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So there’s a horse running today that I have been looking forward to see run for several weeks.
I’m afraid it is a Cecil horse again –
All Time
This one is from the same family as Passage of Time, Timepiece and Father Time and she always got a mention as a two and three year old. When she ran last year however she was terribly backward and ran no sort of race at all on very fast ground.
The fact that they have persisted with her is interesting but what is even more interesting is what she does on the gallops. She works with Jet Away who you will know won that very good race at Goodwood the other day earning an RPR of 116. All Time leaves Jet Away for dead on the gallops.
Now you have to take one or two things on trust. She has no actual form whatsoever. She has to carry a hefty 4 year olds weight. She is running on very soft ground. But the opposition look moderate. All her family have acted on soft and she is very useful based on her homework. I was expecting to see her at about 7-4 but have just taken 9-4. She should really win.
I’ll double up on my two 9-4’s but I won’t be backing Searing Heat as the ground has turned to Good to Soft at Newmarket and I don’t think he’ll like it.
Bit harsh to say the opposition looks moderate Joni – Baheeja is unexposed and hails from a top yard, Selfsame has a decent pedigreevand the stable had a FTO winner yesterday, and the Hannon runner ran well LTO. WhilstbI respect any Cecil horse currently, it’s a race to watch IMO.
Well you called it Joni, Thomas Chippendale won that wellvand I was on, thank you, again!
Nice work Joni mate with
Popular
and
Thomas Chippendale
,I’ll be interesed to see this
All Time
tonight as I backed her on her debut last year myself,she is a typical ‘Juddmonte’ home bred filly as like herself,her Dam and Granddam were trained by Henry too,however neither were anything special!
Thanks guys – he won as he liked and will go to Royal Ascot next. He is a beautiful looking horse – very leggy and I am sure he will be better on better ground.
I had a good day despite the wind and rain. I backed Gosdens maiden in the first on paddock looks alone and also had a little each way on Lanigan’s Niarchos colt who was my eyecatcher of the day –
Summer Dream
. I also backed Gosdens second string in a market without the odds on fav and was almost kicking myself as he looked liked winning til close home. As always I blew out in the handicaps. But a small profit on the course and happy as a pig in poop as Newmarket is my favourite place on Gods earth – when it is not too packed!
Perhaps I have been harsh on the opposition in All Time’s race and I see Varian’s horse has been backed but if the gallops reports are to be believed she should still win.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Disappointing. Cant help feeling Queally would have gone for that gap but no complaints as the winner looks a nice prospect.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Three I like today and only one from Warren Place!
Take the ew 14’s Hills are offering on
Late Telegraph
. Very promising reappearance where he wasnt knocked about and taken a drop in the weights. Very unexposed and should handle the ground being a Montjeu. In form stable – get on.
Earlier at Newmarket one I have always followed since the Greenham last year is
Shropshire
. He is the model of inconsistency this one but on his day he is good and he gets his conditions today. Interesting that Bet365 go 12’s when others go 15-2. A little each way for me.
Finally up at Donny I am a big fan of
Expense Claim
. He is only 13-8 at the moment nut he may well drift as the Gosden horse is already attracting support. Obviously Johnny G’s is well thought of and could be a nice horse but EC has the form in the book and was very expensive when The Three Amigos saw him win at Newbury recently. Was only beaten by what I think is going to be a Group horse lto and I think he will take all the beating. I’ll back him at 13-8 BOG.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
You came up with a nice priced winner for The Master’s Joni, pressure’s on now as TRF’s top golfing tipster
Who do you fancy for the US Open this week?
Joni, what you think about Queally being top jockey at Ascot, 20/1 I believe is quoted?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Hi guys
Let me deal with Queally first – no 20-1 is not interesting me I’m afraid. He will have three or four good rides and will obviously lead for at least one race! But all the other races are so competitive and whilst I hope he picks up another one or two I have a feeling Hughes or O’Brien might have a couple more.
As for the golf I have backed 8 leaving out the favourites:
Kevin Na – 175-1
Carl Petterson – 110-1 (ridiculous price!)
Louis Oouisthuizen – 55-1
Bubba – 45-1
Dustin Johnson – 28-1
Rickie Fowler – 28-1
Jason Duffner – 28-1
Matt Kuchar – 30-1"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Considering that he won last year, McIlroy stands out at 16/1 to me. Ok he has had some shockers recently, but he tends to come alive in the big tournaments and is double the price of Tiger, who, although is resurgent, cannot be trusted 100% quite yet in Majors. Schwartzel would be my idea of an outsider at 50/1 as he’s tasted Major success in recent years.
Considering that he won last year, McIlroy stands out at 16/1 to me. Ok he has had some shockers recently, but he tends to come alive in the big tournaments and is double the price of Tiger, who, although is resurgent, cannot be trusted 100% quite yet in Majors. Schwartzel would be my idea of an outsider at 50/1 as he’s tasted Major success in recent years.
Mentally I am not sure he is quite there at the moment. Blew a winning chance last week and fell apart in last few tournaments. Has the game to win tho obviously.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The golf is a tough call, will the trend continue for ‘new’ major winners? The last 14 majors since Harrington won back to back majors in 2008 have produced a ‘new’ champion.
The course should suit those straight off the tee, which rules out Woods and Mickelson for me, think Woods make no appeal at all at 8/1.
I’ve been backing Lee Westwood for most of the majors the last 2/3 years and have had plenty of place returns and I think this course may suit as for me he’s the best driver in the World, he’s got a new putter and putted alot better last week winning in Sweden by 5 shots, if he can hold a few he’ll win but it is a big IF!!
McIlroy has looked a bit ropey of late but played better last week and 20/1 is too big to ignore.
I’m with you Joni on these last two, Ooesthuizen won The Open by 8 shots and proved this year at The Masters that was no fluke, 60/1 will do for me.
Lastly for me Jason Dufner, went close at The PGA last year and is the form player on the US Tour, 28/1.
The golf is a tough call, will the trend continue for ‘new’ major winners? The last 14 majors since Harrington won back to back majors in 2008 have produced a ‘new’ champion.
The course should suit those straight off the tee, which rules out Woods and Mickelson for me, think Woods make no appeal at all at 8/1.
I’ve been backing Lee Westwood for most of the majors the last 2/3 years and have had plenty of place returns and I think this course may suit as for me he’s the best driver in the World, he’s got a new putter and putted alot better last week winning in Sweden by 5 shots, if he can hold a few he’ll win but it is a big IF!!
McIlroy has looked a bit ropey of late but played better last week and 20/1 is too big to ignore.
I’m with you Joni on these last two, Ooesthuizen won The Open by 8 shots and proved this year at The Masters that was no fluke, 60/1 will do for me.
Lastly for me Jason Dufner, went close at The PGA last year and is the form player on the US Tour, 28/1.
There’s no sport like Golf that requires 10 x more mental Strength than Physical so that rules out the 2nd and 3rd favs ‘Westwood’ and ‘Donald’ straight away! Lee is fast becoming the modern day ‘Montgomery’ the biggest ‘Jibber’ ever to have walked a Golf Course.All 3 guys are numerous tournament winners but when it comes to ‘The Majors’ they bottle it big time! If ‘Tigers’ head is anywhere near how it used to be and there are signs that it is,he’ll win,simple as that! Give me ‘Tiger’ with a 3 shot lead going down the back 9 anyday over the other 3.I’ll have an interest in
Nick Watney
at 120’s as usual.
My picks in golf are below
COTZEE
DUFNER
DONALD
TOMS
OOESTUIZEN
OGILVYI do golf bets on my twitter i do i do quite well.
They are struggling round that course arent they?! Watney off to a good start Gord.
I have had some success on this thread so far this year but one bet that has gone horribly wrong is my win bet on SDS for the jockeys title. I backed him just before the news of the appointment with Godolphin but actually thought that the new job might turn out to be a positive. How wrong I was.
As I write he has gone 67 rides and over 2 weeks without a winner and is way down the list of the top jocks. What’s happened?
Well I think he has been badly let down by Godolphin. He joined as the number 2 to Frankie but then a couple of weeks later was joined by MB. Godolphin told us there would be no pecking order but it is not mapping out like that. MB gets all the top rides (look at the riding plans for RA next week) and SDS is given the dregs. So far this season he has ridden only 4 winners from 32 rides for the operation. Barzelona has had 50 rides and much more high profile ones whilst Frankie has had 76. SDS is clearly the number 3 – not I imagine what he expected.
Worse still he is now missing the decent Mark Johnston runners as he trundles down to Folkestone to ride a single useless Blue nag.
Another thing that hasnt helped Silvestre is the whip rules. I thought last year that SDS had two real attributes. His ability to dictate the pace of a race and his strength in the finish. The second of those has been negated. So far this season he has had 24 winners but has finished second 36 times! In the last two weeks I have counted at least three finishes where he has lost out by a small margin having used up his whip entitlement too early. The whip debate has pretty much ended now but noone seems to have noticed that the last amendment has made absolutely no difference. There is little or no discretion as far as I can see. SDS was banned the other day for going one over the limit on Heavy Metal who was hanging into the camber at Epsom. He still used up those hits too early and rode hands and heels the last 150 yards losing by a squeak.
Anyway my bet is done for and you live and learn but if I were him I would seriously consider going freelance again. He is not getting opportunities, the stable are in woeful form as usual and this seems to be damaging his career more than helping it.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So the big week approaches fast and I thought I would give you a few of my thoughts.
With all the rain around and uncertainty over who will actually be running I am keeping my powder quite dry at the moment but I have had a couple of bets.
We kick off on Tuesday with the Wonderhorse. I will be there of course and I am already twitching in my pants at the thought of it!
My good friend TAPK always says that confidence is king and I have never been more confident about the horse so have had two bets with Coral’s.
To win by 7 lengths or more at 7-2
and
to win by more than 10 lengths at 10-1
.
There is method in my madness. I am pretty sure his only worthwhile opponent will be Excelebration (which is disappointing but we’ll talk about that another day). Strong Suit was doubtful before the rain so I can’t imagine him turning up and SYT is bound for the POW (excuse all the ABV’s!). I am convinced Frankel’s superiority will be greater than ever for two reasons. Firstly this is is his second run of the season and there is a good chance he will have come on for Newbury and secondly I think he will handle the conditions much better than Excel. Now a glance at Excel’s win record would seem to contradict that as he has won 3 from 3 on soft ground including his only Group 1. But if you look at his RPR’s he has actually produced his best form on better ground. Watch the video of his win in France – a race he was really entitled to win – and you will see that it was very workmanlike and he took a while to pick up. I have always thought he was a better 7f horse than mile and I expect to see Frankel pull away in the final furlong to win by a long way.
"But what about Frankel on soft ground?" I hear you cry! Watch the Royal Lodge. Watch his first race. He loves it. He will power through it like a knife through butter (or a predictable carp through a maggot as Gord might say.)
Later on that day The SJP makes little appeal to me. Look at the form figures – it looks a poor race. Power will probably be good enough but I will wait til the day and look at them in the paddock with my mate Her Majesty.
On the second day there are two races I am looking forward to.
I would dearly love Chachamaidee to win the Windsor Forest but on the likely softer ground she will have to go some to beat this
Emulous
at 3-1. This is a mare that has done nothing but improve and she is arguably the best miler for her sex in Europe. A solid Group 1 performer I expect her to defy her penalty. I am also not sure a mile is Chacha’s best trip.
The Prince of Wales would be a cracker if Cirrhus runs but I read this morning he is more likely to run in France. I would have backed him at 5-2 but without him there should be some value as SYT is a short priced fav as usual though heaven knows why. I don’t like Carlton House in this race. People always criticise poor little Frankel for pulling too hard but did you watch the Brigadier Gerard!!!?? Ok it was his first run for a while but Ryan Moore almost had his arms pulled out. Not for me. The one I like and am a big fan of is
Farhh
at 12-1. I backed this one a few weeks ago when he hacked up off a big weight in a handicap and he looked a Group horse that day. Conditions will suit and the 12’s will look bigger if CDA doesnt turn up.
A couple of negatives – I expected him to be slightly bigger in price for one so inexperienced and his stable are completely rubbish this year once again. I havent backed him yet as I want to see if he is entered in anything else but he is definitely one to look out for.
I’ll talk more about the other days when the entries come out but at this stage I like Colour Vision for the GC, Moonlight Cloud for the Diamond Jubilee and SNA for the Hardwicke.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So the big week approaches fast and I thought I would give you a few of my thoughts.
With all the rain around and uncertainty over who will actually be running I am keeping my powder quite dry at the moment but I have had a couple of bets.
We kick off on Tuesday with the Wonderhorse. I will be there of course and I am already twitching in my pants at the thought of it!
My good friend TAPK always says that confidence is king and I have never been more confident about the horse so have had two bets with Coral’s.
To win by 7 lengths or more at 7-2
and
to win by more than 10 lengths at 10-1
.
There is method in my madness. I am pretty sure his only worthwhile opponent will be Excelebration (which is disappointing but we’ll talk about that another day). Strong Suit was doubtful before the rain so I can’t imagine him turning up and SYT is bound for the POW (excuse all the ABV’s!). I am convinced Frankel’s superiority will be greater than ever for two reasons. Firstly this is is his second run of the season and there is a good chance he will have come on for Newbury and secondly I think he will handle the conditions much better than Excel. Now a glance at Excel’s win record would seem to contradict that as he has won 3 from 3 on soft ground including his only Group 1. But if you look at his RPR’s he has actually produced his best form on better ground. Watch the video of his win in France – a race he was really entitled to win – and you will see that it was very workmanlike and he took a while to pick up. I have always thought he was a better 7f horse than mile and I expect to see Frankel pull away in the final furlong to win by a long way.
"But what about Frankel on soft ground?" I hear you cry! Watch the Royal Lodge. Watch his first race. He loves it. He will power through it like a knife through butter (or a predictable carp through a maggot as Gord might say.)
Brilliant thought process Joni. I was thinking about backing Excelebration each way @ 15/2 but that is first two anyway, so you’ve swayed me.
My bets are:
Queen Anne Stakes
20 points @ 10/1 (C) Frankel to win by 10 lengths or more*.
12 points @ 7/2 (C) Frankel to win by 7 lengths or more*.(Sort of Saver)
Betting Without Frankel:
22 points @ 6/4 (B365) ExcelebrationIf Frankel wins by 10 or more lengths and Excelebration finishes 2nd then I
win all three bets
.
If Frankel only wins by between 7 and 9.75 lengths then Ibreak even
even if Excelebration isn’t 2nd. If he is 2nd I
pick that up too
.
If Frankel wins by less than 7 lengths and Excelebration finishes 2ndI break even
.
If for some reason Frankel doesn’t win, it’ll probably be Excelebration who does, in which case Ibreak even
.
As you say Joni, It’s highly likely So You Think will go for the Prince Of Wales and Strong Suit won’t stay a stiffish mile on soft ground, even if he "acts" on it / turns up. Frankel is already a 10 lengths+ better horse than all the rest. It could be a weak affair. It really could be a two horse race, so just Excelebration has to run slightly below form and Frankel wins by a long way. And on soft ground distances are usually extended too. 10/1 and 7/2 look no brainer bets. Many thanks Joni.
Value Is Everything
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