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You don’t have to go back very far to confirm that the current handicapper has lost touch with reality. Ten years ago, a cheap convert off the flat, just like Doubly Clever, won two early season juvenile hurdles by 25 lengths, then a distance. He then switched stables and won the Grade 2 race at the Cheltenham November meeting, beating Afsoun and kasbah Bliss.
His name was Fair Along and AFTER the Cheltenham win, he was given a handicap mark of 131.
You don’t have to go back very far to confirm that the current handicapper has lost touch with reality. Ten years ago, a cheap convert off the flat, just like Doubly Clever, won two early season juvenile hurdles by 25 lengths, then a distance. He then switched stables and won the Grade 2 race at the Cheltenham November meeting, beating Afsoun and kasbah Bliss.
His name was Fair Along and AFTER the Cheltenham win, he was given a handicap mark of 131.
Indeed, one would have to be criminally insane to think that Doubly Clever is a superior animal to Fair Along. However, despite it only being ten years ago, we’re talking about a different era when it comes to three year olds taking on seasoned handicappers. Ten years ago, it was rare for juveniles to compete against older handicappers and even then the first all aged handicaps open to three year olds was the one at Warwick in the first week of December. What’s more, they only got a nine pound allowance. These days, they can enter such races in the summer and they’re getting eighteen pounds from the older horses.
If this is a conscious bias by the handicapper then one would imagine that those earning ratings in the summer must be at a disadvantage to those who get their mark in January/February onwards.
Great stuff BH – it all makes sense now
No problem :)
For a juvenile to win at Cheltenham on my speed figures, they would need to achieve a rating of 120+, so far Doubly Clever’s top figure is only 81.
Early on last season, the best French juvenile I rated was Bonito Du Berlais who put in 2 speed figures together of 122 & 123, and if you look at the winner of the Triumph hurdle Tiger Roll, his winning speed figure was 122.
The best RPR rating Bonito Du Berlais earned last season was 153, which equates to converted OR of 139, as AP rightly pointed out, giving a OR of 135 to Doubly Clever lies in the realms of fantasy.
Maybe the Irish Handicapper will prove us all wrong, somehow I don’t think so.
Doubly Clever has been given a hurdle handicap mark of 135, so he’ll certainly get into the Fred Winter if that’s the route they take. But if he proves capable of winning that, or any other handicap hurdle this season, off that mark, I’ll promise here and now to contribute a thousand pounds to the IJF.
I reckon 135 is at least a stone more than is justified by his form, and probaby more like a stone and a half too high. Mountainside being rated 129 is just as stupid and suggests the handicapper responsible for the juvenile hurdle division has totally lost the plot.
I agree Apracing.
Doubly Clever looks a similar horse to the older Sleeping City based on the times they ran to on the 22nd of August. Sleeping City was officially rated 105 there, adding the 19lb weight for age allowance would give Doubly Clever an official rating of 124. That would also depend greatly on whether both of the races were true pace races reflecting the real abilty levels.
What sort of a rating are you guys giving to Device ? Is he the best of the French this summer ?
Device is definitely the best juvenile hurdler I’ve seen in France so far this year and that’s reflected in a remarkably high official rating awarded to him by the French handicapper of 720. That’s equivalent to about 160 on the UK scale – and to put that into perspective Our Conor was only rated 161 after he’d won the Triumph. Last years winner Peace and Co is currently on 157.
Device runs tomorrow (Tuesday) in a Listed hurdle that opens the Auteuil card, and is very likely to win again as he faces five horsees he’s already beaten at least once.
Another win for Device, making all and jumping fluently, Reveley allowed challengers to get close two out before running away from them after the last to score by 7 lengths. His stable companion, Frodon, was just about in second when he fell at the last, but it made no difference to the result.
Device is definitely the best juvenile hurdler I’ve seen in France so far this year and that’s reflected in a remarkably high official rating awarded to him by the French handicapper of 720. That’s equivalent to about 160
France Galop multiply their ratings by a factor of 10, so a rating of 720 = 72.
Although Device has looked impressive in his races he has yet to put in a fast time.
01-Sep-15 Aut 18VSft 3yH 24K 71
07-Jun-15 Aut 17.5VSft 3yHL 42K 80
17-May-15 Aut 17.5VSft 3yHL 31K 74
26-Apr-15 Aut 15VSft 3yHL 24K 79Today at Auteuil he earned a speed figure of 73.
Auteuil (FR)
22-Sep-15
RACE WINNER DIST RATING
11:45 Device 2m2f 73
12:15 Buddy Banks 2m1½f 42
12:50 Corscia 2m2f 102
01:20 Vernal Bird 2m2½f 96
01:50 Black Kit 2m3½f 110
02:20 La Sulfureuse 2m1½f 78
02:55 Eclair Delarogerie 2m1½f 48
03:25 Blouspan 2m3½f 104Mike.
Sorry for absence. Have been out of sorts recently but the worst seems to be over. Can’t really do a proper preview for tomorrow’s race but have done pedigrees.
Pinkie Brown is interesting in that he represents the form of Paul Nicholl’s newcomer Romain de Senam and the Simon Munir owned Shakapon – that line coming in this race at Fontainebleau http://www.equidia.fr/play/live/course/2015-04-01/r2/c3
Runner up Romain de Senam went on to win a race at Enghien before making the switch and winner Shakapon went on to be runner up at Enghien before finishing down the field in an Auteuil listed race. Those behind Pinkie Brown haven’t exactly gone on to greatness but they have held fair form in the lower echelons. Pinkie Brown himself looked far from the finished article on his sole start and did make a few errors but the overall level of form is respectable in the context of this race.
Leoncavallo has been by far the best seen this season and his first Stratford win was given a boost last week as the runner up Paddys Runner enjoyed a bloodless success at Plumpton. The penalties incurred over his three wins have meant that this race is the only one he can run in. Cooper is also undefeated and barely broke sweat when comfortably beating solid yardstick Retro Valley at Sedgefield. The form of Duke Street‘s handicap win at Beverley is as good a piece as any brought from the flat this season and though he disappointed in the Melrose on his last start for Mark Johnson, his £46,000 transfer to Dr Richard Newland’s yard is an interesting one. Sikandar was bought out of Mick Halford’s for 40,000GNS as a dual purpose prospect and he collected a Doncaster handicap for good measure on his debut for Brian Ellison although he’s another who needs to put a disappointing run at York behind him. Cahill has been with Alan King since he began his racing career and although he has bits and pieces of form, it’s still a bit behind that shown by the aforementioned newcomers. No Rum hasn’t shown enough in three flat starts for Ralph Beckett to suggest he can figure here and was most tailed off on his sole run for his current yard last month.
Sikandar 3/1 Mistinguett 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1996 (3/2 Mistanoora, Rimsky, 2/2 Simarian, 4/3 Financial Reward)
Cahill 3/3 Grumeti 1st Anniversary Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2012 (3/3 Ellerslie Tom, 3/3 Distant Memories)
Leoncavallo 6/5 Fait le Jojo 1st Handicap Hurdle (132), Ascot 2002
Pinkie Brown .5 Fox Norton 1st Handicap Hurdle (140), Taunton 2015 (2/1 Bluedonix)
Duke Street .5 Act Of Kalanisi 4th Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (G1), Sandown 2012 (4/1 Tangaroa)
Cooper 3/1 Tomahawk 1st Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (122), Kempton 1993 (3/1 Bandelero, 5/5 Lord Jim)
No Rum 3/1 Alzaro 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Uttoxeter 1998Sires
Leoncavallo – Cape Cross (10) 37%
Sikandar – Medicean (1) 39%
Cahill – Lawman (2) 18%
Pinkie Brown – Gentlewave (1) 67%
Duke Street – Duke Of Marmalade (1) 13%
Cooper – Sir Percy 45%
No Rum – Alfred Nobel 0% (first runner)Leoncavallo goes to the top of the juveniles with a speed figure of 102, still sort of the magical figure of 120+ needed to win the Triumph hurdle.
Leoncavallo (IRE) 7/4F 102
Pinkie Brown (FR) 9/2 82
Duke Street (IRE) 6/1 79
Cooper 9/2 74
Cahill (IRE) 16/1 42
Sikandar (IRE) 7/2 29Market Rasen
26-Sep-15
01:40 Leoncavallo 2m½f 102
02:15 Cloonacool 2m½f 94
02:50 Oscar Rock 2m5½f 111
03:25 Forever My Friend 2m5½f 84
04:00 Viens Chercher 2m½f 93
04:35 Handsome Dan 2m2½f 50
05:10 Desertmore Hill 2m½f 36mike.
Leoncavallo is pretty smart, isn’t he? Certainly better than Goodbye Dancer, who was topping the charts this time last year.
It’ll take a very clued-up and able juvenile to beat him before the mud starts flying.
Leoncavallo hasn’t put a foot wrong yet and one would have to put him at least on a par with Unanimite who won the corresponding race last year. I doubt we’ll see him again before the mud starts flying with that burden he’ll be carrying now but it is definitely intriguing to see how far he can go. Certainly the best we’ve seen at this stage for a few seasons now.
Another rushed one I’m afraid as I’ve been stuck at work covering for the past I forget how long and it completely slipped my mind that there was a race today. Have a fair bit of catching up to do as well as two races in the next three days plus a family I haven’t seen in a while along with countless other chores.
Bangor plays host to a tidy little contest with four who’ve shown a degree of hurdles form along with a Donald McCain newcomer.
Paddys Runner was a maiden on the flat with a couple of placed efforts to his name and started favourite on his jumps debut at Stratford. On that occasion, he ran into a hot one in Leoncavallo and while nothing has since come out from those behind him, he did beat them by a wide margin. He returned to the flat in a competitive handicap at Chelmsford where he was below par but made no mistake back over hurdles last time at Plumpton putting twenty-nine lengths between himself and his weak opposition. Impulsive American had a fairly substantial career on the flat in France making nine visits to the track and earning a valeur of 29 which equates to an OR of 64. It was off this mark he made his UK/David Pipe/sans testicles debut in an apprentice handicap at Carlisle where he was too keen for his own good and ultimately cut little ice. Next time at Chepstow, he was much better behaved and ran all the way to the line and won by half a length. He was rather fancied on his hurdles debut at Perth just over a week ago but his reluctance to settle and his unfurnished jumping put a huge dent in his chance but he was starting to get the hang of things towards the end of the race in an effort not bereft of promise. Chic Name almost won a low grade claimer in his native France over hurdles but looked hopeless on his UK debut at Market Rasen. After a couple of months off the track, he put up a much better performance at Worcester back in cheekpieces when a clear second behind John Ferguson’s newcomer Hadfield (who may well have followed up at Perth with cleaner jumping). Our Kylie was always a hurdler in the mind of trainer Tony Coyle and was a pleasing second on her debut at Market Rasen behind the fairly solid Retro Valley. She was rather disappointing next time at Cartmel when fifteen lengths third behind a horse she’d previously beaten comprehensively although she was never travelling that day and did not seem to enjoy the track. Aussie Berry had five starts on the flat for Michael Bell with his best effort probably coming on debut when third in a Wetherby maiden. Since then, he somewhat regressed in two more maidens and ran no race on his handicap debut at Pontefract. He was slightly better last time at Lingfield in that he wasn’t tailed off and managed to beat one of his nine opponents home. He’s stayed with the same owner and makes his debut for Donald McCain who has won the last two runnings of this particular race.
Arbitrary 1-2-3*
1. Paddys Return
2. Chic Name
3. Our KylieChic Name 3/1 Vie De Reine 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1), Auteuil 2002 (3/2 Vino Griego, 4/1 Deep Care)
Our Kylie 6/2 Jurado Express 5th Swordlestown Cup Novice Chase (G1), Punchestown 2003 139 (5/3 Premier Portrait, Shesaportrait .5 Joan d’Arc)
Impulsive American 3/4 Slim Pearl 1st Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2006 (.5 Senna Da Silva)
Aussie Berry 4/2 Tissifer 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2001
Paddys Runner .5 Icy Reply 1st Mares Hurdle, Navan 2014Sires
Our Kylie – Jeremy (10)
Aussie Berry – Aussie Rules (3)
Chic Name – Nickname (2)
Paddys Runner – Sir Percy
Impulsive American – American PostToday’s maiden at Fontwell doesn’t provide a great deal from those with hurdles experience but there are three newcomers with form representing yards who can train juveniles.
Auld Fyffee has the most experience over hurdles and has been exposed as fair but no better than fair. She won a Wolverhampton claimer as a two year old but has fared a bit better over hurdles finishing within ten lengths of both Leoncavallo and Doubly Clever (albeit without remotely threatening). Her last visit to the track was in handicap company where the official mark of 94 was rather beyond her reach (now 97) and whilst she’s back in a more comfortable sphere, she’d be vulnerable to the stronger sorts from the flat. Jersey Bull had twenty one starts on the flat and probably shown his strongest form over sprint distances as a two year old, picking up a Ripon maiden along the way. Nevertheless, he maintained a fair level of form as a three year old at around a mile without winning again. He made his hurdles debut at the beginning of last month over today’s course and distance and despite his keenness and iffy jumping, he did finish a close enough second behind Mounatinside. Nevertheless, the two and three quarter length margin was most flattering as the winner was doing everything in his power to throw the race and again, his overall form is below that shown by some of the newcomers. Konnos Bay was beaten ninety-two lengths in three starts on the flat including two sellers and whatever infinitesimal chance he may have had on his jumps debut was blown after whipping at the start before jumping very slowly.
Oceane had four runs on the flat as a two year old for Keven Borgel culminating with a win in an amateur race at Marseille. Whilst the initial BHB rating of 84 looked a little harsh, there were a couple of subsequent 80 rated performers in behind in the aforementioned race. That BHB rating was vindicated on his UK debut at Salisbury where was less than a length behind St Leger winner Simple Verse and Melrose Handicap winner Polarisation. His latter two runs were not to the same level including a seventeen length third of eight last time at Newbury. However, he’s from the same source as one time decent King/McNeill juvenile Walkon and this better ground might see a resurgence in form so if he’s anywhere near his Salisbury form then he’ll take a world of beating. Darebin has had four starts on the flat so far, the strongest of which coming at Lingfield when beaten by a nose by dual subsequent winner Bishop’s Leap. He’s not been seen since beaten by sixteen lengths at Goodwood in July and has skipped a couple of hurdles entries in the meantime. He does represent Gary Moore who has a fine record at this track including with juveniles (has taken two of the last ten renewals of this race). Consortium is still a maiden after nine starts on the flat, eight for David Simcock, but has held his form nicely finishing in the first three five times and his OR of 65 is very fair. His sire, Teofilo, has made a very strong start with his hurdlers and after changing hands for 21,000 guineas, he joined Neil King who knows the time of day when it comes to juveniles (Lil Rockerfella being his strongest last term). Furthermore, his pedigree is inundated with national hunt horses including several who performed as juveniles. He has the profile of one potentially useful provided he can shake off his “nearly horse” tag. Albert Herring is a maiden after six flat starts, the highlight coming when third off 50 in a Chepstow handicap behind Duke Street. He was completely tailed off on his sole subsequent start off the same mark. Our Nipper hasn’t had a single start flat and turf and this homebred son of Grape Tree Road looks more a long term prospect with competent marathon runner Upham Atom being the closest winner in his pedigree. The yard did have a decent juvenile last season in the shape of Norse Legend.
Arbitrary 1-2-3*
1. Consortium
2. Oceane
3. Auld FyffeeKonnos Bay 3/2 Tiger Groom 2nd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2002 (1/1 Flying Phoenix 3/2 Rifawan 3/4 Notus de La Tour 3/2 Rayshan)
Jersey Bull 3/2 Mistinguett 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1996 (3/3 Mistanoora, Rimsky, 3/4 Simarian, 3/3 Financial Reward)
Consortium 4/2 Ikdam 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1989 (.5 Raktiman 4/2 Estacado 4/1 Gay George 4/3 Snowy Lane 3/3 Leanne 3/1 Franciscus)
Darebin 3/1 Dark’n Sharp 3rd Grand Annual (145), Cheltenham 2003
Albert Herring 2/3 Pafadas 1st Prix de Chambly (listed), Auteuil 2013
Our Nipper 7/3 Mr Moonraker 1st National Spirit Hurdle (Listed), Fontwell 1982 (2/1 Upham Atom)
Auld Fyffee 1/2 Aland Islands 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Doncaster 2012 (1/2 Champagne James, Rory O’Moore)
Oceane no jumps relativesSires
Consortium – Teofilo (5) 58%
Albert Herring – Tobougg (4) 30%
Oceane – Kentucky Dynamite (2) 100%
Jersey Bull – Clodovil (2) 27%
Konnos Bay – Phoenix Reach (1) 32%
Our Nipper – Grape Tree Road 25%
Auld Fyffee – Haatef 17%
Darebin – It’s Gino 0% (first runner)BH and Bobby what you guys think of the juvinile hurdle in Ireland last week that LAKE CHAMPLAIN won by 7L for Jessica Harrington
Any thoughts on the horses in the triumph hurdle betting who we not seen yet even see
JOHN F KENNEDY in market.Horse i am waiting for is FIXE LE CAPSorry darren, haven’t really had a chance to have a look at anything recently but if I form an opinion then you’ll know as soon as I know.
The first super exciting prospect makes his debut today at Chepstow in Adrien du Pont who was described by Anthony Bromley as “maybe the best of them (juveniles sent to Ditcheat)”. He had one win in France, an easy win at Enghien.
http://www.equidia.fr/play/live/course/2015-04-07/r1/c2
Runner up King’s Socks won his next race before twice posting respectable efforts behind leading French juvenile Device.
Sceau Royal doesn’t get a mention in OJA but does represent Alan King and did pick up a Bordeaux contest on his second start for Guillaume Macaire.
http://www.equidia.fr/play/live/course/2015-03-27/r2/c6
Runner up Rue Palatine went on to collect a small race at Dax and fifth placed Roman was beaten in a couple of claimers at the Paris tracks before finishing runner up at Dieppe.
Sky Lino is an unraced Martaline half brother to a couple of minor winners in France and looks much more a long term prospect.
Nosper was sold out of a claimer for €10,000 and his official flat rating equated to 68 but both the price tag and the rating look high.
Flat maiden Capatosta, who joined Charlie Mann for 16,000GNS, and Social Climber who sold for £15,000 after two runs in Ireland (the debut effort being quite respectable), are related to each other.
Layerthorpe is the best related in the race but hasn’t inherited a great deal of hurdling talent as evidenced by his two runs thus far.
Layerthorpe 2/1 I’m Supposin 4th Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1997
Adrien du Pont 5/3 Ashkazar 1st Kingwell Hurdle (G2), Wincanton 2009 (4/1 Shawiya,Shaihar 4/3 Staying Article)
Sky Lino 4/3 Marcus du Berlais 3rd Irish Grand National (134), Fairyhouse 2005 (4/3 Michel le Bon .5 Sky Royale)
Social Climber .5 The Crafty Butcher 145 4th Woodlands Park Novice Chase (G2), Naas 2015
Capatosta 3/3 The Crafty Butcher 4th Woodlands Park Novice Chase (G2), Naas 2015
Sceau Royal 6/3 Kalamalka 2nd Galway Plate (Listed, 9-12), Galway 1988
Nosper 3/1 Chiffonard 7th Juvenile Claimer, Auteuil 2006Sires
Adrien du Pont – Califet (5)
Sky Lino – Martaline (2)
Nosper – Whipper (2)
Sceau Royal – Doctor Dino (1)
Social Climber – Strategic Prince (1)
Layerthorpe – Vale Of York
Capatosta – Flashy Bull
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