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Thank you Sam
I do like Doctor Parnassus, hence why he was the original and has now reclaimed #2. Stamina is assured and if he does make the running, then better for Irish Hill. One concern is Dan Skelton’s first time clear round rate of 96.3%. This is still pretty good (average is 96.07%), but less so given the yard’s overall quality and while Ascot is a very fair jumping track, a blunder or two could be costly. Furthermore, I am not convinced that Doctor Parnassus would be happy going it alone under pressure. We can say he was outstayed by Indefatigable, but he still made a meal of dropping the non-staying favourite at Pontefract and he has looked iffy on previous outings. The weight is good but experience is better.
Twilight Twist’s Cheltenham form is the best on offer, especially seeing as he was stopped in his tracks on multiple occasions at vital stages of the race. If this develops into a sprint, he has the best chance IMO. However, he has less scope for improvement than Irish Hill and while Alan King’s aren’t running abysmally, they’re not finding the winners’ enclosure either which does temper enthusiasm.
Prospects list probably stays the same (not that it has any meaning) but while an intriguing affair, maybe not a race for strong opinions.
If the strong prospect doesn’t win, Sam’s selection will pick up the pieces!
Warwick – 23rd January – Preview
Held in all but two of the past seventeen years, a juvenile hurdle has been held on this Warwick card. Though never having conditions beyond that of a Class 4, or even a maiden at times, it has still been a contest of reasonable standing. Hawk High and Don Bersy, winners in 2014 and 2017, followed up in the Fred Winter and Victor Ludorum respectively while 2009 scorer Trenchant took the Dovecote and finished fifth in the Triumph before becoming a solid Grade 2 performer. The six horses who started at evens and below all obliged, and while there are some interesting flat and bumper recruits, all eyes will be on the Finale Hurdle runner-up, Saint Segal. A mostly flat, sharp and left-handed circuit, Warwick’s winning DIs of 1.29 median, 1.50 mean are on the higher side of average. However, for this particular contest, the figures drop to 1.00 and 1.27; 0.26 lower than the beaten participants. Nevertheless, this is largely due to the typically wintery conditions which are unlikely to prevail this weekend. Newcomers have a record against experienced runners which is comparable to other racecourses, although previous winners are at a discernible advantage in this contest, enjoying a 40% strike rate. Seven are set to face the starter, but none of them are confirmed front runners. The going was most recently described as good to soft, and with no rain anticipated in the meantime, this might not be the most searching stamina test.Saint Segal bg Jane Williams j2-1-1 (126) 118 128
Saint des Saints (Ballingarry){9}(0.71) 1/0 Bal Celtique 3rd Prix Predicateur (L,57.0), Auteuil 2016
The only winning hurdler in the contest, Saint Segal is very much the ‘class act’ on account of his finishing runner-up in the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle at Chepstow last month on only his second racecourse appearance. Those unraced prior making their debuts in juvenile hurdles have a first time strike rate of just 2.25%. Nevertheless, prior to his Bangor outing, the figures for those trained by the Williams’s at George Nympton (including Me Voici and Reve de Sivola) is a slightly more respectable 4.08%, and for French breds, 4.35%. The latter is especially pertinent for Saint Segal as he is bred along traditional lines for the discipline. Costing €51,000 as a two-year-old, his sire, Saint des Saints, has a winner to runner rate of 32.43% which includes the likes of Monmiral, Le Rocher and Fusil Raffles. Dam Bal Celtique finished third in a listed handicap at Auteuil and has already produced a pattern placed filly in Celtic Girl. Introduced at Bangor back in November, Saint Segal was sent off a fairly steady 3/1 favourite. Tracking the leader, he was shaken up to challenge three furlongs out before going into the lead under a drive a furlong from home; after which he was pushed out on the run-in to win by three cosy lengths. Slightly novicey over the first couple of hurdles, Saint Segal settled into a sound enough rhythm and while he clipped a few towards the end, there can be no real dissatisfaction with his jumping. The pace was not the quickest, but the time was still quite reasonable. Though the form is not completely without substance, the runner-up failed to justify favouritism at Leicester next time and the third quite likely ran below his best. Notwithstanding, Saint Segal’s career began on a solid foundation and the sharp step up in class was not seen as unrealistic given that he started the 13/2 fifth favourite. Held up in midfield, Saint Segal was slightly big at the first, but otherwise jumped soundly and made good headway to enter the straight in a prominent position. Alongside the winner jumping the penultimate, the pair both clipped and flattened the last (usual two out) without losing much momentum. Saint Segal wandered somewhat under pressure and had no answer to Porticello’s strong finish. Nevertheless, he had done enough to hold off the third by three quarters of a length with the remainder over seven lengths behind. His place in the line-up fully justified, Saint Segal’s effort ranks within the top five seen in the British division to date and he shaped very much as though further is to come. The lack of obvious pace might be an issue, but it was a steady affair in which Saint Segal got off the mark at Bangor. Although the opposition he is not without ability or potential, most have questions to answer and the credentials of Saint Segal are solid. The yard, which likes to send good horses to Warwick, is in good form and with the talented Chester Williams taking off three pounds, it would not be absurd to suggest that Saint Segal has a good stone in hand of his rivals.Dragon’s Fire bg Alex Hales f8-1-0 (68) 76 j2-0-0 (-) 55 63
Equiano (Dubawi){7-f}(0.57) 3/1 Atlaal 1st Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (L,131), Kempton 1990
Alex Hales has a fairly modest winner to rate of 11.76% in the sphere and of the eight he trained himself on the flat, only Hiconic would score as a juvenile. Dragon’s Fire is the most accomplished of such horses on the flat, however, with his peak rating of 75 exceeding that of Hiconic’s by nearly twenty pounds. That mark came courtesy of a win on his third outing in a seven furlong, heavy ground Lingfield maiden back in May. Though he did well to find a gap in order to make his winning challenge, hindsight has shown that the form of that contest did not warrant such a mark. Consequently, without being disgraced in five subsequent outings, Dragon’s Fire was unable to get competitive in handicaps and his mark would drop ten pounds in the process. He also failed to see out his races on occasions and his being by Equiano, without a winner from eight juveniles, gave little cause for optimism over hurdles. The damline, on the other hand, is a little more encouraging as uncle Hatsnall won multiple points, cousins Eddiemaurice, Gale Green and Hint Of Grey were all winning jumpers, and the third dam produced good hurdler Atlaal as well as the dams of useful sorts Sadlers Wings and Head Waiter. None of this counted for a great deal in the market ahead of his hurdles bow at Kempton over Christmas, starting at 50/1, nor in the race itself. Held up in the rear, he made enough headway after halfway to still be in the pack approaching the turn for home, but was already weakening badly as they straightened up and finished tailed off. Apart from being big at the third, Dragon’s Fire did not jump badly, but he patently did not see out the trip. He was the subject of quite considerable support a fortnight ago at Ludlow, sent off at 16/1 having started the day at 100/1. However, while there was no complaint to be made about his jumping, he found himself outpaced along the back (having initially tracked the leaders in fourth) before fading in the straight to finish a tired fifty-five length eighth of ten. Dragon’s Fire is a fluent hurdler and conditions may be more in his favour here. However, his lack of stamina looks critical even in these circumstances.Hasty Parisian chg Milton Harris b2-0-1 (-) 87
Champs Elysees (Vinnie Roe){1-t}(3.00) 2/1 Paisley Park 1st Stayers’ Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
Milton Harris has enjoyed a fantastic season in the division with six juveniles amassing nine wins between them, giving him a winner to runner rate of 66.67%, and a strike rate of 32.14%. Hasty Parisian is set to be his first juvenile hurdler of the campaign to come from the bumper field. While such horses have a poor first time strike rate of 2.25%, Milton Harris did saddle Jacamar to make a winning jumps bow at Wincanton a couple of years ago. It was here that Hasty Parisian first saw the racecourse early last month, supported from a morning price of 9/2 to start the 3/1 favourite. Settled towards the rear of a steady moving bunch comprised of several flat breds, he was able to stay on during the closing stages without having the pace to get involved, finishing just under five lengths behind the winner in fourth. The subsequent form has not been strong, but Hasty Parisian did show improvement in a similar contest at Exeter on New Year’s Day. Fairly uneasy in the market, going from 11/2 to 7/1, he settled in midfield where the pace was very sedate once again. He made his challenge turning for home and despite wandering under pressure, was able to keep tabs on the leading pair before being outpaced in the closing stages; beaten two lengths into third with eight lengths between himself and the remainder. Bred very much for a career over jumps, sire Champs Elysees has yet to produce any star juveniles but his winner to runner rate is a very respectable 25.45%. The damline is inundated with jumping talent with his uncle, the top staying hurdler Paisley Park, being the most notable relative. Dam Va’vite won four times over hurdles, the first coming as a six-year-old, before producing Presenting Yeats and Mr Yeats; each multiple winners for Milton Harris. Alongside Paisley Park, Va’vite is a half-sister to four other winners in Present Value, Henry King, Mr Grey and Society Shares. Her uncle, Priests Leap, won consecutive runnings of the Theyestes Chase while her cousin, Unexpected Depth, was a useful staying handicap hurdler. Legionar is reportedly the star bumper horse in the yard, but Hasty Parisian has still run to a respectable level. He should make for an intriguing recruit, although his pedigree and the way he has shaped in his races suggest that this contest will probably be too sharp for him first time.Jaramillo bg Warren Greatrex f7-2-1 (85) 93
Oasis Dream (Montjeu){1-l}(0.75) 3/1 Global Thrill 1st 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2015
Rated 85 on the flat and fetching 100,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Jaramillo would be one of the more high-profile recruits to the division. Starting his career at two with Roger Varian, Jaramillo finished thirteen lengths behind Derby winner Adayar in a Nottingham maiden before placing second behind a long odds-on shot at Wolverhampton. His return in a ten furlong Leicester novice stakes saw him get off the mark; although given his very awkward head carriage, he won more through happenstance than desire. Nevertheless, the form turned out to be reasonable even if it did not quite justify the allotted mark of 87. Jarmillo’s next three outings saw his mark drop by eight pounds with a gelding operation and the application of cheekpieces doing little to fend off the dreaded squiggle. Following a three month layoff, he was able to cap his flat career with victory in a ten furlong Newcastle handicap. Held up towards the rear, he made comfortable headway in the straight and took the lead just inside the distance. While his head carriage was still very much one of a thinker, Jaramillo still kept to a straight line at least and was ultimately able to score by just over four lengths. His next trip was to Tattersalls where he became the second most expensive juvenile to leave Roger Varian after Duroble Man went for 130,000 guineas in 2013. Former residents of Carlburg Stables have a strong 33.33% winner to runner rate in the sphere, although their improvement rate is a modest 27.27% with none achieving an RPR exceeding 120. Warren Greatrex does get improvement from 55.00% of his flat recruits however, and his 23.33% winner to runner rate is solid. His record with juveniles at Warwick is zero wins, but eight places from eight runners while his first time strike rate with flat recruits rated 70 and above is a fair 14.29%. However, the yard is going through a decidedly lean patch at the moment and Jarmillo’s pedigree is not the most encouraging. While Montjeu is a healthy influence, Oasis Dream has a winner to runner rate of 8.33% in the sphere and uncle Guarino achieved little in four jumps outings. The third dam did produce a fair winner and the next dam is the matriarch of Ginistreli (4/2) Genuflex (4/4) and Good Prince (4/4). Going by class and connections, Jarmillo should make for a decent recruit to the sphere and he is known to go well fresh. However, there are enough doubts in his temperament, pedigree and current stable form to temper enthusiasm at this juncture.Lifesjustaflicker bg Sophie Leech j1-0-0 (-) – 0
Hot Streak (Nayef){14-c}(2.00) 1/0 Pitter Patter 6th Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed), Taunton 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/lifesjustaflicker
The fast and precocious Hot Streak would not be anybody’s first thought when it comes to prospective jumps stallions, and though Nayef was a fairly capable sire in the division, his record as a damsire has been quite modest to date. Nevertheless, Lifesjustaflicker, a 3,500 guineas yearling, is out of a fairly useful novice hurdler. Sophie Leech, who has a solid winner to runner rate in the division of 22.22%, and a clear round rate of 100% from fifty-nine runners, splits her runners between Britain and France. It was the latter country where Lifesjustaflicker made his racecourse debut just before Christmas, in a 3300m conditions race at Cagnes-sur-Mer. Sent off the 8.1 fifth favourite of nine under James Reveley, Lifesjustaflicker raced keenly in a prominent position before being restrained to track the leaders on the second circuit. He moved back into second turning for home but faded and was detached before they straightened up; calling it a day just after the penultimate flight. Lifesjustaflicker did not impress with his jumping as while never in danger of hitting one, he was given to hopping and being overly cautious. He did show up for a long way, but his hurdling technique needs to improve and even if the questions posed by his flat finish have been resolved, he needs to prove his class and stamina for this type of contest.Thunder Ahead bg Alan King f8-1-2 (78) 82 j1-0-0 (-) 78 84
Dark Angel (Oasis Dream){1-l}(1.00) 4/1 King In Waiting 2nd Prelude Hurdle (128), Market Rasen 2011
Since 2007, thirty-two horses have gone juvenile hurdling having started their careers with Harry Dunlop. Nine of those won during their initial campaigns giving a decent winner to runner rate of 28.13%. Peter Grimes and Our Phylli Vera each joined Alan King, with the former scoring first-time out at Bangor in 2009; incidentally, the same contest Saint Segal won this season. The latest to make the switch between the two yards was Thunder Ahead, who fetched 35,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. Making his racecourse debut at Linfield in early March, it took Thunder Ahead seven attempts to get off the mark. Though there were hints of temperament, he generally ran to a consistent level and he was able to break his duck on his penultimate flat outing which came in a Wolverhampton handicap off 74 over an extended twelve furlongs. Tracking the leaders from the outset, Thunder Ahead cruised into the lead on the turn out of the back and had kicked a few lengths clear on entering the straight. The rest of the field attempted to close, but Thunder Ahead had built up a decent cushion and had three quarters of a length in hand at the line. He was out eleven days later at Newbury, but while he travelled well into the straight, the heavy ground and additional furlong and a half proved too much and he faded to beat just one home. A switch to hurdles beckoned, although while he joined one of the strongest yards in the division, his pedigree is not ideal for the game. With his winner to runner rate of 15.69%, and improvement rate of 46.43%, Dark Angel just about has a passable profile for a sire. However, less can be said of Oasis Dream’s prowess as a damsire with corresponding figures of 8.33% and 33.33% respectively; and one must go back to the fourth dam before finding winning hurdlers in Lion On The Prowl and King in Waiting. His trainer and flat form were enough to send him off the 11/4 second favourite for his hurdling bow at Wetherby four weeks ago. However, he failed to justify the relative confidence. Racing keenly and held up towards the rear, he never made any real headway and finished a thirteen length fifth of seven. He was also novicey at every hurdle, giving the flights too much air, making poor shapes and being slow to get away. Furthermore, the sectionals were atrocious, and little positive can be said of the subsequent form coming out of the race. Thunder Ahead is entitled to improve for the experience and may be more at home around Warwick on good to soft. Nevertheless, he has plenty of questions to answer and the yard has been in better form.Winterwatch bg Harry Fry f6-2-3 (79) 86 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Lord Of England (Konigstiger){5-h}(1.00) 3/1 Winward Island 1st 3400m Steeple Chase, Quakenbrück 2003
Since 2004/05, Andrew Balding has supplied the juvenile hurdling division with 102 horses. Twenty of them would win during their initial campaigns although just 25% would actually improve. Harry Fry has a 20% winner to runner rate and the first former Balding horse to represent him over hurdles is set to be Winterwatch. Gelded and hooded ahead of his racecourse bow at Southwell in April, Winterwatch followed a one paced third with a more lively second in a twelve furlong Leicester maiden before getting off the mark at the third time of asking in a soft ground, twelve furlong maiden at Catterick in early July. Starting as second favourite, he settled in third of four and after sweeping into the lead on the turn for home, was kept up to his work to run out a commanding four length winner. The second and third have not been seen since and the beaten favourite patently underperformed. The form of his follow-up win can at least be substantiated by it coming in a handicap; in particular, one at Lingfield over thirteen furlongs in early August off 75. Racing keenly behind the leader, Winterwatch pulled himself to the front passing the stands where he would continue to test his rider’s strength. He turned for home with a three length lead and though he tied up close home, he was able to hold on by a neck at the line. After finishing midfield in some racing league contest, Winterwatch’s final flat outing came at Newbury in September. While still refusing to settle, he was kept towards the rear and was in the process of making a threatening challenge in the straight. However, he found himself caught in a pocket at the distance and was unable to fully recover from having to switch a furlong from home. While it could not be said that he should have won but for his traffic problems, it could be argued that he may have placed better than his respectable third. Withdrawn from the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Winterwatch moved to Harry Fry who said in a stable tour that schooling has been going well, although his hurdling introduction was a month overdue. Lord Of England has had three winning juveniles from six to date, while in France, his winner to runner rate with three-year-old jumpers is also an impressive 46.15%. National hunt horses do not appear immediately on the damline but the third dam has produced a winner and a placed horse in Germany while winning German chaser Wakita also appears at 4/2. There was plenty to like about Winterwatch’s profile in terms of form, breeding and connections ahead of his hurdles debut earlier this month, which was reflected in his starting the 16/5 second favourite. However, concerns over his inability to settle came immediately to the fore. Fighting for his head in the rear of the field, Winterwatch was spectacularly big over the first two flights before jinking violently to get rid of Sean Bowen at the first. The yard is in good form (even if it is yet to win with a flat sourced recruit in the sphere), and the jockey is content to get back on Winterwatch. However, any enthusiasm would be considerably outweighed by caution at this juncture.tl;dr
Saint Segal – Bred to be a French juvenile hurdler. Made winning debut at Bangor and proved his place in Finale Hurdle with a good second. Sets very clear form standard, open to further improvement, and should not be undone by conditions or complexion of race.Dragon’s Fire – Fair winner on the flat but questions over stamina have been compounded by evidence from two juvenile contests. Jumps well but will likely need a glacial tempo here.
Hasty Parisian – With strong yard and reasonable form in bumpers. Record of ex-NHF juveniles not strong but yard has saddled such a winner first time. Bred to make a very capable staying hurdler and shapes as though this may be too sharp.
Jaramillo – Much the best of these on flat and left Roger Varian for 100,000gns. Temperament and pedigree are not entirely solid and trainer’s recent form has been modest.
Lifesjustaflicker – Inexpensive, flat bred yearling who made debut in Cagnes-sur-Mer hurdles race last month. Showed up for long way but folded very tamely and not a fluent jumper. Trainer has decent record in sphere but much to prove here.
Thunder Ahead – Good class winner on flat for Harry Dunlop and despite patchy pedigree, not unfancied for hurdling debut with top yard at Wetherby last month. However, barely put a foot right in what appears to be a very poor race and stable not at its strongest.
Winterwatch – Fairly useful dual winner on flat for Andrew Balding and looked a compelling recruit to the sphere. However, looked an absolute eccentric on hurdling debut before bucking off his rider at the third.
Outstanding prospects
1. Saint Segal
Reasonable prospects
2. Hasty Parisian
Feasible prospects
3. Winterwatch
Moderate prospects
4. Jaramillo
5. Thunder Ahead
6. Lifesjustaflicker
7. Dragon’s Fire
Negligible prospects
.Quality as standard.
I’ve got Saint Segal 18lb clear.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"You can’t really oppose the favourite. But Winterwatch went off 2nd favourite in his only run over timber and could make up the forecast if completing this time.
Saint Segal looks a long way clear here,
So
1st
Saint Segal
2nd
Hasty Parisian
On the betting front Saint segal is ‘unbackable’ at the price
So
Hasty Parisian
Win W/o Saint segal.Jaramillo may improve too.
Another rock solid shout from Sam!
Wetherby – 27th January – Preview
Wetherby is set to host its sixth juvenile hurdle of the season. The likes of Porticello, Skycutter and Battle Angel have already won at the West Yorkshire venue, but while only a class four, the upcoming contest could be a useful affair. Traditionally a fairly reasonable event, the most accomplished juveniles to come out of previous editions were Devilment and Lil Rockerfeller. First and third in 2015, the former would finish second in the Anniversary Hurdle while the latter would win a good handicap at Sandown and go on to become one of the most popular hurdlers in training. Of this year’s participants, Graystone is arguably unlucky to not be a dual winner coming into the race, Message Personnel and Illico des Places are looking to supplement their wins in France, Piecederesistance won on the flat for Andre Fabre before finishing third on his hurdles debut in November, Johnny Boom won thrice in northern handicaps before a reasonable first run over jumps at Newcastle. The field is completed by newcomer Fleurman who possesses an intriguing profile and a Triumph Hurdle entry. Winning DIs at the course are just lower than average, and stamina demands at the venue can be particularly exacerbated on testing ground – as per the 0.75 median, 0.76 mean for this particular contest (although the ground this week should be firmer than usual). Wetherby can also be a tricky place to jump around for juveniles with its clear round rate of 94.55% being the fourth lowest in the country. Newcomers can also find hurdling around the venue quite challenging, although while their strike rate is 2.09% lower than that of experienced horses, the disparity is in the narrower half of racecourses. The going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places, with the possibility of some light rain overnight. Six are set to face the starter but with one confirmed frontrunner, and another couple who might want to make the running, the pace should be an honest one.Triumph Odds
Graystone 66/1 (55)
Message Personnel 66/1 (70)
Fleurman 80/1 (34)Graystone rgg Lucy Wadham f11-3-3 (75) 80 j4-1-2 (121) 117 125
Dark Angel (Distorted Humor){8-k}(3.00) No jumps relatives
Costing 50,000 guineas at the Craven Breeze-up at two-years-old, Graystone is a son of Dark Angel out of a half-sister to a Grade 1 winning American filly. Though precociously bred, Graystone’s first piece of flat form came when winning on his first outing at three in a seven-furlong Yarmouth handicap off 66. From there, he would mostly perform consistently and maintain steady improvement; reaching a new level when stepped up to ten furlongs. Failing by a head to win a soft ground Beverley handicap on his penultimate flat outing, he made amends on his final start in that sphere when winning his third race at Kempton off 71. Graystone had a tendency to race freely on the flat and while Dark Angel gets winning juveniles. his record is only fair. Furthermore, given the American pedigree, there are no jumpers on the damline until one goes back eleven dams and forward seven to find Beau Trempoli. Nevertheless, Lucy Wadham does very well with her juvenile hurdlers (thirteen winners from twenty-seven prior to Graystone) and with a BHA mark in the eighty-second percentile of flat rated recruits, Graystone went off the 5/1 second favourite for his hurdles bow in a useful looking Warwick contest in early November. Setting off in a prominent position, he skewed over the first and became lit up after getting close to the second. Errors persisted in his round, but while the winner had flown, he got the better of the third by three lengths. The form, which looked reasonable at the time, has since been given some major boosts. In This World has not been out since but his victim in an AQPS bumper, Fil Dor, has emerged as favourite for the Triumph after some emphatic performances. Meanwhile, third placed Interne de Sivola won at Cheltenham ahead of two subsequent winners. With this in mind, Graystone’s second appearance over hurdles, coming in an all aged maiden at Huntingdon, can only be regarded as disappointing; as per his starting price of 1/2. Held up in the rear of midfield, he was already shaken up six furlongs from home and while he made some headway into contention towards the end of the back, he had no extra to give and would merely plug on into third on the run-in. His jumping also left plenty to be desired and the form has been besmirched by the clear winner and the fourth. Nevertheless, a return to Warwick brought about a return to winning ways as Graystone, sent off an unsteady 11/4 second favourite, was able to register his first win over hurdles. Reverting to a front-running role while taking a keen grip, Graystone was always travelling well within himself and had all but one of his rivals toiling on entering the straight. He was still given to making careless mistakes but apart from clambering over the last, where he had the race in safe keeping, there was nothing alarming about his aptitude and he ran out a comfortable seven length winner. He set a clear standard on hurdles form on his most recent outing at Taunton towards the end of last month, but was deposed as favourite by the Paul Nicholls newcomer, Irish Hill. Still racing freely, Graystone went into a clear lead, posting his best round of jumping in the process. His rivals were closing on him as they entered the straight, but to the eye, they did not appear to be doing so at a sufficient rate to reign in the leader and Graystone went as low as 1.03 in-running. However, having hurdled well to the penultimate flight, it was here that he made his first serious error; getting in very close without lifting his legs. His second error coming at the last where he skewed in the air, landed steeply before stumbling to the ground. The consensus is that he would most likely have won the race, although along with the sharp decline in his jumping, it is also worth noting that the final furlong was completed over two seconds slower than the previous. Even accounting for the fact that the final furlong featured no hurdles, the comparative times set by the all-the-way winner in the fillies’ race later on the card suggested more equilibrium could have been expected. He was withdrawn on the evening of an intended engagement at Ascot last weekend, reportedly due to an infection, but is presumably healthy enough for this task. Graystone sets the standard on bare form, is racing on fair terms, represents a yard in fair form and is entitled to the according respect. It is also possible that he might get another uncontested lead. However, there is a chance this could be spoiled by either Illico des Places or Piecederesistance, and even if he does get his own way up front, Wetherby is a more demanding circuit than Warwick or Taunton for a front runner near the boundaries of his stamina.Illico des Places bg Tom Symonds j3-1-0 (-) 62 94 (FR119)
Jeu St Eloi (Anabaa Blue){6-e}(2.00) 0.5 Gatsby des Places 1st 3yo Hurdle, Royan 2019
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/illico-des-places
With his sole French start coming in a debutants contest at Châteaubriant, on a sleepy Sunday provincial meeting in May, Illico des Places had to wait a while for his profile page on the racing post site. Nevertheless, despite his rustic introduction to the sport, he showed the potential to be a useful sort. The field barely came out of a canter during the opening stages during which Illico des Places pulled extremely hard. Jumping himself into the lead at the fourth, he was still fairly headstrong but was not allowed to run away under Gaëtan Masure. Though he went through the top of the seventh, was flat footed at the eighth and got in close to the tenth, his jumping was neat overall and at times, quite taking. Holding a dozen length advantage turning into the straight, one might assume that there was another circuit to be completed given the lack of urgency displayed by the other riders. Nevertheless, this advantage was increased to eighteen lengths at the line which was achieved with the utmost ease. A race of its nature would take little winning, but the form has taken a reasonable shape. The second and the third each finished runner-up next time in similar company, Message Personnel won at Dieppe ahead of joining Dan Skelton, the last placed won a Compiegne handicap while the pulled up horse won a small race at Erbray. Former trainer Francois Nicolle has a strong record of producing talented juveniles with last season’s Quilixios and Monmiral enhancing the standards previously set by the likes of Botox Has, Allblak des Places and Coko Beach. Sire Jeu St Eloi has had just one British runner to date, but his first two crops in France have resulted in ten winners from thirty-two foals. Half-brother Gatsby des Places has won on three of his four completed starts while winners Kentucky Star (2/1), Double Double (3/1) and Happy Reunion (3/1) appear nearby on the damline. In Tom Symonds, he joins a trainer who has yet to win with any of his juveniles recruited from British flat trainers, despite six of them being rated 70 and above. However, his record with French recruits is a different story altogether as five of the six have been winners, including Don Bersy and Song For Someone. Though he was thrown into fairly shallow waters for his debut, Illico des Places did not get such a light introduction for his British career, starting in a Kempton introductory hurdle a fortnight ago. Going off the 10/3 second favourite, he was once again decidedly fresh, pulling himself into a clear lead only to be caught on the turn for home and weakening tamely thereafter. His round of hurdling could perhaps be described as exuberant, although apart from flattening the first, he was quick and neat overall. His latest hurdles outing came seventeen days ago at Ludlow where he appeared to have the credentials and conditions for a big run. However, having started the day at 3/1, he opened at 11/2 in the ring before drifting out to 13/2 before the off. Extraordinarily, he was dropped right out at the rear and still had a tremendous amount to do leaving the back. Though he made some headway late on, it was only to challenge for a remote third; a battle which he ceded to a much longer priced opponent. This strategy did little to quell his headstrong nature and his hurdling was rather tight at times. If more appropriate tactics are applied then a fair performance cannot be dismissed. However, it is not difficult to be cynical and expect a more involved showing in handicap company.Message Personnel bg Dan Skelton j3-1-0 (128) 117 122
Saint Des Saints (Muhtathir){4-l}(0.50) 2/1 Wonderful Charm 3rd Peterborough Chase (G2), Huntingdon 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/message-personnel-1
Prior to this campaign, Jean-Philippe Dubois had been the source of four juvenile hurdlers in Britain and Ireland, two of whom were winners, and another being last season’s useful Saint Sam – now an exciting novice chaser. His two exports to date this season were one time Triumph fancy, In This World, and Message Personnel; each of whom joined Dan Skelton. Making his debut in an ordinary contest at Chateauxbriant in the middle of May, Message Personnel brought up the rear in a steadily ran contest and was rather caught flat footed when the tempo increased on the second circuit. The winner, Illico des Places, was long gone by the time he reached the straight and while ground was made on the runner-up, Message Personnel was unable to get the better of his third placed stablemate. Nevertheless, he jumped well apart from getting slightly close to a couple and he was able to make amends next time in a slightly more valuable event at Dieppe on the first of July. Racing again in the rear but keeping tabs on the leaders, Message Personnel travelled well and made smooth headway on the turn for home. He was within a couple of lengths of the leaders at the penultimate hurdle where his task was made easier by the fall of the favourite who in turn, hampered the second favourite. Notwithstanding, he ran on well to beat what was left, quickening on the run-in to emerge the three-and-a-half length winner. Given the incident at two out, it is difficult to get a good grasp of the form but there were two previous winners involved at the time and the runner-up has gone on to become a fairly useful handicapper. Dan Skelton has a strong record in the sphere with a winner to runner rate of 38.37% contributed to by the likes of Allmankind, Bedrock and Nube Negra. Saint des Saints is more given to producing chasing types, but his record with juveniles is still very strong with 32.43% of his British and Irish juveniles being winners including Monmiral, Djakadam and Fusil Raffles. Classy chaser Wonderful Charm (2/1) would be the most esteemed of the relatives on the nearby damline, but his dam and third dam were each able to show good form at three and four years old and Muhtathir’s broodmares have a 30% winner runner rate in the sphere. Message Personnel made his British debut at Cheltenham nearly seven weeks ago. He had been vying for favouritism during the morning before ultimately starting the 10/3 second favourite. Held up in midfield off a steady tempo, Message Personnel did not post an assured round of jumping. Clipping the top of the first, he was steady at the second, got in very close to the third, big over the fourth, close again at the fifth and skewed over two out. He was also outpaced when the race developed at the bottom of the hill and having found a gear on the approach the last, his being carried left in mid-air at the flight cost him a few strides and he would merely plug on for ten length fifth. The form has worked out quite well, the second and third each winning next time, and his performance would leave him with little to find here. The likely honest pace should suit him much better and if he can jump more like he had done in France, he ought to improve a fair amount on his Cheltenham showing. The Skelton yard has had a winner during each of its four race days and its strike rate with juveniles at Wetherby stands at 42.86%; including its sole runner in this contest, Solo Saxophone, who won the race in 2018. Message Personnel is perhaps more a longer-term prospect, but the stable’s record at Wetherby is very encouraging and the anticipated improvement on his Cheltenham effort would put him right in the mix.Fleurman grg Olly Murphy f7-2-1 (85) 91
Mastercraftsman (Montjeu){11-a}(1.09) 3/1 Ravenswood 1st 2m6f Handicap Hurdle (128), Ayr 2002
Ralph Beckett has supplied fifteen winning juvenile hurdlers from fifty-five since 2004/05, although the winner to runner rate of 27.27% does overshadow the improvement rate of just 25%. The sales saw two of his fetch six figures for the first time. Zinc White has work to do if he is to justify his £310,000 outlay at Goffs London, although this does take some pressure off Fleurman, who fetched 130,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Gelded before making his debut at Kempton in December 2020, where he was patently green, Fleurman beat just one rival home in novice stakes during the spring at Epsom and Windsor. Nevertheless, stepped up to a mile and four on good to soft ground, Fleurman showed marked improvement in a Salisbury handicap off a mark of 64. Racing in third, some way behind the front two, Fleurman found himself outpaced as the pack engulfed the tearaways half a mile from home. Nevertheless, he stayed on well to lead inside the final furlong to win by a length, and two and a quarter. He was next seen a month later in a handicap over the St. Leger distance at Doncaster. He once again found himself outpaced on the turn for home, but made a strong looking challenge at the distance and while ultimately coming off second best in a messy battle, he lost little esteem in defeat with the pair nearly five lengths clear of the third. A return to Salisbury in July saw a return to winning ways in another fourteen furlong handicap, this time off 73. Tracking the leader from an easy gallop, Fleurman eased to the front three furlongs for home and was not for catching as he ran on powerfully for an emphatic eleven length success. Margins of such nature would generally be viewed with scepticism, although the runner-up has maintained his form and the third was a winner next time out. Fleurman was unable to sustain his progress on his final outing; a class 2 handicap at York off 85. Notwithstanding, he was far from disgraced in his fifth placed finish having found himself outpaced before plugging on in the closing stages. After Tattersalls, he joined an Olly Murphy with a healthy winner to runner rate of 28.57%, and given the general quality of his flat recruits, a respectable 52.38% improvement rate. Fleurman’s mark of 85 is the highest brought from the flat by a Warren Chase juvenile hurdler, and there is further encouragement in the pedigree. The late Mastercraftsman is one of the most prolific sires of winning juveniles, counting twenty three since his first crop in 2014/15 including Mister Blueyes and Wolf Of Windlesham. Montjeu is a leading sire and grandsire and while he is not quite at the same level as a damsire, his broodmares still have a solid winner to runner rate of 20.90%. Though a nephew of Cheveley Park Stakes winner Millisle, there is still jumps ability on the damline. Uncle Love Marmalade placed over hurdles as a juvenile, the third dam produced three winning jumpers in Ravenswood, Soubriquet and Kris Green, while the fourth dam produced champion national hunt sire Old Vic. With a rating in the 95th percentile, assured stamina, good attitude, useful pedigree and a very capable trainer, Fleurman has plenty going for him in his profile. This is a tough contest first time, but he does receive weight from the principals, and if he jumps well first time out (Olly Murphy has a 100% clear round rate from twenty-eight newcomers) then he comes into the race with a very live chance.Johnny Boom chg Brian Ellison f11-3-2 (69) 75 j1-0-0 (-) 89 96
New Bay (Invincible Spirit){11}(1.77) 2/1 District Attorney 2nd 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (84), Sedgefield 2014
While a BHA mark of 69 is perfectly adequate for juvenile hurdling, Johnny Boom has the most to find here in terms of pure ratings. Notwithstanding, after a low-key start, he developed a solid profile on the flat for Richard Fahey. His career started in mid-January with four runs at Southwell coming in the space of a month. He was gelded after the third outing and ran a fair race to finish midfield off 51 on his handicap debut. Given a two-month break, he reached the frame in a mile handicap at Redcar and a step up to ten furlongs saw him readily get off the mark at Beverley in June. Johnny Boom handily defied a six pound penalty in a similar contest at Yarmouth and while he had excuses when well beaten at Beverley, resumed winning ways at Pontefract in early August off 62; pulling out more to fend off a fast finisher. Though green at the start of his career, Johnny Boom matured a fair deal over the summer months and had also shown versatility insofar as conditions are concerned with wins on good to firm and soft. His last outing for Richard Fahey came at Newcastle in September where he made considerable ground in the straight, and after a three-way battle in the final half-furlong, was denied by a bob of the head. Those who leave Richard Fahey have a solid 20.83% winner to runner rate which increases to 33.33% for the juveniles joining Brian Ellison. Fetching 38,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Johnny Boom became the most expensive of those making the short trip from Musley Bank to Norton. His pedigree is not overly compelling insofar as jumping is concerned. He represents the first crop of New Bay who has yet to have a winner in Britain or France, and though from the family of Martaline and Allmankind, his being a Dubawi relative of Oasis Dream standing at 1.62m is not the most attractive profile. The nearby damline is bereft of winning jumpers, with the closest being Beyond Conceit at 4/2. Johnny Boom’s hurdling debut came in a warm introductory juvenile at a snowy Newcastle in late November. The shortest priced of the newcomers at 8/1, he raced keenly in the rear of the field before pulling himself into a more prominent position half-way. His jumping was decent to begin with, but he rather lost his confidence after being steady and close at the fifth. Though with the pack turning for home, he found himself outpaced at the distance before trailing home a twenty-one length last of six. He had a spin on the flat at Southwell just over a fortnight ago and while his finishing an eight-length last would be respectable were it a pipe opener, he was backed into 5/2 favouritism having started the day at 9/2. Johnny Boom is entitled to step up on his Newcastle outing and the yard does have a 16.67% strike rate with juveniles at Wetherby. However, he still has a fair amount to find in this company and the stable has been in stronger spells of form.Piecederesistance bg Micky Hammond f4-1-3 (40.0/88) 90 j1-0-1 (-) 88 85
Gleneagles (Footstepsinthesand){3-n}(0.66) 2/1 Derivative 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (111), Wincanton 2003
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/piecederesistance
The Prix As d’Atout is a two-year-old newcomers race held in September at Saint-Cloud. The legendary handler Andre Fabre won the race in 2016 with Trais Fluors who would finish second in the Prix Jean Prat the following year. Andre Fabre also won the race in 2018 with Influencer who, while not top class, was able to pick up a race at Longchamp before being sent to Dubai. Andre Fabre then won his third renewal in five years when, carrying the colours of Michael Tabor, Piecederesistance justified 2.9 favouritism to score by a cosy length and a quarter. Classic aspirations would abound, but such dreams were short lived as he failed to reward odds-on backers in a Compiegne conditions race the following month. Piecederesistance was seen twice during the Spring of 2021 and while not showing poor form when finishing third at Fontainebleau and Nancy, his headstrong nature was such that after a gelding operation, connections opted to let him go for €33,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale. There he joined Micky Hammond whose winner to runner rate is a fairly standard 19.48%, although none of the previous six sourced from the continent would win in the sphere. Second season jumps sire Gleneagles has had a couple of winning juveniles from twelve, although just one from six maintained their flat form over hurdles. The damline is more substantial as the second dam has produced four winning jumpers, headed by Derivative, with the third dam having three winners to her name including Legal Beagle. Boasting a decent enough pedigree and the strongest flat form by a considerable margin, Piecederesistance was well fancied to make a winning hurdles debut at Sedgefield in early November, backed in to 10/11 from a morning 6/4. He led the field from the outset and although he clipped the first three and pulled tremendously hard throughout, he approached the third last appearing to have the race at his mercy; trading as low as 1.32 in-running. However, he did not get high at the flight and scrambled on landing, pecking the ground with his left bum cheek. This cost him two places and considerable momentum, and though he rallied to get back within striking distance entering the straight, he had run his race after jumping two out and with a tired jump at the last, ultimately finished a sixteen length third. While it is quite likely he would have won but for his calamitous error, a horse of his conspicuous ability should have been able to win such a weak contest without mishap. Missing an engagement at Wetherby over Christmas with hives, Piecederesistance’s return comes in a much stronger contest. There are races to be won with this talented animal, but there are considerable questions to answer regarding his temperament and he will likely find his feet with a handicap mark once he has sufficiently matured.tl;dr
Graystone – Fairly useful on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise with a win at Warwick. Looked poised to double tally when falling at last at Taunton but was probably tired at the time. Has the strongest form, yard in fair nick and fairly weighted, but possibly vulnerable on this track.Illico des Places – Looked promising when making winning debut in French provinces where he had Message Personnel behind. Ran too freely for own good at Kempton but subject to bizarre ride at Ludlow where he was dropped out but still pulled hard. Cynicism aside, has questions to answer.
Message Personnel – Improved from first to second outing to win a fair race at Dieppe. Nicely bred though potentially more a chasing type. Race not run to suit on British debut at Cheltenham but will likely have learned plenty and represents yard with fine record at Wetherby.
Fleurman – Sole newcomer in the field. Dual winner for Ralph Beckett and brings mark of 85. Compelling pedigree, assured stamina and good attitude. Gets weight and could go very well in likely event he jumps first time out.
Johnny Boom – Lowest rated on flat but still won three times in sphere, showing versatility and developing a decent attitude. Not the most obvious pedigree and outpaced on hurdling debut at Newcastle. Well backed but finished last on recent spin on the flat.
Piecederesistance – One time classic hopeful for Andre Fabre but while form after winning debut was not bad, his refusal to settle saw him sold for €33,000. Reasonable pedigree and while still pulling hard, looked likely to win weak Sedgefield contest on hurdling debut but for serious error three out. Has ability but whether he can apply seem looks questionable in this company.Strong prospects
1. Message Personnel
2. Fleurman
Reasonable prospects
3. Graystone
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Illico des Places
5. Piecederesistance
6. Johnny Boom
Negligible prospects
.Quality.
I still rate that Cheltenham form, Yorksea and Galah have both won since and I have to be with Message Personnel.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"This is a quality race.
Fleurman will be a good prospect once this race is under the belt, likely will need the run. Graystone if recovered to go well too.
No strong stance from me but Illico des Places can improve again and we’re my pin to be aimed it would fall there.
One to watch and a tricky one to call.
Great write up as usual and grateful thanks.
On second thoughts
Illico Des Places
Has hidden talents and with just five standing ground the each way is attractive.
Despite that he is behind graystone and message personnel in the pecking order so will have to put a foot or two forward this timeProbably underestimated Graystone although he was helped by the breather before home, PDR’s withdrawal and IdP not pressing him. Fleurman never looked happy after his mistake at the first and Message Personnel didn’t have any excuses and looks a longer term project as per previous suspicions.
Regarding Saturday, as exciting as the Cheltenham race looks, I will be going to Doncaster tomorrow so while I will endeavour to get a preview done for the race, there is a small chance that it may be delayed or worse…
The recent proliferation of pattern class national hunt races for fillies and mares has not overlooked the juvenile hurdling division. Doncaster has often close to the forefront of such developments in this regard. When the mares programme was expanded during the 2007/08 season, Doncaster would host the first Grade Two over two miles at its Great Yorkshire Chase meeting. As well as hosting the second oldest extant juvenile contest restricted to fillies, its maiden during December 2019 saw the introduction of the second fillies listed contest after Aintree; preceding the handicap at Cheltenham’s April meeting by a few months. Entering its fourth year, this race has not yet established itself as a highlight of the racing calendar, but it has been developing from strength to strength. Last season saw the first participants at the Cheltenham festival, albeit with the first two, Her Indoors and Talking About You, finishing down the field in the Fred Winter and Triumph Hurdle respectively. This year’s edition looks to be of a comparable standard and is essentially a repeat of the Aintree contest early last month with the first, third and fourth (all Irish trained) reopposing. Though no filly has landed the double, Aintree’s race has been responsible for all three winners of this contest, although French import La Renommee and recent course winner Galah should add another dimension to proceedings. A mostly flat, left-handed galloping venue, the average winning DIs at Doncaster 1.12 median, 1.34 mean, are just slightly lower than average. This would be in keeping of the good drainage at the South Yorkshire venue as supported by the 90.02% completion rate. The clear round rate of 97.03% is also a fair one although hurdling debutants can find the circuit trickier than usual. Just the one likely front runner is set to face the starter. Her having previously done so at a measured tempo suggests a similar pace scenario here. The going is described as good, good to soft in places. In lieu of any rain, selective watering is scheduled although the anticipated breeze will probably mitigate any real softening of the turf.
Triumph Odds
White Pepper 33/1 (38)
Sea Sessions 50/1 (60)
La Renommee 66/1 (75)
Six Feet Apart 66/1 (75)Sea Sessions bf Ross O’Sullivan f8-1-3 (66) 73 j3-1-2 (-) 114 117
Territories (Daylami){16-e}(1.40) 2/1 Pigeon Island 1st Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2008
Trained by Ross O’Sullivan from the outset, Sea Sessions finished no closer than five lengths to the winner during her first four outings. A drop into claiming company saw her finish second at Fairyhouse in late May, before going one better at the same venue in early July; whereafter she was subject to a friendly claim of €15,000. Though contested on soft then good ground, both efforts came over ten furlongs with comparable form shown on each outing. She appeared to be crying out for a sterner stamina test and while beaten into fourth at Navan, had no issues with the half-mile increase in trip. Her final flat start came when second at Killarney over eleven furlongs off 64 in early October, making her hurdles debut at Punchestown ten days later. From the first crop of classy miler Territories, her sire’s being by Invincible Spirit and standing at just 15.3½hh is not conducive to a productive jumps career. Nevertheless, along with being half-sister to winning handicapper Tomorrow’s Angel, the dam is a full-sister to Pigeon Island, and half-sister to other winning jumpers Dalmo and On Alert. Sea Sessions debut came in a fair contest featuring three previous winners, but she still attracted support in the market; starting at 11/2 having been 10/1 earlier in the day. Keen early and held up towards the rear, Sea Sessions had to jump over a fallen rival after the first, but apart from getting tight at the fifth and skewing over the penultimate flight, put in a decent round. In midfield but still some way off the pace leaving the back, Sea Sessions was in touch turning for home and finished best of all to grab second and get to within half a length of the winner on the run-in. Her next appearance came at the end of the month in a five runner contest at Down Royal. She had actually backed into 5/4 joint favouritism with Fil Dor, although while she was the only runner to attempt to follow the winner three furlongs from home, her pursuit was a vain one to the tune of sixteen lengths. Nevertheless, she did hold on for second from subsequent dual scorer Inca Prince, and her round of jumping was, save for a couple of minor errors, sound once again. Sea Sessions was able to gain her first win over hurdles at in the listed fillies’ contest at Aintree early last month where she was started joint fourth in the betting at 8/1. Held on bottomless ground at a sedate gallop, Sea Sessions raced quite keenly in midfield. Though not showing explosive acceleration, she found herself a couple of lengths behind the lead at the last where she made her only real mistake of the race. The race to the line was conducted in slow motion and though wandering under pressure, settled the race when getting her head in front at the half-furlong marker. While this performance was respectable from a form and jumping perspective, the sectionals paint the contest in a very poor light and the race would likely have little bearing on future events save for those held in similar conditions. Notwithstanding, the overall profile of Sea Sessions is a fair one and though very much at ease on a ploughed field, she also has good ground form on both codes and should not be readily dismissed as a plodder.Cherokee Dance bbf Ian Williams f11-1-6 (70) 75
Honor Code (Cherokee Run){9-f}(3.00) 5/3 Tom Mix 2nd Prix Count Schomberg (L,55.0), Auteuil 2016
Starting her career with David Simcock, for whom she managed a Newcastle second from four outings, Cherokee Dance missed a couple of engagements before joining Ian Williams for 11,000 guineas at the tattersalls July Sale. She found only one too good on her first run for her new trainer over a mile and a half at Newcastle in September. Though disappointing on her first turf outing next time, she followed a close up finish at Kempton by breaking her duck at Wolverhampton in mid-December. Racing off 63 and weak in the market, drifting from a morning 10/1 to 28/1, Cherokee Dance tracked the leaders and kicked on turning for home to win by two and a quarter lengths twice. She has since been kept busy, finishing a creditable second in three handicaps without any excuses or vices. The American bred Cherokee Dance is from the second crop of Honor Code. Of the eleven stallion sons of A.P. Indy to try with juvenile hurdlers, only three have produced winners to date. The damline is bereft of jumpers until Tom Mix at 5/3, although Cherokee Run is the broodmare sire of winning juvenile Unanimite. Ian Williams has a fair winner to runner rate in the division of 19.35%, which increases to 37.50% when isolating fillies. However, his first time strike rate is just 4.08% with British flat recruits and none of his seven juveniles at Doncaster have finished in the frame. Furthermore, while her mark of 70 is respectable for the division, all but one of Cherokee Dance’s opponents have already attained higher ratings over hurdles.Galah bf Milton Harris f12-4-5 (72) 83 j3-1-2 (112) 101 109
Australia (Invincible Spirit){14-c}(0.68) 2/1 Counsel 4th Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2012
Ralph Beckett is amongst the more prolific suppliers of juvenile hurdlers to the division with fifty-five leaving Kimpton Down Stables to go hurdling since 2004/05. Fourteen of these have been winners, a healthy rate of 25.45%, and while just 25% improve for the switch the bulk of these do bring higher than average flat ratings. One such horse is Galah who finished her two-year-old season with a Thirsk nursery win to her name, and a rating of 81. Her second campaign saw her mark drop nine pounds and though she was not beaten far in four of her six outings in handicaps, a tendency to pull and hang right did compromise her efforts. Consequently, she changed hands for the relatively modest sum of 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Milton Harris team that has been flying this season. Her pedigree is an encouraging one for the game as Australia and Invincible Spirit have solid records as sire and damsire respectively, with their descendants often maintaining their flat form over hurdles. Uncle Counsel was a useful juvenile hurdler who finished fourth in a Summit Hurdle while Cinders and Ashes (3/2) and Minella Rocco (4/2) also appear on the damline. Galah’s hurdles bow came in a quite well contested introductory hurdle at Newcastle on the Fighting Fifth card. Starting at 14/1, she raced keenly while held up towards the rear of a tight and steady bunch. She held every chance at the distance but though she was quite readily left behind by the two experienced rivals, she fared best of the newcomers, finishing upwards of three lengths ahead of the remainder. Her round of jumping was lightly tarnished by slight, novicey errors but was satisfactory on balance with her only real mistake being an awkward jump three from home where her path was impeded by a rival. She was out again a fortnight later at Cheltenham where her starting price of 28/1 suggested she may be overfaced. Galah was still quite fresh racing in the rear, but the hood and tie (retained here) did see her travel more comfortably. She made a couple of positions going down the hill and turned into the straight with a fighting chance. The leader was able to get first run and after another not-bad round of hurdling, Galah’s steady jump at the last cost her a stride or two of momentum. Nevertheless, while the first and second were out of sight, the latter an easy winner at Fontwell on Boxing Day, she was able to plug on for an honest third ahead of better fancied rivals who, to some degree, met trouble in running. Galah’s latest appearance came in a fillies’ maiden at this venue four weeks ago where she set a clear standard and was accordingly sent off the even money favourite. Held up towards the rear off a modest tempo, Galah only had one behind turning for home where the leader stole a march. Nevertheless, she was able to make steady headway in the straight and after jumping into the lead at the last, edged out a length victory on the run-in. Given the way the race unfolded, the performance can not be said to match her efforts at Newcastle or Cheltenham. Nevertheless, she put in a clean round of jumping and the three previous course winners taking in this contest have amongst them win and a place. Galah does have a few pounds to find with a few of these, and she will not want to find herself caught flat footed. Nevertheless, she jumps well and knows her way around Doncaster so a respectable showing can be anticipated.La Renommee bf Richard Newland f1-0-0 j2-1-1 (-) 116 115
Doctor Dino (Ballingarry){3-d}(0.71) 1/0 Grande Cavale 1st 3400m 4yo Fillies Maiden Chase, Ecommoy 2011
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/la-renommee
Dr Richard Newland is a trainer whose record with juvenile hurdlers is a solid one. Since his first foray into the sphere in the 2009/10 season, his winner to runner rate stands at 40.91%, and he has yet to saddle a faller or unseat from eighty-two runs. The bulk of his recruits were bought at sales having raced on the flat in Britain or Ireland. However, three of his juveniles brought jumps experience from France with Katpoli winning during his first campaign, and Rose Sea Has and Rikoboy going on to land chases having previously ran over the larger obstacles in the country of their birth. Le Renommee, who privately changed hands for €120,000 during the Arqana Autumn sale, has yet to tackle fences in public but very much has the profile of a chaser. Initially with Ettienne Leenders, the source of winning juveniles Dandy Mag and Ronde de Nuit, La Renommee first saw the racecourse in a 2900m fillies’ maiden at Clairefontaine in August where she finished fifth of ten. Her hurdling debut came the following month at Les Sables-d’Olonne in a 3450m conditions hurdle held under floodlights. Making all, she raced quite keenly and jumped big and to her right in the early stages. With a gap between her rivals, she started getting in tight to her hurdles but was mostly fluent. The field closed on her turning for home, but La Renommee though she edged right under pressure, was always doing enough and passed the post two and a half lengths clear of the rest. There were only four finishers and the runner-up was moderate next time, although the third did score next time from a subsequent winner of a quite valuable contest. La Renommee’s second hurdles outing came in the Prix Pre Catelan at Auteuil. The 3500m contest is a conditions race for fillies with two or less hurdles runs to their names and its history is fairly ordinary. None of the four exports from the race would win as juveniles although Utopie des Bordes (2nd 2011) and Benie des Dieux (4th 2014) would eventually be useful sorts long term. Ahead of only one in the market, starting at 13/1, La Renommee was keen once again while held up in the rear, but was much neater in her jumping. Though the pace was steady, she found herself rather detached on the turn for home. Though she made considerable ground to eventually finish second by a short neck, her case was helped when the favourite fell at the last, and the new leader did everything in her power to throw the race away in a slow motion finish. Flattered to finish so close to the winner, she is better measured against the third, a neck behind, who had previously won an ordinary Toulouse contest, and was well beaten when next seen at Auteuil. The form is ordinary and the sectionals were slower across the board when compared to the colts and geldings division of the contest. Le Renommee is capable of being competitive in ordinary company during the coming months, but she can be viewed more favourably as a chasing prospect. Doctor Dino does have a strong record with juvenile hurdlers, but is capable of getting good chasers such as Le Bague au Roi; who also happens to be La Renommee’s cousin. Dam Grande Cavale won a four-year-old chase, uncle Walt was a decent staying chaser, auntie Midnight Theatre a winning pointer, while Clan Royal (3/1), Monty’s Pass (5/5) and Harbour Pilot (5/5) also appear on the damline. There are some relatives who came to hand earlier in Plaisir du Roy (2/1), Reine Angevine (2/2) and Roboratif (3/1), although on balance and racecourse evidence, Le Renommee is probably one for the longer term. Particularly as she has a three month absence to overcome and is unlikely to find this contest run to suit.Six Feet Apart bf Joseph Patrick O’Brien f2-0-1 (-) 79 j3-1-0 (-) 111 112
Mount Nelson (Arcano){8-c}(3.00) 2/1 Rainbow Peak 2nd 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (135), Aintree 2014
Not seeing the racecourse until September last year, Six Feet Apart made her debut in a nine furlong maiden at Punchestown. Lukewarm in the market at 12/1, she raced some way off the pace towards the rear and entered the straight with only three behind her. Doing her best work late on, she gained five places inside the final furlong to finish a seven and a half length third; splitting a pair of next time out winners. On the second of her two flat outings, she was beaten roughly the same distance when seventh at the Curragh, drifting in the market beforehand and fading inside the closing stages. A switch to hurdles came at the start of November and it is a career for which she is feasibly bred. Though prior to her jumps bow, Mount Nelson had only two winning juveniles from seventeen, although most were moderate on the flat and 45.45% of them were able to improve for the switch to hurdles. From the family of Celtic Swing (3/1), Six Feet Apart is a niece of winning hurdlers Rainbow Peak and Toss The Caber. Though uneasy during the morning of her introduction in a Fairyhouse maiden, Six Feet Apart was backed into 10/3 second favouritism in the ring. Racing prominently throughout, Six Feet Apart reached at the first and sixth but otherwise put up a fluent round of hurdling first time. Travelling best at the distance, she cleared the last with a length lead and was able to double that margin in the final strides. The form was no better than fair, with fourth placed Doctor Churchill gradually improving afterwards, but it was close enough to her Punchestown performance and she was professional in her execution. She accompanied the Irish contingent for her next outing in the listed event at Aintree where she was a fairly solid 6/1 third favourite. Tucked in behind the leaders, she was in close enough order approaching the penultimate flight. However, it was here she made her only real error as she flattened the hurdle having barely lifted her feet. She rallied to some degree but would fold after the last before finishing a six and a quarter length fourth. Three weeks later, Six Feet Apart took another step up in class when contesting the Grade Two at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. Unfancied at 33/1, she was held up in touch off a steady gallop. She jumped well and had yet to be asked a question when getting slightly squeezed out on landing at two out. Though not a serious impediment, it did cost her some momentum as the race was hotting up and she was unable to get back on terms, finishing a fifteen and a half length fifth of seven. Joseph O’Brien’s only visit to Doncaster as a trainer came when he saddled Lord Justice and Zig Zag to finish second and third in the 2016 Summit Hurdle. Six Feet Apart is still relatively unexposed and though she has ground to make up on a couple of rivals, these conditions ought to suit so a similar kind of effort is not unfeasible.Tiki Fire bf Neil King f7-0-3 (64) 70 j3-0-1 (92) 90 96
Awtaad (Big Shuffle){1-h}(1.46) 3/2 Dictum 1st 2m3f Novices’ Chase, Haydock 2007
Initially with Karl Burke, Tiki Fire placed twice as a two-year-old at Haydock and Newcastle and would largely hold her form on four outings this term without troubling the judge. Selling for 10,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale, she joined a Neil King yard with healthy winner to runner and improvement rates of 31.25% and 54.05% respectively. Sire Awtaad is another first crop sire, but while the Cape Cross line does get juveniles, Awtaad himself is not the tallest, was untried beyond a mile and his three runners to date have achieved little. Tiki Fire is quite tenuously related to Don Cossack (4/3) though the decent chaser Dictum is a slightly closer relative at 3/2. Making her hurdling debut in a fillies’ contest at Fakenham, Tiki Fire was quite weak in the market. Racing in a first time hood, she never left the rear of the field and made a couple of serious blunders before finishing a tailed off last. With such a lamentable effort along with the yard’s juveniles rarely firing first time, better could have been anticipated for her next outing which came at Warwick early last month. Starting at 100/1, Tiki Fire was once again waited with, hopping over the first and doing so again when landing atop the second. She was tight at the third but was better at the next and was in the process of making decent headway when briefly losing her footing on landing at the fifth. Though she picked up the bit soon enough, her leaving her hind legs in the sixth and stumbling badly cost her valuable ground and momentum. Tiki Fire did her best to get back within shouting distance but the race was gone by the time she entered the straight and after being slow away from two out, would merely plug on to finish fourth. Her effort was better than the bare result suggests and though easy in the market beforehand, she went into last month’s Doncaster contest with feasible prospects. Racing in midfield, Tiki Fire was some way off the pace turning for home, but was still able to get first run on the reopposing Galah. Her round of jumping was not as clean, as she clipped the first, was untidy at the second, tight at the fourth and was not smoothly away from three out. Headed by Galah approaching the last, without having caught the runaway leader, she could only plug on behind the front pair, four and a half lengths clear of the remainder. Tiki Fire was not disgraced on this occasion and posted her best performance to date over hurdles. However, there is no reason why she might reverse placing with Galah and the yard’s horses have not been running to form.White Pepper bf Gavin Cromwell f14-1-4 (82) 80 j4-2-1 (-) 123 121
Fast Company (Arcano){11-a}(1.67) 2/1 Jobekani 4th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2010
The most experienced of these on the flat and over hurdles, White Pepper also possesses the strongest form from either sphere. Her fourteen race flat career began in July 2020 and after finishing down the field in a trio of maidens, would twice reach the frame in Nursery handicaps at Down Royal and Gowran. A return to maiden company and a step up to ten furlongs last May saw her place at Sligo and Navan. However, it would not be until her thirteenth start that she would finally break her duck in a twelve furlong fillies’ maiden at Tramore in mid-August. Starting the day at 13/2 in a field comprising of three others rated on the cusp of 80, White Pepper went as low as 7/4 during the exchanges before settling at 3/1 come post time. Tracking the leader for most of the contest, she was asked to make her challenge on the turn for home and having edged to the front inside the final furlong, would cross the line two and a half lengths to the good. There is little to be said of the subsequent form, and her participation in the Group Three March Stakes at Goodwood in August proved to be as overambitious as the 33/1 starting price suggested as she trailed in last of five. Following a month off the track, her attentions would turn to hurdling. While distantly related to Old Vic at 5/1, there is little hurdling form on the damline. Nevertheless, her late sire Fast Company has quite the record with juvenile hurdlers with a winner to runner rate of 40.74%, and an improvement rate of 69.57%. Gavin Cromwell has a solid winner to runner rate of 20.31%, but is very able at getting improvement over hurdles at a rate of 60.61%. White Pepper was the subject of strong support for her hurdling bow at Gowran Park in early October, opening the 10/3 joint second favourite having been 12/1 during the morning. She settled well while tracking the leaders on the outer, but was not the most fluent first time as she was big at the first, skewed at the second and close at the fourth and sixth. She found herself outpaced on the turn for home and did herself no favours when reaching badly at two out and skewing at the last. Nevertheless, she was able to keep on to finish just over four lengths behind in fifth. White Pepper was less fancied next time at Galway three weeks later, with several compelling newcomers seeing her start at 6/1. Nevertheless, with cheekpieces reapplied, she raced with more purpose up front, seeing off the challenger for her lead after passing the stands and going several lengths clear along the back. The field closed in on the cross section, but after a good jump at the penultimate flight, was clear again entering the straight before passing the post thirteen lengths to the good. She was slightly big and untidy over the first two, but was neat for the remainder of the race and though ran at comparable tempos, the winning time was faster than those set by the older novices Choice Of Words and Colonel Mustard. This performance saw her start the 6/4 favourite for the listed race at Aintree, but while she was able to dictate and look to hold every chance in the straight, she was steady before hitting the last which saw her lose her footing along with any momentum. She would fight on to the half-furlong marker, but called it a day once passed, finishing a three and a half length third. Though slightly disappointing, she was far from disgraced in a race where nobody came out looking brilliant. Her chance for redemption came at Fairyhouse in a useful looking contest where her starting price of 4/1 was trumped by Britzka (third to Fil Dor on Boxing Day) and a seemingly improved reopposing Iberique du Seuil, and matched by Feigh (third to Fil Dor at Fairyhouse). Disputing the lead early on, White Pepper went to the front turning into the back. While slightly tight on occasions, her quick hurdling saw her pull a few lengths clear. Though challenged when rounding the home bend, she was still travelling well within herself at the distance and went into a two length lead on the run to the last which she would hold up to the line. White Pepper has the strongest form on offer without having to concede any weight, and she looks unlikely to be inconvenienced by either the conditions or the tactical make up of this contest.tl;dr
Sea Sessions – Fair winner on flat and niece of useful Pigeon Island. Rewarded for promising seconds to Bell Ex One and Fil Dor with win in listed Aintree contest ahead of three of these. Form perhaps unreliable as conditions were quite irregular but has respectable overall profile and is not a one dimensional plodder.Cherokee Dance – Has improved since joining Ian Williams and has ran with credit in busy month since breaking duck at Wolverhampton. Pedigree not most enticing and while yard has fair record with fillies in the division, first time strike rate not the strongest. Most rivals have already shown hurdling form that exceeds flat best.
Galah – Fairly useful four time winner for Ralph Beckett and has good pedigree for game. Confirmed promise of thirds at Newcastle and Cheltenham with course and distance win last month. Bit to find on form but jumps well and has course experience so can run respectably.
La Renommee – Winning hurdles debut under floodlights in France but flattered to finish so close at Auteuil in October where race fell apart. Joins good yard but bred to be a chaser over further and will likely find this too sharp first time.
Six Feet Apart – Late starter and lightly raced on flat. Feasibly bred for jumping and scored on hurdles bow at Fairyhouse in November. Folded late on at Aintree but while outclassed at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, was inconvenienced at crucial stage. Needs to improve but unexposed and can run with credit.
Tiki Fire – Fair maiden on flat for Karl Burke and no show on hurdling debut at Fakenham. Better at Warwick and continued improvement behind Galah last month. No reason why she might reverse placings however and stable not in flying form.
White Pepper – Most experienced of these on flat and hurdles and also most accomplished. Well backed on hurdling debut and did well to finish as close as she did given poor hurdling. Much better in cheekpieces on second outing when winning by thirteen lengths at Galway in good time. Slightly disappointing in mud at Aintree where final flight error cost her quite heavily, but back to best last time at Fairyhouse when comfortably accounting for Fred Winter types. Conditions and tactics unlikely to present any issues.
Strong prospects
1. White Pepper
Reasonable prospects
2. Sea Sessions
3. Galah
4. Six Feet Apart
Feasible prospects
5. La Renommee
Moderate/Negligible prospects
6. Tiki Fire
7. Cherokee DanceSorry to be the endorsement of death again, but White Pepper for me too.
Weighted to avenge the Aintree defeat and meant to have improved at Fairyhouse since.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"White pepper
Sea Sessions
Galah.
Should all be prominent here in any order but with preference for white pepper.
White Pepper showed good improvement back in Ireland and may well kick on now……I’m clearly a curse.
I have one at somewhat longer odds for tomorrow….
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"….while awaiting the great man to deliver, I’d like to suggest that, at the odds, Forever William is of interest.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s a shameful fact that I was about to say the form book doesn’t as yet fully endorse that assertion….and then the penny dropped.
I was even slower than usual there – very good, TTC.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“very good, TTC.”
Very generous ID. I feel guilty for infecting this highbrow thread with my nonsense / ‘humour’ tbf.
BUY THE SUN
Unfortunately, no essay today. Had to get up extra early and deal with the hell that is public transport on a Friday. The experience left me too tired to even look at the race, let alone write an essay.
It was “alright” at Donny yesterday but not worth the expense or effort. Would honestly have preferred to stay home and write an essay on what is an emphatically more intriguing race than yesterday’s. Lesson on time management learned. Also, note to self; remember to move back to the North East. Greater Manchester has the worst location for racing in the country and is now nothing more than a soulless satellite city for London.
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