Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › Kempton 1:35 tomorrow. Will breeding matter?
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Marginal Value.
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- April 6, 2012 at 13:27 #21452
The 1:35 at Kempton tomorrow is a two-year-old maiden over five furlongs. Stallions represented are: Bahamian Bounty, Thousand Words, Baltic King, Royal Applause, Three Valleys, Captain Marvelous and Moss Vale – speed sires all. And then there is a entrant called Chilworth Icon, who is a MAY foal by the ST LEGER winner Sixties Icon. I won’t be there but I would love to see what this colt looks like. As we all know, Mick Channon knows what he is doing, especially with two-year-olds. Chilworth Icon must have shown a lot early on for Mick to have trained him for this race, even though the colt is not yet actually two years old, and is sired by a late maturing horse (didn’t run at two) who has stamina galore in his pedigree (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).
Breeding is always a hit and miss business, but this colt stands out like …. a sore thumb. Is he special or will he make no show?
April 6, 2012 at 15:53 #399482Northern Dancer was foaled on May 27 and had one of the best 2yo seasons ever. Without knowing what is actually going on with the horse’s training it’s tough to get a handle on an unraced colt. I don’t like to bet races with a bunch of 1st-time starters for this reason.
April 6, 2012 at 15:55 #399483A May foal by a St Leger winner over 5 furlongs?…surely it’s having a run to prepare it for a longer trip ? I’d rather throw a few quid at the Hannon horse who looks better equipped for this sprint, breeding wise
April 6, 2012 at 16:33 #399487April 6, 2012 at 16:38 #399489A May foal by a St Leger winner over 5 furlongs?…
surely it’s having a run to prepare it for a longer trip ?
I’d rather throw a few quid at the Hannon horse who looks better equipped for this sprint, breeding wise
The longer trips (7F or 8F) for 2yo do not turn up for another four months. I look for trainers who are good at planning for Nurseries by running over inadequate trips, but it would be truly epic if Mick had already spotted him as a surprise Nursery winner in September over 8F, having had three over 5F in April/May to get a mark of 47. Mick would not risk spoiling a decent horse by tilting at windmills now for a maybe/possible chance in September. It is a serious puzzle to me. Maybe the colt just has none of Sixties Icon’s genes for late maturity and stamina. I shall watch the replay tomorrow with great interest.
April 6, 2012 at 17:59 #399514Look at the dam’s race record…..
April 6, 2012 at 18:36 #399517Look at the dam’s race record…..
Chilworth Icon’s dam was Tamara Moon (IRE). Her career as a two-year-old was:
At 5F – last of 6
At 6F – 10 of 12, then 8 of 11
At 7F – 1 of 7 (in July of 2yo in a Nursery Hcp), 9 of 11, 8 of 11, 9 of 10, 7 of 10
At 8F – 1 of 7 (in Sept of 2yo in a Nursery Hcp)Not exactly a precocious type at sprinting distances. To win over 7F in July of her 2yo career it looks like she took after her maternal grandsire, Peintre Celebre (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe), more than her sire Acclamation (5F and 6F decent sprinter).
I know Tamara Moon started her career over 5F and 6F and later won a Nursery over 7F, but she was by Acclamation, so that seems normal enough, but Chilworth Icon is by Sixties Icon. She was also a January foal who had her first race in May.
Still a puzzle? Or am I missing something?
April 6, 2012 at 19:00 #399519No puzzle, same trainer, probably giving her 3 runs to get her handicapped, the mild winter could mean she is more forward so running her early in bad races results in a more lenient mark. Channon also running another 2yo by same sire at Musselburgh.
My choice would be Fortinbrass, mainly because the dam is an old friend.
April 6, 2012 at 19:25 #399521Interesting point but Channon never comes across to me as the shrewdest of trainers or a meticulous and expert placer of horses, much more a throw lots of darts at the board and hope for the best. He has a lot of horses remember and has another Sixties Icon 2yo in Musselburgh’s 2yo race.
Couldn’t have it on my mind.April 7, 2012 at 16:32 #399629No puzzle, same trainer, probably giving her 3 runs to get her handicapped, the mild winter could mean she is more forward so running her early in bad races results in a more lenient mark. Channon also running another 2yo by same sire at Musselburgh.
Didn’t look like anything other than this. Also worth nothing that the dam is the only produce from either Galileo x Diesis or Acclamation x Pentire Celebre to have won at any distance shorter than a mile.
April 7, 2012 at 17:11 #399630Doesn’t Mick Channon have some sort of connection with Norman Court Stud, which stands Sixties Icon? Shareholder or director, perhaps? He trains all three of the stallion’s runners to date, and is listed as breeder of two of them. My guess would be that they are trying to register enough early 2yo runners – and ideally, winners – to give the horse a chance as a flat sire. If all he produces are late-maturing types who run once at the back end of their 2yo season over 8f then get put away for the winter, he’ll end up as a jumping sire before you can say Silver Patriarch. Mick was a major patron of Imperial Dancer, who also stood at Norman Court…watch where all the Winker Watsons end up.
April 7, 2012 at 17:38 #399633When I watched the race I thought that
Baileys Jubilee
had just set a fast time and he had, he received a speed figure from me of
71
.
The speed figure
My Boy Bill
received when he won the Brocklesby was
62
and when
Dawn Aproach
won at the Curragh his figure was
64
.
So he now goes to the top of my 2yo list
April 7, 2012 at 18:35 #399636It was the sort of time you see in class 5 and 6 handicaps, if that’s what you mean.
April 8, 2012 at 05:39 #399662It was the sort of time you see in class 5 and 6 handicaps, if that’s what you mean.
If it was an all aged race you would be right, but it was a 2yo contest.
At Cork yesterday
Liberating
2yo bf also achieved a rating from me of
71
.
April 8, 2012 at 06:38 #399664No puzzle, same trainer, probably giving her 3 runs to get her handicapped, the mild winter could mean she is more forward so running her early in bad races results in a more lenient mark. Channon also running another 2yo by same sire at Musselburgh.
Mick would never do such a thing
She actually looked like the type ho will win a race or two. 10 bob a week in the cookie jar until she runs in a 7 Furlong handicap at Yarmouth
April 8, 2012 at 11:10 #399683They were carrying a stone less than the 60-something rated handicappers that run faster times.
April 9, 2012 at 17:40 #399798A Sixties Icon two year old from Channon won at Musselburgh on Sunday.
It looked a pretty poor seller to be honest but Jim Goldie thought enough of the winner to pay 5,500 gns for her at the post race auction.
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