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One of my favourite races at The Festival, and along with The 3 Miler and Gold Cup, possibly my most profitable. Probably why I’m starting a thread on it haha. Conversely, and in the interests of balance, the chances of me starting a thread on something like The Albert Bartlett, would be slim to say the least.
As interesting an entry as I can remember at this stage, with just the 108 candidates to chew over. I had every intention of starting a book on it, however that won’t be happening thanks to one of my biggest fancies of The Festival, and the season, namely Our Father, getting absolutely hammered in the last 48 hours.
Our Father was going to be a season long “chip away” gamble for Aintree, and I started on him last summer at 100’s, but this was brought to a halt, when I noticed he was missing from David Pipes “horses in training”. I assumed he’d been retired. I was wrong, and when The National entries were published, I realised he was now with Gordon Elliot. No harm done though, as he’s unlikely to get in The National anyway, being too far down the list. He’s a very well handicapped horse, and likes it round here. Wouldn’t have any concerns at him coming here for his first run since New Years Day 2015, when he found only the very well treated Mon Parrain too good, as he’s a horse who can go well fresh. He would have been a big winner for me in The 2014 Becher, but the jockey kicked for home far too soon, and he was caught near the last. I missed the boat with him for this, as was too greedy, and all the prices at around 30’s on Betfair were snapped up. He’s now as low as 6’s, and I get the impression that Jamie Codd may have been booked for him, as that’s a fair drop in price with the race the best part of 3 weeks away. If that’s the case, then I’ve missed out.
Not too worried though, as Cause of Causes was my long term fancy for this anyway. I had hoped for Codd to get re-united with him here, but the signs are that it’s not to be with that plunge on Our Father. I could see Nina Carberry getting the gig now for Cause of Causes, which would be a worry, as she’s not on the same league as Codd. Despite other engagements, I hope he still heads here to give Elliot a very strong chance of a 1,2, and off 142, he must have a squeak. He’s one of the best handicapped horses in training, to the extent that he might struggle to get in at Aintree, for which he’s my main fancy. Was hoping to get some compensation for his run at Aintree last year, when he was given a desperate ride, though that looks in the balance now. I’ve had a fair old bet on him, and happy with the 20’s. Love this horse to bits, and he was undoubtedly the highlight of a wretched 2015 Festival for me, when he landed my antepost of odds of 25’s in The 4 Miler.
As I said, last year was very poor for me, and one of the other few highlights was The Package romping home in this race for David Pipe, who also gave me my biggest winner in this in 2011, with Junior, who’s still one of the easiest Cheltenham Festival winners I’ve ever seen. Pipe looks sure to take a hand again, not least with the well touted Doctor Harper, who looks a danger wherever he decides to head. The main drawback with him is picking which race he goes for, so from Pipe’s many candidates, I’m going to concentrate on Amigo, and Standing Ovation. Amigo hasn’t been seen for a while, but his run at Ayr in The Scottish National is hard to forget, and but for the wheels falling off close to the end of the 4 miles, he would have won. This trip is ideal for him. He’s had his entries recently, but not taken them up, and you can be sure they have a plan for him, and I reckon this could be it. Serious player at 25’s. Standing Ovation, on the other hand, has ran no fewer than 7 times since his decent effort in this last year, though he has been given a break of late. Coming back down to the right kind of mark, and though I’ve a slight preference for Amigo, I wouldn’t put anyone off the 20’s each way, as he’ll surely head here, and ran very well for a long way in this last year. He may have been sacrificed to set the pace for The Package that day. Could it be his turn this year? Of Pipe’s remaining runners, Top Wood looks of the most interest to me, and I wouldn’t write him off in a hurry, as he’s sure to land a prize like this in the next couple of years.
Mon Parrain, who beat Our Father at Cheltenham last year, is another coming down to a winnable mark, and at a ridiculous 33’s, he looks the pick of the Nicholls entries. Or to put it another way, he’s his only entry
I hit the crossbar the other day with the Charlie Longsdon trained Grandads Horse, and though maybe stretching it for win purposes, he’s another at 33’s, and I can see him surprising a few. His stablemate Coologue certainly surprised me in The Skybet. He was one of the first horses I put a line through, but he ran a screamer, and if in the same mood, should give supporters a decent run for their money, though I’d be wanting more than the 16’s at this stage.
Midnight Prayer was a decent winner in The 4 Miler a couple of years ago, and he’s returned from a long layoff in good heart. A very fragile horse though, and though he won a fortnight ago, it was a war of attrition, he was legless, and was the only finisher. That may have taken it’s toll, and he makes no Ante-Post appeal. One to possibly consider on the day.
I didn’t rate Ballykan for The Betbright Chase today, but he ran a sound race, and if over that, he could be the one for Nigel Twiston-Davies, who landed this with Same Difference three years ago. Could easily see him heading here.
The Irish Contingent look as strong as ever. As well as Cause of Causes & Our Father, Gordon Elliot also has a few other contenders, with Bless The Wings looking the most interesting of those. Runner up in this last year, he just couldn’t quite get to The Package, who had slipped the field, but it was a fine effort. He’s been a busy boy since then, with no fewer than 10 runs, but Elliot has worked his magic, and having finished second in this off 134, he’ll return here again off of 135. 20’s looks about right just now.
It’s not just Elliot who could take a hand though for Ireland, and there are plenty worth noting who could make the trip. Henry De Bromhead runners are worth a second look at The Festival, and his Buckers Bridge has returned from a long layoff in good heart. He ran very well behind the promising Fine Rightly on his return, before running with credit in The Thyestes, and this forgotten horse is big with Bet365 at 33’s NRNB. The Job Is Right has made me a good few quid over the last couple of seasons, and after briefly showing possible signs of temperament, he looks back on the right track, and I’d say he’s serious solid each way material for this at 20’s. He rarely runs a bad race. The only horse who could potentially have troubled The Package in this last year, was Guess Again, he was absolutely cantering, but he was knocked over by Just A Par down the back. I then I had a decent bet on him for The Bet365 Gold Cup, and he was given an absolute peach of a ride by Paul Townend. He cruised into the lead, only to seemingly run out of gas close to home, and he was just ran out of it, with, yup, Just A Bloody Par winning. I’ve checked, and Just A Par ain’t entered, and his absence can only enhance Guess Agains chances. His wellbeing would have to be taken on trust, but the 33’s with Paddy Power is huge, and I’ve had a go Each Way. My biggest bet of this season was on Rossvoss in The Paddy Power over Christmas, but he was a shade disappointing. I’m willing to forgive him though, and consider him for this. Before that run in The Paddy Power, he was a big winner for me over hurdles at 14’s, and that was enough for me to know he was decent, he showed a fair turn of foot that day. If he heads here, he’s sure to have the benefit of Katie Walsh, who seems to get on well with him. He’s another who’s big at a general 33’s, but he could head to The Martin Pipe, and he does mix hurdles and chases, so definitely one to hold fire with. Willie Mullins has Sambremont entered, who’s as low as 10’s but as promising as he is, he’s got no fewer than 5 entries at The Festival, so I’d be in no rush to back him just now. His Urano is hard to predict, as well as having his own ideas. Off the back of a win over hurdles last time though, he could be a dark horse, and he travelled well for a long way in The Hennessy, and his odds of 50’s with Betfair Sportsbook are worth a second look. Spring Heeled hasn’t got his head in front since landing this 2 years ago, though hasn’t been given much respite from The Handicapper. Not discounted off the back of his run in The Munster National a few months back, and a dry week would certainly see him come into it.
Can’t really mention the Irish Raiders without a mention for The Gigginstown runners, but as per, it’s so hard to predict who’ll trap. Rogue Angel & Thunder And Roses could be the pick of their nine contenders.
JP Mcmanus, like Gigginstown, has a few in contention, and he very much targets this race. Cause of Causes is obviously my pick of his, but any horse of his coming from the Jonjo yard will also be worth serious consideration, and Upswing & Another Hero both fit the bill nicely. I’d much prefer Another Hero to head here, as I’ve bet Upswing for The 3 Miler. Although a 12 year old now, Wyck Hill ran well for a very long way with the burden of my cash on him, in The Eider today, and with that run under his belt, he looks the type who could just surprise a few. He’ll certainly benefit from that re-appearance today. JP’s other entry, Free Expression, another from the Gordon Elliot yard, looks a very decent sort, and he’s very much on my radar for the next couple of seasons, though to be honest, never considered him for this. He’s got 4 possible engagements, and I’d be surprised if they took this option.
Theatre Guide, winner of The Betbright Chase today, is not surprisingly, very popular, though worth noting that he’s already been moved from some firms lists. Other impressive winners today were Ericht & Henry Parri Morgan, and though there’s a sea of blue on Oddschecker at the moment, the pair of them can still be backed at 50’s.
Our Father & Cause of Causes would be big fancies then, and I’ve had a fair go on Cause of Causes, having missed out on Our Father, and the 33’s for Guess Again just had to be taken also. I could literally bet most of them mentioned, hence why I wanted to do a book, but with the price on Our Father collapsing, this has made life more difficult, so unlikely I’ll take that route. It worked for me in The Betbright Chase this week, and certainly not ruled it out, and at least liquidity in the run up should be decent. We’ll see. Of those I haven’t bet, gun to my head, I’d bet Amigo, he looks primed for a big run. All about Cause of Causes though, and my biggest bet for two years. Hopefully Codd gets the gig this year, and not Carberry
GL
Bobby, that ain’t a post, it’s an eBook! Great stuff.
You think Theatre Guide will go to the Ultima then, rather than this?
Thanks Joe, hope after all that, the winners in there haha.
Smashing performance from Theatre Guide yesterday, but it may have been too good, and he might find himself weighted out of this, as it’s got a ceiling of 145. That would certainly explain him missing from some firms lists.
AHELLOFAWRITETUP Bobby!!!
Any thoughts on an animal called O MAONLAI of Tom Georges .
If it gets in then I think it may be a bit of a plot . It ran well behind Aloomomo at Newbury in November then got bogged down behind Seventh Sky at Haydock when it was joint favourite and hasn’t ran since.Could be interesting at a big price.
The other two I am interested in are Guess Again and Upswing
P.S. Stop slagging off my Just A Par LOL !!
Any reason why Guess Again hasn’t had an outing this year?
I too backed him the the Sandown race last year where he was travelling so strongly I thought I was on the winner at sweet odds. The stiff finish at the end of the 3m5f got in the way though so I’d be interested dropped back in trip if all was sound with the horse.
Follow Nina, Jamie and Derek… And maybe Jack Kennedy.
Simple as that really.
That covers Our Father and Cause of Causes… Not sure about Derek & JackPointer, Nina is definitely one to avoid for me, but agree on the others
Don’t know myself why he ain’t been out Sheriff, but fingers crossed he’s in good nick, as he must have some chance.
Thanks Raymo and Joe
Raymo, I looked at O Maonli, but to be honest I didn’t really fancy him, but having been down this road before with your picks, I’m not saying one bad word against him haha………….I’ll save that for Just A Par
Guess Again down to 10/1 in a place….hope you got the decent prices VTC, looks like he should get in the race, and if the betting is right, looks likely to turn up.
Yeah, very happy with him Jamie, and even happier with the 33’s, and up to 20’s on BF. Race is looking decent for me at the moment, so fingers crossed no more disasters haha
I’ll have three in this. Cause of Causes, Doctor Harper and The Job Is Right. Not got the best record in this!
Good luck Peter, especially with Cause of Causes & The Job Is Right. Doctor Harper was always too short for me, and I’m running scared from him. Will probably have to cover on the day.
Heard last night that Guess Again wasn’t making the journey Jamie. Hopefully not the case, but he’s no longer blue on Oddschecker, which isn’t a great sign.
Really? Goddammit! Between him and Salubriuous for the 3 miler, that’s my handicap ante posties out the window!
Oh well…will just have to watch Vautour hose up without the ante post thousands accrued!Cause of Causes masterclass there. I was confident having won the 4 miler he’d be strong at the finish but wasn’t expecting him to fly past them all like that. Great to watch
Well done peter VTC and anyone else who backed cause of causes.
Especially those on antepost.I’m crossing things which are already crossed that Cause Of Causes gets in the National. That was impressive today and shows how well handicapped he is
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