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I’m with Fist, Long Run won’t beat Kauto if he starts now. Same with Imperial Commander whether he runs or not. This is as close to a one horse race as it gets.
W Hill offering 6/1 Imperial Commander w/o Kauto -looks good value if you like Kauto and IC.
Thieves, wonder what made William Hill make that juicy offer.
- Total Posts 17716
Long Run reminds me of the kind of horse the novice buyer who goes to the sales and picks up because he’s the one with the shiny coat. Looks the part but isn’t.
I think people should face the fact he’s simply not that good. He had everything you could possibly think of in his favour last time out, was 100% fit and was backed accordinly but still ended up being outjumped and outpaced.
Considering the horse is merely a five year old I think that is very premature IMHO. He has been a talking horse that has yet to deliver, however to suggest a horse that has amassed career winnings of over £700k is not that good is complete twoddle.
For what its worth, I would love to see Riverside Theatre take his chance in this, he was very impressive last time out at Kempton, he didn’t beat much, but he looked a most improved horse.
JohnJ
Of course he could improve but he’d have to do so out of all recognition to even be a half decent threat to Kauto Star in the King George.
Your argument is pretty poor to be honest as he won almost all of his winnings in France against horses who would do well to win a handicap in the UK. In the UK he’s beat Tazbar and Joe Joe Star and got stuffed when it really matters. Fair enough he was giving a lot of weight to Little Josh who NTD has always rated very highly but the 2nd is no world beater which hardly gives the for the look of a what’s expected to win a King George.
You probably rate him higher than Nicky Henderson does and if Kauto Star hasn’t regressed I expect him to win doing handstands again.
Riverside Theatre is interesting but it’s not like Nicky to throw them into unknown territory at this level. Could be Mr Nesbitt wants to entertain some clients on Boxing Day or Nicky like me thinks the race has a poor look about it and thought why not.
Only a matter of time until one of Nicky’s less fancied horses finishes ahead of Long Run and people like you and Walley Cohen get the messsage.
Funny old game racing but for Kauto Star on all known form this looks like the easiest King George field he’s had to face in the last 5 years.
Funny old game racing but for Kauto Star on all known form this looks like the easiest King George field he’s had to face in the last 5 years.
What? Tell me your kidding. Last year’s renewal was terrible, Barber’s Shop was placed for crying out loud.
Only a matter of time until one of Nicky’s less fancied horses finishes ahead of Long Run and people like you and Walley Cohen get the messsage.
As usual Fist you completely miss my point and continue to blow hot air. The horse is a five year old and in the infancy of his career. You seem consistently able to dismiss horses in the early stages of their careers.
Just to be clear, I don’t think Long Run will beat Kauto Star at Kempton.
JohnJ
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Why am I kidding?
Last year Kauto faced a horse who all but beat him in the Betfair Chase. That same horse who went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup doesn’t run instead we have a second fav who got stuffed silly in the RSA could get near Little Josh despite him supposidly being a handicap snip.
Last season we had a Ryanair winner a RSA winner a Hennessy Gold Cup winner and the seasons Gold Cup winner. All proven stayers.
This season you will be lucky if 8 turn up. Long Run who will need to improve about 3 stone to win and 3 horses none of which look like they will even get the trip and are running on a wing and a prayer.
If your going to come at me guns blazing mate try putting some bullets in your gun first ffs.
If I may Euro….
23 Imperial Commander (IRE) 13/2 8 11-10 N A Twiston-Davies 174 110 144 — »
b g Flemensfirth (USA) – Ballinlovane (Le Moss) Paddy BrennanMistake 2nd and rider nearly off, dropped to last trio and not always fluent after, never able to recover, reached remote 6th at 15th (op 8-1)
Cannot believe you are using IC to back up your argument Fist, he ran nothing like he ran when he won Gold Cup.
Keep shooting out of your air gun, your bound to hit something soon.
JohnJ
- Total Posts 17716
"johnjdonoghue":1ore7wnz wrote:
Only a matter of time until one of Nicky’s less fancied horses finishes ahead of Long Run and people like you and Walley Cohen get the messsage.
As usual Fist you completely miss my point and continue to blow hot air. The horse is a five year old and in the infancy of his career. You seem consistently able to dismiss horses in the early stages of their careers.
Just to be clear, I don’t think Long Run will beat Kauto Star at Kempton.
JohnJLike the gunfight at the Ok Coral here tonight. The thing is you don’t have a point you only think you have.
You say he will improve but give no other reason than his age which is no guarantee a horse will improve. If anything overfacing them too young can ruin their careers.
The reason I am writing the horse of is he isn’t learning despite being with the best schooling yard in the country.
I happen to watch horses very closely not just say things for the sake of saying them.
Long Run’s jumping has improved zero since joining Nicky Henderson. The Paddy Power……….got into the bottom of the first losing 3 places, went through the top of the 5th, clouted the 6th, bad mistake at the 7th, got into the bottom of the first down the back losing ground again, jumped the 5th last slow as a snail, and clouted the 2nd last.
You want to put your faith in a horse to become a Gold Gup horse of the future be my guest.
Sure he’s got an engine or he wouldn’t have got as close as he did in the Paddy Power.
His problem stems from all those races he had in France where horse brush through their fences as they don’t have to stand off them.
The fact he hasn’t adapated properly is either something to do with his make up or having made as many mistakes as he has he’s as thick as two short planks.
Either way he’s becoming a bit of a liabilty for punters to follow and talk of Gold Cups etc are pie in the sky unless he changes his jumping habits real soon.
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If I may Euro….
23 Imperial Commander (IRE) 13/2 8 11-10 N A Twiston-Davies 174 110 144 — »
b g Flemensfirth (USA) – Ballinlovane (Le Moss) Paddy BrennanMistake 2nd and rider nearly off, dropped to last trio and not always fluent after, never able to recover, reached remote 6th at 15th (op 8-1)
Cannot believe you are using IC to back up your argument Fist, he ran nothing like he ran when he won Gold Cup.
Keep shooting out of your air gun, your bound to hit something soon.
JohnJ
What the hell has that got to do with how a race looked going into it?
Shame you couldn’t work that out…..just in case you haven’t noticed they still have to run this years race and I am talking about how each race looked prior to them being run……… nothing to do with the actual result numbnuts.
I think the current King George winner wasn’t too clever when he arrived from France, his jumping has dramatically improved as his career progressed, apart from Cheltenham last year.
I am not suggesting that Long Run is a future Gold Cup winner, again, you totally miss the point I am making, what I am suggesting is that he could improve.
Yeah Fist, its always worthwhile looking at the merits of a race before its been run rather than after the race to judge how good that race actually was. Personally I will reserve judgement until after this years King George to firm up my opinion.
P.S. What is a numbnuts? Keep going Fisty, bang bang on that air gun of yours…
Your argument is pretty poor to be honest as he won almost all of his winnings in France against horses who would do well to win a handicap in the UK. In the UK he’s beat Tazbar and Joe Joe Star and got stuffed when it really matters. Fair enough he was giving a lot of weight to Little Josh who NTD has always rated very highly but the 2nd is no world beater which hardly gives the for the look of a what’s expected to win a King George.
Fist I guess you don’t follow French racing very carefully, or you’d have noticed that Long Run only ever ran in top class races and was the first horse to win both the 3-y-o champion hurdle and then the 4-y-o champion chase. The horse he regualrly beat in his chases ‘Rubi Ball’ just won the Grade 1 by 15 lengths. His French form is absolutely top class. Still got to prove he’s as good over here, but at least understand why he has such a big reputation.
I suspect Kauto’s got a shade too many Grade 1 miles on the clock. We shall see, (alas….?)
Also, Daytripper, our top trainers seem to get most of their fastest horses, including Kauto, from la belle France.
"Fist I guess you don’t follow French racing very carefully, or you’d have noticed that Long Run only ever ran in top class races and was the first horse to win both the 3-y-o champion hurdle and then the 4-y-o champion chase. The horse he regualrly beat in his chases ‘Rubi Ball’ just won the Grade 1 by 15 lengths. His French form is absolutely top class. Still got to prove he’s as good over here, but at least understand why he has such a big reputation." – Daytripper
"Long Run reminds me of the kind of horse the novice buyer who goes to the sales and picks up because he’s the one with the shiny coat. Looks the part but isn’t." – Fist
How about that for beginner’s luck, Fist? And just because he had a shiny coat! Not meant maliciously. Just routine p*ss-taking.
Why am I kidding?
Last year Kauto faced a horse who all but beat him in the Betfair Chase. That same horse who went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup doesn’t run instead we have a second fav who got stuffed silly in the RSA could get near Little Josh despite him supposidly being a handicap snip.
Last season we had a Ryanair winner a RSA winner a Hennessy Gold Cup winner and the seasons Gold Cup winner. All proven stayers.
You posted earlier about how the race looked last year before it was run.
Albertas Run had been beaten by Deep Purple on his previous start and had been miles behind Kauto in a previous renewal. It was obvious he would be a non-factor. His presence added nothing to the race.
Nacarat had shown nothing that season before the KG and had mountains to climb from a form point of view. His presence was a plus but only in a look at the pretty white horse at the front kind of way.
Madison finished out with the washing in the Betfair Chase and looked the very definition of a one season wonder.Last year’s renewal was full of proven stayers like you said, but on all known form they all had no chance.
In Long Run, Sizing Europe and Forpadydeplasterer we have animals running in this sort of contest for the first time and I think that adds a tad more excitement.
Can someone go through the race and tell me how Kauto loses, I just can’t envisage it.
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Why am I kidding?
Last year Kauto faced a horse who all but beat him in the Betfair Chase. That same horse who went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup doesn’t run instead we have a second fav who got stuffed silly in the RSA could get near Little Josh despite him supposidly being a handicap snip.
Last season we had a Ryanair winner a RSA winner a Hennessy Gold Cup winner and the seasons Gold Cup winner. All proven stayers.
You posted earlier about how the race looked last year before it was run.
Albertas Run had been beaten by Deep Purple on his previous start and had been miles behind Kauto in a previous renewal. It was obvious he would be a non-factor. His presence added nothing to the race.
Nacarat had shown nothing that season before the KG and had mountains to climb from a form point of view. His presence was a plus but only in a look at the pretty white horse at the front kind of way.
Madison finished out with the washing in the Betfair Chase and looked the very definition of a one season wonder.Last year’s renewal was full of proven stayers like you said, but on all known form they all had no chance.
In Long Run, Sizing Europe and Forpadydeplasterer we have animals running in this sort of contest for the first time and I think that adds a tad more excitement.
Perhaps it will but realistiacally we have Forpady who has been beaten into 2nd place 11 times. He put up a decent show at Aintree and looked to have every chance at the last but on the run to the line actually lost ground on the 3rd who he had gone past betweeen the last two. I’m not sure he’ll get the trip and even if he does is it likely to bring about any improvement? Alberta’s Run beat him off levels and he was beaten 62 lengths and 8 lengths in his 2 tries at the King George.
Sizing Europe travels as well as any horse in racing and while he appeared to get the trip at Downroyal they never went a great gallop that day. If the like of Long Run and Nacarat go hell for leather I can’t see him staying on the bridle long enough to see the trip out. They say Kempton is an easy track but year after year horses end up tailed offf in the King George unable to put one leg in front of the other is the closing stages.
The other huge minus for him is Kuato wouldn’t be anywhere near as fit at Downroyal as he is likely to be at Kempton.
Then we have the unknown Riverside Theatre but can we even take his challenge seriously? For a horse who has never run over the trip and is rated 30lbs inferior to Kauto Star he should be 66/1 for the race.
Don’t know if he runs tomorrow if Huntingdon survives. He would have to win it well to justify his KG entry IMO.
To be honest I’m more intersted in seeing how Mad Max runs on Saturday because if by any chance he hacked up off top weight Nicky may well let him take his chance at Kempton. Man has a wealth of talkent and very seldom is anything set in stone until it happens.
Most of the people who are against Long Run are only against him because of his hype and get really defensive over the likes of Kauto and Denman.
He’s like the Beatles. You either love them or hate them… i personally don’t mind them.
I sure if Long Run was about 10 years ago
everyone
would be getting trouser problems over him… but i dunno.
Fact is he’s a good horse with tons of potential whether he places in inadequate distances or not.
I suppose we’ve already covered the Kauto Star who was on his downfall after unseating in the Betfair? Ooh and the overblown Big Bucks when he came down in the Hennessy?
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