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Now I am convinced that Johnny Murtagh is the Eddy Merckx of the jockey ranks. Aggressive at all costs, even if you impede others along the way.
In this case, two: Ask and then Youmzain.
Horrible because with the exception of the first two home, none of these were able to prove their worth.
Reading Aidan O’Brien’s "admission" – I guess that was a bit of Nick Robson manipulation.
Papal Bull is there – and looks a top E-W shot at 10/1 with bet365.
It’s more gut feeling and speculative ideas than form telling the story. But I’m strangely confident he’ll break through here.
Three cheers for your gut feeling … !!!
Almost.
I guess that’s the word of the day for me. Almost. Almost had it right using the Prix Ganay as a guideline to if Duke Of Marmalade could stay, and he nearly threw in the kitchen sink. Same with Papal Bull.
Just a gut feeling that SMS had the Bull primed for this race. And he sure did.
In all honesty, Duke Of Marmalade has stayed on. Has a mixture of both worlds, speed and stamina. He would have to be Aidan O’Brien’s numero uno for the Irish Champion?
The Duke is a special horse, isn’t he?
Overrated? Not a chance.
During the past year he’s proved himself capable of competing at the highest level over eight, ten and now twelve furlongs.
His 3YO career was impressive given his problems. Fourth in two Guineas and third in a QEII, won by the best miler in the world at the time.
What would the horse have accomplished without these problems?
This season, his form has been solid. Four runs, four wins, four Group One prizes. He’s defeated Saddex (winner since), Finsceal Beo (dual Guineas winner), Phoenix Tower (enough speed to run second to a top class horse in the Lockinge, second in the Eclipse) and Pipedreamer (third in the Eclipse, winner since).
Solid form for a solid horse.
Was Peslier to blame for Papal Bull’s defeat? Nope, not a chance. I’ve seen Fallon, Murtagh and Moore all ride this horse and none of them got a tune out of him like Olivier.
So, did Papal Bull dodge a fight? Nope, not a chance. If you get the chance, have a look at the replay. The horse got his head down and stuck it out right to the line. He was simply beaten by a horse who ‘falls asleep’ in front and responded to the whip once headed.
What about Youmzain? I warned everyone about his race record. Combine that with the fact that Ascot is the wrong place to apply the tactics he needs and you have one horse who simply couldn’t beat another as good as DOM.
DOM has won a firm ground and soft ground. He’s won Group One races over ten and twelve furlongs, also competitive at eight. You can do whatever you like with him over any distance and he’ll run his race and fight to win.
It appears he can do just about anything.
Aiden must send him to the Breeders’ Cup Classic – he’s never had a horse so well equipped.
A wonderful horse who, I believe, isn’t getting the credit he deserves.
Duke Of Marmalade is a true superstar.
Duke of Marmalade was a worthy winner, but did notice 7f from home Hughes imo could have kept him inside but allowed Murtagh to pull out a tad easily.
If i was hughes i would of tried tactically to keep him there and make it as difficult as possible.
Maybe Youmzain could not at that stage match the pace needed to do this
but it would have been interesting.
Saying all that Murtagh showed what a world class jockey he is.Hasn’t Peslier agreed to ride Papal Bull in the Arc? If so, now that he knows more about the horse it could be very interesting.
Normally I would not consider betting each way for an ante-post bet, much better value to bet win bets on more than one horse.
However, with a horse difficult to win with.
The King George seemed to suggest Papal Bull has the more ability than Duke Of Marmalade, he just does not go through with his effort so easily.With the each way saver, is Papal Bull a good bet at 16/1?
Mark
Value Is EverythingFor me yesterdays race was a very exciting renewal but I still dont buy that the Duke (versatile as he may be) is a 130 horse.
Yesterday I took him on with the only 120ish horse in the field that I thought would be suited to the conditions and I almost beat him. But of course the 120ish horse (who’s race record upholds that that is where he is) must now be a 128 horse who has just run the race of his life, despite running an almost identical race on the same track and surface in a similar time in 2006 king edward (probably his best form going into the race) but was rated much lower for that.
The horses who brought their best form from further in trip (Ask, Macarthur and Lucarno) never got into the race because it wasnt enough of a stamina test, as the pace set by red rock canyon was slow enough for that horse to finish fourth (despite the time of the race being fast), and it called for more speed than they have ever had.
Youmzain did not have conditions in his favour and although finishing third never really got going (much like the 2006 king george on same track, surface, similar time).
The duke is a very gifted and versatile horse, in a similar sort of mould to Azamour, and I give him full credit for that as that sets him out as a special horse in his own right. However he is still not IMO a 130 horse, yesterday in a race which was run to play to his strengths, he was almost beaten by a 120 horse who threw the towel in.
I will be all to willing to take him on again next time (hopefully in the international with a 122 rated horse).
I wouldnt be in any hurry to bet Papal Bull for the arc at 16s, I’d want at least 50s to cover the chances of him getting his ideal conditions in the arc, and to cover the fact that on yesterdays (and previous outing’s) evidence he will have to be dropped on the line, which is no easy task in any race, and especially the not in arc.
Very gutsy performance by DOM and proved he does get 12f, a bit surprised they are looking at the Juddmonte next as I would have thought they would give him a break but maybe the Arc isn’t really his target.
The proximity of Papal Bull may make some detract from DOM’s performance but imo Papal Bull finally showed his true ablity and for a few strides looked like he may win though maybe he got there too soon and came from so far back had to use up a lot of petrol. For me Youmzain was not given a very good ride and as Hughes said the pace wasn’t quick enough why didn’t he take the opportunity to move up and keep DOM on the fence, he also had to snatch him up later in the race. Having said that he wouldn’t have won and the ground was probably on the quick side for him but he should have finished closer. The rest looked out of their depth.
Anyone thinking of backing Papal Bull for the arc at 16s, it may be worth having a look at Macarthur, who’s proximity to Youmzain and Soldier Of Fortune at epsom on a similar surface to the Arc (with Papal Bull in 4th) would give him probably a better chance. Also Macarthurs best form has came over further than 1m4f so a fast paced arc should be right up his street.
170-1 on betfair (according to irishracing.com) may just cover his chances of running. It a hard call to say whether he will run in the Arc as we dont know what sort of form AOBs 3yos and SOF will be by arc time but he still has to sort of justify why he kept him on in training this year.
Jeez Bulwark, humility is not lost on you….
In this thread you’ve wrote
¨DOM is well overrated for beating listed class horses at Ascot¨
– ¨Listed¨ class Pipedreamer won a Group 2 yesterday¨If the ground isnt GDFM or better DOM is almost certain to be beaten¨
– Times suggest it was good yesterday¨GDFM ground Youmzain may still be capable of winning¨
followed by ¨To be honest I didnt fancy Youmzain on todays ground one bit¨¨Good or Worse. Youmzain has everything in his favour he gets the trip extremely well and is a class above the opposition, should win it fairly easily.¨
– Again times suggest it was good yesterday¨Youmzain and Ask are my pair against the field¨
¨Papal Bull ¨could¨ be the forgotten horse¨,
Hardly analysis we could hang our hats on although your congratulating yourself just the same.Time based going’s suggest you cant make ¨exact¨ comparisons with races run 2 years apart.
I read your stuff, and its good but man you are scattergun at times.
With the Betfair price over double that of bookmakers best price, may be Papal Bull is not a likely runner.
Expected it to be a bit more, with a horse difficult to win with and layers not needing to take in to account the place part of the bet. But over double?
16/1 Papal Bull may not be quite the good bet I suggested earlier, even each way.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI doubt if there was a man alive who thought the Duke was going to come back. To his merit he actually won quite comfortably in the end albeit by a small margin.
How good a performance it was is debatable but the first two finsihed a long way ahead of the others.
Youmzain performed ok but there can be no excuses. I still can’t believe the bookies making Soldier of Fortune 7/2 favourite after he beat Youmzain at Epsom. I wouldn’t back either of them for the Arc with bad money.
As far as the Duke is concerned he will have to do better than he did today if he is going to win the Arc. Stoute’s horse came there and looked to have the race won. If that had been Zarkava in that position he wouldn’t have seen the way she went IMO.
It seems if O’Brien wins anything the immediate response is to toss the negatives out the window and make the horse favourite. Ok the Duke isn’t favourite for the Arc but to make him Joint 2nd favourite along with Zarkava and ahead of New Approach is a nonsense.
I do think he’s a lovely horse who could improve further and may well win the Arc but up to now he hasn’t shown me enough to merit backing him over Zarkava.
I doubt if there was a man alive who thought the Duke was going to come back.
Yes there is, me.
Papal Bull is a dog, a very good dog but a dog none the less.
Unfortunately I was not betting in running.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHow could anyone back Papal Bull ante post for an Arc? If it’s not good to firm he won’t even run.
Jeez Bulwark, humility is not lost on you….
In this thread you’ve wrote
¨DOM is well overrated for beating listed class horses at Ascot¨
– ¨Listed¨ class Pipedreamer won a Group 2 yesterday¨If the ground isnt GDFM or better DOM is almost certain to be beaten¨
– Times suggest it was good yesterday¨GDFM ground Youmzain may still be capable of winning¨
followed by ¨To be honest I didnt fancy Youmzain on todays ground one bit¨¨Good or Worse. Youmzain has everything in his favour he gets the trip extremely well and is a class above the opposition, should win it fairly easily.¨
– Again times suggest it was good yesterday¨Youmzain and Ask are my pair against the field¨
¨Papal Bull ¨could¨ be the forgotten horse¨,
Hardly analysis we could hang our hats on although your congratulating yourself just the same.Time based going’s suggest you cant make ¨exact¨ comparisons with races run 2 years apart.
I read your stuff, and its good but man you are scattergun at times.
I cannot have that the ground was good yesterday for one second Cav. The race was fast, like the third fastest running ever (according to the beeb) and the pace setter finished in fourth, that wouldnt happen if the ground was good, unless the rest of the field were non stayers, yet all the stayers finished behind Red Rock Canyon. That was at least Gd-Fm.
It was in the emergence of the Gd-Fm that I left behind Youmzain and Ask, and sided with Papal Bull. I still think on good ground youmzain would have spanked the field. I am not congratulating myself on that, I am just highlighting the fact that the only 120ish horse in the field suited to conditions, threw away the chance of beating this "130 horse".
PS when I say Listed class I mean any horse circa a 115 rating, as opposed to group1 class where horses would sit circa 125 (120 being the cut off point for me). I cannot break down into group2s and 3s because the difference between one group3 or group2 and another can be massive and they can be won by horses who wouldnt muster even a 115 rating (what I would refer to as listed class). Likewise group1s can be won by horses nowhere near 125, those IMO are what I would call weak group1s (obviously fillies contests are an exception). A race won by a 130 performance is an exceptional group1. The closest I have seen to a 130 performance this season was henrythenavigator at royal ascot, and whereas I think that New Approach looks more than capable of a 130 performance he hasnt yet put in one.
Pipedreamer, has won yesterday and beaten Supaseus, a horse on his first attempt above the handicaps (unless you include the wolferton handicap as listed) by 1.5 lengths. That IMO is a 115ish horse and what I would refer to as Listed Class. Sure he could run in weak group 1s and if he found one weak enough he could win but he is still IMO a listed class horse because he has not yet achieved a high enough level of form to be what I would call Group 1 Class.
I will hopefully be taking DOM on (ground providing) in the international with Famous Name, who on the ratings shouldnt get within 4 lengths of the Duke. But then on the ratings Papal Bull wasn’t entitled to get within five lengths of DOM and he had the beating of him yesterday.
Thats convenient, have the going description to suit your argument, but in doing so…
you disagree with Richard Hughes’s opinion of the ground yesterday
you disagree with the times compared to standardYou have a horse either Group 1 class or Listed Class…and anything in between is a twilight zone that can be won by handicappers and Pipedreamer is Listed class
Ok, I think I have you now.
You’ll get DOM beaten [b:2592004u]eventually[/b:2592004u]….agree with you on that
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