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Apparently covering the bases in case it got postponed due to ground problens and moved to Cheltenham (unlikely at Kempton but still).
Protektorat has an OR of 170, Hitman is 10lb lower, Hitman is unproven at 3m, Protektorat is, and IMO one of the duo is a bridle horse who only actually wins a race every vernal equinox.
If connections want to win the race (again), I know which one I think they ought to be running.
Yes, I know, “the owners pay the bills.” (Yawn)
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If Hitman wins the KG it,’ll be one of the greatest training performances of all time
If Bravemansgame or Hitman were with any other trainer, they’d be double the odds they are right now.
The Charlie Hall form isn’t all that and as for Hitman….
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’ll have a speculative tenner on Ahoy Senor at 33/1. I thought he was heading for superstardom last season, but he is beginning to look just a bit quirky. Still, he loves Aintree and is fav for the Many Clouds at the weekend, after which connections will make a decision about the King George. He disappointed there last year in the Kauto Star, but I think he was ridden much too conservatively. His tendency to jump right – at first it seemed a simple adjustment to get on the correct stride, has become a habit, one which should be less of a drawback at Kempton.
The horse should be happy to see Aintree again and there’s every chance he will win comfortably, re-enthusing the yard and hopefully prodding them in the direction of Boxing Day down south.
Ian id say Eldorado Allen gives a good line of form , I’ll keep saying Nicholls won the Charlie hall with BIG without him having a proper racecourse gallop , he,’ll be way more sharper and this is his GC , I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t win
“If Bravemansgame or Hitman were with any other trainer, they’d be double the odds they are right now.”
BMG might be odds on if he was with Mullins ;o)
L’Homme Presse and Protektorat would both have cracking chances if they ran.
The latter beat Eldorado Allen far more convincingly at Haydock Park than Bravemansgame did at Wetherby, where Bravemansgame was actually receiving weight.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Envoi Allen is my fancy here, but at 5-1, I am going to wait and just hope that he is around that price if he makes it there, and I also think that Pic Dohry could come into the picture here if he runs well on Sunday
“The latter beat Eldorado Allen far more convincingly at Haydock Park than Bravemansgame did at Wetherby, where Bravemansgame was actually receiving weight.”
Soft ground at Haydock widens winning margins. BMG won as he liked at Wetherby and wasn’t near full fitness- like the year Clan des Obeaux was beaten at Down Royal and Nicholls was totally sanguine about it and pretty much said, meh it was a prep race, he’ll be ready to win at Kempton, and he did.
This is a difficult one for me to be honest.
Ground will play a massive role in this race, Protektorat & L’Homme Presse are very ground dependant and may not even run if this dry weather continues in the run up to the race. If it did come up soft L’Homme Presse would be my choice as watching him jump at Newcastle he was very clever at his fences and even if you watch the mistake he made he minimised its impact by being very clever in correcting himself.
I would have been much sweeter on Frodon had he not run at Haydock, I really didn’t understand why they did that after the tough race he had at Wincanton and the fact that I don’t think the course suits him. If you could trust Ahoy Senor’s jumping more he would be the obvious choice at the prices but I think he is one of those horses that has his own way of jumping fences and at some point it will more often than not cost him at the highest level.
BMG still has a lot to prove to me as the Charlie Hall form is just meh and he has been found wanting in Championship races in the past but then I am not convinced over Envoi Allen off the back of that one run where he made heavy weather of beating Kemboy, who is a light of former years.
Hitman may very well be suited by the trip on this course and if the ground is not too testing but his form tells you he invariable finds one or two too good for him (he has more total placed runs than total wins) although he is still only 6 so he might have more improvement left to come.
If Eldorado Allen wins this then it really is an inditement on the others as he is well and truly exposed and I see him as more of the journeyman boxer that all the top prospects face as he will give you a good fight experience wise but ultimately if they are the real deal they will beat him handily.
“Protektorat & L’Homme Presse are very ground dependant”
Protektorat was only 3.52 seconds outside standard at Haydock Park.
The CoC can call it Soft ground if he likes, but the clock says otherwise.
And L’Homme Presse was only 6.24 seconds slow at Newcastle.
I agree neither is certain to run, but they’re the best two in the race on OR and tbh I think both sets of connections would be mad not to have a crack at it.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Both sets of connections would be mad not to have a crack at it.”
Agree. They both have fit and in form horses. You have to strike while the iron is hot, especially when it looks like the Irish challenge is not going to be that strong.
Cheltenham is their aim so if the timing and/or ground isn’t right they shouldn’t run imo.
Both horses need ground no quicker than good to soft as the quickest ground they will run on and arguably both their most impressive performances have been on much softer surface.
Protektorat’s time on the day was a standout for sure (thanks in the main to Bristol De Mai really not hanging about from flagfall) but the rest of times on the day would suggest the ground was more towards the soft side than good to soft side.
The other chase races run at Newcastle that day were significantly slower than the time L’Homme Presse clocked (11.23s & 25.06s respectively), in much the same way the other hurdle races were when compared to Constitution Hill’s time – that could have been a result of a slower early gallop in those races I guess but he and Constitution Hill are the bonafide G1 horses and as such their times were standouts but clearly not the norm on the day.
Whatever the case, Kempton’s cotc will no doubt be hoping/praying (if he is that way inclined) that the rain gods intervene significantly so that he doesn’t have to make the decision to water the course himself……in the last week Kempton have had less than 7mm of rain so he will need to get his rain dance grove on pretty sharpish
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