- This topic has 51 replies, 12 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
I can’t really see them running him twice in competitive races on heavy a week apart, especially after his performance in his second race at Galway. I think he may be one who takes time to get over his races and if he gets any sort of a tough race tomorrow he won’t go to Limerick.
Yeah, I’d be amazed myself Grass, though looking forward to seeing how he gets on tomorrow, as he could have a decent pot in him this year.
Very poor from Shaneshill today, and I think you might be right Grass, and he may need a proper break between races.
A Toi Phil was a tidy winner, but I’d be surprised to see him back out next week, and he maybe faces a spell outwith handicaps now.
Haven’t seen the Riviera Sun race, but the RP Comments aren’t encouraging, while it was a lifeless comeback from Ned Stark. I’d maybe give him another look if Davy Russell was jocked up again next week, but that may be clutching at straws.
I’ve decided to take that chance on Alpha Des Obeaux, and I think that win only makes the most sense here, as if he’s good to go, then he might just be well enough handicapped to take this. Those issues with bleeding will always be a concern for him, but happy to be with him, and his stablemate Dromnea at this stage.
I’ve been looking over it again, and it could easily have been Katnap, On Fiddlers Green, or Auvergnat, but I’ve hopefully chosen right with Alpha. The more I looked at Auvergnat, the more I liked him, if he’s ultimately got The Cross Country at Cheltenham as his target, then long term, his mark won’t matter. He can afford to romp this, and not ruin his season, but you can’t bet them all, and I’m still planning on doing Shanpallas each way.
Alpha Des Obeaux (Win)
Dromnea (EW)
both 14’sDoes you know the maximum field size (and in general where to find this info for other big handicaps?)
Dipping my toe in for the first time with Shanpallas at 25/1 as well. He’ll win one of these as soon as he gets his ground. Some rain tentatively forecast on Saturday but hopefully not much.
Tempted by that 9/1 On Fiddlers Green too but will think it over a bit more.
Well as per my post last Friday, I’m siding with SHANPALLAS at 25/1
and TULSA JACK at 20/1 and have parted with my cash.
I’m hoping that DEVIL BRIDE stays in, which will have both running off very nice weights.
Even if he doesn’t trap, I’m pretty sure ARBRE DE VIE will, so at worst they will have a
4lb hike. I’m still resisting backing SLOWMOTION (at this point) much as I’m a big admirer.
I still can’t put my finger on what was amiss last time out, but I’ll keep a close eye for
positive market signs with her being one of JP’s.Good luck guys with Shanpallas, I give him a decent chance here if the weather forecast is spot on.
Grass, the field limit is 16, and there’ll be 3 reserves.
As for where you find it in general, I’m not sure, I just use RP for everything, though I’m sure someone will able supply us with a link for a site that’s very helpful for this type of thing.
Final decs are in. Main withdrawals are Devil’s Bride, Arbe De Vrie, and also Katnap, who I dodged a bullet with.
Decent looking field, albeit with the majority of them being Giggs & JP runners, and the three I fear most are Auvergnat, On Fiddlers Green, and especially Rock On Fruity.
Good to see that my two, SHANPALLAS and TULSA JACK, are still there. I can’t help
myself, I’ve just got to have a few quid on SLOWMOTION at 16s with
Boylesports, I’d end up kicking the cat (if I had one) if she puts that poor run last
time behind her. If back to her best, she would have a very decent chance, although
I could have done without her hike up to 11-6 with a few at the top pulling out.
That’s me done, I’ve got her on the nose and the other 2 e/w.
Good luck chaps
Total Recall smashed into favouritism but feels a bit muggy given that he has an abysmal record going this way round. With bleeder Alpha Des Obeaux also well supported, this must be a good betting race. Two shonky favourites are eating up a good amount of the percentage here.
Sadly the ground remains soft (heavy in places) so I’m looking to trade out of Shanpallas.
I think it is hugely significant that Andrew Lynch has chosen to ride Stellar Notion in favour of On Fiddlers Green. Fidders was the smashed-up 2/1 fav for a red-hot race at Galway last time and was tanking until a race-ending mistake. Ditching him for Stellar Notion suggests last year’s 2nd has progressed from his reappearance in a big way. Taking 25/1 (5 places) with Paddy.
Yeah, shame about the ground for Shanpallas, can’t believe the ground hasn’t dried out. I couldn’t have had Stellar Notion for this, but that is a telling Jockey booking.
I had went off Dromnea as I expected quicker going, but confidence growing, and with that ground, looks like my hopes are pinned on him and Alpha.
I still haven’t backed anything.
Thoughts so far:
ADO- Plenty of class and jumps well so if fit big chance even under topweight, and if you’re going to back a bleeder I suppose after a good break is best, but I don’t like backing bleeders
Slowmotion- really like this big rangy mare but she is far from the finished article jumping wise (slow through the air and still dwells a bit on landing), physically not filled her frame and mentally poss still a bit immature. Gets her ground but hard task giving weight to older stronger horses
Rogue Angel- had his day in the sun aleady? But trainer likes the race. Don’t know anything about the claimer
Stellar Notion- is breathing op not headgear he needs. Happy to be proved wrong for LS’ sake!
Arkwrisht- Watched Listowel again, impressed. Raced wide, jockey no irons from 2nd last, still ran a cracker. Good big strong horse to cope with weight hike and JJ Slevin good pilot
Should be favourite
Raz de Maree- older horses not good record here
Dromnea- ditto, but going well this summer. Good luck with him VTC
Shanpallas- Not got his ground
On Fiddlers Green- Stewards report on Galway race cites bad mistake for bad run. Was indeed quite bad mistake, allowing pack of horses to get ahead of him just as race hotting up on a front runners track. Possible.
Tulsa Jack- haven’t looked at him properly yet
King Leon -meh
Auvergnat- nice little horse with little weight, fighting chance
Net D’Ecosse- bridesmaid horse but I like him. Good EW bet. Lots of starts this year, hope not too many
Phils Magic- some good runs over summer, might bet him EW
Total Recall- would be 20s or worse if trained and ridden by anyone else. Unimpressive jumper. Horse he beat for his win not progressed over fences. If he wins they need to raid Closutton for magic wands
Rock on Fruity- could be tempted
Riviera Sun- why the crap run LTO?
Top of the Town- needs better ground
The Winkler- haven’t looked at himTotal Recall as low as 4’s now, and touched 3’s yesterday, they must be some special magic wands Grass lol
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.