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kasparov’s nerdy bets

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  • #20065
    kasparovkasparov
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    100 points Betfair SP banker treble

    Noble Prince (Naas)
    Poquelin (Wetherby)
    Scoobydoo (Wetherby)

    money back if odds on pair win and Poquelin loses.

    This is not impossible – about a 40% chance of money back. So a positive expectation bet or, if you prefer, a guaranteed profit if you hedge back by laying each horse in succession. e.g. lay Noble Prince for 110 , 10 profit if it loses, otherwise lay Poquelin for 60 etc.

    #378546
    kasparovkasparov
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    Masterminded and Long Run both to lose 5/2 William Hill.

    MM is 2/1 in places and LR 5/4. So decimal odds of both losing should be 2.75, whereas WH are offering 3.5.

    You can hedge back by backing MM and LR. Do MM first then if MM loses back LR big.

    #383417
    kasparovkasparov
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    Captain Chris 8/1 e/w Paddy power antepost rules 1/4 first 3 arb for King George.

    #385181
    kasparovkasparov
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    Grands Cru 7/1 NRNB Ladbroke Gold Cup 2012. If he does run he will be in good form and he could easily go off at 5/1. The only slight problem is if LR or Kauto drop out there is a rule 4 deduction.

    GC is 10/1 elsewhere antepost GC. But he is 5-1 on the machine for the RSA. Assuming he would be 2-1 with a run for the RSA suggests he is about 50% likely to run in the RSA. So the equivalent of 10-1 (11.0) antepost GC is about 9/2 (5.5) NRNB, assuming 50% chance of a run.

    Possibly an each-way value bet as well. But 7/4 for a place looks about right given he is unproven in big races and there is the possibility of blowing up under pressure.

    Could be an arb as well – long at 7-1 and short most of it at 9-1 antepost would win big if he didn’t turn up.

    #392400
    kasparovkasparov
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    Strange but true there is some free money available this morning.

    In the who will start fav market for the Gold Cup, what should LR be? I reckon about 1/3 . However, you can get 8/11 at Totesport. I don’t think this will last long.

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