February 16, 2007 at 15:32 #866jonny33Member
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who would win over 2 miles on a park track at level weights on soft?February 16, 2007 at 15:35 #38872PAULCSMember
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<br>Kauto just for me but hopefully we’ll see it albeit over 2m4f at Aintree…..February 16, 2007 at 16:12 #38873AnonymousInactive
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Personally on form this season you would have to say Kauto.
Not that well chief did anyhing wrong in the slightest. I am really looking forward to seeing Well Chief run again at Cheltenham and I hope everyone stays on their feet and we can see just how good a machine it still is.
Ladbrokes go 7/4 that the 4 championship races are won by over 15 lengths combined. Can’t get my head around whether its a decent bet or not.
I am guessing CH will be very close, but the other 3 could in theory be won by a margin.
What does everyone think?February 16, 2007 at 16:49 #38874AragornMember
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I’d rather lay it.. I can’t see any of them being won by that far.. Even Kauto in the gold cup, if he stands up, will do well to win by more than 5 lengths..February 16, 2007 at 16:49 #38875
Looks a great bet but I can’t have it. It only takes one imperious performance and that’s it you’ve won.February 16, 2007 at 17:36 #38876AnonymousInactive
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Just to put it ‘out there’ – I will speculate the winning distances and horses I believe! (for the record, Ladbrokes offer 7/4 under 11 lengths, 7/4 for 11-15 lengths and 7/4 for over 15 lengths).
Champion Hurdle: Brave Inca – 1/2 length ( my heart says Detroit, but my head Brave Inca)<br>Queen Mother – Well chief – 4 lengths (My bets say Newmill, didn’t realise the machine would return so good)<br>World Hurdle – Inglis Drever – 2 lengths (My head wants BJK but after his last performance you have to brave to back him at his odds)<br>Gold Cup – Kauto Star – 7 lengths – Head and heart. I think if it stands up it wins (Big if I guess). I think it will stand and I think it will win comfortably.
So I guess 13 1/2 lengths.February 16, 2007 at 18:28 #38877AraziMember
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At his best I’d pick Well Chief to beat Kauto Star over 2m, even on soft ground.
Hopefully we will get to see them race each other one day.February 18, 2007 at 19:41 #38878
Well Chief v Kauto Star would be a thrilling contest. I would give the edge to KS on the grounds that there may be more to come from him, if he were extended throughout a race. Then again there is of course always the possibility that he might try and walk through one and end up on the deck. I like both these horses and hopefully they will both be winners next month.February 18, 2007 at 20:31 #38879
Sorry what did Well Chief do wrong last Saturday? He must of done something wrong to make you all so keen to take him on with Kauto Star on his own patch.February 18, 2007 at 21:23 #38880
I wouldn’t say he did anything wrong, I was thrilled to watch his performance and he’s one of my favourite horses. I would only just give the nod to Kauto Star but there would be less than a length in it.February 19, 2007 at 11:45 #38881DannyMember
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I think Kauto Star would probably just have the edge over Well Chief over 2ml 4f but 3 others horses that i’d like to see win at cheltenham that could run at aintree are Denman, My Way De Solzen and Fair Along how good would the race be then. i think Fair Along would have the best chance to challenge KS and WC tho if he where to set off at a good pace and put KS jumping under pressure early on who knows what could happen.<br>February 19, 2007 at 12:05 #38882
You see, I don’t think KS is a poor jumper per se, so I don’t think that putting his jumping under pressure by going at a stronger pace would make any difference, indeed Nicholls seems to think it would suit him better. He just has a tendency to throw in a dodgy one every now and then. It can happen when he is way in front or when he is being challenged, it can happen at the start, or the end of a race and it is something that no amount of schooling has been able to overcome.
I found his performance in the Aon Chase extraordinary, and trying to get to the bottom of why he does what he does ended in my writing the article on the blog below. It didn’t help me to reach any conclusions, but I am still fascinated by the ease with which he races and yet at the same time, the appalling fencing errors he makes.February 21, 2007 at 00:02 #38883arkle66Member
- Total Posts 16
Lets hope Aintree is on the soft side of good so we can see it! (I know the Melling is 2 1/2 miles but no reason why an older Well Chief can’t stay)
My view is that Kauto jumps well, 4ish errors this season in very good races (3 gr1’s and 2 gr2’s), never looked like falling and all coming when max pressure is on at the end of races, so if Kauto can cruise to the last (highly probable) its got to be a hell of a mistake to dislodge Mr Walsh from winning his first Gold Cup!
Huge Best Mate fan but race of the last decade for me is the 2004 Tingle Creek where the 3 all had a chances turning in, that form wins Well Chief the QM easily for me. (or within a stone of it)
On the match I’ll decide after Cheltenham.February 21, 2007 at 00:07 #38884davidjohnsonMember
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Well Chief strikes me as being best at 2m. I’d be surprised if he could defeat Kauto Star over further.February 21, 2007 at 01:40 #38885
Its purely theoretical, but would anyone still back Kauto Star if it raced against Well Chief over 1m4f in a chase?
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