Juvenile Hurdlers 2015/2016

[droffats]

Spot on again today and no I don’t back them so don’t think of you as a tipster just thoroughly enjoy reading your posts and how informative they are.
Keep up the good work

[Bachelors Hall]

Cheers droffats. I enjoy writing this, particularly as I’m working a dull stop-gap job for the time being so it helps to have something that keeps me somewhat sharp.

I note that there were only four entries originally for Friday’s race at Newton Abbot, making it the fourth of four that have had to be reopened. This clearly concerns me as a lower demand might spell less Juvenile Hurdles in seasons to come.

Ah well, here’s the review for the Market Rasen race.

Market Rasen 19th June – 2m148y Good

Market Rasen’s opening Juvenile hurdle of the season featured a winner, a French import and a 75 rated runner from the flat thus has to be considered the strongest of the three races so far. Nevertheless, the standard was not a strong one and half a second slower than the lowly opening Novices’ Handicap, this form is unlikely to carry much weight beyond the summer months.

Being a son of a Coronation Stakes winner, it wasn’t massively foreseeable that Mountainside would embark on a hurdles career so early in life but the hand was rather forced with his refusal to enter starting stalls and he wasn’t entirely straight forward as a two year old in any case. Elements of his errant resurfaced on his hurdling debut as his head bobbed around a fair bit as he ran around a fair bit. Losing ground in the middle of the back straight, he had to be cajoled in order to stay in contention but he responded quickly when asked a serious question turning in and swiftly moved into second. From then on, he kept closing on the tiring leader before passing him and coming clear on the flat. There is a suspicion however that his effort was sustained by the fact that he was chasing after the loose horse and it remains to be seen if he will stand up in a real battle. Overall, his jumping was adequate but could have been more polished, particularly at the first and last two flights. At this stage, he doesn’t look like a complete natural but there is plenty of scope for him to find enough improvement to win another one of these under a penalty. Dominada led from the start and was left clear after the third. His jumping, as on his debut, was still a mixed bag as he hit the third, took off too late at the fourth and was awkward at the sixth but the ones he did get right were done very nicely. He was tired when taking off late at the penultimate flight and though he put in a clean jump at the last, he was slow getting away and it would be fair to assume he didn’t see out this trip which was almost a furlong longer than the Uttoxeter race. Perhaps there’s another race in him over a shorter trip, or under a more restrained ride, before the division gets more competitive. Ace Of Marmalade had terrible form on the flat and didn’t shape with a great deal of promise at Hexham so his running on second here can only be seen as a career best. He made a couple of errors when unsighted and interfered with and an unforced error at the fourth but otherwise, jumped very cleanly. Clearly a better hurdler than a flat performer, it’s not hard to envisage him finishing placed in a weak contest but it would take a very poor race for him to claim one of his own. There was a break of six lengths to Fast Scat who is another who left her debut effort behind. She pulled early and was awkward at the second and fourth. She was jumped into at the fifth which she didn’t enjoy but otherwise, she jumped well before tiring in the straight. This was her twelve start under rules, she isn’t a stayer and is exposed as a low grade operator but she could run into a place in a weak enough contest. Apart from jumping into Fast Scat, Smugglers Lane didn’t cause a spectacle quite like he did at Uttoxeter and jumped OK in the main but never looked like getting competitive and was well beaten in the end. He’s since finished way down the field in a Bath handicap. Chic Name had three runs over hurdles in France but the form of those runs doesn’t amount to a lot and there wasn’t really any confidence in him in the market. He seemed somewhat perplexed by English hurdles steadying into a few of them. Chic Name, as in France, also jumped rather big at them suggesting if there’s any potential, then it might be over fences. He was being hard ridden from the back straight and ultimately, was beaten out of sight. There was nothing in this outing to suggest he’ll be competitive any time soon. Whisky Marmalade was no more than claiming class on the flat but didn’t stay in the race for long. She was a bit awkward at the second causing Andrew Tinkler to lose his right iron who couldn’t get it back in the short run to the third where another awkward jump (which wouldn’t have caused an unseat in and of itself) got rid of him. Whilst it was encouraging that she carried on loose with the field jumping all the hurdles in the process, she wasn’t exactly nimble at those either. As such, she can only be watched for the time being.

[Bachelors Hall]

I’ve also refined the leading sires and leading trainers lists so that all bumper performances have been eliminated leaving only Juvenile Hurdle runs. I’ve also done a list for damsires which, unsurprisingly, is a long one.

Sires

High Chaparral 16
Authorized 13
Cape Cross 10
Galileo 10
Jeremy 10
Montjeu 9
Nayef 8
Azamour 7
Barathea 7
Rock Of Gibraltar 7
Sinndar 7
Danehill Dancer 6
Pivotal 6
Poliglote 6
Califet 5
Dubai Destination 5
Dubawi 5
Haafhd 5
Hurricane Run 5
Mastercraftsman 5
Saint Des Saints 5
Teofilo 5
Al Namix 4
Dom Alco 4
Dylan Thomas 4
Halling 4
Le Fou 4
Motivator 4
Notnowcato 4
Redback 4
Smadoun 4
Tiger Hill 4
Tobougg 4
Acclamation 3
Alhaarth 3
Aussie Rules 3
Beat Hollow 3
Bering 3
Captain Rio 3
Dalakhani 3
Dansili 3
Enrique 3
Footstepsinthesand 3
Great Pretender 3
Hernando 3
Iffraaj 3
Indian Haven 3
Lemon Drop Kid 3
Monsun 3
Multiplex 3
Oratorio 3
Sakhee 3
Sea The Stars 3
Shamardal 3
Shirocco 3
Spartacus 3
Westerner 3
Act One 2
Ad Valorem 2
Antonius Pius 2
Arakan 2
Balko 2
Bernardini 2
Bertolini 2
Blue Bresil 2
Choisir 2
Clodovil 2
Doyen 2
Dynaformer 2
Imperial Dancer 2
Intikhab 2
Invincible Spirit 2
Kapgarde 2
Keltos 2
Kentucky Dynamite 2
Key Of Luck 2
Lando 2
Lawman 2
Le Vie Dei Colori 2
Librettist 2
Lucky Story 2
Manduro 2
Martaline 2
Montmartre 2
Muhaymin 2
Nickname 2
Night Shift 2
One Cool Cat 2
Peintre Celebre 2
Red Clubs 2
Red Ransom 2
Saddler Maker 2
Sakhee’s Secret 2
Statue Of Liberty 2
Stormy River 2
Trade Fair 2
Turgeon 2
Verglas 2
Voix Du Nord 2
Whipper 2
Alberto Giacometti
Antarctique
Aqlaam
Archange D’Or
Assessor
Avonbridge
Ballingarry
Baltic King
Barastraight
Beneficial
Big Shuffle
Birdstone
Bushranger
Cacique
Camacho
Captain Marvelous
Catcher In The Rye
Chevalier
Cockney Rebel
Conillon
Corri Piano
Dai Jin
Daliapour
Dandy Man
Dark Angel
Davidoff
Daylami
Denham Red
Diamond Green
Discover D’Auteuil
Doctor Dino
Dr Fong
Dragon Dancer
Dream Well
Duke Of Marmalade
Dutch Art
Echo Of Light
El Prado
Empire Maker
Equerry
Excellent Art
Exit To Nowhere
Falco
Fasliyev
Fath
Fraam
Generous
Gentlewave
Goldneyev
Governor Brown
Great Exhibition
Hard Spun
Indian Danehill
Indian Ridge
Indian Rocket
Intense Focus
Irish Wells
Ivan Denisovich
Johann Quatz
Kahyasi
Kallisto
Kandidate
Kendor
Khalkevi
Kheleyf
King’s Best
Laverock
Laveron
Lavirco
Layman
Le Balafre
Lesotho
Limnos
Lomitas
Lord Du Sud
Lord Of England
Lucarno
Malinas
Medicean
Monsieur Bond
Moss Vale
Muhtathir
Mull Of Kintyre
Network
Nicobar
Norse Dancer
Oasis Dream
Observatory
Officiel
Okawango
Old Vic
Orpen
Panoramic
Paolini
Papal Bull
Passing Glance
Pelder
Phoenix Reach
Policy Maker
Polish Summer
Proclamation
Pyrus
Rail Link
Raven’s Pass
Reefscape
Refuse To Bend
Reste Tranquille
Robin Des Champs
Robin Des Pres
Russian Blue
Sadler’s Wells
Saffron Walden
Samum
Sassanian
Shaanmer
Sholokhov
Singspiel
Sixties Icon
Slickly
Solon
Soviet Star
Spirit One
Starcraft
Storming Home
Stormy Atlantic
Strategic Prince
Tillerman
Tirwanako
Titus Livius
Touch Of The Blues
Turtle Bowl
Val Royal
Where Or When
Windsor Knot
Yeats
Zamindar

Trainers

Paul Nicholls 44
W P Mullins 32
Alan King 25
Nicky Henderson 23
Gordon Elliott 21
John Quinn 15
John Ferguson 14
D T Hughes 12
Donald McCain 12
Noel Meade 12
David Pipe 11
Gary Moore 9
Jonjo O’Neill 8
Mrs John Harrington 7
Tim Vaughan 7
Venetia Williams 7
Brian Ellison 6
Charles O’Brien 6
D K Weld 6
Brendan Powell 5
Charlie Longsdon 5
E J O’Grady 5
Evan Williams 5
Nick Williams 5
Tony Carroll 5
A J Martin 4
C Byrnes 4
Neil King 4
Philip Hobbs 4
Sheena West 4
Charlie Mann 3
Eoin Doyle 3
Jennie Candlish 3
K J Condon 3
Lucinda Russell 3
Sabrina J Harty 3
Steve Gollings 3
Charlie Mann 3
Eoin Doyle 3
Jennie Candlish 3
K J Condon 3
Lucinda Russell 3
Sabrina J Harty 3
Tim Easterby 3
Warren Greatrex 3
A L T Moore 2
A P O’Brien 2
Alan Fleming 2
Alison Thorpe 2
Denis W Cullen 2
Desmond McDonogh 2
Dr Richard Newland 2
Harry Fry 2
Harry Whittington 2
J F O’Shea 2
J Halley 2
James Ewart 2
Jamie Snowden 2
Jim Best 2
John C McConnell 2
John Joseph Murphy 2
Kieran Purcell 2
Kim Bailey 2
M F Morris 2
Mick Channon 2
Micky Hammond 2
Nigel Twiston-Davies 2
Oliver Sherwood 2
Patrick J Flynn 2
Robert Stephens 2
Robert Walford 2
Ross O’Sullivan 2
Seamus Mullins 2
T Stack 2
Tom George 2
Tom Tate 2
A J Whelan
A Oliver
Adrian McGuinness
Andrew Balding
Anthony Honeyball
Anthony Mullins
Augustine Leahy
Ben De Haan
Ben Pauling
Bernard Llewellyn
Brendan W Duke
C F Swan
C Roche
Chris Gordon
Colin Tizzard
D J Bunyan
Dan Skelton
David Dennis
David Wachman
E McNamara
Edward P Mitchell
Eugene M O’Sullivan
Frank Sheridan
Gary Brown
George Moore
Graeme McPherson
Henry Oliver
Howard Johnson
J G Coogan
J J Lambe
J Larkin
J T Gorman
James Bethell
Jamie Osborne
Jeremy Scott
Jim Goldie
John Joseph Hanlon
John Queally
John Ryan
John W Nicholson
K R Burke
Kevin Prendergast
Kevin Ryan
Lee Smyth
Lucy Wadham
M J Grassick
Mark H Tompkins
Maurice Barnes
Michael Blanshard
Michael Burke
Michael Mulvany
Michael Quinlan
Mrs K Burke
Ms Joanna Morgan
Nigel Hawke
Noel Quinlan
P J Prendergast
Patrick G Kelly
Patrick O Brady
Paul Nolan
Paul W Flynn
Peter Casey
Peter Hedger
Peter Niven
Phil Middleton
Reg Hollinshead
Renee Robeson
Richard Fahey
Richard Lee
Richard Rowe
Robert Alan Hennessy
Robert Tyner
S J Treacy
Sarah Humphrey
Seamus Durack
Seamus Fahey
T Hogan
T J Taaffe
T M Walsh
Thomas Mullins
Tim Walford
Timothy Doyle
Tracey Collins
W McCreery

Damsires

Sadler’s Wells 23
Darshaan 10
Rainbow Quest 10
Danehill 9
Linamix 8
Highest Honor 7
Cadoudal 6
Grand Lodge 6
Night Shift 6
Alzao 5
Mansonnien 5
Revoque 5
Unfuwain 5
Anabaa 4
Barathea 4
Cadeaux Genereux 4
Desert Prince 4
Efisio 4
Galileo 4
Groom Dancer 4
Indian Ridge 4
Machiavellian 4
Nashwan 4
Woodman 4
Acatenango 3
Big Shuffle 3
Diesis 3
Dom Pasquini 3
Dr Fong 3
Fairy King 3
Hernando 3
Kahyasi 3
Kaldoun 3
Kaldounevees 3
Lear Fan 3
Mark Of Esteem 3
Monsun 3
Red Ransom 3
Royal Academy 3
Smadoun 3
Suave Dancer 3
Trempolino 3
Ashkalani 2
Baryshnikov 2
Bering 2
Bertolini 2
Blushing Flame 2
Caerleon 2
Charnwood Forest 2
Common Grounds 2
Danzig 2
Daylami 2
Denham Red 2
Desert Style 2
Doyoun 2
Dynaformer 2
Entrepreneur 2
Exit To Nowhere 2
Garde Royale 2
Giant’s Causeway 2
Gone West 2
Great Palm 2
Green Desert 2
Gulch 2
In The Wings 2
Irish River 2
Josr Algarhoud 2
Kadalko 2
Kendor 2
King’s Best 2
Kingmambo 2
Lahib 2
Lake Coniston 2
Lando 2
Law Society 2
Lesotho 2
Lujain 2
Mtoto 2
Namid 2
Observatory 2
Orpen 2
Pivotal 2
Polar Falcon 2
Poliglote 2
Polish Precedent 2
Primo Dominie 2
Pursuit Of Love 2
Robin des Champs 2
Rock Of Gibraltar 2
Seeking The Gold 2
Selkirk 2
Shirley Heights 2
Subotica 2
Surumu 2
Valanour 2
Vettori 2
Village Star 2
War Chant 2
Zafonic 2
Abdonski
Adieu Au Roi
Akarad
Alhaarth
Alleged
April Night
Arazi
Artan
Atraf
Auction Ring
Bad Conduct
Bahri
Ballacashtal
Bay Express
Be My Chief
Be My Guest
Beyssac
Bluebird
Blushing Groom
Cagliostro
Call Me Sam
Cee’s Tizzy
Chamberlin
Cherokee Run
Cloudings
Colony Light
Court
Cozzene
Cyborg
Dalakhani
Danasinga
Danetime
Dark Stone
Dashing Blade
Desert Story
Diamond Prospect
Diktat
Distant View
Dom Alco
Double Bed
Dr Devious
Dumaani
El Gran Senor
En Calcat
Epervier Bleu
Eurobus
Ezzoud
Fantastic Light
Fayruz
Fijar Tango
Fleetwood
Fort Wood
Fraam
Grand Slam
Green Tune
Greensmith
Grindstone
Halling
Hamas
Hawker’s News
Hector Protector
Homme De Loi
Horse Chestnut
Indian River
Intikhab
Invincible Spirit
Jeune Homme
Johannesburg
Kalann
Karinga Bay
Key Of Luck
King’s Theatre
Kris S
Last Tycoon
Le Balafre
Le Glorieux
Lemon Drop Kid
Lil’s Boy
Lomond
Lost World
Lure
Lycius
Lyphard’s Wish
Magical Wonder
Majestic Light
Marasali
Marchand de Sable
Marju
Medicean
Mister Baileys
Miswaki
Montelimar
Montjeu
Mozart
Mr Greeley
Mr Prospector
Mt. Livermore
Muhtarram
Mujtahid
Mukaddamah
Nayef
Nebos
Network
Nikos
Nordico
Northern Crystal
Panoramic
Passing Sale
Pennekamp
Petong
Pharly
Pistolet Bleu
Port Etienne
Pot d’Or
Prince Fast
Private Account
Quart De Vin
R B Chesne
Ragmar
Rahy
Rainbows For Life
Redback
Rienzi
Robellino
Rodrigo De Triano
Roi de Rome
Saddlers’ Hall
Sagamix
Saint Ballado
Salse
Salt Dome
Samum
Scenic
Second Empire
Sendawar
Shareef Dancer
Shernazar
Sheyrann
Siam
Signe Divin
Silver Hawk
Simon du Desert
Sinndar
Sir Ivor
Sleeping Car
Sleeping Car
Slew O’Gold
Slip Anchor
Solar One
Solido
Soviet Star
Spectrum
Starborough
Storm Cat
Stravinsky
Swain
Tagel
Tagula
Taufan
Terimon
Theatrical
Theatrical Charmer
Tiger Hill
Tin Soldier
Tip Moss
Top Ville
Tour d’Or
Traditionally
Tragic Role
Turgeon
Turtle Island
Unbridled
Unbridled’s Song
Up And At ‘Em
Urban Ocean
Useful
Valdez
Video Rock
Waajib
With Approval
Xaar
Zilzal

[The Young Fella]

I’m a little late to the party here, but I really liked Mountainside. To my eyes, a lot of his nonsense early in the race was just greenness. Having seen him refuse on the flat, I think his temperament is more spooky than recalcitrant.

It looked like he had no idea what was happening for the first half of his hurdles debut, but the penny dropped nicely in the end. John Ferguson is a law unto himself and might ruin the horse by trying to win tinpot races under triple penalties, I think Mountainside will be a nice prospect if he takes it steady.

[Bachelors Hall]

I would go along with that for the most part although I would prefer to reserve absolute judgement until I see him actually pass another horse at the business end. I agree he’s probably more kitten than pig but it’s still a trait he could carry for some time (horses each having their own psychological profiles/developments and such). He’s certainly the best seen so far and would have the beating of Dominada on levels but I’d be surprised if he ended up being festival standard.

Tomorrow’s Newton Abbot card opens with the fourth Juvenile hurdle of the season and the first to be held in the south thus far. As with those that have proceeded it, the five-day entries were thin on the ground thus the form will very much be a law unto itself until the pool thickens. It features three with experience and a couple of maiden newcomers from the flat.

Mojawiz has the highest flat rating of these and is the only runner to have completed a jumps race – that effort being a second in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham. Though a little lit up early on. it wasn’t long before he settled and he jumped proficiently for the most part. He travelled like the winner turning for home but he didn’t find a great deal for pressure and was outstayed on the flat by a 41 rated flat plodder. Mojawiz started odds on that day and it was the third time in his six race career that he’d been beaten as favourite which alongside stamina doubts from the flat would be a cause for concern. It must be noted though that ‘blustery’ wouldn’t have done conditions on that Northumberland afternoon any justice and Hexham is a testing enough course on the mildest of days. As such, the sharper Newton Abbot would be a more appropriate examination of his ability. Furthermore, he kept on in a true line and didn’t necessarily look reluctant to pass the winner that day plus the form has been given credence of sorts as the fourth subsequently finished third at Market Rasen a fortnight ago. Ventura Castle went into his Uttoxeter jumps debut on the back of consecutive wide margin wins in ten furlong sellers at Lingfield and Ripon. He was entitled to win both these evens in such as fashion though as he had nineteen pounds in hand of his rivals at Lingfield and the Ripon race hasn’t produced any subsequent winners. Furthermore, there was no pace on in either race so the son of Paco Boy’s stamina was never tested. When it was tested at Uttoxeter, he was beaten before halfway and his jumping wasn’t too impressive either. He would probably have finished third that day were he not carried out by a loose horse but it would have been a tired and very distant third. Auld Fyffee is another migrant from the Uttoxeter race and looked set to finish a tired and distant fourth before being carried out in the same incident. She also managed a win on the flat but it came in a poor Wolverhampton claimer last December and her two runs on the flat this year saw her beaten a combined forty-nine lengths. She was untidy with her jumping but she hinted that she does stay the trip, albeit very slowly.

The two newcomers are closely matched on official jumps ratings with only four pounds separating them. Doubly Clever heads the pair with his mark of 62 which has slipped this year from a harsh 70. He wasn’t straightforward when beaten in an ordinary seven furlong Lingfield claimer on his penultimate start but looked more at peace with the world last time when a six length second over ten furlongs at Bath in a 0-65 classified race. It’s not good form but it’s a standard at least and it shows this trip should suit. There’s some encouragement in his pedigree as Iffraaj can get Juveniles and his dam’s side contains classy hurdlers Copeland and The French Furze. Londonia earned a mark of 60 after thrice finishing midfield in Kempton maidens last autumn at distances between six and eight furlongs for Paul Cole. He ran up to that mark on his return in May when carrying top weight to finish fourth in a messy ten furlong Bath handicap with two subsequent low level winners behind him. His latest outing over course and distance was deeply disappointing where he was beaten by fifty-four lengths. A few days later, he went to the Doncaster Spring HIT sale where he was picked up for £7,000 by Graeme McPherson who himself bought Fred Winter participant Harry Hunt five years ago for roughly the same price.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Mojawiz
2. Doubly Clever
3. Ventura Castle

Doubly Clever 4/1 Copeland 2nd Kingwell Hurdle (G2), Wincanton 2002 (5/3 The French Furze)
Auld Fyffee 1/2 Aland Islands 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Doncaster 2012 (1/2 Champagne James, Rory O’Moore)
Mojawiz – Dubawi (6) 3/2 Deadly Sting 1st Novices’ Chase, Worcester 2015
Ventura Castle 2/1 Maraafeq 1st Handicap Hurdle (121), Newbury 2010
Londonia .5 Rossetti 107 1st Handicap Hurdle, Les Landes 2015

Sires
Mojawiz – Dubawi (6)
Doubly Clever – Iffraaj (3)
Auld Fyffee – Haatef
Ventura Castle – Paco Boy
Londonia – Paco Boy

[droffats]

Excellent as always BH

[Bachelors Hall]

Thank you droffats :)

Here’s the review for the Newton Abbot race

Newton Abbot – 3rd July – 2m167y – Good to Soft

The fourth Juvenile hurdle of the season was a moderate one which was ran at a moderate gallop. It was the first event of the season where the word ‘soft’ appeared in the going description.

Doubly Clever was a maiden on the flat whose best form was no more than fair but his profile suggested he would be better over hurdles and he ran out a comfortable five length winner here. It took him a while to settle and his pulling cost him style marks over several hurdles but with the exception of a slight stumble after landing at the fifth, he still negotiated them effectively. He was reported to have schooled well and if he can learn to settle better then he could be a very tidy jumper. The overall characterization of this performance was one of immaturity and his tendency to wander on the flat re-emerged in between the last two flights but he won so comfortably in the end that it made no difference. He already looks capable of winning under a penalty whilst the standard isn’t too high and if he matures then he could well be competitive in the Autumn. Mojawiz disappointed when odds on for his jumps debut at Hexham and despite the winner looking fairly useful for the time of year, Mojawiz can only be described as disappointing again as this marks the fourth occasion he’s been beaten favourite in his last five runs. To his credit, he jumps as well as any Juvenile seen so far this season but his attitude is far from convincing as this is the second time in two starts over hurdles he simply hasn’t put his head down after being asked a question. His stamina can also be scrutinised although whilst he was bestowed the task of setting the running, it wasn’t the most searching gallop and he didn’t seem exhausted once passed suggesting that it wasn’t the trip that beat him. Mojawiz does have the talent to win at this level and it would be no surprise to see him placed again but he is developing a knack for finding excuses not to win. Ten lengths down the field, Auld Fyffee also jumped very nicely and, unsurprisingly given the pace, was in contention for much longer than at Uttoxeter. She was swiftly outpaced after the third last but galloped to the line looking seemingly a place candidate at best for the time being. Londonia was the other hurdling debutant in the field. Beaten a long way from home and jumping to his left throughout, he didn’t seem to take to the experience and it would be surprising to see him return to obstacles. Ventura Castle was disappointing on his debut and didn’t run any better here being the first beaten. He’s another who would be better served by a return to the flat.

And here’s the preview for tomorrow’s Stratford contest.

The Juvenile hurdlers are back and the action returns to Stratford in a race which is, on paper, considerably deeper than anything hitherto seen this season. A nice looking little contest for what it is, the leading Juvenile yards of Alan King and John Quinn send out their first three year olds and top sire Cape Cross also has his first runner.

Only one horse with hurdles experience lines up in the shape of Ace Of Marmalade. Brian Ellison’s gelding was hopeless on the flat and seemed flattered to finish fourth of fifth on his debut at Hexham where his jumping wasn’t exactly up to scratch. However, he jumped much better next time at Market Rasen and finished a well earned third closing on previous winner Dominada near the finish. That run would entitle him a chance to finish placed in a similar contest but the standard of newcomers, comparatively, looks too strong for him to hold a serious chance of winning here.

Paddys Runner is Alan King’s first juvenile of the season and leads the six newcomers from the flat on official ratings. After finishing nowhere on his sole two-year-old start and shaping with mere promise in two starts during may at Lingfield and Sandown, he earned his rating of 72 on his penultimate start. His strongest piece of form, he was just beaten in a fourteen furlong Nottingham handicap off top-weight where he had two subsequent winners and a twice placed horse in behind. More interestingly, he was beaten just half a length whilst giving eight pounds to The Twisler who since ran very commendably when a four length eighth in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. What was a concern though is that he looked all over the winner before seemingly retreating into his safe and happy place. Last time out at Chepstow in a maiden when well backed before the off, he probably ran to a similar level and whilst he was beaten too comfortably by a well bred filly to say if he shirked that battle as well, he didn’t exactly look like he was giving his all. Nevertheless, he has the best line of form, comes from a top stable and clearly stays well and is a leading contender here. Solstalla is a consistent filly who showed promise in two starts as a two-year-old and improved with each step up in trip before a pair of respectable runs in Nottingham handicaps over ten furlongs. The first came in April off a mark of 69 where they went a solid clip and she eventually finished fourth, just under two lengths behind the winner. The form of that contest has worked out well with nine of the eleven participants coming out to either win or finished placed in handicaps in their next two starts. After a break of sixty-four days, she returned to the track where she finished a bit further back in fifth but to her credit, she was well ahead of her remaining rivals and finished best of those held up off what was a rather sedate gallop. With two wins and a place from the four ahead of her to have been out since, this race is threatening to shape up similarly well. Solstalla’s Newmarket based trainer, William Jarvis, has had only one jumps winner from thirty attempts over the past twenty-three seasons but that winner did come this season and on breeding, a Halling Dubawi cross looks the type to do well in this sphere. Leoncavallo will be the fourth Juvenile already this season for John Ferguson’s Bloomfields operation, the form figures of the first three reading 2212. Keen on two starts last year, he had three runs on the all weather which were a steady education. Though he had to be bustled along in the opening stages of the three contests, there was an improvement on each occasion culminating with a three length win in a mile and a half handicap at Wolverhampton off 62 (was 5lb well in). He returned to the turf in a Beverley 0-75 handicap where he stayed on for fourth without quite getting the rub of the green and the form of that race is solid for the grade. It was a more disappointing effort last time out at Windsor where after being slow out of the stalls once again, he raced more prominently and had no real excuses for fading back into a seven length fourth. Nevertheless, he’s another who’s sure to stay, his stablemates have all jumped nicely and Cape Cross’s are always interesting at this standard. After a winter break where his testicles were requisitioned, Loom Of Life‘s best effort in a Newcastle mile handicap when third off 64 despite running green. He then disappointed over a furlong further at Redcar and his next two runs over a mile and four at York and Haydock were not much better. His regression was compounded when last of four back over a mile at Nottingham after being pushed along early. St Paul’s Square had a most inauspicious two-year-old career beating only three of his forty-two rivals home in maiden auction stakes races but a enacted something of a turnaround when runner up in a seven furlong Lingfield claimer at 66/1 in January. He has been consistent ever since finishing within three lengths of the winner in all but one of his nine subsequent starts, predominantly in sprint handicaps. A son of Amadeus Wolf, he probably found a mile at Bath too far and his official rating of 51 is apt. Racing Spirit‘s best and most pertinent performance to date came towards the end of May when finishing fourteen lengths eighth in a one mile six Redcar maiden handicap. There’s every reason to believe he will stay the trip and being a representative of John Quinn, he’s likely to jump well but the standard of his form to date is well behind that shown by several of his rivals.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Solstalla
2. Paddys Runner
3. Leoncavallo

Loom Of Life 4/2 Ring The Boss 2nd Kingmaker Novices’ Chase (G2), Warwick 2008 (4/2 Theatre Girl, Conflictofinterest 5/3 Tilabay)
Leoncavallo – Cape Cross (10) 6/5 Fait Le Jojo 1st Handicap Hurdle (132), Ascot 2002
Solstalla 3/2 Alsadaa 1st bet365.com Hurdle (Listed), Sandown 2009
St Paul’s Square 4/2 I’m Confident 1st Galway Hurdle (Listed, 9-7) Galway 1989
Ace Of Marmalade 2/2 Shield 1st Novices’ Hurdle, Galway 2014
Paddys Runner .5 Icy Reply 1st Mares Hurdle, Navan 2014
Racing Spirit 1/1 Vinando 4th Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Sandown 2006

Sires (Juveniles who appear in ‘top 500′) jumps’ winners to runners ratio
Leoncavallo – Cape Cross (10) 38%
Solstalla – Halling (4) 41%
Ace Of Marmalade – Duke Of Marmalade (1) 14%
Paddys Runner – Sir Percy (0) 38%
Racing Spirit – Sir Percy (0) 38%
St Paul’s Square – Amadeus Wolf (0) 17%
Loom Of Life – Rip Van Winkle (first crop)

[hbgmysite]

My top French NH 3yo speed figures:
31-Mar-15 Enghien (FR) Caresse D’Estruval (FR) 3/5F 96
07-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) Cibellaly Du Seuil (FR) 104/10 94
07-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) Tes Yeux Bleu (FR) 14/5 89
07-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) South Pacific (FR) 12/1 88
19-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Caresse D’Estruval (FR) 3/5F 85
07-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) Sky Clear (FR) 13/1 85
26-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Mocalacato Has (FR) 31/10F 83
24-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) King’s Socks (FR) 33/10 82
26-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Device (FR) 4/1 79
26-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Irmao Joao Has (FR) 242/10 79
07-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) Adrien Du Pont (FR) 99/10 79
31-Mar-15 Enghien (FR) Kamaloka (IRE) 11/1 79
26-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Chinco Star (FR) 201/10 78
24-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) Shakapon (FR) 17/5 78
19-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Bellaville (FR) 69/10 78
31-Mar-15 Enghien (FR) Royal Society (FR) 43/10 78
28-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) Loca (FR) 29/10F 77
26-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Nabuco Has (FR) 32/1 77
26-Apr-15 Auteuil (FR) Bulkov (FR) 179/10 76
07-Apr-15 Enghien (FR) King’s Socks (FR) 21/1 76

[Bachelors Hall]

Apologies for very threadbare contribution – have been busy and am working without a keyboard – hopefully will be fixed soon!

Arbitrary 1
1. Mountainside

Mountainside 3/1 Vaporetto 1st Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil Hurdle (G1), Auteuil 1999
Penny Boo 4/2 Bedava 1st Prix Hypothese Hurdle (Listed), Auteuil 1996
Londonia .5 Rossetti 1st Handicap Hurdle, Les Landes 2015
Robben 2/1 Lightning Spark 2nd Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Uttoxeter 1992
Retro Valley no jumps relatives

Mountainside – Dubawi (5) 51%
Penny Boo – Acclamation (3) 20%
Robben – Dutch Art (1) 9%
Londonia – Paco Boy 0%
Retro Valley – Vale Of York 0% (0 runners)

[droffats]

Any views for tomorrow at Uttoxeter BH if you are able.

I like Doubly Clever but not sure of the Ferguson horse

[Bachelors Hall]

Sorry droffats – my ability to post has been seriously compromised due to technical issues. I wanted to comment on that Beverley horse White Bullet – I was looking at the race thinking that she’s as nailed on a certainty as one gets before I watched her runs at York and Newmarket. Then I thought it would be interesting to see if she was the type who just didn’t like to win races. Had she been straightforward in her pattern races, connections may well have been brought in front of the stewards. That’s just how I saw it though.

As it turned out, Jaleo didn’t turn up against Doubly Clever but here are my belated thoughts on that, and the other two races I missed;-

Stratford – 12th July – 2m70y – Good

They went a reasonable gallop and the time was quicker than the opening novice although some five seconds slower than the Class 3 handicap hurdle. Beforehand, it looked like the strongest field assembled so far this season and in the end, the two leading contenders came clear of the remainder.

Leoncavallo was the second winner of the season for the powerful John Ferguson yard and was clipped from an opening 11/4 into 9/4 before the off. Apart from pulling a little bit in the early stages, he travelled easily once settled. However, it was his jumping which was most taking as other than being very slightly awkward at the fourth, an untidy leap at the seventh and clipping the last when running green, the economy of the majority of his leaps were probably the best seen this season. Taking the lead at the second, he was headed briefly after the seventh but he stayed on the bridle and quickly went back to disputing the lead leaving the rest of the field behind. Turning into the straight, he had his sole rival firmly under the cosh and powered away with a green enthusiasm when push towards the last before coasting home on the run in. Though it is inevitable that classier types will emerge, Leoncavallo would have to be the strongest Juvenile seen so for this season. Paddys Runner was the first juvenile of the season for Alan King and came in with the highest official flat rating. He was slightly guessy at the third and took off way too late at the last when beaten but otherwise, his jumping was absolutely fine. He briefly led after a mistake by his rival but despite travelling best in the field to that point, was soon being nudged along over the mound and never regained control of the race. It was almost certainly the case that he was simply beaten by the better horse on the day and on this evidence, he is more than capable of picking up a race of his own. Nevertheless, he remains a maiden over both codes despite trading considerably lower than his SP in running so he will be carrying an aura of uncertainty until he proves his mettle. Racing Spirit had proven stamina from the flat but his form was far below that demonstrated by his rivals so it was no surprise to see him outpaced going into the far side. He stayed on to finish a remote third near the finish and his jumping was sound without being spectacular but given his strong stamina and the fact his family takes time to mature, he’s unlikely to be winning one of these. Ace Of Marmalade already had two runs over hurdles under his belt and after pulling a bit at the start he went through this race rather inconspicuously making no real errors but offering no real threat. He’s consistent enough but he would have to wait for handicaps before holding a real chance of winning a race. Loom Of Life had to be driven into the first flight and whilst he only made a real error at the second, his overall attitude and awareness when it came to hurdles was not good enough to suggest he has a future over hurdles and this is before considering stamina issues. Solstalla was a consistent and straightforward sort on the flat but she drifted rather alarmingly before the off. After making several mistakes on the first circuit, she didn’t seem enthusiastic about another lap and after a few more mistakes and coming off the bridle at the top of the track, she was eventually pulled up. It would be a surprise to see her over hurdles again. St Paul’s Square‘s flat form mostly came at sprint distances but it wasn’t strong in any case and after several errors, he was already getting detached with a circuit to go.

Market Rasen – 18th July – 2m148y – Good (8.5)

Only four lined up for this contest after course and distance winner Mountainside was withdrawn, taking most of the race’s interest with him. There was a steady gallop and the overall quality of jumping wasn’t really up to scratch.

Retro Valley already had seventeen runs on the flat to his name along with three wins including last time out in a mile and a half handicap at Brighton. He had a stone in hand over his rivals and won as he was fully entitled to. He pecked a bit on landing at the second and steadied into the third before getting a bit tidier in the back straight. He made his race winning move on the long stretch between the second and third last flights and despite a rather wild swerve at the penultimate hurdle and without great fluency at the last either, he still had enough left in the tank to finish the race on the 300 yard run-in. He didn’t achieve a great deal here on bare form and he looked far from an absolute natural but there is enough talent and resolve there to pick up another weak contest on decent ground before the summer is out. Robben was a maiden after sixteen starts on the flat and the form was rather hit an miss but save for reticence at the first and mistakes at the third and last, he was the best jumper in the field on balance. A very weak juvenile may be within his scope if he can build on this but he’s no better than average. Londonia was the only runner with experience and that was when well beaten at Newton Abbot. He pulled himself into the lead and set a modest gallop but he jumped left at most of his hurdles and dropped away tamely when headed entering the straight. Penny Boo was modest on the flat and made several mistakes before being the first beaten in the back straight.

Uttoxeter – 26th July – 1m7f168y – Soft

Another four runner affair although it did feature two winners – both of whom had beaten the dubious Mojawiz last time. The ground was out and out soft for the first time this season and the gallop was subdued.

Doubly Clever was only fair on the flat but he comfortably made it two from two over hurdles here. Racing somewhat keenly whilst tracking the runner up throughout most of the race, his jumping was also compromised occasionally but it was still an improvement on his debut effort. He was a bit fractious down at the start and just like at Newton Abbot, he wandered around quite a bit when asked to go clear so he has some growing up to do mentally. Nevertheless, he won nicely in the end and whilst a double penalty will obviously make things more difficult, he’s up to winning one of the Class 3 juveniles provided the opposition isn’t too strong. Egmont stepped up a fair amount on his flat form when winning at Hexham in remarkable conditions and he appears to have maintained that standard of form. He jumped better than the winner with his only real mistakes coming under pressure in the straight. He is a likeable sort but he isn’t especially talented and it’s easier to see him win a handicap or a seller than it is another one of these under a penalty. Auld Fyffee jumped a little to the right at the first and was a bit slow, albeit better, at the second before jumping perfectly fine for the rest of the race. After a poor first run over hurdles at Uttoxeter, she improved on her latest start and more or less matched that form at the weights with the winner which suggests she’s likely to be a consistent sort. She won a claimer as a two-year-old and a race at that kind of level may be within her reach. Naval Action was only fair at best on the flat for Mark Prescott and had disappointed on both subsequent starts. His hurdling debut didn’t offer much hope for the future as he was slow and deliberate in many of his jumps. After being outpaced, he fought his way back into contention leaving the back but was soon left behind again and ultimately finished well beaten.

[Bachelors Hall]

Juvenile hurdling returns to Market Rasen where the first three (of four) from the course and distance event a fortnight ago return to the fore to take on six newcomers including the late Jeremy’s first juvenile of the term and another John Ferguson beast. The bulk of the newcomers bring nothing from the flat but two bring wins at least and it provides a nice opportunity to prove the form of the aforementioned contest.

Retro Valley was the comfortable winner that day though on all prior form, he was entitled to win as he had a stone in hand of his rivals on flat ratings. Winning three of his seventeen starts on the flat, his profile was that of a steadily improving animal as his three wins came in his last six starts – latest when forging clear in a Brighton handicap off 68 (the fourth has since twenty pounds after completing a hat-trick). He was said to have sulked when slightly disappointing at Windsor on his penultimate flat start but he has proven that he can be game when sufficiently interested. Apart from a few sketchy errors, he jumped well enough at Market Rasen and although it was on the flat where he was most decisive, he demonstrated his toughness when keeping on after the last and with his potential yet to be fully tapped, he’s very much a contender at this standard. Robben was runner up behind Retro Valley a fortnight ago and like the winner, gained plenty of experience on the flat after sixteen starts. The standard of his flat form wasn’t as high as Retro Valley’s and he failed to win any race although he did finish ahead of Retro Valley in a Leicester handicap. Robben’s jumped just about better than the winner on balance at Market Rasen strictly on weights, he has an advantage so a reversal of placings can’t be ruled out entirely. Nevertheless, Robben has worn headgear on his last fourteen starts and Retro Valley was a comfortable winner last time so his credentials as a winner are suspect. Londonia has the most experience over hurdles and will be having his third such start here but he’s jumped left and failed to see out the race on both occasions so it’s difficult to envisage him playing much of a role.

After five starts on the flat, Arabian Oasis brings an official rating of 80 although it was initially 83 following his sole success in a Wolverhampton maiden. His two starts as a two year old saw him finish second in a five runner Newmarket maiden which in retrospect, was quite modest for the track, and a well beaten seventh in a Haydock maiden where the best of those to have emerged have gone on to straddle the top-handicap/pattern class barrier. Despite being a regally bred son of Oaks winner Love Divine and brother to St Leger winner Sixties Icon, Darley resigned him to a life of celibacy and removed his testicles over the winter. On his return, he picked up his only success in said Wolverhampton contest where he was given an uncontested lead by his opponents and an enterprising ride by Phillip Makin which saw him kick five lengths clear at the turn for home only for that lead to shrink ever more dramatically the closer they got to the line. Next time, running off topweight in a five runner handicap at Chelmsford, he seemed to have every chance two furlongs out but while the in running comments say he was short of room, it definitely looked like he had more than enough room and it was his disposition that squeezed him out prior to him finishing a tame last. Back at Wolverhampton on his latest start, he again had the lead turning in but for reasons known only to the horse himself, he shoulder barged the running rail and again, dropped to last. Arabian Oasis represents John Ferguson’s Bloomfields operation where his juvenile record this season reads 22121 and all of his charges have hurdled well in the main so he is entitled to respected on that basis alone. However, it would be a bold move to anticipate a straightforward display here. Our Kylie brings a win and two places from the flat although her profile is not one of a consistent filly as she’s been beaten by over fifteen lengths in four of her five starts this year. That non-abysmal effort came in a Ripon handicap where she was third behind two inform fillies. Her sole success came last October in a ten furlong Nottingham nursery off 63 by means of a most gutsy performance. The standard is poor given that no winner has come out of that race after twenty-four runs but interestingly, trainer Tony Coyle said afterwards “This time next year she will be running over hurdles and I think she will be a cracking little hurdler”. It is difficult to see her actually winning this race but this daughter of Jeremy is a half sister to a four time winning mare over hurdles so if she doesn’t surprise here, there’s will be opportunities later in the season for her to be a fun filly for connections. Toboggan’s Gift only hinted at ability in three starts as a two-year-old and has ran poorly in twelve and thirteen furlong handicaps at Beverley and Ayr respectively whilst showing signs of temperament. Unraced last year, Wagstaff has beaten only three of thirty-nine rivals in four maiden contests in the south. The standard of opposition is probably a bit easier here and Mick Channon can get Juvenile winners but there’s too much to prove at this stage. In three starts last season and five starts this one, Boldbob‘s best effort was a nine length fourth in a Thirsk maiden. Since then, he hasn’t even ran close to his official mark of 41. Similar comments apply to La Vien Zen whose ten length sixth in a Beverley maiden last term has been followed by perpetual disappointment.

Arbitrary 1-2-3*
1. Retro Valley
2. Arabian Oasis
3. Our Kylie

Toboggan’s Gift 4/2 Solarius 3rd Prix Leon Rambaud (G2), Auteuil 2003 (3/1 Moonlit Harbour 4/3 Call Me Bubbles)
Arabian Oasis 2/2 Gibb River 1st Handicap Hurdle (144), Sandown 2012
Wagstaff 3/1 Rainbow Peak 2nd Handicap Hurdle (135), Aintree 2014
La Vien Zen 2/2 Wingtips 5th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2012 (.5 Cassells Rock)
Our Kylie 6/2 Jurado Express 5th Swordlestown Cup Novice Chase (G1), Punchestown 2003 (5/3 Premier Portrait, Shesaportrait)
Londonia .5 Rossetti 1st Handicap Hurdle, Les Landes 2015
Robben 2/1 Lightning Spark 2nd Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Uttoxeter 1992
Boldbob .5 Khelino PU 4YO Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2012
Retro Valley no jumps relatives

Sires
Our Kylie – Jeremy (10) 42%
La Vien Zen – Dylan Thomas (4) 47%
Boldbob – Verglas (2) 19%
Arabian Oasis – Oasis Dream (1) 29%
Robben – Dutch Art (1) 8%
Toboggan’s Gift – Major Cadeaux 0% (no runners)
Wagstaff – Rip Van Winkle 0%
Londonia – Paco Boy 0%
Retro Valley – Vale Of York 100%

[droffats]

Excellent post as always BH, shame about your technical problems and I hopoe you get them sorted. Interesting race today and I think you have it spot on. I always like those with experience even if they did not jump well first time.

[Bachelors Hall]

Cheers. The guy who sorted out the issues was actually really good so I’ll be using him again should issues re-emerge.

Indeed, racecourse experience will improve a horse’s hurdling nine times out of ten just as a 2YO will step up after its racecourse debut. How many pounds/lengths would you say a run over hurdles adds to a horse’s chance?

[droffats]

Spot on as usual BH.
I would say about 5 lenghts IMO but I am no expert.

[jimster]

Mmm. A lot of thought has went in to this thread. Everybody knows Mullins will win when & where he wants to. Simples.

[Bachelors Hall]

droffats wrote:

Spot on as usual BH.
I would say about 5 lenghts IMO but I am no expert.

I’m also thinking more or less five lengths but it’s something to look into once there’s more data for the season.

jimster wrote:

Mmm. A lot of thought has went in to this thread. Everybody knows Mullins will win when & where he wants to. Simples.

It is always cause for excitement when Mullins sends out his youngsters.

Market Rasen – 18th July – 2m148y – Good (8.4)

Market Rasen’s third Juvenile of the season was roughly a carbon copy of the one a fortnight earlier with a few newcomers thrown in for good measure. In the end, the finish was fought out by two game animals and the field crossed the line more or less as expected so the form should hold up. A decent enough gallop was set but the time was slower than the novice and the Class 5 handicap ran later in the card.

Retro Valley was improving on the flat and followed up his success from a fortnight ago under a penalty with a game performance making it five wins overall for 2015. He jumped marginally to the left at most of his jumps but he was still clean and tidy in doing so apart from at the fourth where he was a little wild and stumbled a bit on landing. Nevertheless, he found his feet swiftly and the overall standard of jumping was a step up from his debut effort. As with his flat wins, he demonstrated toughness here again as he pulled out a bit more when the runner up closed on him on the run in. He will probably have to go for a Class 3/2 contest now to lessen the burden of his double penalty and there will almost certainly be stronger types emerging before the graded contests start but he’ got a very likeable attitude and there’s further improvement to come. Our Kylie was the first Jeremy offspring to run this season and as befitting of her sire, the switch to hurdles turned around what was becoming a disappointing 2015. She left her back legs in at the penultimate flight and steadied a little into the last. However, neither of these errors were too detrimental and she put in a very safe round overall whilst demonstrating sufficient promise that she can be even more polished. She had to be switched after the last but this didn’t affect the result as she had a furlong to make up the ground and was close enough if good enough. Nevertheless, she did battle on all the way to the line and with hurdling looking like her métier, she looks sure to win races. Arabian Oasis demonstrated promise in the Godolphin blue but he also looked a bit iffy to put it nicely which is probably why this son of Love Divine is facing hurdles so early in his career. He jumped to the right a couple of times went through the fourth but like the other Bloomfields inmates, had clearly been well schooled. A little keen early, he was soon put back on the bridle and was travelling strongly along the back straight. However, as they turned in and he was asked a question, his concentration went to pieces and along with never looking like giving a substantial effort, he barely even noticed the last hurdle and was rather fortuitous to have remained upright afterwards. This cost him any chance he may have feasibly held and he finished third largely because he was there in the first place. Like a couple others of his stablemates, he clearly has the talent to win one of these but he would have to lose that squiggle first and foremost. Robben was six lengths behind the winner on their first encounter at the track but that margin doubled here despite him being better off at the weights. His jumping was roughly on a par with his debut display putting in a couple of nice leaps along the way along with a couple of awkward ones. It was probably the stronger pace what did for him as his leaps were tired in the straight and on the balance of his profile and his breeding, he probably doesn’t have the stamina to see out a truly run hurdles race. Boldbob had over thirty pounds to find with the protagonists on the best of his flat efforts this year and he set a decent gallop by himself so his thirty length defeat at the end was inevitable. Nevertheless, it wasn’t a run bereft of promise as he was still holding the lead until right before the home straight, his hurdling was nice and tidy even when beaten and he wasn’t given a hard time once headed. He’s not good enough to win anything remotely average but there was enough to suggest there might be a small race in him somewhere. Toboggan’s Gift was very keen early, got scrubbed along passing the stands first time and jumped right on occasion. She made headway along the back and was still just about in touch on the turn but she lost her place quickly and shown only a modicum of promise. Londonia had the most hurdling experience here but it didn’t translate to improvement as he was hesitant at the first, lost ground at halfway and tired in the straight where tailed off. It is difficult to envisage any success over hurdles for the Paco Boy gelding. Wagstaff was untidy at the first two flights but otherwise jumped well whilst chasing the leader. However, he was already losing ground before the fifth and ultimately finished tailed off. La Vien Zen clattered into the first, refused to settle, was getting detached with a circuit to go, was slow at the fourth, scrambled over the fifth and pulled up soon afterwards which was all in keeping of her perceived prospects beforehand.

[Author]

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