occur in the first two weeks there should be an upturn in the last two weeks (i.e. now).
I agree that Nicholls is out of form, but you can’t rely on monthly figures for the last 2/3 years and compare them to half-monthly figures this year.
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