Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › Jose Vs BHA Handicapping Team
- This topic has 523 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 13 years ago by Dallimann.
-
AuthorPosts
-
November 14, 2010 at 21:43 #328002
Monday’s Qualifiers
Irish Guard
Monash Lad
KumbeshwarNovember 15, 2010 at 14:30 #328063The Stewards considered the running of QUEENSTOWN LAD, ridden by JAMES DAVIES and trained by G BROWN, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed the trainer, who stated that the gelding was better suited by stepping up in trip. They forwarded his comments to the British Horseracing Authority so that the performance of QUEENSTOWN LAD in his earlier races could be reviewed.
This has to be one of the most impressive improver’s EVER. Beaten 108l, 116l and 101l in its first three runs. Run from 36 pounds out of the handicap twice racing off 64 according to the RP. Running off 64 again, 14lbs out of the handicap this time, and won a 5 runner race.November 15, 2010 at 21:26 #328135Tuesday’s Qualifiers
RAMORA
How the following was not pursued only those in charge know.
The Stewards enquired under Rule (B) 57.1 into the running and riding of CARLTON SCROOP (FR), ridden by Kieren Fox and trained by A.W. Carroll, which finished second, beaten 2 lengths. They interviewed the Rider and Trainer and Adam Kirby, the rider of the winner COUNTRY ROAD (IRE). The Rider stated that his instructions were to jump out and get off the rail as the going is always deeper on the inside. He added that he carried these instructions out. The Trainer confirmed these instructions, adding that as there was likely to be no pace in the race, CARLTON SCROOP (FR) should make the running. Adam Kirby, the rider of COUNTRY ROAD (IRE) stated that his instructions were to jump out and get some cover. He added that as COUNTRY ROAD (IRE) tends to hang left, he felt it wise to stick to the rail. The Trainer confirmed this instruction. Having viewed the video recording of the race, the Stewards noted these explanations and took no further action.
November 16, 2010 at 16:07 #328220Chapman is currently asking where Ramora’s win come from. I could help him with that. No, I could not, but that helps with the last 2 weeks of struggles with this thread.
Moving on. Canal Bank is a horse I’ve mentioned regularly, with good reason. I emailed the BHA once, Paul Struthers once and I now have my reply to my question.
I do appreciate the reply – there are many sporting governing bodies that won’t reply to any general questions, and regardless of how bad I think the reply is, they have replied which is a good thing.
Anyway, Canal Bank’s performance figures and the classic comments from the email.
Each run will feature what I worked the run out to be using basic mathematics and what they worked it out to be.
Beaten 67l by Intac – BHA 45, JOSE 49
Beaten 93l by The Jigsaw Man – BHA 35, JOSE 46
Beaten 93l by Novikov – BHA 34, JOSE 23
Beaten 43l by Holoko Heights (115 rated off level weights btw) – BHA 93, JOSE 72
PU at Uttoxexter – BHA 0, JOSE 0
I should add they refused the horse a rating twice.
November 16, 2010 at 21:27 #328276Wednesday’s Qualifiers
Kalypso King
CyflymderNovember 17, 2010 at 13:54 #328346I don’t want to make this post too long, but I think it’s time I commented on the reply I received from the BHA.
Why do BHA handicappers pay any attention whatsoever to the price of a particular horse? The price is irrelevant in their job, or it is as far as I’m concerned.
Does a qualified, suitable, intelligent handicapper really think a horse who is rated 93 would be "out of his depth" in a 0-95 handicap if the horse has run to a mark of 0? Yes 0, courtesy of being pulled up.
And if the horse has been unsuited by the ground, what is the need to drop the horse 3lb? The same applies to not staying the trip, although Chesptow proved otherwise.
I’m terrified as to what a "non-cautious" approach would have been. 10lbs, 15lbs or maybe 20lbs? But why was it appropriate? The horse was pulled up – it produced no "measurable" form.
As for being proud of how this horse was rated, I can believe that, but what does this say for British horse racing and the British handicapping system? "
"We got him competitive" – no you enabled a horse who imo still produced no measurable form to win a handicap chase.
I watched the race live at Chepstow on ATR, for a few reasons, and Canal Bank won a lot more comfortably than the margin suggested, so to quote a line about the distance between the first and the fourth is clearly a sign they are happy with selective facts. Go with the idea that Canal Bank didn’t win as easy as I think for a second. If the horse wasn’t dropped the 3lb for being PU we would have got a "closer" race.
In all area’s this is an example of the system failing.
I don’t know how the 93 fits with the Holoko Heights race because Holoko Heights is not a 130 rated chaser.
November 17, 2010 at 22:25 #328403Thursday’s Qualifiers
MAMBA
FOXESBOW
DARK GENTLEMANNovember 18, 2010 at 13:09 #328479The Stewards considered the apparent improvement in form of the winner, RAMORA (USA), ridden by Kylie Manser and trained by Miss Olivia Maylam, compared with its previous run at Wolverhampton on 1st November where it finished eleventh, beaten eleven and a half lengths in a one and three quarter mile handicap but, having received a report from the trainer that she could offer no explanation and in the absence of any other relevant information, they decided not to hold an enquiry.
The Stewards considered the running of the winner TOCATCHAPRINCE (IRE), ridden by Dave Crosse and trained by M F Harris, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed the trainer who stated that the gelding benefited from wearing a visor for the first time, the first time running in a seller and a fair handicap mark. They forwarded his comments to the British Horseracing Authority, so that the performance of TOCATCHAPRINCE (IRE) in his earlier races could be reviewed.
The Stewards considered the running of the winner ROC DE GUYE (FR), ridden by Robert Kirk (3) and trained by H J Evans, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed the trainer who stated that this was the second run over fences, which he preferred, and that this time he had appreciated the better ground (good to soft, good in places) and not pulling so hard today, and only 3 of the 7 runners completed the race. They forwarded his comments to the British Horseracing Authority, so that the performance of ROC DE GUYE (FR) in his earlier races could be reviewed.
The Stewards considered the running of the winner VENETIAN DOVE (IRE), ridden by Paul Moloney and trained by Evan Williams, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed David Burchell, the trainer’s representative, who stated that the yard had not had the horse long as it had been trained in Ireland and he could offer no comment on its previous form or today’s improvement. They forwarded his comments to the British Horseracing Authority, so that the performance of VENETIAN DOVE (IRE) in her earlier races could be reviewed.
Another highlight is the horse who hated the kickback at Lingfield in the straight.
November 18, 2010 at 13:21 #328482And I’ve been sitting through reading the BHA handicapping blog in astonishment since Wednesday.
The last bit on a French race was good. The horse ran to whatever random number we felt like it, but we are going to rate it 20lbs below that because we don’t believe it.
Seemingly week in week out there is some sort of complaint to a member (or members) of the team, or a comment in the press – usually from people who have nothing but their own interests at heart. However, we continue with the struggle and remain firm in trying to convince the racing fraternity that we’re only striving for fairness and equality.
– Martin Greenwood
Mr Greenwood, please resign.
Thank You.
One comment in the Racing Post particularly caught my eye this week. Glancing through Nicky Henderson’s weekly column in the Saturday edition, I turned my attention to the small article Nicky had written about one of his owners Paul Murphy.
Paul, who owns Aegean Dawn, runaway winner of the boys’ race at Cheltenham the previous day on his debut for the yard, is also the owner of several decent horses in the Henderson stable – and his purple and yellow silks are probably quickly recognised by racing fans.
Paul had sent me an email earlier in the autumn questioning my assessment of one of his horses, Working Title, who had just won at Uttoxeter. Despite his protestations Working Title remained on the revised mark of 142, and duly followed up at Kempton earlier this month – he’s is now a further 10 lb higher on 152. Paul is obviously still vexed about my treatment of his dual winner, because according to Nicky, “much to Murphy’s chagrin, (Working Title) has risen a ridiculous 22 lb in the process.”
Not being in the habit of being ‘ridiculous’ I thought I would do a bit of research about the Henderson/Murphy combo, and I was astounded by my findings. Using the 2010 Horses In Training as a guide and adding Aegean Dawn’s recent win to the equation, the Henderson/Murphy horses have contested 14 handicaps (both hurdling and chasing) between them since the beginning of the 2009/10 season up until the present date. Of those 14, seven have been successful – a staggering 50% strike rate – as well as having a second and a fourth.
Given the overall strike-rate for jumpers is around 9%, then the stats seem overwhelmingly in favour of the Henderson/Murphy team. Which begs the question: who’s being ridiculous now?
However, Mr Greenwood directly contradicts the idea that the BHA handicappers pay no attention to who it is.
So why did Mr Greenwood wish to take a full look at who it is?
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 45-13.html
That is the link to the rest of the question.
November 18, 2010 at 14:43 #328497AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
The Stewards considered the apparent improvement in form of the winner, RAMORA (USA), ridden by Kylie Manser and trained by Miss Olivia Maylam, compared with its previous run at Wolverhampton on 1st November where it finished eleventh, beaten eleven and a half lengths in a one and three quarter mile handicap but, having received a report from the trainer that she could offer no explanation and in the absence of any other relevant information, they decided not to hold an enquiry.
The Stewards considered the running of the winner TOCATCHAPRINCE (IRE), ridden by Dave Crosse and trained by M F Harris, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed the trainer who stated that the gelding benefited from wearing a visor for the first time, the first time running in a seller and a fair handicap mark.
The Stewards considered the running of the winner ROC DE GUYE (FR), ridden by Robert Kirk (3) and trained by H J Evans, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed the trainer who stated that this was the second run over fences, which he preferred, and that this time he had appreciated the better ground (good to soft, good in places) and not pulling so hard today, and only 3 of the 7 runners completed the race.
The Stewards considered the running of the winner VENETIAN DOVE (IRE), ridden by Paul Moloney and trained by Evan Williams, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed David Burchell, the trainer’s representative, who stated that the yard had not had the horse long as it had been trained in Ireland and he could offer no comment on its previous form or today’s improvement.
Another highlight is the horse who hated the kickback at Lingfield in the straight.Is there a site where we can view the outcome of these endless referrals, or are we to assume that no action is ever taken after the initial inquiry?
November 18, 2010 at 14:51 #328500There are no links about what they do with the endless referrals. They do have a huge number for a system that is supposedly working, even if they are merely going through the motions. I suppose because no one is charged they don’t feel the need to comment or go through each run with, say, the handicappers opinion on each run.
November 18, 2010 at 18:23 #328524The Stewards considered the apparent improvement in form of the winner FOXESBOW (IRE) ridden by A P McCoy and trained by Jonjo O’Neill compared with its previous run at Towcester on 4th November, where the gelding was pulled up. Having received a report of the trainer’s representative’s explanation that the gelding made several mistakes last time, but jumped much better today, they decided not to hold an enquiry. The Stewards ordered FOXESBOW (IRE) to be routine tested.
And the 3rd December 2009, 17th December 2009, 21st January 2010, 3rd June 2010, 8th October 2010, what happened then?
What I’m going to do is compile a league table with the names of trainers who manage to get their names on the BHA stewards area for horses improvement in form.
November 19, 2010 at 00:28 #328580Just the 4 meetings to go through.
Friday’s Qualifiers
WRECKING CREW
LOVE IN THE PARK
MEKONG MISS
DIAMOND DAISYAnd PILLAR OF HERCULES ran a race last time out relative to the code of racing, but the horse is definitely worth a mention for reasons I don’t need to explain.
November 19, 2010 at 21:51 #328728Winners 3/25
Placed 8/25Profit/Loss at SP +45.33pts
Profit/Loss at Early Prices +52.5pts
November 20, 2010 at 00:30 #328761Saturday’s Qualifiers
Laustra Bad
AcostaAnd a couple who anyone looking through the form would expect to be included but aren’t.
Il Duceneeds one really bad run to qualify.
November 20, 2010 at 10:24 #328794Jose,
Just to complete the tale of Veuveveuvevoom reported at the top of page 11, she was indeed raised from 20 to 40 as predicted.
The issue of Aegean Dawn raised by you also interests me from another angle. Having been raised 21lbs for his win at Cheltenham, why is the system so painfully slow that he’s allowed to run again off the same mark a week later and make a mockery of a handicap at Ascot worth £12,000.
The handicapper has published his revised mark, I know it, you know it, his trainer knows it etc, but the system creaks on at the speed of a carrier pigeon. So far as I’m concerned, the owners of the other runners in the Ascot race have been denied a fair run for their entry fee.
It’s frankly ridiculous that, in the age of the email and the text message, when entries and declarations are done online, the revising of handicaps mark is still tied to a schedule based on the weekly publication of the Racing Calendar.
AP
November 20, 2010 at 10:55 #328797Hi Jose,
Ref: Ramora.
I was at Southwell on Tuesday and witnessed this firsthand. The filly was completely unbacked and came home to silence from the stands. A few friends and I rushed to the winners enclosure to get a glimpse of Southwell newbie Miss Maylam – we knew we’d get a good space because only favourites ever get clapped home by the uber-conservative Southwell crowd.
She’s only a slip of a thing, Miss Maylam – and how young? They say you’re getting old when Plod look like they’ve just left school, but how about trainers?
The steward’s secretary emerged from the weighing room and asked her for an explanation about the improved form. Miss Maylam looked embarrassed and a bit non-plussed. She had none.
Ever the gentleman, I pointed out to the stewards secretary that the horse was a USA bred (one of only two in the field) and had been the only horse in the race to be held up off a suicidal pace, which collapsed. I’m surprised Chappers – a keen student of American form – didn’t spot that. Happens all the time on the Fibresand.
Better, my friend went home and discovered form – for Henry Cecil – which, allied to a seriously declining perch, would have enabled her to win this by a furlong.
Olivia gave us all Strike Force the next day at Leafy which was unlucky not to win. Best of luck to her.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.