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I backed against Kauto Star today, in part because there was a significant chance the 11 year old is on the downgrade.
However, there is one valid excuse as AJ says:Paul Nicholls isn’t exactly in sparkling form (only 4 winners from 35 runners in the last two weeks).
A lot of his have run below form recently, not just Kauto Star.
That’s tosh, really!
As PN has explained – every year, since he’s had a medium to do so – his horses are generally below form in January as the majority have their flu jabs, which they are given a couple of quiet weeks to get over, and every year since, people on this forum have cried "his horses are out of form".
Does anyone honestly believe Kauto would have been amongst them?Reet,
In my opinion the biggest or probable reason for Kauto Star’s "poor" performance is his age.All I am saying is there are other possibilities, that mean it is wise to keep Kauto Star in training just in case.
Trainers can be "out of form" for a short time Reet, no doubt Nicholls will soon be back in form. Trainers can’t always choose when they are in or out of form, otherwise all trainers would be in form in mid March.
Have you looked at the statistics Reet? Nicholls is
NOT
"generally out of form in January".
(Figures taken fron Timeform Statistical Review)
In the last three years Paul Nicholls strike rates for January have been:07/08 17 wins from 65 runners,
26%
compared to the year’s strike rate of
25%
.
08/09 15 wins from 53,
28%
compared to again
25%
for the year.
09/10 9 wins from 42,
21%
compared to a
22%
strike rate for the year.
10/11 so far: 4 from 44
9%
With this "flu jab" in the last three years there has not been any decrease in strike rates for January.
Those statistics tend to suggest he is in currently incomparitively POOR
form.
Not "tosh" at all Reet.
Value Is EverythingThey’ve also said he now goes
‘straight for the Gold Cup’
so there is no indication of them needing an excuse not to. I don’t think they’d invent something like that simply to avoid criticism if he doesn’t take his chance in March. Why on easrth would they need to?
Anyway, I’d be wary of writing him off completely.
Quite a few factors against him yesterday. He couldn’t overcome them as he probably would have done a year or two ago but if they aren’t there in March he might still have a big run in him. He wouldn’t have my money I’m afraid but that won’t stop him (in fact, it usually means they run 7lbs better!!).
Yesterday was the first time ever before a race that i knew
Kauto Star
was not going to win.
when a horse turns 11 i think this is the age its time to retire, only a few horses of this recent generation have been able to go close or on to win grade ones such asMister McGoldrick
and
Monet’s Garden
.
With the state of
Monet’s Garden
at the moment, surely this should be a wake up call to all older horses.
At top level physical sport such as racing, age proves to be a major factor.
The signs point towards Kauto Star having to be retired, after bleeding after yesterday’s race.
My favourite horse of all time will go for his 3rd
Cheltenham Gold Cup
but with younger, fresher and fitter horses in the field, surely Kauto cannot do it again, it was proved yesterday that he no longer has that extra half yard of turn of foot.
The only thing that could save him, is if
Ruby Walsh
comes back to nurse him for one last race.
Fingers crossed, that in March, that he comes home safe before anything.
- Total Posts 17716
Reet,
In my opinion the biggest or probable reason for Kauto Star’s "poor" performance is his age.All I am saying is there are other possibilities, that mean it is wise to keep Kauto Star in training just in case.
Trainers can be "out of form" for a short time Reet, no doubt Nicholls will soon be back in form. Trainers can’t always choose when they are in or out of form, otherwise all trainers would be in form in mid March.
Have you looked at the statistics Reet? Nicholls is
NOT
"generally out of form in January".
(Figures taken fron Timeform Statistical Review)
In the last three years Paul Nicholls strike rates for January have been:07/08 17 wins from 65 runners,
26%
compared to the year’s strike rate of
25%
.
08/09 15 wins from 53,
28%
compared to again
25%
for the year.
09/10 9 wins from 42,
21%
compared to a
22%
strike rate for the year.
10/11 so far: 4 from 44
9%
With this "flu jab" in the last three years there has not been any decrease in strike rates for January.
Those statistics tend to suggest he is in currently incomparitively POOR
form.
Not "tosh" at all Reet.
Ginger
If you must quote figures, at least compare like with like!
Last year, we lost a lot of racing in January, and the inoculations were timed to coincide. This year we are only half way through the month, so it’s far too early for you to shut his stable down.In reply to Ginger…i have no doubt Ruby Walsh is a far superior rider of this horse than AP McCoy. Absoutely have no qualms about saying i wouldn’t have put AP aboard ever if Ruby was availble. But i am not blaming AP.
Paul Nicholls is fast becoming a spoofer regarding his tactics. What was he thinking and now the excuses are coming out hand over fist. I was incredibly disappointed the way Kauto was ridden due to the trainers instructions. Their is a big difference between up with the pace and on the pace and i believe he was on the pace which gave him no chance to win yesterday. I may well be completly wrong but i am using my eyes rather than anything else.
With regards to binny..he sat on the pace in a 8 runner race. A cracking ride imo. I wouldn’t compare that tho and a King George. Didn’t Ruby say the ground was better than last year. I just found the whole thing baffling.
As an 11 year old Mister McGoldrick seemed to lose his form, which was the reason he went off at 66/1 to win at the Cheltenham Festival. No doubt there were calls for his retirement beforehand.
Monet’s Garden has run the odd bad race, yet come back to win. The odds are Kauto won’t be able to show his best again, but deserves the chance to do so.
Was age anything to do with Monet’s Garden’s injury? He’d been a sound horse up until now and was just the sort of veteran who enjoys his jumping – to keep in training. Saying he should’ve been retired is talking in hindsight. You’d just as well say the seven year old Peveril should’ve been retired before his sad demise yesterday.
Value Is EverythingGinger
If you must quote figures, at least compare like with like!
Last year, we lost a lot of racing in January, and the inoculations were timed to coincide. This year we are only half way through the month, so it’s far too early for you to shut his stable down.Nobody is suggesting he closes the stable.
Your answer just proves you don’t understand percentages. We’re talking strike rates, not simply number of winners.
Nicholls has had enough runners in every January (including this year with 44 runners) for percentage figures to mean a good deal.
Value Is EverythingTo all those clinging to any glimmer of hope that Kauto Star will win a third Gold Cup in March; well, far be it from me to be the harbinger of doom but, STOP DELUDING YOURSELVES !
If all the main contenders show up, Kauto Star has no chance. The stark reality is that he is now battle weary and age has caught up with him. Do you seriously think that another three and a quarter mile slog round Prestbury Park will bring out the best in him. Dream on dreamers !
In fact, I consider Denman to be the main contender from Paul Nicholls’s yard – even though I reckon Nigel Twiston Davies still holds the upper hand with Imperial Commander, who will be fresh as a daisy come March.
I am not yet convinced Long Run is wholly suited by Cheltenham but should he get his act together round there, then he must be considered a serious contender.
It’s him or The Commander for me. I’ll keep my powder dry.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
This thread has now become a debate on whether
Kauto Star
should or shouldn"t be retired,I started this thread saying he should and having witnessed yet another less than inspiring run from the King,who in his pomp travels like a Rolls Royce and pings 9 out of every 10 fences,i am astonished that connections still want to persevere with him,today it turns out he bled from both nostrils after the race,yet another clear as day reason to give him a well earned retirement! The way he jumped the 2nd last again confirmed to me he has had his day! Mark my words when i say Kauto Star will not complete the course in this years Gold cup, to put it mildly! Greed rules the world!
- Total Posts 17716
Your answer just proves you don’t understand percentages. We’re talking strike rates, not simply number of winners.
Nicholls has had enough runners in every January (including this year with 44 runners) for percentage figures to mean a good deal.
Ginger
And your anwer just proves you don’t understand plain English!
Every year he inoculates his horses,and gives them a fortnight to recover. Judge the stable’s form on the whole month – not just that fortnight.- Total Posts 17716
So the definition of ‘out of form’ changes depending on the perceived cause, reet? Whatever the reason – illness, innoculation, lack of work – Nicholls’s horses aren’t performing at the level expected of them.
They are, therefore, out of form.
In recent years I have looked forward to Gold Cup Day like no other purely because of all the Kauto/Denman hype and who would win. After last years fall and yesterdays mistake at the 2nd last I shall go into Gold Cup Day with the primary concern of not who will win but hoping Kauto returns home safe and sound and that for me is not what racing is about. Maybe I’m going soft but so be it. If Kauto was mine he would be retired immediately but I guess I can understand connections believing there is still a big run in him come March especially with doubts surrounding Long Run over course and distance and there not being much strength in depth in opposition. It will be interesting to see if Ruby keeps faith with Kauto or goes with Denman.
- Total Posts 17716
So the definition of ‘out of form’ changes depending on the perceived cause, reet? Whatever the reason – illness, innoculation, lack of work – Nicholls’s horses aren’t performing at the level expected of them.
They are, therefore, out of form.
Yes AJ, many of his horses are ‘out of form’ as a planned part of their training schedule – that part has nothing at all to do with Kauto’s defeat yesterday though.
- Total Posts 17716
The term ‘out of form’ is all inclusive, reet, failing to differentiate between scheduled downtime and circumstances beyond the trainer’s control. So, planned or not, Nicholls’s horses aren’t running to form; it’s undeniable.
Do you know for a fact that Kauto Star wasn’t part of Ditcheat’s inoculation programme?
I’m a horse owner. The vaccination must be given within a year of the previous vaccination. I would therefore have thought that Kauto was given the jab.
It’s unlikely to be the main issue. I know Nicholls has said he likes to give horses an easy time after a vaccination but with the newer drugs this is no longer deemed a necessity. It seems sensible however given the level at which NH horses need to perform
Some people are blaming the jockey or A.P McCoy. Kauto has fallen twice both at Cheltenham, once in the Queen Mother Champion Chase and once in the Gold Cup (when looking beaten ) and the jockey both times was Ruby Walsh.
He’s also unseated Sam Thomas and while he’s only fell twice the is usually one fence were your heart is in your mouth. Were as John Francome puts it he finds a leg.
So yesterday blunder was not the fault of McCoy.
Perhaps I was looking for excuses, but to my eyes Kauto Star looked a little stiff behind as he walked around the pre-parade.
Did anyone else see this?
Yes, when he was in the pre-parade ring I had some concern. He looked slightly unhappy on his off-hind foot.
During the race he travelled poorly and seemed to struggle with his action – particularly going around the bends.
I don’t think the poor performance is all age.
I’m glad someone else spotted it. As Fist said, surely the horse would not have been allowed to run if there was a real problem.
I remember thinking the same about Tango Royal before a veterans’ chase a few years back, but the commentators mentioned that the horse was a little arthritic – and that it would not affect his action in faster paces. Perhaps the on-course vet was aware of something similar with Kauto yesterday. He is eleven after all!
I noticed that as well , i thought that horse has a touch of stringhalt then realised it was Kauto.
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