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History has a habit of repeating itself.
Denman ran badly at Aintree then what?
Gives the best part of 2 stone to a horse that then wins a grade 1 chase.
Watch the 2008 race again…link below
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIQTzaCWnmA
You can be sure AP McCoy will be watching re-runs of this and looking to repeat the dose.
Denman will be up there from the start and will put Kauto under pressure with a circuit to go.
Kauto may be unbeatable at Kempton but not round Cheltenham.
4/1 for Denman will be looking very generous odds when he leads into the home straight with rest struggling behind him.
You will be eating humble pie then CS.
Question Sea Pigeon, do you think that was Kauto Star at his best
I have watched the rerun a few times and Kauto did not make any serious jumping errors, maybe he ran 5 pounds below par.
Kauto is unbeaten for several years going right handed but is vulnerable left handed, he has only won 3 out of his last 7 runs left handed but has won all his last 8 races going right handed.
He will not be able to let Denman steal a march on him because even minor jumping errors will then take him out of his comfort zone particularly if Denham starts to pile on the pace.
If I was Denman’s owner I would instruct McCoy to have him in the first 3 until they pass the stands with a circuit to go and then to take the race by the scruff of the neck and put the other runners under pressure.
I am sure that the main reason Denman got beat last time was that he simply was not fit, although you wouldn’t here AP McCoy criticising the trainer for that if he wanted to keep the ride.
If you look at official ratings on performances on left handed tracks then Denman has 4 pounds in hand of Kauto and on that basis he should win by 5 lengths or thereabouts.
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My worry is Kauto showed signs at haydock he may not have retained the instant acceleration he will neeed to win his 3rd Gold Cup.
He simply coulldn’t go with Imperial Commander when he quickened and it was 3 out when even if he was needing the race, he should have been able to quicken with him that far out.
Fortunately for him Imperial Comander was stopped when he clobbered the next fence and he ended up beating him in a slog to the line.
Denman doesn’t depend on acceleration he just a big brute of a galloper.
AP on board doesn’t exactly have me thimnking this will be easy. The man is a genius at knowing exactly when to increase a pace and by how much that it leaves other jockey wondering what the hell just happened.
No doubt Kauto isn’t as fast as he once was, it’s always the first thing to go in any horse, but he still travells as well as Denman when on song.
For me this is what this race is all about this year. How well will Kauto Star travel?
If he gets into a nice even rhythm Denman no matter how fast he goes wont get him off the bridle and he would surley still do the big horse for toe down the hill even if he hasn’t retained all of his speed.
Get 5 lengths behind Tony McCoy with 3 to jump you aren’t going to pass him. He might get to him but then you still have to get past one tough horse and an even tougher jockey.
Be a great race, I hope Kauto wins, but after a long hard look at the Haydock race I’m not prepared to say he’s any sort of certainty.
I’ll go:
1. Denman
2. Imperial Commader
3. Kauto Star
But be warned I’ve had a few beers and will probably edit this post tomorrow
Well, it appears to be time to pin one’s colours.
I’m with the ever decreasing Denman club.
KS is a superstar and the best jumps horse I have ever seen, though I was only a randy thought in my father’s head around the time of Arkle. However, the GC has to be viewed independently.
I know many forumites feel KS was not at his best when beaten by Denman in 08, but I’m not convinced. There can be no argument that Denman was not 100% when coming 2nd last year.
At 4/1 Denman has to be a stonking E/W bet.
I am concerned about his Newbury fall, and a little surprised that he wasn’t given another race following that, but overall there doesn’t appear to be any real concerns about his jumping as it is usually flawless. He is also proven under GC conditions which is a big plus.
So, assuming his jumping hasn’t gone to pot (is that the doubt that is making the bookies offer a crazy 4/1?), then it will be…
Triumph for the Tank!!!!!!
Zip
Graham Bradley recently stated that Kauto Star’s 2010 King George victory at Kempton was the most impressive chasing performance he has witnessed.
It is certainly among the best I have witnessed, and it is the memory of that outstanding performance, allied to Denman’s last run, which has altered my thinking on the outcome of this year’s Gold Cup.
Like the great pro punter, Alex Bird once said; "trust your eyes."
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I will actually be emotional if Kauto Star gets beaten!
So will I and I am supposed to be there, so it will get very messy.
Fists post is a load of old grannys mince. If Imperial Commander finishes ahead of Kauto, i will phone Paparazi and tell them i’m wearing Pink Pyjamas, and i’m going to break into Elton Johns bedroom window, meet me there mates. Kauto is nowhere near 100% for his re-appearance, and they just want to make sure his still has it. The kauto at Haydock isn’t a shadow of what he is afterwards at kempton and Cheltenham. Imperial Commander in my opinion won’t finish ahead of Cooldine, and might not even get in the top 4 if Denman is firing on the day.
Himself. Fist. I’m very disappointed in the pair of you.
Denman for the Gold Cup…Nah, just kidding!
Let me set the record straight before I continue. Kauto Star is the superior horse. Regardless of what happens, his longevity, versatility, race record and record breaking feats are testament to this.
Now, let’s rewind to 2008. Denman was awesome and you could call him the winner a long way out. He was completely legless coming up the hill and it wasn’t the prettiest run-in to watch, but he was ultra-impressive on the day and no valid excuses could be made from Kauto Star fans.
There may have been no valid excuses, but anyone who knows anything about the sport will tell you that Kauto Star was never travelling or jumping with his usual zest long before Denman took command of the race.
Below is a post I submitted to the ‘King George’ thread:
‘I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I witnessed firsthand Kauto before and after his respective Gold Cup efforts in 2008 and 2009 and, believe me, he looked a completely different horse on both occasions.
He had no bounce in his step in the pre-parade before his defeat to Denman in 2008. Fast-forward one year and you would swear they were two different horses. He looked fresh and full of himself’
This is somewhat supported by Mike Cattermole’s ‘Case For Kauto’ on the ATR website:
‘Want confirmation that Kauto was below par? Just have a word with Donna Blake who looks after him at home. She knows Kauto inside out and she will tell you that he was not himself from the moment he left his box at Ditcheat to the moment he walked off the track.’
The proximity of Neptune Collonges in third that day told its own story. The admirable grey is a decent horse, but only a shorthead inferior to Kauto Star? No chance.
In 2009, it was a different story. Kauto Star, kept fresh and well after his third King George, was always going to regain his crown after the heart problems Denman endured. Kauto looked full of himself and put in the most complete Gold Cup performance I’ve ever seen.
Easy to look at that race and say Denman wasn’t at his best, but there was a far more useful yardstick back in third – Exotic Dancer. Kauto Star had always struggled to defeat his longtime rival on a left-handed track, yet thrashed him 15L that day. Could Kauto really be improving at the age of nine?
Fast-forward to Boxing Day and the answer could be ‘yes’. Winning by a record-breaking 36L, Kauto Star won by a greater distance than his three previous efforts combined! I’ve heard much nonsense about how some of the field ran below-par and how it wasn’t a great race. They were genuine Grade One horses and he treated them with disdain, never out of third gear.
The field were strung out like Paris Hilton’s washing for good reason. They went a ferocious pace around a track where there is no hiding place over three miles. The only horse that could travel, jump and quicken off that pace was the only horse left standing – Kauto Star.
If he goes to Cheltenham in that kind of form, nothing will get near him. A Denman at the peak of his powers would not have got within 15L of Kauto Star that day…but Kempton isn’t Cheltenham, is it?
To quote Richard Burridge in his book ‘The Grey Horse’:
Kempton rewards brilliance and fast jumping, while Cheltenham suits the slogger.
Denman is perfectly suited to the demands of Prestbury Park, which can be a great equaliser of talent. A course that is second to none for excitement, but one that isn’t necessarily the best in determining who the better horse is.
I still maintain that Denman should have won the Aon Chase despite not being 100%. I’m not convinced McCoy is the most suitable jockey, but Denman will not be lose due to lack of assistance from the saddle. McCoy is still up there with the very best and it’s folly to presume otherwise. I believe Denman is ideally suited to a jockey with ‘quiet hands’. What the horse doesn’t want is for McCoy to be looking over his shoulder every other stride if Kauto Star is stalking him.
McCoy must have nightmares about the horse and it will be interesting to see how he reacts if his nemesis comes there cruising three out.
I’ve often compared Kauto Star and Denman to another sporting rivalry – Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Kauto, like Federder, is technically superior and is incredibly versatile. Denman, like Nadal, is a slogger who never does anything pretty or easily, but can grind out a victory with the very best of ’em.
That’s the worry I have about Denman. He never does anything easily, even when he wins convincingly, just because of the way he runs. Much is made about Kauto Star’s breeding, but Denman has had much the harder races and it wouldn’t surprise me if The Tank ran out of gas before his nextdoor neighbour – just look at the problems Nadal has endured compared to Federer. Paul Nicholls has stated that you will never see Denman blitz a field like he did two years ago. If he can no longer do that, then that’s a huge dent in his arsenal.
Denman at his very best is the one to beat, simply because of his immense talent around a course that plays to his strengths – he’s the one you have to get past, after all. However, it’s hard to know what Denman will turn up after the conflicting reports from connections post-Aon. If he is back to his best, he’ll be hard to beat, but Kauto Star is no ordinary horse and we could see something very, very special from him yet again.
I sincerely hope we do…
Always was and still am, a Denman fan. However I have always proscribed to old adage ‘they never come back’ particularly after an severe illness or injury. No doubt someone will show me that this a mistaken policy but you have to go with your system.
Am now in the KS camp but will not be backing him as I have had a good ew bet on Tricky Trickster and at 5/1 a place that will do me.
The ground conditions alone will suit Kauto Star more than Denman.
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ON MARCH 19TH 2000, KAUTO RELKA GAVE BIRTH TO A SUPERSTAR WHO WOULD LATER BE CALLED…KAUTO STAR.
WILL IT BE A HAPPY BIRTHDAY FOR KAUTO STAR?
I really want to see Kauto win tomorrow. Will be keeping my fingers crossed for him and Ruby.
I will propbably watch from behind the sofa this year last year i watched on the big screen in reception at work it was amazing how many of my colleagues also had to be in reception at that time not to mention a probable health & safety issue there was only 1 denman fan amongst them & he’s since been converted !!
I will probably scream like a banshee & cry like a baby no matter what the result.
God I don’t ask for much so Please Please Please can Kauto win tommorrow.
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