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Juvenile Hurdlers 2009/10

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  • #12136
    mdwillis
    Member
    • Total Posts 82

    Now that we at the halfway point of the 2009 flat season. I noticed a on a few posts on certain racing forums are starting to talk about the 2009/10 NH season. Has anyone seen any 3 year olds on the flat that might make a good juvenile hurdler and could see perform well in the Triumph Hurdle in march. I have seen a few 3 year olds which might be interesting. The King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot is a sort of race that might produce a decent young hurdler and last years Triumph winner Celestial Halo ran in the 2007 renewal. I have seen 2 horses that look like decent triumph hurldle types. The first is owned by the Queen – Highland Glen who is by Monjteu I can see her sending him to Nicky Henderson in the autumn who he completes is ban. The second horse I have seen is called Brunston who is by High Chapperal who I have since seen stay on to take a place at a handicap at Hayock he is owned by Seasons Holidays who have horses trained by Paul Nicholls and they also sponsor the Champion Chase. There is another 3 year old I have seen who is also by montjeu this time round he is trained by Sir Mark Prescott called Fortuni. What are the chances we might see Fortuni being aimed for the triumph hurdle for Wylie/Johnson. Of course I would love to see a "big name" 3 year-old go hurdling in the winter something like a Harbinger or a Jukebox Jury but I can dream of course. So anyone seen a 3 year old you like to see at the fesitval come march?

    #240513
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Souter Point was being touted as one by Roger Charlton today! He is the type who might love a flight of hurdles to break up the monotony of running!

    #240515
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Any Amanda Perrett horse bred to stay a mile and a half should do the job. All really good physical specimans, all well bred expensive yearlings, and she won;t have got the best out of any of them. Cry For The Moon is one such type, as is Classic Vintage.

    Richard Hannon’s Lethal Glaze has done nothing but progress over the last 12 months and would surely make a pretty useful jumper.

    #240519
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Temple Lord and Sway in France are already up to Triumph standard and have been bought by J P McManus. FWIW.

    #240551
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    There might be an error or two in this list.

    This is a list of 3yo horses that are owned by the Aga Khan, trained in Ireland, and have run this Flat season (hence no Arazan).

    Baliyana
    Alaivan
    Mariydi
    Alaiyma
    Eytarna
    Aliyfa
    Adjaliya
    Zaralanta
    Ebashan
    Zarinski
    Shiyrman
    Sheridaniya
    Halaziya
    Tarankali
    Anak
    Rayeni
    Mourayan :lol:
    Mashaal
    Shalambar
    Zafferana
    Tanoura
    Tarousa
    Siwaara
    Timabiyra
    Takasima
    Davari
    Dabirana
    Alajan
    Dilinata
    Erdiyna
    Karkari
    Kalimanka
    Adaiyra
    Haridiyna
    Hassuna

    I suppose we could chuck out the fillies, as they will on the whole be kept for the paddocks. I think this essentially consists of eliminating all the horses ending with an ‘a’.

    I did a little bit of work on past Triumph winners a few months ago, and my first thought was ex-Aga Khan horses.

    I’ll do a little bit of profiling this evening, in terms of what RPR or OR Triumph winners achieved as 3yos on the Flat, etc.

    #240556
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Temple Lord and Sway in France are already up to Triumph standard and have been bought by J P McManus. FWIW.

    Shhhh – was trying to keep those quiet :wink:

    #240557
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    They’re likely to race over in France – at least till the end of this November.

    #240560
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    I was thinking that, reading between the lines and on balance, they were odds against to run here. But if they

    were

    to be aimed at the Triumph: blimey!

    #240641
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Year Horse Breeder [/color:14u9mwre]

    3yo Flat Form RPR [/color:14u9mwre]

    2009 Zaynar HH The Aga Khan’s Studs SC [/color:14u9mwre]

    922 Fr [/color:14u9mwre]

    2008 Celestial Halo Roncon Churchtown etc [/color:14u9mwre]

    1630027 114 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2007 Katchit Whitley Stud [/color:14u9mwre]

    234242255126 88 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2006 Detroit City Edward J Kelly [/color:14u9mwre]

    91115612 91 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2005 Penzance Elite Racing Club [/color:14u9mwre]

    641000 86 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2004 Made In Japan Darley [/color:14u9mwre]

    830365226 87 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2003 Spectroscope Mrs M Campbell-Andenaes [/color:14u9mwre]

    080114 73 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2002 Scolardy JS Bolger [/color:14u9mwre]

    205080 83 [/color:14u9mwre]

    2000 Snow Drop Mlle N Dagg [/color:14u9mwre]

    5144005 Fr [/color:14u9mwre]

    1999 Katarino Haras des Condraies [/color:14u9mwre]

    Fr [/color:14u9mwre]

    1998 Upgrade Juddmonte [/color:14u9mwre]

    1997 Commanche Court Cambremont [/color:14u9mwre]

    633140 Fr [/color:14u9mwre]

    1996 Paddy’s Return C Foy [/color:14u9mwre]

    23 81 [/color:14u9mwre]

    1995 Kissair Liam Phelan [/color:14u9mwre]

    541714142401 83 [/color:14u9mwre]

    1994 Mysilv Overbury Stud [/color:14u9mwre]

    53150931343 68 [/color:14u9mwre]

    1993 Shawiya HH Aga Khan [/color:14u9mwre]

    632123 83 [/color:14u9mwre]

    1992 Duke Of Monmouth Calumet Farm [/color:14u9mwre]

    01144 79 [/color:14u9mwre]

    1991 Oh So Risky Barrettstown Stud [/color:14u9mwre]

    3180 93 [/color:14u9mwre]

    1990 Rare Holiday Moyglare [/color:14u9mwre]

    1131 ? [/color:14u9mwre]

    1989 Ikdam ME Wates [/color:14u9mwre]

    08511140 ? [/color:14u9mwre]

    1988 Kribensis Martin Ryan [/color:14u9mwre]

    ? ? [/color:14u9mwre]

    21/21 are male-tail descended from Eclipse. I’m sure you’ll all find that a useful piece of information.

    20/21 are male-tail descended from Birdcatcher, so the Irish can claim them all as theirs (see earlier thread after the Kentucky Derby). The exception was Commanche Court (St Simon route), and he was certainly Irish as well.

    19/21 are male-tail descended from Phalaris.

    3 are from the Native Dancer line, and 16 from Nearco.

    Of these 16, 5 are Nasrullah (4 Mill Reef), 9 Northern Dancer and 2 Dante.

    What I was most surprised about a few months ago when I did this was that 3 are male-descended from Be My Guest.

    Running lots of times as a 3yo on the Flat is a plus – it shows that the horse is sound, and means that the trainer only has to teach the horse to hurdle.

    About a quarter were brought up in France. Of the others, these

    tended

    to have a maximum RPR of between 80-95.

    I think that although a horse might have occasionally only been competing over 8f so far, by September it ought to be competing over 10f+.

    My Public expect me to include Racing Post Flat Stamina Indices in a study like this, so I’ll append them later. 19/21 had a Sire FSI of 9+ furlongs and 17/19 had a Damsire FSI of 10+ furlongs (2 don’t have one).

    #240989
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    As I said, 19/21 Sires have a FSI of 9.6+ furlongs, and only two Damsires have a FSI of less than 10.2 (I had looked King Emperor up before – although he has a very-heavily sprint influenced Dosage profile, he won the Stuyvesant H’cap, which was a 1 mile race in the year he won it.)

    Using my slightly dodgy method of allocating a FSI of 15 to any stallion that doesn’t have one, and then adding the Dam and Damsire figures together, only 2 of the 21 Triumph winners had a combined figure of less than 19.9

    Year Horse Sire FSI [/color:2cdeoohs] Damsire FSI [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2009 Zaynar Daylami 11.3 [/color:2cdeoohs] Kahyasi 12.8 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2008 Celestial Halo Galileo 11.1 [/color:2cdeoohs] High Top 10.3 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2007 Katchit Kalanisi 11.6 [/color:2cdeoohs] Ezzoud 11.5 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2006 Detroit City Kingmambo 9.8 [/color:2cdeoohs] Seattle Song 10.7 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2005 Penzance Pennekamp 8.2 [/color:2cdeoohs] Soviet Star 8.6 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2004 Made In Japan Barathea 9.6 [/color:2cdeoohs] Darshaan 11.7 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2003 Spectroscope Spectrum 9.6 [/color:2cdeoohs] Alzao 10.3 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2002 Scolardy Turtle Island 10 [/color:2cdeoohs] Nebos 15.2 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    2000 Snow Drop Double Bed 13.6 [/color:2cdeoohs] Mandalus 12.3 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1999 Katarino Pistolet Bleu 11 [/color:2cdeoohs] Cadoudal 18 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1998 Upgrade Be My Guest 10.1 [/color:2cdeoohs] Top Ville 11.2 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1997 Commanche Court Commanche Run 11.6 [/color:2cdeoohs] Fabulous Dancer 10.2 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1996 Paddy’s Return Kahyasi 12.8 [/color:2cdeoohs] Bustino 11.3 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1995 Kissair Most Welcome 8.7 [/color:2cdeoohs] Bikala 12.8 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1994 Mysilv Bustino 11.3 [/color:2cdeoohs] Milesian – [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1993 Shawiya Lashkari 13.1 [/color:2cdeoohs] Relko 14.8 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1992 Duke Of Monmouth Secreto 10 [/color:2cdeoohs] King Emperor 5.4 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1991 Oh So Risky Kris 9.9 [/color:2cdeoohs] Vaguely Noble 11.6 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1990 Rare Holiday Caerleon 10.7 [/color:2cdeoohs] Super Concorde 10.7 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1989 Ikdam Glint Of Gold 11 [/color:2cdeoohs] Run The Gantlet 13.7 [/color:2cdeoohs]
    1988 Kribensis Henbit 10.3 [/color:2cdeoohs] Double-U-Jay – [/color:2cdeoohs]

    #240999
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    These are the figures for the 3yos mentioned so far. The Damsire FSIs seemed to be being made fun of by the horses, so I had a look at the Mare Conduit Profile Indices as well. (The latter are basically a female version of Dosage. I really need to read the book.) Low CMP Indices tend toward stamina.

    CMP Index Horse Sire FSI [/color:3rffxiss] Damsire FSI [/color:3rffxiss]
    1 Highland Glen Montjeu 11.6 [/color:3rffxiss] Daylami 11.3 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line
    0.75 Brunston High Chaparral 9.5 [/color:3rffxiss] Big Shuffle 7.7 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line
    0.91 Fortuni Montjeu 11.6 [/color:3rffxiss] Green Desert 7.9 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line
    0.75 Souter Point Giant’s Causeway 9.2 [/color:3rffxiss] Caller ID 9.6 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line
    0.71 Cry For The Moon Street Cry 8.1 [/color:3rffxiss] Zilzal 8.4 [/color:3rffxiss] Native Dancer line
    0.88 Classic Vintage El Prado 10.1 [/color:3rffxiss] Kissin Kris 7.5 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line
    1 Lethal Glaze Verglas 9.6 [/color:3rffxiss] Lion Cavern 7.8 [/color:3rffxiss] Grey Sovereign branch of Nasrullah line
    0.77 Temple Lord Califet – [/color:3rffxiss] Local Suitor 9.3 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line
    ? Sway Califet – [/color:3rffxiss] Video Rock 12.1 [/color:3rffxiss] Northern Dancer line

    CMP Index Year Horse
    1.14 2009 Zaynar
    0.5 2008 Celestial Halo
    1.24 2007 Katchit
    0.82 2006 Detroit City
    0.68 2005 Penzance
    0.82 2004 Made In Japan
    0.73 2003 Spectroscope
    0.79 2002 Scolardy
    0.83 2000 Snow Drop
    0.67 1999 Katarino
    0.95 1998 Upgrade
    0.83 1997 Commanche Court
    0.4 1996 Paddy’s Return
    1.1 1995 Kissair
    0.6 1994 Mysilv
    0.77 1993 Shawiya
    1.05 1992 Duke Of Monmouth
    0.86 1991 Oh So Risky
    0.62 1990 Rare Holiday
    1.22 1989 Ikdam
    1.26 1988 Kribensis

    It is gratifying to see that Penzance’s low Conduit Mare Profile Index counteracts his low FSIs.

    #241015
    Sunshine Street
    Member
    • Total Posts 18

    Agree with

    Anak

    , thought he was very impressive at Ballinrobe. He has juvenile hurdler written all over him. Presumably the horses-in-training sales beckon.

    Alaivan

    is another that would be very interesting

    A dark one here.

    Cross Appeal

    trained by Noel Meade. Owned by John Corr who has owned the likes of Aran Concerto and Moscow Express. Throw

    Morning Time

    into the bargin also.

    #241017
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Causeway King, ex-Mark Johnston, caught the eye on his debut for Alan King when mid-division in a 1m Kempton handicap earlier this month. He should improve when stepped up to 1m2f+ and looks the type to land a couple of small races on the Flat before being switched to hurdles.

    #241019
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Thanks for working through my list of Aga Khan horses, Sunshine Street; I hadn’t looked at them yet. :wink:

    #263475
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I was just curious as to whether Alaivan had been mentioned. He seems to be a higher-class than most Triumph winners.

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