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Interesting you should mention Saddex beating Pressing by a head. How far behind the Duke was Pressing in the Prince of Wales? You are producing your own formlines that show he’s a progressive horse yet still fail to believe it.
I’d rather take truly-run race form against reliable pattern horses that may be vulnerable at the top level at face value over form against other Group 1 winners where it smacks of only one horse running their race.
Certainly looks a straight fight between Youmzain and DOM. I don’t think the going will be the deciding factor as both have won on various ground but there must be some doubt about DOM getting the trip unlike Youmzain who if given a good ride could be the one to end AOB’s run of Group 1 successes in middle distance races.
I’d rather take truly-run race form against reliable pattern horses that may be vulnerable at the top level at face value over form against other Group 1 winners where it smacks of only one horse running their race.
Would you rather that than taking form lines through pacemakers then?
As for progressive, i wouldnt doubt that he ran better at Ascot than at longchamp. Most of Aidans have done so after their first run of course. But is he better over 10f than last year? A line through Marahel and Pipdreamer might suggest not (although its all getting tenuous)
That uncertainty and his possible stamina doubts make him a rotten odds on bet imo
The Duke has undoubtedly progressed. I think that is abundantly obvious to the naked eye. The fact that his legs were hurting him last year plus development from 3 to 4 makes it more than feasible that he has progressed a fair bit.
Staying the distance will be what beats him. Or Youmzain could finally fulfil his potential.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8feCATCox94
I would suggest you watch again. Looks comfortable enough for me. SOF was well placed and simply not good enough
Having reviewed it I make no alteration to initial judgement. Certainly looked to get outpaced turning in. SOF is a confirmed mudlark and wouldn’t exactly have much of a turn of foot on good ground. It was a good performance by Youmzain no doubt but just couldn’t see DOM being as paceless.
Thought I’d ask what members opinions are of Ask?
Lightly raced Stoute trained horse, could yet improve at a strongly run 1m4f.
1m2f on his two starts this term has not been far enough, where as 1m4f could be too far for the favourite. Though even with The Duke’s possible stamina limitations, still has the best chance of winning, just not value to win.
Mark
Value Is EverythingMick Channon may have discovered the key to Youmzain with his victory in France, but it doesn’t disguise the fact that the horse is still a difficult ride.
When Youmzain is finally produced, The Duke may already have a considerable advantage and prove very hard to catch – if he stays. The ground should not be too big a factor as far as DOM is concerned. His defeat of Saddex in France was on soft ground and he also ran a solid third behind Ramonti last year on similar ground.
It’s interesting that, despite similar conditions, Youmzain was beaten 4L by Dylan Thomas in last years KG, yet only found that rival a head too good in the Arc.
Is Ascot the right place for a hold-up horse like Youmzain? Does it play to the horses strengths?
Hughes may ride the perfect race, but it may not be enough to beat a very good, potentially improving horse like DOM.
I believe the real question with Duke of Marmalade is not; "Is he good enough?" It’s "how well will he get the trip?" Honestly think if he stays well, he probably wins. There’s lots of conjecture about DoM getting 12f, but imo no evidence at this stage
Rather ironically, it’s probably the Stoute horses and Youmzain that need a pacemaker in this race (or a strong pace), rather than DoM. Ballydoyle pacemakers do normally set a strong pace, but I wonder whether they will decide a less thorough test would suit DoM better in the King George? They could end up running a pacemaker to set a modest or false pace, while maybe helping DoM, it may inconvienece the likes of Ask, Youmzain and Papal Bull.
Duke Of Marmalade ran a fast time in the Prince Of Wales and he finished like a train. I dont see any problems for him getting 12f. This is an important race for stallion making purposes. I’m sure he wouldnt be running if Ballydoyle had any doubts about the trip.
Duke Of Marmalade ran a fast time in the Prince Of Wales and he finished like a train. I dont see any problems for him getting 12f. This is an important race for stallion making purposes. I’m sure he wouldnt be running if Ballydoyle had any doubts about the trip.
The time of the prince of wales is quite insignificant IMO as the ground was track record setting ground. Didnt Henry and Ravens Pass beat the track record for a mile the day before (pretty sure I heard that somewhere), many people would say that ravens pass doesnt truley get a mile, which indeed he proved twice at newmarket on worse ground yet at ascot he wasnt stopping for a second and would easily have seen out 9f or more on it..
If the Duke is to have any chance of seeing out 1m4f he needs gd-fm or better ground, and probably a slow pace, and probably every other decent 1m4f horse to be sitting well off that slow pace. If the ground is good or worse hes the lay of the month.
DOM is a proper enough group1 horse, and consistent to boot, but he has done little more than uphold his placings of last year on every occasion this year, against far lesser horses than he faced last year.
Youmzain for all his quirks is a horse who was capable of beating the better horses of last year, he doesnt really like gd-fm or better, but this is youmzains trip, it is not DOMs trip.
The way I see it.
Gd-FM- Youmzain will fail to run to his best form, but still may ber capable of winning. If everything else is given a bad ride, duke of marmalade could steal it at a slow pace as Electrocutionist almost done two years ago.
Good or Worse. Youmzain has everything in his favour he gets the trip extremely well and is a class above the opposition, should win it fairly easily. Ask could also get involved if the pace is genuine. DOM will not stay unless the pace is laughably slow.
Sorry for labouring the point but they went a decent pace in the Prince of Wales right from the start and Duke of Marmalade finished very strongly. Visually on that evidence I dont see any problems for him at 12f.
I see him struggling to stay against Saddex in the Prix Ganay, when the latter horse was finding difficulty in getting out for half the Longchamp straight. And that was a race run at a strong clip by Spirit One.
Sorry for labouring the point but they went a decent pace in the Prince of Wales right from the start and Duke of Marmalade finished very strongly. Visually on that evidence I dont see any problems for him at 12f.
The time was 1/2 second inside standard but on that ground you would be amazed if it wasn’t. He did finish strongly and over 10f looks to be the best around but he is unproven over 12f and on breeding there is a doubt about him getting it. They don’t normally hang around in this race so he won’t imo get the chance to steal it off a slow pace especially as the others will want to ensure it is a test of stamina . All in all at 8/11 he may be Barry’s Bismark.
There was a lot of dolling on the round course that day which may have impacted on the times. Visually the pace looked a good one and he did finish strongly.
I agree there’s very little latitude for mistakes at that price and I wont be backing Duke of Marmalade at odds on, but I do think he’s a better horse then he’s being given credit for by some of the forum members.
Have to admit that I liked Losestanley’s analysis of the race in the Post today and have followed him in for Lucarno each-way at 14s 1/4 the odds. As he says there may not be many runners. In addition he might get the run of the race out in front and might take some pegging back if 2l clear round the bend…
John Gosden believes this race has become exclusively for older horses and the Grand Prix is now the key race. He is quoted as saying "This is around the time you want to hit the pause button with three-year-olds and hold fire until September, looking towards the Arc and the Breeders’ Cup." and "You might go for the Eclipse with a horse who didn’t stay in the Derby, but the Grand Prix will get the best 12-furlong horses."
The bit about taking a pause with 3yos is nonsense as the races are less than 2 weeks apart. It strikes me all he is really saying is owners & trainers now tend to avoid taking on the older horses over 12f with their top 3yos at this stage of the season and wait for the Arc and the Breeders Cup.
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