Noble Prince (Naas)
money back if odds on pair win and Poquelin loses.
This is not impossible – about a 40% chance of money back. So a positive expectation bet or, if you prefer, a guaranteed profit if you hedge back by laying each horse in succession. e.g. lay Noble Prince for 110 , 10 profit if it loses, otherwise lay Poquelin for 60 etc.
Grands Cru 7/1 NRNB Ladbroke Gold Cup 2012. If he does run he will be in good form and he could easily go off at 5/1. The only slight problem is if LR or Kauto drop out there is a rule 4 deduction.
GC is 10/1 elsewhere antepost GC. But he is 5-1 on the machine for the RSA. Assuming he would be 2-1 with a run for the RSA suggests he is about 50% likely to run in the RSA. So the equivalent of 10-1 (11.0) antepost GC is about 9/2 (5.5) NRNB, assuming 50% chance of a run.
Possibly an each-way value bet as well. But 7/4 for a place looks about right given he is unproven in big races and there is the possibility of blowing up under pressure.
Could be an arb as well – long at 7-1 and short most of it at 9-1 antepost would win big if he didn’t turn up.