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No value with Clever Cookie now, but if it is proper soft bordering on heavy then Madame Chaing could also be a good e/w bet (33/1 with Ladbrokes) as her three wins have come twice on soft & once on heavy ground – she has even won over course & distance in Fillies & Mare race on Champion’s Day last year.
Snow Sky has two vastly differing pieces of form in these conditions, he won a 2 yr old maiden at Salisbury by 11L on heavy ground but then finished 8th of 11 (beaten 12L) behind Kingston Hill in Racing Post Trophy on soft ground.
For GH, the conditions he will face are the exact ones that connections gave as the reason why an Arc run is unlikely, wouldn’t surprise me if they pull him out in the morning.
What is this horse Dylan Mouth [horrid name]? Has won on all sorts of ground. Missed Madame Chiang when she won on soft last year; not going to miss a bet this time!
Golden Horn, if pulled, will probably be pulled out at the last minute. The difference between the ground on British champions day ’14 and the ground likely for tomorrow is there wont be any rain from about 4am onwards and it will be warmer so they should wait if they are happy to go on soft but drying ground.
Then again, if they are told there is no way the ground will dry sufficiently by race time they might just call it quits asap.
The going was described as “heavy” by Paul Hanagan following the 4.35 race. Flintshire has been pulled out of the race, not surprising given his best form is on faster ground.
I can’t see Golden Horn running if it is soft or heavy, I reckon good to soft would be the minimum requirement. Anyone who took 5/1 on him must be cursing the weather and the race will be seriously devalued if the favourite pulls out.
Snow Sky was my original each-way selection and his St Leger and Yorkshire Cup form make him the one I would want to be with tomorrow. Michael Stoute’s improver is 10 lbs higher in the ratings than Clever Cookie and is three years younger. I can’t fathom why Peter Niven’s admirable gelding is shorter than Snow Sky in some places.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The going was described as “heavy” by Paul Hanagan following the 4.35 race. Flintshire has been pulled out of the race, not surprising given his best form is on faster ground.
I can’t see Golden Horn running if it is soft or heavy, I reckon good to soft would be the minimum requirement. Anyone who took 5/1 on him must be cursing the weather and the race will be seriously devalued if the favourite pulls out.
Snow Sky was my original each-way selection and his St Leger and Yorkshire Cup form make him the one I would want to be with tomorrow. Michael Stoute’s improver is 10 lbs higher in the ratings than Clever Cookie and is three years younger. I can’t fathom why Peter Niven’s admirable gelding is shorter than Snow Sky in some places.
Completely agree. Actually annoyed I took Snow Sky at 8-1 yesterday as that will be devalued to 2-1 by the time of the race. Might have to go in again as can see him going off at 4-1 5-1 (assuming Golden horn has already been pulled out) as he will drift as money comes in for the “sexier horses”
Then again on soft ground could turn into a bit of a lottery.
I’d be amazed if Golden Horn runs if it is soft/heavy. imo Has the archetypal action of a top-of-the-ground performer. If it is a truly run race will place emphasis on stamina too. Still should be favourite, but does not have anywhere near as good a chance now and no value at current prices.
The Corsican progressed on a firmish surface, but improving fast; sould’ve been just behind Free Eagle and The Grey Gatsby with a clear run in Prince Of Wales. Unexposed at this trip too and at around 20/1 worth taking a chance. Stable companion Madame Chiang is proven on soft, but will she be good enough? Ditto Clever Cookie, those on at big prices have a good bet, but he’s plenty short enough now and needs to rely on something setting a good pace; Niven stable is not in as good form either.
Snow Sky may have been flattered by winning distances in the Hardwicke; but is improving and imo more likely to benefit from ground conditions than those he beat (Eagle Top and Postponed). I was at Salisbury when Snow Sky ran away with his maiden on heavy ground and have no doubt he’ll act on it. Emphasis on stamina the conditions give another bonus. Romsdal and possibly the Italian horse Dylan Mouth the only other pace angles I can see. Around 8/1 too big to ignore for Stoute’s charge.
Value Is EverythingYeah I am on CC at 50’s which is obviously great IF GH runs. I have to say I very much doubt he will. If I owned him he wouldn’t run. It could ruin him for the rest of the season as it did Camelot. Tomorrow will be like a 2 mile novice hurdle in December without the hurdles which is why I backed a horse trained by a NH trainer with a NH jockey!! Class and form are likely to be thrown out of the window. I think the fact that tomorrow will be dry will make it even worse. It will be that horrible sticky ground rather than the slightly slicker stuff that you get if it is still raining. I think Ginge is on the spot with Snow Sky who certainly handled it as a 2 year old. Of course Clever Cookie shouldn’t win and it will be a poor renewal if he does, but tomorrow will not really be a proper KG given the conditions so really anything could happen.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Yeah I am on CC at 50’s which is obviously great IF GH runs. I have to say I very much doubt he will. If I owned him he wouldn’t run. It could ruin him for the rest of the season as it did Camelot. Tomorrow will be like a 2 mile novice hurdle in December without the hurdles which is why I backed a horse trained by a NH trainer with a NH jockey!! Class and form are likely to be thrown out of the window. I think the fact that tomorrow will be dry will make it even worse. It will be that horrible sticky ground rather than the slightly slicker stuff that you get if it is still raining. I think Ginge is on the spot with Snow Sky who certainly handled it as a 2 year old. Of course Clever Cookie shouldn’t win and it will be a poor renewal if he does, but tomorrow will not really be a proper KG given the conditions so really anything could happen.
I must admit I have fond memories of Peter Niven as he rode Cab on target for Mary Reveley, one of my favourite horses when I was a kid.
Clever Cookie has about 10 pounds to make up with Snow Sky and over a stone to find with Golden Horn, the ratings are probably about right so the question is whether the conditions will allow him to make the ground up, my guess is he’d get a lot closer than under normal conditions but not close enough.
There is much debate about the actual going at Ascot. It was given as soft, described by Paul Hanagan as heavy but Topspeed (Dave Edwards) has said that the time for the penultimate race indicated that the ground was no worse than good to soft by the end of the day.
Golden Horn is available at Evens with Paddy Power and I would have had a few hundred quid on that back in my heyday, trusting that if the trainer felt the ground was suitable then his class would see him desperately hard to beat and screaming value at evens off 8st 9lb
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agreed Stevie – times suggest it was not too bad BUT as I said it is that slick, soft stuff now. It is still raining heavily and is not due to stop til about 1am. By 3.50 tomorrow I am guessing it will be pretty sticky and I guess you will see much slower times.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I hope Ascot have kept some fresh ground for the race else Gosden will come out with some crap like ‘Ascot should have abandon Friday’s racing and the first four races of Saturday until after Golden Horn had run, you cant help the weather but Ascot should have pre planned this’ you heard it here first…..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I can’t believe the price of Clever Cookie and Madame Chiang backed also. Neither have any chance in this grade regardless of the conditions.
The ground looks sure to be soft (possibly on the good to soft side) but it certainly isn’t going to be heavy unless there’s more rain to come, which isn’t forecast.
IF Mr Gosden and Mr Oppenheimer keep their heads, think logically and resist the temptation to over-react as so many people have they’ll run Golden Horn and Golden Horn will win.
You could well be right IB and it is all a big over-reaction. Certainly GH SHOULD win this easily and if conditions were different the only bet I would be looking at would be winning distance. But adverse conditions are a great leveller in all sports especially horse-racing. They had a huge amount of rain yesterday and I really don’t see “good” being in the going description at all. Hopefully class will out and we can all salute a fantastic horse again but I would be very wary of lumping loads on anything today. I have a feeling you can throw the form book out of the window. As always time will tell.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Been watching some videos and Eagle Top has a very pronouced action- that concerns me for my Snow Sky bet.
A running on fourth last year and Gosden can seemingly do nothing wrong these days.
Fresh ground hasbeen made available for the King George. The clerk of the course has said there isn’t much chance of the ground drying out and it seems it will be proper soft ground.
The times from the earlier races will give an indication of how it’s riding and Gosden will walk the track and make a decision an hour before the race.
It makes it almost impossible for punters to get an early bet on this and this is a case where the much-maligned Ante-Post betting has put those willing to take the risk in a better position than those who could face massive rule 4 deductions if Gosden decides not to play the Horn today.
Snow Sky each-way 10/1 no rule 4 is looking pretty good for anyone who played their cards that way.
I think they should run Golden Horn, he is the only genuine group 1 horse in the race in my opinion. If he fails through stamina issues then fair enough, I can’t see how the horse will be ruined by it.
Gosden has said the horse is in better nick now than he was in the Eclipse and he really should be capable of coming there absolutely swinging on the bridle unless the ground prevents him using his action properly. Even money is pretty good in my opinion for a horse who was 2/5 at the start of the week. Money back if they pull him out and Gosden should know his onions as well as Dermot Weld knows the price of fish.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Corsican also scratched due to the going
I really hope Golden Horn runs as without him, it is a damp squib of a race
The one thing about soft ground is that you have no concerns about the horse getting injured or getting jarred up because of quick ground, a genuine concern when you have a potential sire as valuable as the favourite clearly is, which is another reason why they may very well take the risk and run the thing.
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