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Nice bunch of names and most of all achived much more than Long Run has to date in the UK.
That apart the King George and Kauto Star presents one of the best opportunties of making money for old rope that you will ever have.
I’v backed him a few times a long time ago for this as I do every year. That I won’t do anything with because if he gets beat he owes me nothing having won the race 4 times already for me.
Nothing is certain in racing but sometimes you have to take a chance.
My intention is to take all the evens I can afford to between now and Boxing day then I will lay him in running at as low a price as I think I can get away with so all gets matched.
Ex. At 1.2 you are guaranteed 66 quid for every 100 quid you invest win or lose as long as he hits 1.2 in running. And there’s that much money involved in the betting in the King George getting matched should present no problem whatsoever.
Kauto Star has won 4 times Last year he took it up before 3 out, the year before before 3 out, the year before 5 out and the year before that 3 out.
I can see no reason why PN would change tactics and if he hits the front and the roar from the stands hits the air waves fingers will be that busy clicking they won’t have time to notice if anything else is going with him. I can see him hitting as low as 1.02 if he jumps the 3rd last a few lengths ahead
Was bored waiting for my washing to dry but that’s plan B and I’m sticking to it.
Quite a dangerous strategy IMO. What if Kauto doesn’t turn up or falls at an early fence? I think Kauto is mispriced at evens but maybe 10/11 NRNB is better with Ladbroke. Another way to hedge the Kauto risk is to back Long Run and Sizing Europe etc w/o Kauto at 7/2 and 8/1 etc. This is better value at current prices than backing them outright and also gives some upside if one of them comes second to Kauto.
- Total Posts 17716
Don’t back Kauto Star because he might fall but back Long Run the worst jumper in the race to beat him.
I don’t want to tempt fate Kasp but isn’t that a bit Irish?
I don’t want to tempt fate Kasp but isn’t that a bit Irish?
Not trying to be overly PC here, but one could consider that comment as quite offensive.
JohnJ
Oh dear; don’t want to tread on anyones toes here, but it reminds me of a hole I dug myself into a few years ago with an Irish work colleague. As a race, English people are wont to make fun of themselves..we laugh at ourselves before anyone else gets in first; I realised that I deeply offended my colleague by a throw away comment and apologised straight away, but it did leave me somewhat confused. [think I’d better start digging again…]
I am not offended. I expect the odd put down from senior members now and then. However, just so everyone knows, I tend to approach races from a statistical perspective rather than knowing much about horses. I don’t like taking risks and I often bet or arb on 6 or 7 or all horses in a race.
The point is the Kauto back-lay strategy potentially risks total wipeout. So can this risk be mitigated?
Now if you like Kauto, then it makes no sense to hedge in the win market by backing the others as you would think them underpriced. But the w/o Kauto prices are fair in the sense that they don’t reflect an opinion on Kauto. In fact in the case of Long Run at 7/2(4.5), versus 6/1 (7.0)for the win they are generous in my view. Similarly for Sizing Europe.
In my view you can get a more balanced return by backing Kauto himself plus others w/o Kauto. I have done so myself.
Now I have the benefit of Kauto running for me at evens when I think he should be odds on and I have the others running for me at a forecast overround of less than 100% in a different race without Kauto. Maybe it is Irish. I suppose the w/o Kauto bets are a separate issue to whether you think Kauto will win or not, but they provide some benefit whether he wins or loses so are a risk-reducing diversification.
Just to be clear though, I have recently slightly reversed some of these positions in the light of a drop in Long Run’s w/o Kauto odds on the exchange to 3.75.
I’m worried that if Kauto wins the Kempton executive might paint the Dessie statue brown as he will have overtaken Dessie for most King George wins…
Isn’t the statue of Dessie already brown, or reddish brown these days. Rust has (reportedly) taken its toll.
Value Is EverythingIf Long Run ( despite Master Waley-Cohen
) can run with the same verve and enthusiasm he showed in last year’s Feltham Chase, he might just give Kauto Star something to think about. What? Laugh if you want. Some of you positively guffawed when I said (categorically) that the "great unbeatable" Zenyatta would meet her one and only defeat in the Breeders Cup. In keeping with my nature, I retained a dignified and and non gloating silence afterwards.
You didn’t think you would get away with this, did you?
After the manner of her defeat, I can’t believe you’re taking credit for predicitng the defeat of Queen Z. Shame on you, H. Naughty, Naughty.
I remember you stating she would get beat after connections announced she would return (although you didn’t say when), but you were silent on the matter for the majority of the year after that.
What happened to the horse that you were so convinced would lower her colours? Lookin’ At…I can’t remember his name. However, I do remember falling for racings equivalent of the ‘great white hype’, myself….Lucky – that was it!!
Has he recovered yet from the scorch marks Big Z inflicted on his off side?
If I remember correctly, you also backed Blame. If you would like to donate some of your winnings, then visit westernunion.com and transfer a generous amount to ‘MIKE SMITH’. An even greater amount should be sent to ‘Bad Luck’, although I don’t know his / her preferred payment method.
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If gloating about that wasn’t shocking enough, my legs are like jelly after reading that the horse you fancy for the King George is…the second favoutite!!
You’re really sticking your neck out there, H.
Long Run: Decent chance. Likes Kempton. Unexposed. Makes errors. Must improve.
Can he beat Kauto Star? The potential is certainly there, but I echo what Ruby said on Saturday – Can you imagine Kauto in the Paddy Power Gold Cup with 11st 1lb on his back?
What’s the biggest winning distance ever recorded around Cheltenham?
Bosranic, I like your style.
It WAS a close run thing between you and Ginge. Short straw in the end. Im afraid.
Yes, I did have a saver on Blame as ( shoosh ! whisper it softly ), the faith I put in my stalking horse ( Lookin At Lucky ) was not matched with any great confidence to be honest.
As for poor old Mike Smith. Well, what can I say. Like the late Greville Starkey, he will be publicly vilified over one contentiously poor, yet crucial ride for evermore.
Both are/were very good jockeys in spite of that.
ps Long Run is an each way steal in the King George.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
ps Long Run is an each way steal in the King George.
Not being one for mincing my words,i sense negativeity in your post! Long Run will blunder his way round but there"s more chance of you wearing my crown than him actually winning and if by a miracle he does you are too modest to wear it,your heads not big enough either!
Heart in mouth at every fence stuff,dont invest too much Himself!A I said a while back, this looks like it’s going to be one of the smaller field King Georges with about 9 runners. Each way betting ante post is therefore potentially a good idea.
However, versus current exchange prices Long Run at 5/1 or even 6/1 e/w is not especially good value.I am trying to work out the most likely placers behind Kauto. Nacarat might go off too fast and fade at the end and Long Run could clip a fence, so I suppose that leaves Forpady, Sizing and Planet and maybe Albertas Run (20/1 nrnb) or Riverside Theatre (doubtful runner).
I am no expert on Long Run but I notice that fallers are very rare in the King George (none in the last 4 years) and he got round Kempton quite well last year, albeit in a much slower time than Kauto in similar ground conditions. In a small and mediocre field I would make him second favourite.
Bosranic, I like your style.
It WAS a close run thing between you and Ginge. Short straw in the end. Im afraid.
Yes, I did have a saver on Blame as ( shoosh ! whisper it softly ), the faith I put in my stalking horse ( Lookin At Lucky ) was not matched with any great confidence to be honest.
As for poor old Mike Smith. Well, what can I say. Like the late Greville Starkey, he will be publicly vilified over one contentiously poor, yet crucial ride for evermore.
Both are/were very good jockeys in spite of that.
ps Long Run is an each way steal in the King George.
It was painful nominating Mike Smith as my ‘Villain of the Year. Great guy, but that performance down the stretch…if he didn’t pull the whip through to his correct hand it would have been Swain all over again.
My ew steal of the race is Forpady. Barring incident, second is the best the rest can hope for – and Forpady is an expert in that department! Managed to get 12s, and might have a few quid on either Sizing Europe or Planet Of Sound, with a growing preference for the former.
If they go like the clappers like they did last year, you need a horse that can travel and jump at pace. These high quality two milers fit the bill, but then Kauto looms up three out…
Sad to hear that Dessie is going rusty. I’m not too keen on these large statues of horses at racetracks; prefer the smaller statues like the one of Arkle at Cheltenham. The one of Best Mate reminds me of one of those life size models of horses that they have at saddleries to display tack and rugs etc. and seems a bit twee what with having his ‘stable’ next to it as well.[sorry, I just needed to get that off my chest]
Sad to hear that Dessie is going rusty. I’m not too keen on these large statues of horses at racetracks; prefer the smaller statues like the one of Arkle at Cheltenham. The one of Best Mate reminds me of one of those life size models of horses that they have at saddleries to display tack and rugs etc. and seems a bit twee what with having his ‘stable’ next to it as well.[sorry, I just needed to get that off my chest]
Everytime I go to Cheltenham I see people having their photo taken ‘with Best Mate’ – I always give his nose a little rub whenever I go (although he doesn’t seem too keen on a polo these days).
It will hard to immortalize such a flashy looking individual like Kauto in the form of a statue. His white blaze is such a distinguishable feature that a statue just wouldn’t do him justice.
Something more original, please.
In exactly 2 weeks I’ll be celebrating Kauto Star making history and nursing a large hangover with a wedge in the back pocket, yee-haa!
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