- This topic has 178 replies, 40 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Regarding the race, I couldn’t back any horse in a Group 1 with stamina doubts
Agree, especially when up against those that will be able to cut out a stamina test
Whats the concensus on DOM’s breeding for the trip?
Regarding the race, I couldn’t back any horse in a Group 1 with stamina doubts
Agree, especially when up against those that will be able to cut out a stamina test
Whats the concensus on DOM’s breeding for the trip?
The only one of AOB’s runners who is proven over 12f is Macarthur and on form Lucarno has the beating of him. The rest have obvious stamina doubts so they will want a slowly run race but I don’t think the stamina horses are going to let them have that. If DOM doesn’t stay then there are others in this race who look to have better chances than any of AOB’s other runners.
Regarding the race, I couldn’t back any horse in a Group 1 with stamina doubts, let alone at odds-on. Duke of Marmalade may well win and if he does then I’m happy to shrug my shoulders and take it on the chin.
However it’s Youmzain for me here. If he had been given a better ride in the Coronation Cup (closer to the pace) he would be going for a Gr1 hat-trick on Saturday so if connections have found the key by racing closer to the pace, then I can’t really see the horse getting beaten.Its well documented by both trainer and jockey that Youmzain cannot be ridden close to the pace.
JohnJ.
Well closer than 10 lengths off the lead turning Tattenham Corner is more what I had in mind as opposed to "pressing leaders" or some such comment but I take your point that mt point was badly phrased.
He’s a very complicated ride, that Youmzain and is not sure to get things falling right for him on Saturday given the likely small field. Whatever you say DJ the record of older horses in this sucks and I’m happy to let a win for a 5 year old cost me money. I doubt any of you would want to be laying me the 7/2 a place about Lucarno now.
BTW, Ask seems noticeably weak in the betting the last few days- looks to me like they’ve had a problem or he’s not a certain runner.Carvs, I wouldn’t lay anyone the place at 7/2 in a race like this with an odds on bet. It’s EW thievery. If Ask wins or loses, (it looks like he might not even run) it will be because of a number of factors on the day, chiefly whether he was good enough and acted on the ground etc, and not because of some arbitrary stat that suggests 5-y-o’s can’t win the King George. The keeping of top-class older horses in training and the changing of the shape of this race in the last few years means this is not the sort of race it was many years ago. I’ll fancy a damn site more 5-y-os win the race over the next 50 years than the last. Have you laid Youmzain as well then presumably?
The ground is now due to be gd-fm (according to sporting life) and I have had to review the race.
I think the key to the race is lucarno. Lucarno needs to win the early battle to set the pace and then set a fast pace. If ballydoyle get to set up a false pace then the duke has every chance of still being full of running in the last few furlongs and we know he is the fastest.
If the ground is Gd-Fm then people will have to bet on either possibility, slow or fast pace. DOM now has the ground in his favour but I would be in no hurry to get ploughed in on him, because I still think a fast pace should find him out, and the fast pace lovers are not without front runners to represent them.
The race Im thinking of now (in the hope that lucarno does set a fast clip) with regards this one is the 2006 King Edward, good-fm and a bang in form red rocks set a blistering enough pace from the front, and was swallowed up by Papal Bull, Youmzain completely failed to go on the track/surface that day, but turned the form around with cut underfoot at york some months later.
Last time out Papal Bull just couldnt get to lucarno, but this is a much more competetive race and he could be the forgotten horse.
Am gutted the ground hasnt come up in favour of Youmzain as think he would have been a worth a fair few quid, and is the smartest in this race on his best conditions.
I do not worry about 5yos in this race, its the class of the horses that is of issue and the 5yos are well enough represented in terms of class this year.
Carvs, I wouldn’t lay anyone the place at 7/2 in a race like this with an odds on bet. It’s EW thievery. If Ask wins or loses, (it looks like he might not even run) it will be because of a number of factors on the day, chiefly whether he was good enough and acted on the ground etc, and not because of some arbitrary stat that suggests 5-y-o’s can’t win the King George. The keeping of top-class older horses in training and the changing of the shape of this race in the last few years means this is not the sort of race it was many years ago. I’ll fancy a damn site more 5-y-os win the race over the next 50 years than the last. Have you laid Youmzain as well then presumably?
The only other bet I’d consider at current prices is backing the favourite, who is approaching value at odds-against IMO, but I’ll probably leave it at Lucarno. Looking at Betfair, Ask must be a doubt, Mount Nelson and Literato don’t run and Macarthur is also easy to back. Red Rock Canyon trades big even for a pacemaker- how many runners will there be?
Rethink.
Small field, good-to-firm, Aidan O’Brien’s admission in today’s RP … surely this will become a tactical nightmare that no punter with half the wits about him would touch with a barge pole?
I did say I was considering Youmzain once earlier in this thread but had not played due to price. Nothing’s changed.
Is Papal Bull running or was that something my dreams mustered up?
Perhaps he means the comment that it was possible that the Duke would be their only runner- he said Macarthur and RRC were "only possibles" and that the Arlington Million was more likely to be Mount Nelson’s next target. Have to say that the absence of RRC would be a major plus for Lucarno, IMO- far more likely to get an uncontested lead.
Will have to have a good look at the race tomorrow. At the moment I reckon evens or above may well be value for DOM. The off course mob are running scared of Ballydoyle and talking up almost every other horse in the race. Its been very apparent in the RP since Sunday. Their big headline about DOM’s stamina is complete bollox if you read the AOB comment its based on.
After the Duke won at the Curragh Johnny Murtagh in an interview said this is a great horse. He was stopped in mid sentence by Robert Hall; he is very good? No he is a great horse Murtagh repeated.After the Coronation Cup Murtagh said Sof F was very good and left it at that.Not a great horse, just very good.If Aidan goes without a pacemaker on Saturday it only means he does not need one. I believe that both Aidan and Johanny think he won’t be beaten.{They went without a pacemaker for Mount Nelson}.Johanny also said he idled in front at Ascot; that must mean something .
- Total Posts 17716
I was surprised to see Duke Of Marmalade win the Prince Of Wales so easily, but I’m in good company as so was the trainer of the 2nd, Henry Cecil.
I can’t see anything in his form to suggest he won’t stay this 12f on fast ground, either. Certainly, there is more doubt about the others being up to his class on this ground and at this trip than there is about DOM’s stamina.I can’t see anything in his form to suggest he won’t stay this 12f on fast ground, either. Certainly, there is more doubt about the others being up to his class on this ground and at this trip than there is about DOM’s stamina.
I say this rarely, but I agree totally with that.
O’Brien was quoted on the RP site yesterday as saying he wasn’t sure he’d get the trip. Personally, I think he’s going to take them all apart on saturday.
The best bet of the week may be to back him for the Arc and then lay him off after because when he wins by 5 lengths his price will crash.
The most poignant comment O’Brien made in the interview (I haven;t got access at work so this is paraphrasing from memory) was that they knew how good the Duke was carrying an injury and so when they fixed the plates in his legs they knew they had a serious horse. He isn’t really bred to get 12f but I don’t think that will make any difference come saturday.
1st DOM
2nd Papal Bull
3rd Lucarno
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.