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Can Voy Por Ustedes really test Kauto Star? If Kauto Star jumps fluently without making any mistakes I really can’t see the others challenging it. Is there anyone on here willing to oppose Kauto Star and if so why?
No I’ve had enough bad luck to last a normal person a lifetime! Tomorrow maybe. Anyway going back to the question about the Tingle Creek……..
I’m not saying it’s going to be easy for Kauto, but I really can’t see anything troubling him tomorrow.
Voy Por Ustedes beat a smart animal in Monet’s Garden, there’s no doubting that, but I can’t believe he’ll be fit enough to take on one of the best chasers we’ve seen for some time, first time out. Even if in top shape he’d have to go some to come out on top.
I’m not an odds-on backer, so 1/2 doesn’t come close to appealing to me, but I’d say it’s as close to buying money as you can come (any bet is placed at your own risk).
Just to add this is where my elimination system becomes flawed. I’m left with Kauto Star, Central House and Voy Por Ustedes which is fine. However the checkbox/postdata leaves me with 15!! ticks for KS, 9 for VPU and 7 for Central House.
This gives me odds to 100% of
Kauto Star 1/1 (4/7)<br>Voy Por Ustedes 9/4 (11/4)<br>Central House 9/2 (12/1)
This makes Central House and VPU good value, BUT I don’t think Central House is good enough and I’m not keen on opposing Kauto Star. However thats exactly what I’m going to do, as true to my tissue I’m going to do a 2pt lay on Kauto Star. Good luck to me lol!
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 1:13 am on Dec. 2, 2006)
What price would Kingscliff have been for this race last season after his Betfair Chase win? Voy Por Ustedes and Central House for me.
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FSL
Maybe you shouldn’t be guided too much by your tissue?<br> KS has the best 2 mile form in the race, the best overall form in the race, has proved himself outside novice company, is 22lb clear of VPU on handicap ratings, 9lb clear on speed ratings, won the same race last year, and is proven fit and in top form.<br> When did ‘value’ ever outweigh logic?:o
Quote: from Mounty on 8:58 am on Dec. 2, 2006[br]What price would Kingscliff have been for this race last season after his Betfair Chase win?
Really don’t see the relevance of this at all. Kingscliff didn’t have 2m form that already gave him the beating of everything else and Kauto Star hasn’t got a history of running poorly with no obvious explanation.
The only thing that can beat KS today is KS. It’s a very similar scenario to when MF was running in 5 and 6 runner 2m chases in Ireland at odds of 1/3 etc. He was never backable because, hand on heart, you always knew that the only way he could be beaten was if he ended up on the floor. And KS is no sure thing to get around. He’s more MF than Best Mate jumping-wise because he tries to wing every fence. He’s fallen twice in 7 chases.
An interesting (well to me anyway) statistic for those looking to back KS today is that if you had backed MF at SP in every one of his non-novice races where he started at odds-on (excl last season), you would be down over 1 pt overall. I just can’t ever justify backing him at those odds.
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