Jonjo stable form

[Charlie D]

Sean

like Carvills stated somewhere, maybe Jonjo was running a load of carp in December and he’s not been out of form at all

He ran 6 yesterday, 3 in frame, does this mean he’s no longer out of form

Trainer form is a weird one to analyze and get an angle on due to unknowns imo

[clivex]

Aidan

Yes, im glad you brought up Mountain. A highly impressive first run of hurdles beating a 40/1 shot by a length ( i was there that day) and the following comments from the RP

but while Tony McCoy didn’t have to get serious with him on the run-in he wasn’t wildly impressive, and if he wasn’t so good on the Flat he wouldn’t be anything like so short, for he doesn’t even come out the best horse in the race strictly on the bare form.

…and his career has subsequently blossomed,of course

No one is saying that JJ is completely useless and individual performances can be brought up to justify any argument but there is no doubt in my mind that Nichols and King operate at a different level

They key to King and Nichols is that they always seem to know exactly what the next step will be. Apart from their obvious natural talent with horses, they always seem to have a plan or at the very least, options considered. Im a great believer that the really talented people in any walk of life are clear and concise communicators and have a great deal of confidence in their judgements

[Charlie D]

No one is saying that JJ is completely useless and individual performances can be brought up to justify any argument but there is no doubt in my mind that Nichols and King operate at a different leve

But the stats show you different Clivex and thats why i posted em, they show that Jonjo’s return to runners is on a par with King, Nicholls etc

It is only say, Nicholls having horses of the ability of KS, Denman etc in his care that makes the difference

[johnjdonoghue]

Clivex,

I think Nicholls and King are better trainers than O’Neill, thats clear. However, Nicholls is not innocent of mistakes as a trainer, I am firm beliver that the decision to run Azertyuiop at Sandown against Well Chief brought an end to this fantastic race horse’s career. Now tell me how clear and concise this plan was, because it certainly was a huge mistake.

JohnJ.

[Charlie D]

If you put, Jonjo Gary Moore, Hughie Morrison, Hobbs, Pipe etc into Ditchet with that string would not the result be about the same???

[clivex]

I am not sure that he was able to predict the injury to Azerty (who was overraced on that occasion) but that end of season squabble with Pipe had an ugly look about it and was a mistake (as i think he admitted).

Charlie …im not an obsessive on stats but strike rate is always a reasonable indicator

last five seasons JJ 16% PN 23%

Its all very well going on about McManus not sending him his best horses too, but ever wondered why that might now be? Isnt that rather damning after all the investment in Jackdaws castle?

[clivex]

Smithy

How many good horses does the rich owner packed stable of P Nicholls have? same with D Pipe

One, two, three???

Charlie..one minutes its the above and then….

If you put, Jonjo Gary Moore, Hughie Morrison, Hobbs, Pipe etc into Ditchet with that string would not the result be about the same???

as for the answer to your question, i think they would all do pretty well (although not quite as well perhaps) with one exception …

[Charlie D]

Clive

last five seasons JJ 16% PN 23%

Would you not expect P Nicholls to have a higher s/r, seeing he has probably a better string of horse to go into battle with though

It’s just like comparing Hughie Morrison to AoB. Aidan has the ammo, Hughie does not, so it should follow Aidan is gonna have a better return, be it in s/r, type of races won or in prizeomey won terms

[Charlie D]

i think they would all do pretty well (although not quite as well perhaps) with one exception …

Thank you Clive, I think they all would do pretty well also

[johnjdonoghue]

I am not sure that he was able to predict the injury to Azerty (who was overraced on that occasion) but that end of season squabble with Pipe had an ugly look about it and was a mistake (as i think he admitted).

Sorry Clive, I don’t understand what you mean here, of course Nicholls could not predict the injury, thats not my point. My point is that the horse was ****** after a season of running in top class chases against top class horses, he was not right at Cheltenham and should have been left off for the season. Whether Nicholls said it was mistake does not take away from the fact that the horse was retired due to this terrible error of judgement.

I think Nicholls is a brilliant trainer, thats why he is the champion trainer, however I think you are being incredibly harsh on O’Neill IMO. Some of the horses listed above, especially the flat horses acquired from Ballydoyle were impecably bred but as you know are not a shoe in to be fantastic hurdlers or chasers.

JohnJ.

[Aidan]

“A highly impressive first run of hurdles beating a 40/1 shot by a lengthâ€

[Charlie D]

Charlie, I think someone mentioned the stats before, two winners since begginning of December. As for your latest question, your now clutching at straws mate. Jonjo is at Jackdaws, not ditcheat, and i don’t need pathetic stats to tell me the stable ain’t fireing. Lets see how Nor’NorEast gets on at Folkestone now.

.

I think you may find i was saying put Jonjo, Pipe etc into Ditcheat and the stats are not pathetic as they are indeed facts, facts which cannot be disputed, unlike opinions

[clivex]

The RP comments were in relation to CH’s place in the market, not the performance which was a win by 14 lengths "easily"

I was there. It was impressive and the horse kept to his task very well indeed.

[clivex]

and the stats are not pathetic as they are indeed facts, facts which cannot be disputed, unlike opinions

Stats can only ever tell part of the story. Obviously a high strike rate is better than an abysmal one, but can also be indicative of a very cautious trainer too (Egerton for instance)

Returns to stake are not an indicator of training ability either, for obvious reasons. But again you would prefer to see some decent results and consistency

In terms of whether a horse’s ability is maximised (which is what this is really all about), then stats are of little use frankly. Simply watching and following enough racing over the years is sufficient to form a reasonable opinion i believe

i like to think that I can differentiate the Gosdens’s from the Berry’s…

[Charlie D]

In terms of whether a horse’s ability is maximised (which is what this is really all about), then stats are of little use frankly. Simply watching and following enough racing over the years is sufficient to form a reasonable opinion i believe

Clive it doesn’t matter how long you’ve watched racing, an opinion is an opinion and as such it is subjective

results and the race, trainer, jockey stats are facts and not open to interpretation

Jonjo has 82 winners this season , more than Nichols, Pipe etc and has a similar s/r

You, I, Smithy etc can form subjective opinions from this info as to the merits of Jonjo’s training ability, but we cannot dispute the facts

[Sean Rua]

They key to King and Nichols is that they always seem to know exactly what the next step will be. Apart from their obvious natural talent with horses, they always seem to have a plan or at the very least, options considered. Im a great believer that the really talented people in any walk of life are clear and concise communicators and have a great deal of confidence in their judgements"

Clive’s interesting statement above has got me posting here, even though I said I wouldn’t!
I rarely listen to anything that trainers say, so, may I ask, what are Nicholls’ plans for the Cheltenham Gold Cup?

Runners, riders, etc?

I seems I shall be betting against at least one runner from his stable.

Sean Rua.

[Smithy]

To be honest Charlie, I am still trying to come to terms with the fact that a horse has an amount of ability, and that the trainer has nothing to do with it.

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