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I’ve been more vocal than most in supporting Kauto Star for the Gold Cup, but it wouldn’t be a surprise, nor the end of the world, if he tasted defeat tomorrow.
Monet’s Garden won the race last year (albeit over approx 2f shorter), but his career record between 2m3f – 2m6f is solid. This horse is very dangerous over 2m4f and there are fewer better over that distance – the extra two furlongs should not inconvenience. It may not dent his chances too severely, but coupled with the 14lb pull Kauto Star receives on their Old Roan form, it will probably hand the initiative to the Gold Cup favourite. Kauto Star is a class act going either way but is slightly better going left-handed. However, a galloping, testing track like Ascot will not be a problem over this distance.
Racing Demon is a very talented horse going right-handed and will be hard to keep out of the frame. However, it is quite possible that certain conditions will not be in his favour. He’s never won beyond 2m4f and this testing track could well find him out.
Howle Hill is quite interesting. His 9L fourth to Master Minded (would have been closer but for a bad mistake) is thus far his only defeat over fences. He’s demonstrated his ability over the course and could reach a place if he handles the distance.
Vodka Bleu, well beaten in this last year, and Arkle second Fair Along are both talented performers but will find it tough against the aforementioned quartet.
Given the conditions, Kauto Star should win this. It won’t be claimed in the same emphatic fashion as his stable companions Aon romp, but it is testament to this horses ability that a drop back in distance over a testing course, facing stiff fences against decent opposition, is considered as a ‘warm-up’ for the Gold Cup, which is less than four weeks away.
You can’t expect him to be given too hard a race and any lack of effort from his connections will be punished by Monet’s Garden. Racing Demon and Howle Hill are taken to battle for third spot. Win or lose, Kauto Star will still be the one to beat in March.
Let’s just pray he returns in one piece…
Its possible that Kauto could be more vulnerable tomorrow than in the Gold Cup. The older he gets the more Kauto looks like a stayer and 21 furlongs is on the short side for him. If the forecast good ground is accurate then again it wouldn’t be perfect. IMO Kauto is at his very best on good to soft / soft ground over a flat three miles. If you look at his record on good ground it isn’t quite as good.
If Kauto Star wins this race on the bridle then no-one is going to be surprised are they? Least of all me. The horse is a machine BUT I’ve never known any horse anywhere that is unbeatable and if things are not ideal for a horse then they’re just a fraction more vulnerable.
Monets Garden is capable and this funny Ascot seems to favour front runners and its possible Monets will try and lead all the way. However I’m not convinced by this horse he throws in shockers when he feels like it and I think his optimum is possibly going left handed and this track might just stretch his stamina.
I’ve had a bet on Racing Demon. He’s a big price loves the trip. His form at 21 furlongs is outstanding – three wins and he loves a right handed track performs far better going right handed. If the ground is good he’ll love it but will handle good to soft and he has enough stamina to be placed in the highest company over three miles. At around 10.5 on Betfair he’s a fair alternative if Kauto doesn’t fire.
I expect Kauto to win but you just never know.
This is a prep for Kauto whereas the others wll have been trained specifically for this race.
If he puts in a performance like his AON win last year then this is nowhere near a formality.
I think he’s improved out of all recognition this season TDK and there is no ED in this race he has to worry about……….I doubt very much he was anywhere near as fit when 100% fit Monet Garden beat him this season.
With Kauto looking to have improved more than 7lbs since last year,and the fact he is 1 stone better off with MG, who is clear 2nd fav. I can’t see where the danger is suppused to come from.
I think that Racing Demon might just get his day to show his true talent as he hates Cheltenham and does not stay 3m.
Monets Garden will have this and the Meilling as his two big targets but as has been pointed out he will be level with Kauto Star as opposed to Aintree in October which was the only chance they would ever get of beating Kauto Star.
As much as a class horse Kauto Star is i would not be shocked if he was to be beaten tomorrow
For those of you who are thinking of opposing Kauto Star, I think I should just point out that when he has completed the course in chases, he has only ever been beaten by horses beginning with ‘M’.
Chases in which KS has been beaten into 2nd place: 3
Chases in which KS has been beaten into 2nd place by a horse beginning with ‘M’: 3
=100%You can’t argue with the stats, and with the Hogan horse looking a little outclassed, it has to be Monet’s Garden if you’re looking for an alternative.
the key to his improvement this year is his jumping i feel. Cant see him being beaten tomorrow at all. His best ever run was his last one for me and could even improve upon that
Charlie – Nicholls says in his column “…but whereas for Kauto this is a stepping stone to Cheltenham, for Monet’s Garden this is his Gold Cup and he’ll be spot on”
I wasn’t suggesting for a second that KS won’t be trying – of course he will – it is just that Nicholls won’t have him at his peak for today.
That, coupled with a slightly shorter trip than ideal, going right handed and running at a notoriously dodgy track makes KS beatable today.
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I’d say he has improved this season. PN also thinks he has by dint of him being ridden more positively, thus enabling him to jump better than when restrained.
I also think that the chances of him not being more forward than last year’s Aon are minimal. This race is a week closer to his ultimate target, and he wouldn’t have needed to be let down as much this year, not having had 4 races quite close together. Once again, his trainer states that he will be much fitter this year for today’s gd1 than he was last season for the gd2 Aon.
I wouldn’t take him on today with someone else’s money.In receipt of 14lbs, Monet’s Garden was entitled to beat a less than fully fit Kauto Star at Aintree; but off levels Monet and the rest haven’t a prayer – even at 2m 5f or round the right-handed Ascot course. Interesting to hear Paul Nicholls state that he thinks if the Gold Cup was run at Newbury, Denman would win – even with Kauto in the field.
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And could you argue with that Himself? Denmans’ performances in the Hennessey & Aon were nothing short of breathtaking, whereas Kauto Stars’ only visit culminated in a necks’ defeat of L’Ami at 2/9 (albeit donating 10lbs). On bare course form, what PFN said should surprise no one.
I’ve never been to either course though, could someone enlighten me as to the major differences in terms of layout? They both look like big, galloping tracks, with Newbury perhaps lacking the downhill run before the home turn and the same degree of uphill finish that Cheltenham possesses.
And could you argue with that Himself?
Certainly not, as I am firmly in the Denman camp, and believe that he will usurp the great Kauto at Cheltenham.
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Charlie – Nicholls says in his column “…but whereas for Kauto this is a stepping stone to Cheltenham, for Monet’s Garden this is his Gold Cup and he’ll be spot on”
Interesting statement by Nichols, but most NH races are treated as a stepping stone to Cheltenham – the NH family think of nothing else, i’m afraid
I wasn’t suggesting for a second that KS won’t be trying – of course he will – it is just that Nicholls won’t have him at his peak for today.
No, i can see that now – misinterpretation on my part
That, coupled with a slightly shorter trip than ideal, going right handed and running at a notoriously dodgy track makes KS beatable today.
Can’t see trip, track or direction being a problem myself and i think he’ll take this in similar style to the KG
For those of you who are thinking of opposing Kauto Star, I think I should just point out that when he has completed the course in chases, he has only ever been beaten by horses beginning with ‘M’.
Chases in which KS has been beaten into 2nd place: 3
Chases in which KS has been beaten into 2nd place by a horse beginning with ‘M’: 3
=100%You can’t argue with the stats, and with the Hogan horse looking a little outclassed, it has to be Monet’s Garden if you’re looking for an alternative.
MMMMMMMM!!!!! interetsing
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