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I haven’t been delving into the form book recently. I haven’t been watching and re-watching race videos of late. In fact I’ve been doing no objective analysis of the Gold Cup at all. In addition to all that I have a decent amount of money riding on Kauto Star, based on a period earlier in the year when I did all of the above..
And yet, for some illogical reason, my subconscious has been leading me inexorably towards the conclusion that Denman will win the Gold Cup. The notion keeps popping up unannounced, and most certainly unwanted given my current financial involvement in the race, Not only does it suggest he’ll win, it claims that he’ll win it comfortably.
Funny thing, the subconscious.
For me it comes down to how good Denman actually is. He looks a monster and has run some good horses ragged this season. However, he has never taken on a horse with Kauto’s class before. Once Denman winds up to top speed can he shake off Kauto? In my opinion he won’t – I feel Kauto will be too good for him on the day and will win his second GC.
If Exotic Dancer is to win at the festival then surley the QM or the Ryanair could be the one to gor for.
Exotic Dancer has had hid heart broken many times now by Kauto Star and may be a shadow of his former self if he is mentally unsound.
I do believe that Barry Geraghty should ride him as he gave him a great ride at Haydock as AP will not be 100% in my view.
If he continues to improve and has no more little niggles you wouold have to send him for the Gold Cup because there is only one.
If something happened to Kauto God forbid, Denman proved to be overrated and some 66/1 shot won it. RO would be as sick as a parrot wondering what would have been
When you have a horse as good as ED you just have to take the chance I would have thought.
If he continues to improve and has no more little niggles you wouold have to send him for the Gold Cup because there is only one.
If something happened to Kauto God forbid, Denman proved to be overrated and some 66/1 shot won it. RO would be as sick as a parrot wondering what would have been
When you have a horse as good as ED you just have to take the chance I would have thought.
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i agree as much as i would like to see ED in a race that he has a chance of winning would not make much sense to stick him in the ryanir as what Fist said could come true
Just to add some spice to the discussion, I would put forward the following hypothesis:-
“Any debate as to which of Kauto Star or Denman is the better is meaningless in the context of the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup.”
Why – because the two horses are not competing on equal terms.
Kauto Star stands to win a £1m bonus if he wins the race, Denman doesn’t.
If you were training the same two horses, in the same circumstances, which horse would you ensure was fitter on the day?
I certainly know which one I would have fitter.
Discuss!!!
Kauto Star stands to win a £1m bonus if he wins the race, Denman doesn’t.
A very good point – and certainly one which even the most hardened Denman supporter must take into consideration and not dismiss lightly. Not that I’m saying that there will be any jiggery – pokery, of course… no, no, no…
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Kauto Star stands to win a £1m bonus if he wins the race, Denman doesn’t.
A very good point – and certainly one which even the most hardened Denman supporter must take into consideration and not dismiss lightly. Not that I’m saying that there will be any jiggery – pokery, of course… no, no, no…
Just curious…. when Kauto hammers Denman and wins the GC what excuse will you lead off with in defence of your beloved horse?
Just curious…. when Kauto hammers Denman and wins the GC what excuse will you lead off with in defence of your beloved horse?
That one, of course !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Just curious…. when Kauto hammers Denman and wins the GC what excuse will you lead off with in defence of your beloved horse?
That one, of course !
I’m sure you’ll think up more between now and the race!
Just to add some spice to the discussion, I would put forward the following hypothesis:-
“Any debate as to which of Kauto Star or Denman is the better is meaningless in the context of the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup.”
Why – because the two horses are not competing on equal terms.
Kauto Star stands to win a £1m bonus if he wins the race, Denman doesn’t.
If you were training the same two horses, in the same circumstances, which horse would you ensure was fitter on the day?
I certainly know which one I would have fitter.
Your a grand lad Paul but your a tiny wee bit off the mark.
Harry Findlay is no one’s mug as much as many people think he’s a bit brash he’s a very astute man.
If he thought for one minute Paul Nicholls would do something so stupid as send Denman to Cheltehamn any less that 110% fit he would have the horse out the yard before you could say Pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis
If that was the case and it got out he would lose half the horses in the yard and no one would ever trust him again.
I’m pretty sure if Kauto Star’s owner thought he had stopped Denman he to would disown PN…plus it’s not PN’s million anyway….just wouldn’t happen IMO
Just to add some spice to the discussion, I would put forward the following hypothesis:-
“Any debate as to which of Kauto Star or Denman is the better is meaningless in the context of the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup.”[/color:912w4wju]
Why – because the two horses are not competing on equal terms.Kauto Star stands to win a £1m bonus if he wins the race, Denman doesn’t.
If you were training the same two horses, in the same circumstances, which horse would you ensure was fitter on the day?
I certainly know which one I would have fitter.
Discuss!!!
I see the Denman excuse machine is starting to roll.
Both animals will be running on merit – unless you see Clive Smith handing Barber & Findlay an unmarked brown envelope before the race. I think you would probably find a nice percentage of a cool million inside.
The statement I have highlighted above is interesting. I’d like to put a different spin on it. The racing public want to see a Denman vs Kauto Star gold cup to see who is the better horse. Personally, win or lose, Kauto Star is still the premier talent in National Hunt racing. There’s not a horse who even comes close to displaying his class and versatility.
Denman is frighteningly talented and the conditions of a Gold Cup are tailor-made for him. He may not have the class of Kauto Star, but, I hasten to add, the best horse doesn’t always win the Gold Cup. In the last 20 years, winners of the Blue Riband include Norton’s Coin, Cool Ground, Master Oats, Imperial Call, Mr Mulligan and Cool Dawn – hardly world beaters. However, all of them were proper ‘Gold Cup horses’.
Denman reminds me of both Master Oats and Mr Mulligan – a bold front-runner who really attacks his fences and just gallops. He is however, regardless of his immense talent, a very one-dimensional horse. We know he needs three-miles on preferably soft ground. He has to be ridden from the front and, from what we’ve seen thus far, needs to go left-handed – just three of his twelve wins have been on a right-handed course (two of which were over hurdles).
It’s the conditions of the race that make it very, very interesting. Would you be as excited if the two main potagonists were to meet over three-miles on just about any park course in the country? Probably not, because Kauto Star would be a very warm favourite.Of course, Denman’s connections and his army of supporters hold no interest in seeing ‘the big lad’ compete over two miles. Neither do they wish to see him show a supreme turn of foot and win a race coming from last to first. It’s not his style and it’s his style that is so endearing.
But surly a top class victory going right-handed is not too much to ask, is it? A sharp three miles around Kempton at Christmas would be nice!
Kauto Star is such a wonderfully versatile horse. Left or right-handed, galloping track, sharp track, undulating or flat, two miles or three miles plus, held-up or ridden handy – it doesn’t matter to him.
It’s funny, I think all the pressure is on Camp Denman. Kauto Star has proven himself against the very best already, but Denman has it all to prove. If he, a tailor-made horse for the Gold Cup, can’t beat Kauto Star over three miles-two furlongs around Cheltenham, especially on a soft ground, what chance is there of Denman beating him anywhere else?
If The Star loses, there’s plenty of races still available to him. If he’s victorious, he would have beaten a ‘Gold Cup horse’ at his own game and will enhance his reputation even further.
Two weeks today, all will be revealed…
I see the Denman excuse machine is starting to roll.
Not from me it isn’t – I have a decidedly neutral view of the Kauto / Denman debate – I believe cogent arguments could be made for either to win.
My only financial interest in the race is a small each way investment on Exotic Dancer – which looks like going up the creek anyway.
Personally I do believe both will run on their merits, however the scenario I described is a possibility, albeit a remote one, and there is no harm throwing it into the ring for discussion.
I was deliberately careful in my original post, I said was proposing a hypothesis.
All I do know for sure is I am really looking forward to 3:15 on the 14th.
As long as the race isn’t an anti-climax and both run to their full potential I honestly don’t care who wins.
Then again we could all (well almost all) get a shock and the big two end up battling it out for second place!!!!
Just read last years third Turpin Green has injured himself and doesn’t run
With there still being a definate doubt that ED might not get there it is looking more and more like Kauto Denman and a bunch of complete no hopers……..Just read last years third Turpin Green has injured himself and doesn’t run
With there still being a definate doubt that ED might not get there it is looking more and more like Kauto Denman and a bunch of complete no hopers……..Just a few hours ago on the Jonjo thread you said ED was ‘right as rain’ and that it had all been blown out of proportion.
Now you’re saying that there is a ‘definate doubt that ED might not get there’.
Which one is it Fist? Or are you edging your bets?
Mike
Sorry Fist, reading back the above post please don’t take it the wrong way. I’m genuinely asking the question because the 20/1 about ED is a cracking e/w bet if he was to turn up for the Gold Cup.
So if you know something then please tell me – I want to place a bet
Is he ‘right as rain’ or is he ‘doubtful’?
Mike
Sorry Fist, reading back the above post please don’t take it the wrong way. I’m genuinely asking the question because the 20/1 about ED is a cracking e/w bet if he was to turn up for the Gold Cup.
So if you know something then please tell me – I want to place a bet
Is he ‘right as rain’ or is he ‘doubtful’?
Mike
PM you mate
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