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Pleased there’s no market yet, as looks a strong entry right now, and hard to be overly confident on who’ll turn up…..
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/190/listowel/2021-09-22/793402
Galvin is a proper favourite of mine, and I’ve already bet him for Cross Country and The Grand National. He wouldn’t want to be winning this, bearing in mind his mark for Aintree. I’ve not totally given up on him as a dark horse for The Gold Cup either, but first things first, I’d just be a little surprised if he ran here, and was fully wound up. Big season ahead.
I think it’s a big season ahead for Ontheropes as well, and as I mentioned on The Ladbrokes Trophy thread, he’s on a very nice mark. Big handicap winner waiting to happen. Plenty of others from the yard entered, not least Karl Der Grosse, who really caught the eye at Killarney.
Spyglass Hill was a big flop in this last year, but he did improve as the season went on, and worth noting that he got a Gold Cup entry last year.
This isn’t a race where I automatically look for JP runners, but he’s got a fairly strong hand this year for a change. Modus and Aramax particularly interesting off their last runs, but they’ve kept old Winter Escape ticking over, and I think he’s ideal for this.
I do look for Gigginstown automatically in this though, and the ever reliable Farclas gets an entry. Has to be taken seriously, but equally interesting is Conflated, who’s got a recent spin on the flat under his belt. He’d be my pick of theirs right now.
I wouldn’t rule out more improvement from Born By The Sea this year, and although he’s struggling to get in, and it might be sharp enough anyway for him, I think Screaming Colours is one to note.
Hopefully no market till Final Decs, as tough enough at this stage, and it would also give me plenty of opportunity to change my mind.
Early Shortlist
Ontheropes
Conflated
Spyglass Hill
Winter EscapeFirst of all so glad to see you VtC starting threads on the likes of the Hennessy and the Kerry National…jumps must almost be back upon us!
Secondly, with the AP slips at the ready, I very much do not want to see a fully wound up Galvin at Listowel!
Roi De Dubai’s form figures over fences are 2211 and looks to me like he’s only a pound higher than when winning by 18 lengths at Cartmel.
This is obviously far more competitive – and three furlongs further – and he might not get in but, if he does, he could go well if he gets the trip.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"First of all so glad to see you VtC starting threads on the likes of the Hennessy and the Kerry National…jumps must almost be back upon us!
Hear Hear! Agreed, the flat seasons been so dull i can’t wait for the jumps to return. Not normally i say that either.
Going to wait for decs on this one as it’s so early in the season. Will be interesting to see Gordie’s decs. Having looked a recent renewals this wouldn’t be one he goes crazy strong in. Suspect that’ll be different this time round though…
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!This was on RP website…
Elliott said on Wednesday: “I think we have a strong hand. We have a few classy horses in there. Galvin has plenty of weight, but whether he’s a definite runner I’m not sure. We’ll work him in the morning and then make a plan.
Conflated likes going left-handed, he’s also a classy horse and has form in good Graded races. That’s what you need to win a race like the Kerry National, so I’d like his chances.
Farclas will definitely run. He’s been in great form all year and has run some solid races in all the big handicaps. I could see him running well.
The Big Lense and Aramax should also get in. They would be well capable of being involved if they ran to their best. We have four or five horses in there with solid chances, so fingers crossed one of them goes and wins it. It would be brilliant if we could win it.”Yeah i saw that Mike. Mick Winters also says Chatham Street Lad is a likely runner, and will appreciate any forecast rain. He actually mentions he thinks he’d run a cracker in a GC if it snowed lol.
John P Ryan has the fav and she’ll get in ok, Cooper says she feels like a graded mare, off 137 against some proper winter chasers she would need to be everybit that.
Conflated looks like he’s been prepped for this and therefore will probably prove popular upto racetime. By Yeats you never know he might appreciate 3m, but all his relatives haven’t and i don’t know how much he has hiding up his sleeve off his mark. I doubt he’s really a proper graded chaser.
Ontheropes would be interesting if turning up, as would Karl Der Grosse and Funky Dady. The one that looks most solid to me though is Aramax. He returned from a break to run well in the Blazers. He took a proper lump out of a fence during the race too which didn’t help, but he ran encouragingly and could improve again for that.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“I don’t know how much he has hiding up his sleeve off his mark. I doubt he’s really a proper graded chaser.”
That did cross my mind when looking at him, however off 145 he doesn’t need to be really, as graded chasers tend to be rated higher. He could potentially win this and not win another race again for the rest of the season off his revised mark. As for the trip, we will see, the trainer didn’t mention it being an issue.
Into 9s now.
Re Aramax, he was going to be my pick, however he is 5, and winners tend to be older – 7 or 8 generally.
With Spyglass Hill taken out, and Winter Escape unlikely to get in (of big interest later in the week), I stuck with the other pair of Conflated and Ontheropes.
Haven’t went mad, and rather top up after Final Decs, as both look possibles for The Southampton Plate on the Friday.
Conflated 14’s
Ontheropes 14’sOver the past few months compling Irish ratings I’ve found that the Irish handicapper has most horses pretty where he watns them. With the same hroses racing against each other on a regular basis it’s much easier for the Irish handicapper than his GB counterparts who pull together various strands. This race pretty much sums up the situation with half a dozen within a couple of pounds at the top:
168 Snow Falcon
167 Top Moon
166 Brahma Bull
166 Farclas
166 Ben Dundee
166 The Big Lense
164 Darasso
162 ModusFrom thsoe eight I’d pick two that are of particular interest, both coming off fair runs in midfield in the Galway Chase, both seeing out the race without getting to the leaders. Firstly Snow Falcon, winner of this race in 2018 and running consistently in recent times. The second is Ben Dundee, only twice a winner but has run some cracking races and had two decent efforts at Galway in July.
I have most of the field within 5lbs on ‘raw rating’, that is the figure before recent form is taken into account, so very close but I would expect 20/1 or greater both selections once prices are settled and that’s the part of the market I’d favour looking at.
It’s Snow Falcon for me as well Rob. I’m waiting to see what places are on offer, as he will certainly be an each way bet.
Now there’s decs in, a few thoughts.
With Gainford’s handy 5, i’d have Farclas over Conflated. As Mike says Conflated could win this and that’ll be his pot in the bag, but for me he’s never quite convinced. Farclas will enjoy the trip, ground and big field.
Assemble ran a decent race in the Plate from a wide trip- he has the ability to win especially around this sharp track, but his jumping would concern me at 14/1.
The rag, Robin De Foret isn’t completely out of this. Strong traveller and doesn’t mind racing prominently. Willie Mullins letting one go is never a good sign but he’s down to 137 having been 148 in March. He only beat Westerner Point a head but WP is 140, was 142, so 137 isn’t terrible. Has a win round Listowel as well.
It’s Aramax, plus one of them, i’ll see tomorrow.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The rag, Robin De Foret
HOW DARE YOU.
Agree he’s probably on the downgrade and ones that have left Mullins go for a reason, but still got to have a sentimental bet on him.I had been quite keen on JP Ryan’s second horse, Waitnsee but she’s only 3rd res. Trainer not a happy chappie:
John Ryan is gutted that Fairyhill Run is 1st reserve. I’m absolutely sick. I couldn’t be more disgusted,” raged Ryan on Monday afternoon. “We have three busloads of people set to go from Templemore to Listowel for the day and it looks like that won’t happen now. It’s a disaster.
“For the last two years horses who were rated 131 got into the race. My mare is rated 137 and she can’t get in. It’s a joke. Being the sportsman that JP McManus is, I hope he might be able to call upon his charitable side and take one of his seven out.”
I don’t think that is a huge problem and one will come out on the day. Gone up 28 since finishing behind Koshari in January and that one has gone up just 5.
Who John Ryan is disgusted with I’m not sure.
Himself? or the Handicapper for not sticking another 10lbs on him I presume. No worries take the coaches and have a great day out knowing Fairyhill Run is almost certain to make it in to the line up.
Massive varience between Brahma Bull and the basement. For me last year’s winning trainer Mullins has control of the handicap.
Gordon Elliott would love to win this and given how his team have perked up on his return, He must have a big hand in the top five. As always for me I’ll know more on the day… Yes Snow Falcon is a massive price and that one Each way for me for starters. 141 here, won off 148, 156 and has been up at 160 and only recently dropped to current mark. Ground conditions are spot on too.@GAG- he’s a big softie in a finish mind you! At 50/1 with 5pd claimer as well, he’s worth a few quid.
18ls back last year, off 149, if McConnell can get one big one out of him tomorrow might be it.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!At the risk of completely putting the mockers on it, I agree with robin des Foret, at 50s you can have a nice bet and hedge out a profit in play when it inevitably comes there cruising on the home bend. Hopefully it can hang on for a place.
other one I like is Darasso, think it has a bit of class, its jumping has improved no end and this flat-ish 3 mile should suit. Hopefully the price will drift a bit tomorrow as it did at galway.
Agree he’s probably on the downgrade and ones that have left Mullins go for a reason, but still got to have a sentimental bet on him.
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