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Not really TDK. He is a very promising horse, and has done little wrong this season, but my problem with him is his pace, (or lack of it).
3 times he has been asked to race at anything like the pace the Gold Cup is likely to be run in:
The first in the RSA hurdle, where his jumping was all over the place and he didn’t have the pace to hold off Nicanor.
The second in the RSA chase, where he was ridden from some way out but, driven right out, eventually forged clear, but of horses considerably worse than he will meet in the GC.
Thirdly, in the Hennessy, on much softer ground than he is likely to meet at Cheltenham, where he had again to be ridden right out to beat handicappers by 10l. Much is made of the weight he carried in that race, and many base their opinion of him on that, but the truth is he is such a size of a horse that giving weight to horses some 2 stone below GC class was not nearly the impost it would have been to a smaller horse.
He may have the potential to win a Gold Cup, imo there is serious doubt as to whether he has the pace; certainly enough to make the price comparison between him and Exotic Dancer risible.Hope I’m wrong, but I’ve a horrible feeling that Denman will be found out in the Gold Cup. I can see it 4 out, Sam Thomas draws the whip while Ruby looks round, and again, gets his cigar out, smokes it and still wins hard held. Don’t ask me why, but as good as he’s been, something isn’t convincing me he’s the real deal. Yeah, I’m mad….hope I’m wrong, really want to see him take it to Kauto – see Ruby getting after him with 2/3 to jump. Then may the best horse win ( don’t forget Exotic Dancer mind you).
If this really is the definitive Gold Cup thread…will it be Kauto…will it be Denman, I think we need to get the blinkers off.
I see that FUSTRIEN DU PAON and MAJADAL have entries at the latest stage, which could mean Denamn and Kauto having to fight out 3rd place. I can’t see past these two I really can’t. And I bet those English bookies will be extra generous because of their Frenchiness…
Don’t say I didn’t warn you
3 times he has been asked to race at anything like the pace the Gold Cup is likely to be run in:
.The Gold Cup will most likely be run at the pace that Denman dictates. It will be a small field and I don’t see any obvious reason why it will necessarily be a strongly run race – it certainly wasn’t last year.
3 times he has been asked to race at anything like the pace the Gold Cup is likely to be run in:
.The Gold Cup will most likely be run at the pace that Denman dictates. It will be a small field and I don’t see any obvious reason why it will necessarily be a strongly run race – it certainly wasn’t last year.
I agree, the GC will be run at Denman’s pace. Sam Thomas is not stupid enough to let things go too slowly. Denman will wind up to his top speed and then gallop on in the hope of running his rivals ragged. Unfortunately, that won’t be good enough to win as Kauto Star will cruise by him two from home and that’ll be it for Denman – done. Long live King Kauto!
The Gold Cup was not strongly run last year, but there was no Denman last year. Denmans strengths are his stamina and jumping ability. Therefore a strong pace maximises his chance, Denman is very capable of making his own running. So the chance of a slowly run race as last year is minimal.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingIf this really is the definitive Gold Cup thread…will it be Kauto…will it be Denman, I think we need to get the blinkers off.
I see that FUSTRIEN DU PAON and MAJADAL have entries at the latest stage, which could mean Denamn and Kauto having to fight out 3rd place. I can’t see past these two I really can’t. And I bet those English bookies will be extra generous because of their Frenchiness…
Don’t say I didn’t warn you
Just as i started to reassure myself Kauto could win… Oh dear, I feel some sleepless nights filled with French spoken nightmares coming
Hope I’m wrong, but I’ve a horrible feeling that Denman will be found out in the Gold Cup. I can see it 4 out, Sam Thomas draws the whip while Ruby looks round, and again, gets his cigar out, smokes it and still wins hard held. Don’t ask me why, but as good as he’s been, something isn’t convincing me he’s the real deal. Yeah, I’m mad….hope I’m wrong, really want to see him take it to Kauto – see Ruby getting after him with 2/3 to jump. Then may the best horse win ( don’t forget Exotic Dancer mind you).
I think we all hope you are wrong Andy but the sad truth is you may not be.
Everyone has at one time mentioned that it is going to be a fast run race this year and it wasn’t last year.
We assume Denman at some point is going to hit the front and try and burn the others out.
The truth of the matter is he is going to have to go faster than he has ever gone in his life. This will be new territory for the horse this is not a slow run Lexus or a Sunday picnic like the Hennessy was.
One guide to how fast a pace he can set was at Cheltenham itself in The RSA. He won that race well but it should be noted Aces Four was staying with him and looked to be going well until making a terrible blunder at the third last. Obviusly he has improved since then but whether he has improved enough to take a Gold Cup field of their feet is anyones guess.
When I look back at the King George and see how easily Kauto was going
five out I can’t see Denman going so fast that he is going to take Kauto off the bridle. Tony McCoy was shocked at how well Kauto was travelling and you can’t out that down to the way ED was being ridden it was 5 from home not at the business end of the race.Horses like Kauto Star come once or twice in a life time I just can’t believe Denman is in the same class. I think he’ll take a lot of horses of their feet and there wont be many around from 3 out but If Kauto runs up to the same form as he did in the King George he could come there cantering and Sam will be kicking and shoving the horse to keep him in the race and by the time they get to the last he could simply collapse in a heap. Denman then could be in danger of being swallowed up late by those running on at the finish.
With Denman you don’t have form lines to go on and you have to use your imagination on how he will run in the Gold Cup. It’s not that hard to imagine him running them all into the ground but I just find it easier to imagine Kauto Star who has done it time and time again winning the race with ease.
I recall being subjected to great ridicule by a bookmaker friend for suggesting to him that amateur, JIim Wilson, and Little Owll (just out of novice company himself ) would beat Night Nurse and Silver Buck weeks prior to the 1981 Cheltenham Gold Cup . I duly lumped on Peter Easterby’s second string and had the last laugh.
This year I am utterly convinced that Denman can out stay and out jump an equally illustrious and revered opponent.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ah! The good old days The THL at the time was a friend of mines Mick Lambert they laughed at him as well
He had so much money going on to Little Owl at 33/1 in a 3x which included Schweepes winner Within the law and some other horse I can’t remember he set himself up in training. The majority of owners he attracted were of course all mad gamblers but it was fun times.
At first I thought the horse couldn’t possibly beat them either but he just kept on improving and went off at 6/1 second favourite.
The thing that amazes me obout that Gold Cup in comparison to this one is the difference in quality horses.
Night Nurse, Tied Cottage, Silver Buck, Diamond Edge, Jack of Trumps, Sparten Missile and of course Little owl were all stars in their own right.
There seems to be much less talent going about these days.
Anyway mate we disagree on this one but I’ll cheer him up the hill if he can do as you say……..You know what I think and IMO he is going to have to be better than your old favourite Mill House to do it.
I am sure as long as one of them wins we will both be happy as the one thing we have in common is the love of great horses and which ever one wins this tussle will certainly have to be all of that.
Kauto star V Denman encapsulates what is great about racing.
It is a clash that polarizes opinion and quickens the heartbeat. It is a matter of punting pride as well as winning hard earned cash that is at stake.
Kauto is undoubtedly a star, any horse that wins 2 Tingle Creeks, 2 King George’s and a gold cup is patently a freak of a beast.
Yet it really is tricky trying to quantify what that means in terms of this year’s blue riband event.
The only way I can see KS being beaten is if a horse can get him off the bridle for long enough.This would test his jumping and resolve. (not that I question his guts)
Denman could be that horse.
He is just starting to fulfill his enormous potential and maybe this year is too soon for him, but I do think he can get KS off the bridle.
Tactics are going to be crucial. Will Denman lead all the way? That would take some balls from Sam Thomas.
I do not think he has to lead. As others have said, sitting handy and kicking 5 or 6 out could be the best plan; much will be dependent on the ground come the day.
My head does say KS to win and having backed him last year I almost feel an allegiance.
However! Denman having a serious chance, better than a “one punch” fighter, I will have to go with him.
5/2 on the day would be fair enough imo, he may even drift nearer 3/1 if KS is heavily backed.
I would rather take that “risk” at 5/2 ish than the “risk” of KS at around evens.I honestly think that if Paul Nicholls HAD to tell you right now which is the better horse, he would prob say KS with the proviso that Denman could be even better and vanquish his stablemate.
Like everyone here, I cannot wait – let us hope we are not robbed of this surely momentous eyeball to eyeball battle…
Poor ol’ Istabraq robbed of a 4th Champion Hurdle Crown
Zip
‘Denman will never catch me. When I meet Denman, I’ll be as free as a bird’, and he held up his hooves and opened them. A bird flew out.
Having looked at Denmans speed figures, have to concede he hasn’t yet clocked a performance like Kauto’s best ones. I’d like to see him stretch and mebbe beat him. Though I wouldn’t bet on the race.
They put the Ali/Foreman fight back after injury scare but unfortunately for KS they don’t have that option open to them.
It’s going to be a nervous few weeks between now and Cheltenham. Hopefully there will be no more injury scares and we will get the great race that we all want. For me, I’m hoping Exotic Dancer makes it there fit and well just as much as I’m hoping for Kauto Star and Denman to get there. Considering his race record it’s amazing that ED has become the forgotten horse of the race. I’ve backed him each-way at 14-1 and I think that’s outstanding value. Obviously, I’m a little bit concerned about some problems the horse has had that made him miss the Pillar chase but if he is fit and well on Gold Cup day he’ll be much more of a threat than is being made out at the moment.
missed all of this last night as a I was watching a film, so it was an awful shock late last night when I heard of the injury scare; yesterday was the first time that Kauto Star had actually made me feel that I was watching a truly great horse that would go down in the history books as such, and, unlike last year, he had become the finished product, the real deal and I felt quite emOtional watching him run and jump so beautifully – Kauto needs Denman in the Gold Cup to show without any trace of a doubt that he is the stuff of racing legend….I had such a dread that something was going to prevent this match from happening, and now, when it does I think we shall all savour it even more..
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