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I’m on Mgheera for this at a decent price having read Ed Walker’s write-up in the Weekender, and had only just topped up after today’s Temple stakes to hear him apparently desperate to persuade the new owners to allow him to run her in the Nunthorpe before being shipped off to Oz?!?
Having just finished spitting all the feathers out I read a reported interview on AtTheRaces that he was hoping to run her here as well, so not sure what to believe?
I think if she does go here, especially with Buick aboard, she stands a decent chance, but maybe that’s just the wallet talking… 🙏NIGHT RAIDER 16/1
looks a 5F horse after York and as long rain stay away got a chance here
Starlust 14/1
Has run plenty of times over the past couple of years and my overriding take out would be he is best over a stiff 5f or an extremely quick run 5f. He’s versatile regard track position. This horse has never won when having a break of over a month and is 6 out of 13 when running within a month of a last run, 5/10 when excluding International races. Good news here is he has run at Haydock with Royal Ascot coming within 30 days of that.
His Ascot record is 0/2 but both times that was over 6f … The group 1 Commonwealth cup where he breaks fast and if you pause it with just under a furlong to go he is right up there with Inisherin before fading.. Similar to his previous Ascot run. His run in the Nunthorpe where he ran up with the pace before staying on again would suggest Ascot won’t be an issue over the stiff 5f and its the distance rather than the track for his down the field positions imoGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Mgheera could do with not starting sluggishly upped to this level. 10/1 was too tempting not to take a bite out of and I also thought Bucanero Fuerte was slightly overpriced at 25s.
Ran a huge race in the Cov last year, won a listed over 5f on reappearance and the 2nd has subsequently won at the same level.
Can never get one right with Egan on board though so fortune will need to change there.Believing – 4/1
This is her year..
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’ve taken 16’s on American Affair, but hoping to beat that tomorrow
American Affair EW5/16’s
I’m on American Affair to , yard in form ( had his 2 Hamilton winners in a double on Sun ) and the more I watch that last run the more I think he was looking for a prep for this ( Paul has previous for looking down various dead ends when not trying ) this is wide open and Jack Dexter ran a monster in this year’s ago so the yard isn’t flying a kite here
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
I don’t think this is as open as the betting suggests.
It’s not a vintage King’s “Stand” and Asfoora probably only needs to run to last year’s form to win… And although beaten last time out that was at 6f. Best at 5f on a firmish surface. Why connections would think he needs first time blinkers is the only negative. Is he not showing the same form at home?
Believing imo would’ve been runner-up last year had she started better and seems a bit better out of the gate of late. So there’s a possibility of improvement. Could’ve done without the stall 1 though and the front runner in stall 2 being a non-runner doesn’t help. Will need to get across and follow the likely pace setter Night Raider.
Night Raider is one of only two I could find in this big field that has potential to improve significantly. In his case crying out for 5f. On the face of it has better form on the All Weather, but ran a lot better than it appeared last time out against Inisherin and co at 6f. Going off much too fast. If the pack don’t force him to go too quick (by the looks of things needs to lead) has a good chance.
The other potential improver is Mgheera. Wasn’t a great Temple she won (and not by far) but was the only one of the principles to come from the back that day. Every chance of further improvement in a truly run race at a stiff 5f.
I’d be interested in an American Affair (good form in handicaps) but why so disappointing in the Temple? Possibly at his very best / more consistent on a bit softer than it is today? American Affair is yet to come to the deep south too. Never been further south than Haydock.
Regional isn’t out of it. Length 2nd in this last year and should be thereabouts again. But if Asfoora or Believing are at their bests the 7 year old Regional would need a pb… And drawn 17, is a bit away from the best pace in stall 7, Night Raider. Will be hoping Frost At Dawn can lead him far enough.
Starlust would have a chance if running to Breeders Cup form. But has been disappointing in his two trips to Ascot and way below form on reappearance. There’s “needing it” and then there’s “NEEDING IT”! Is he going through the motions before a trip to Aus, to take up stallion duties?
There’s then imo a big gap to the others.
West Acre would stand a bit of a chance on the best of his Meydan form. But possibly has the worst of the draw. Most of the ones drawn high seem to be hold up horses and without anything to bring them into it…
Two I do like at big prices are the Cox pair. Cox is imo one of the best trainers of sprinters in the country. Jasour is interesting because although his “best form” is at 6f, he races as if 5 should suit. Has of late ruined his chance by pulling hard. However, with 23 runners has more chance of getting cover today than in any race since his 3rd in the Commonwealth. A chance he could get too on edge or too free to post. But his two runs at Ascot to date have resulted in a 3rd in a Group 1 and a win at Group 3 level. Stable companion Kerdos was well beaten on reappearance but he’s often gone from being out then in then out then in form… And his two Ascot races are: Beaten only just over 3 lengths in this race last year… And a good second in a Class 2 handicap when on the up. I thought 38 and 80 were worth taking for the Cox duo.
Am on Asfoora, Believing, Mgheera and Jasour as main bets, savers on Night Raider and Kerdos.
It is possible to take odds-on in a 23 runner race.
Value Is Everything
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