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If the ground is good or worse and a false pace is unlikely Youmzain will take Duke Of Marmalade to school.
What makes you think that Bulwark??? youmzain is a good horse but he isnt one to trust.
What makes you think that Bulwark??? youmzain is a good horse but he isnt one to trust.
Bit harsh to say not one to trust, in his last 10 races, all GR1s, he finished
1,2,5,2,4,2,5,3,3,1,2.I think DOM is well over rated for beating listed class horses easily at ascot, he has always been a group1 class horse and was always entitled to do that. I have him somewhere between 120 and 125 for that performance, I dont really see the extra 2f bringing much improvement from him though. His over rating makes him a sitting duck in that market, but admittedly if the ground comes up firmer, I couldnt rule out that he could be played for speed in the race.
Ascot for the king george can go either way ground wise from firm to good at this time of year and I will be wanting to see a bit of cut before deciding to back youmzain who IMO is a rock solid group1 horse, but who has raced against some far better group1 horses than he is likely to get in the king george. I will wait until nearer the time as there may be a decent e/w lining up nearer the time.
Didn’t the listed class horses that finished second and third in the PofW fill the same places in the Eclipse?
I’d say they have youmzain about right Cav on 127, that is what he looks to be capable on his best conditions. Lets face it he was beaten in a photo in quite a decent arc, against a horse who was better than duke of marmalade, and who looked more suited to 1m4f than the duke.
The horses who were placed in the POW have upheld the placings in the eclipse, but my stance is only on what level of form it is, they were last years handicappers/conditions racers, and duke of marmalade was a group1 placed horse last season.
What way would you have expected a group1 placed horse to beat last years handicappers? Exactly as he did in the POW IMO. Mount Nelson a pretty weak juvenile group1 winner has beaten those listed class horses too.
In both those races (eclipse and POW) I have only seen one proper group1 horse (as in one who would be capable of running with credit in most average group1s) and that is duke of marmalade. It is where you rate his opposition that will influence how good you think he is. Finsceal beo hasnt been at her best this season, and although she doesnt stay 1m2.5f, the slow pace on firm ground would have given her a slight chance of getting involved, she gave him a fright for most of the way before just not staying that last bit.
I just cant see how anyone can rate that form as highly as they are doing at present, it is very good to see a horse completing a facile win in a group1, but it looks like they are rating all of this years 1m2f division on having improved about 10 lbs on their form of last season, and I dont really buy into that.
Just one thing.
The word Diamond is not included in the title anymore as de Beers do not sponsor the race anymore.
In his life story Jonjo O’Neill said something that I never forgot.In a struggle between two horses you know how good the second is but you cannot tell from that how good the winner is.The second gave his all and was second but did the winner have to give his all? We don’t know.We don’t know yet how good Duke of Marmalade is do we? He has yet to lose a struggle this year.Until he loses we cannot truly rate him.
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Theres nothing in this race that stands a chance with Duke Of Marmalade in my opinion bar 2 horses and they are Papal Bull and Youmzain.
Duke Of Marmalade is the best horse in the field.
He finished fourth in two Guineas before running Excellent Art to within 1L in the St James’ Palace. He ran a fine race in defeat behind Epsom Derby winner Authorized in the Juddmonte before finding Dylan Thomas only 1 1/2L too good in the Irish Champion and Ramonti, arguably the best miler in the world at the time, just 1L too good in the QEII.
That form is by far the best in the field, especially when you consider that he wasn’t 100%. Aiden O’Brien admitted that pins inserted in his legs after a fracture were causing him discomfort last season.
newyork has a point about Youmzain. He may have proved himself a consistent performer in Group 1 contests, but for a horse of his ability, a record of two wins in his last ten starts indicate that he is difficult to win with. The first of two Group 1 victories came in the Preis von Europa at Cologne in 2006.
DOM has one serious rival – the trip. He’s not bred to stay and you can only presume, on the evidence we’ve seen so far, that he possesses an awful amount of speed for a horse expected to stay twelve furlongs. However, as we have seen in the past, Mr O’Brien has a habit of making winners out of dubious stayers.
If Duke Of Marmalade stays, he wins.
Youmzain won last start – beat Soldier Of Fortune comfortably although the margin suggests otherwise. Forgotten already?
I think Youmzain has actually improved over the Winter. It would be his last wave of improvement surely, but he has proven that cutting Dylan Thomas out of the picture and there’s an Arc and King George in the bag from last year. Now it’s time to step up.
7/2 isn’t a price to latch onto immediately, so I will wait.
I think DOM is well over rated for beating listed class horses easily at ascot
Group 3 maybe, but tend to agree
Didn’t the listed class horses that finished second and third in the PofW fill the same places in the Eclipse
Yes. And no one is claiming that it was anything more than a poor renewal
I would be more strongly for Youmzain if i could trust the trainer to get him spot on on the day.
If Phoenix Tower is Listed class what does that make Cesare, Tariq, Haradasun, Creachadoir, Pipedreamer? Listed as well? Handicappers maybe?
What does it make a horse beaten a length last year by Ramonti and Dylan Thomas and has improved again this year? Is Duke of Marmalade a Group 2 horse?All about opinions of course but you boys taking on the Ballydoyle mob this year on such analysis must be well skint by now
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