Kent National 2010

[rich1985]

Not a race high on class but as a lover of extreme staying races, I’d like to put up a few fancies:

Tarquinius – still unexposed and future lies in these sorts of events, ran a decent second in the Sussex National behind Master Overseer and again LTO at Bangor over 3m6f. Although a 1lb higher, goes on the ground and Peter Toole takes a handy 5lb off.

Shaka’s Pearl – good yardstick for these races and was third behind Tarquinius in thr Sussex National, though is on a career high mark and at 10 y/o doesn’t have that much improvement. That said, will stay and should be involved. Yard in form.

Topless – third in this race two years ago so obviously stays but jumping can be an issue. Has only won once in his career too which is a bit alarming but has good credentials.

Tarquinius for me in a fascinating contest.

[Gerald]

I’m going to this tomorrow, so I spent an hour looking at the race earlier this afternoon, and I couldn’t come to a firm conclusion.

I suppose the main thing putting me off Tarquinius is that he is above the dreaded 11 stone mark. However, as I backed him in the Sussex National, I might as well stay loyal.

I’ll keep an eye out for Noble Bily’s owner in the paddock, as he is responsible for this quote:-

18Jan10 Plumpton ( 20 Sft ,RPR98 )

To me it’s the home of jumping, next to Cheltenham. Greg Molen, owner

Okay, now to check whether my Lincoln bet was actually declared to run in the opening Maiden Hurdle . . . .

[rich1985]

Yes Tarq has a lot of weight, but a lot are on high marks, like The Gangerman, Ya I Know and Noble Billy are Tarq is the only one mildly progressive in the race and stays. Probably be favourite but at around 7/2 / 4/1 I’ll be on.

[Craig]

I’m with you on

Tarquinius

if he can truly handle the ground.

Shaka’s Pearl

has claims as after finishing third in the Sussex National.

Topless

could be well-weighted and

Dune Raider

is at least consistent. Wow, covered most of the field there!!! Should be a great race – I do like these satellite Nationals.

Prediction:

Tarquinius
Dune Raider
Topless

[rich1985]

Dune Raider probably prefers faster ground and doubtful that he stays, we know Tarquinius, Shaka’s Pearl, The Gangerman, Ya I know and Topless stay but the last four are on very high marks and it will take a career best for any of them to win this. Knighton Combe can be classy but lumbered with top weight and ground much too soft. All points to Tarquinius for me and at 9/2 its a pretty good bet IMO.

[Craig]

Dune Raider

has come second on heavy ground two runs ago (3m2f) so could well handle the ground off a low weight. Probably the best on the ground all things considered is

Philson Run

!!! Eek.

[Big Bucks]

Hope you were on, Gerald!

[Gerald]

No, but I’ve got previous form of providing a quote from only one runner, and that one winning without me backing it. Did it with the Summer National at Uttoxeter last summer, and I told a silly story about the sire of Backstage’s 3rd or 4th dam before he won at Ffos Las.

I’ve also got a piece of aftertiming. I went through the jumping errors of Grand National winners in their last 6 chase starts last weekend (see thread), so yesterday I did the same thing for the runners in the Kent National:-

Knighton Combe
blundered; hit, slowly, hit; blundered; blundered; – ; blundered

Minella Boys
mistake, mistake; fell

Tarquinius
reached; -; mistake; -; -; reached

Philson Run
hit; not fluent, blundered, blundered; not fluent; not fluent on occasions, hit; hampered & UR; hit, mistake, BD

The Gangerman
pecked; -; -; never particularly fluent; hit; hit; -; –

Dune Raider
blundered; pecked; -; -; mistake; hit

Shaka’s Pearl
-; -; -; -; ,mistake; ?

Topless
-; -; -; mistake, slowly; refused to race; –

Ya I Know
-; pecked; blundered; -; never going with any fluency; mistakes, hampered

Noble Bily
-; -; -; -; -; –

Noble Bily was the only one who hadn’t had a recorded jumping error in any of his previous six chase starts!

[Big Bucks]

You cannot teach it

[Author]

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