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Hi all
Just a real newby question on the jumps season. I’ve really only bet on the flat season with some success but found as soon as I start betting on the jumps, I lose with a seemingly random set of horses winning. I’ve stopped betting on the jumps but would like to start again with hopefully the same success, so does anyone have any tips?
Bipman
Hard to offer advice unless you can say what changes in your approach when the flat stops. What’s your approach to making selections on the flat?
Hi
Pretty much checking form, going, jockey riding, trainer, checking all the tips, length of race etc. which has seen me in good stead but on the jumps it just seems to go to pieces.
Bipman
The only small bit of advice I would give is to ignore the odds when picking your selection. The number of times I’ve fancied a horse only to be turned off by lack of market support. Bitview Colin and Alice’s man in hexham last week were both examples of where I thought the horses had good chances but was turned off by them being the outsiders of the field. Other than that its hard to give advice to others on betting really, some people like betting large on hot favourites while others like getting each way value. Some place a lot of value on trainers comments while others ignore that totally so its really whatever your into yourself
Personal preference comes into it a lot as does confidence. I’m much more confident betting over jumps than on the flat for the following reasons:
1. Interference is close to non existent in NH racing whereas it is a daily factor and, I think, a substantial one in Flat racing.
2. Unless you are concentrating on established handicappers, Flat horses are difficult to study from a character and ability viewpoint as they are usually not around long enough or they are young and therefore constantly growing and changing.
3. No need to allow for the effects of the draw (draw students will argue this is a disadvantage, of course, and rightly so for them – see “personal preferences/confidence”).
Yes, in jumping your horse can fall, unseat or be brought down, but many fall because they are not good at jumping and there is often sufficient evidence of this to allow you to avoid betting such horses. Unseats pretty much enter the same category. On Brought Down, you’re subject to fate to a fair extent but wise jockeys tend to stay clear of rivals who might bring them down so there is some element of control.
One significant advantage I believe I have is that many people, some of them very experienced, tend to judge a horse’s jumping ability by what it does with its front legs. Many miss what is happening behind and ignore a horse’s overall athletic limits.
It’s worth stressing again the value of confidence. I think it’s an overlooked factor in the pursuit of long term ‘success’ (however you judge that). I suspect, Bipman, that it’s a confidence thing with you more than anything else. It’s worth starting afresh and trying to dump the perception that you cannot win at NH. There is no reason at all that your approach on the Flat should bring you different results over jumps. If you are betting winners on the level you are well capable of doing so at the winter game. Look at the advantages I’ve listed above and believe in them: they’ve worked for me for more than 30 years. Time for you to – as the modern saying seems to be – reboot your punting brain and go at the new season with belief and high confidence.
Good luck to you…and welcome to TRF.
Watch the videos. Errors in jumping waste energy and lengths and, depending on the individual horse, a bad mistake can really knock a horse’s confidence. Go back to the videos of a horse’s beginners chases or maiden hurdles to see what mistakes were there at the start of their career and watch a sequence of that horse’s races to see how it’s coming on. Left or right handed track makes a big difference to some. Think about reasons for bad performances. Was it just the ground/trip didn’t suit or is something else going on? The fact that NH horses are bigger and older than the Flat ones meams they are more prone to wind problems and the like developing.
I’ve learned a lot on TRF over the past year, there are loads of jumps aficionados on here!
Good luck
Oh yeah- don’t just rely on the race comments. “Jumped left at times” means it kept landing in the carpark and “not fluent throughout” means it was woeful and was lucky to stay on its feet. You need to watch the videos – preferably with the sound turned down- with your eyes on your horse of interest all the way round to pick up more subtle things. Try to work out if mistakes were just unlucky or novicey, or due to a fundamental lack of scope, talent or simply not enjoying the job.
Watch what fallers do. If they have a fairly soft little unlucky tip-up fall, bounce to their feet and bowl along loose happily, looking like they’re enjoying themselves over the fences that would definitely not put me off backing them next time out. Whereas if they have a right cruncher I’d probably want to just watch them next time to see if mind and body have been affected.
Basically, watch the videos!Buy Timeform Race Passes.
Pay particular attention to trainers in form and pace in the race as well as those of good jumping and temperaments as much as their frailties. Jumps horses have more problem temperaments than flat.
Look at times of year. Look up Auroras Encore’s record in the Spring compared with other times of year and ask yourself whether he deserved to be 100/1 to win the Grand National?
Some horses are best fresh/early in the season, some only worth a bet first time out and don’t want to know otherwise.
Value Is Everything
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