Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › Joni's Poni's – Season 7
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Triptych.
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- May 4, 2018 at 14:18 #1352907
Off to Swanage for a long weekend but a couple of bets before I go.
I am hearing really good things about Mori after her wind op and am hopeful she will prove different class to her rivals tomorrow.
The 1,000 Guineas doesn’t particularly inspire me this year but I think the favourite will win as she is top class and I think Frankie’s horse is a decent ew price.
I think we will see at least 3 classic winners at Newmarket this weekend as Lah Ti Dar runs in the Pretty Polly on Sunday. You probably all know by now that I like to latch on to a horse that I really believe in at the start of every season and Lah Ti Dar is this years lucky/unlucky recipient! She is up against the very promising Frankel filly Qaznya plus a couple of useful Godolphin yardsticks so we should get a better indication of how good she is after this race… There are no prices up yet tough.
Best of luck to everyone especially Jac with her beloved Elarqaam!!
£50 win Mori – 3-1 – Goodwood 2.55 non runner
£80 win Happily – 11-4 – 1,000 Guineas loser
£25ew Altyn Orda – 18-1 – 1,000 Guineas. loser"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 4, 2018 at 22:45 #1352979Good luck Joni and have a great break in Swanage, I have many happy memories of that place thanks to a trip with the Girls Life Brigade when I was 12 years old. We camped out in a Church Hall and I was called into the the Leaders room for making all the girls and the Leaders up apple pie beds
I had to spend the night away from the group on a cold church hall floor with the wind howling through the roof…hope you have more comfy accommodation Joni
…Anyway moving on, good luck with your bets tomorrow I will be cheering home Altyn Orda in the Guineas along with my main choice Laurens and have had a sneeky little each way bet on Vitamin at 50/1 who could spring a surprise.
So excited to see Elarqam I don’t think I will sleep tonight and I keep having dreams of him emulating his dad and being 7 lengths in the lead at The Bushes…as I have already said I doubt that will happen but hope he will quicken as he meets the rising ground and scamper home the winner.
Had to have a saver on the Roaring Lion as I don’t think we saw a true running of The Craven Stakes and he is much much better than that run.I know you will be tuning in wherever you are tomorrow Joni and I’ll give you a wave from the Grandstand as the winner goes shooting by..

Really looking forward to seeing Lah Ti Dar on Sunday and I’ll try my best to get some pictures of herself and the winners of the 2000 and 1000 Guineas.
All the homework is done so all that’s left is to get in an early night and go and bash those bookies tomorrow….Jac
xThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 5, 2018 at 08:49 #1353023I’m in the Elarqam camp also, got 16/1 a few months ago so delighted to see that he’s been supported in the market since. I think he will power ahead of these and then all systems go for the Derby!
May 5, 2018 at 18:17 #1353142Thanks Jac and Joliff – I only watched it on my phone but it looked like Elarqam ran a cracker – getting slightly outpaced before staying on. Like most Frankel’s, he’ll be better over further and could be a live Derby contender. But they’ll all have to go some to beat the Warrior at Epsom. An awesome performance.
Kicking myself having just seen the other results with all those Charlie Appleby winners. I thought about doing a big accumulator last night and talked myself out of it. I won’t make the same mistake for tomorrow…..
£25ew Celestial Spheres – 9-1 – Newmarket 1.50 loser
£25ew Wolf Country – 10-1 – Newmarket 1.50 loser
£50 win Bow Street – 3-1 – Newmarket 5.20 loser
£1ew Lucky 63 the above with Soliloquy, Fly The Nest, Espadrille and Wuheida"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 5, 2018 at 23:55 #1353174Good luck with the boys in blue tomorrow Joni.
Had a fabulous day at HQ such a great atmosphere and lovely to see Elarqam and all the Guineas runners looking so fantastic in the paddock, none better than Saxon Warrior he stood out head and shoulders above the rest, even my Elarqam who ran a brilliant race in 4th I was pleased with his performance and as you say more to come..
Back tomorrow and hoping that Laurens will bring a little sunshine and win the 1000 Guineas, with Altyn Orda and Vitamin filling the places…that will do nicely.
Jac xThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 6, 2018 at 11:17 #1353231Best of luck with that Jac. As much as I’d love to be there, Swanage in the sun is heavenly!!! Interesting reading Mark Johnston’s comments yesterday. It sounded to me like he was pretty irked not to have had the chance to give Elarqam more experience after his win at Newmarket last year. He talked of how easily Elarqam beat the runner-up last year and how Tip To Win had clearly improved for racing having run several times since. You know MJ likes to run his horses but he was well and truly overruled by Sheikh Hamdan. I think we will see a lot more of Elarqam now….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 6, 2018 at 20:33 #1353311Joni, I’m having a few issues with my Fathers health and will have to leave it till last minute in whether or not I’ll be making it to the Lockinge day. Sorry mate
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
May 7, 2018 at 10:11 #1353349So sorry to hear that Nath. I hope he recovers quickly. Of course mate – I’ll wait to hear from you but no pressure x
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 7, 2018 at 11:31 #1353361Sorry to hear about your Dad, Nathan. Hope he gets well soon.
Am no longer a Newbury member and otherwise engaged Lockinge day anyway so can’t make it either.Does Taunton Racecourse have a Fish And Chip shop? (Haven’t forgotten).
Probably be moving down your way in the next year or so.Value Is EverythingMay 7, 2018 at 21:10 #1353403+£1,551.77
Sorry to hear that as well Mark. Do let me know if you ever pop along there as it is just down the road from me.
So a big losing weekend but still positives to take as I find myself now sitting on a 33-1/Even money Derby favourite and a 33-1/7-2 Oaks favourite. With the opposition dropping like flies, at least those two ante-post bets look good for now. The trouble with AP is that it can quickly bite you on the arse though right?!
Lots to learn from the weekend though. Saxon Warrior is clearly very, very smart. I honestly don’t think he is a miler and, whilst MOM could be right that the milers aren’t very good this year, I still think it needed a class horse to win that race. My suspicion is that SW will prove to be one of the best from the last few years and could even be a Triple Crown contender.
Elarqam ran really well but I worry that Frankel will find it very hard to produce Guineas winners. I know he was a bit unlucky to lose Veracious and Without Parole to injury but even so I think there are 2 good reasons why Frankel won’t win many early season Classics. The first reason is that his progeny are not precocious enough. We can see several examples from his first crop of horses who are still developing even at the END of their 3 year old careers let alone at the beginning. I am pretty sure that Elarqam and perhaps even WP and Herculean will eventually be Group 1/Group 2 winners but they are needing time. The second reason is that I don’t think the Frankel’s are going to excel over distances less than 10f. Of course you are going to get the odd exception to the rule but, to me, they are gallopers, not quickeners. They will run through the line for you but they are always going to be vulnerable to horses with a genuine turn of foot over shorter distances. Even Cracksman wouldn’t win if you asked him to sprint two furlongs out off a slow pace.
It was awful to hear about Enable’s setback and I just hope that she will recover in time for the Arc. Her injury and that of Capri does seem to leave a dearth of talent amongst the older middle-distance horses (Cracksman excluded of course). I wonder if JG will have a change of heart now and send Cracksman to the Coronation? If not it looks like the field has opened up for that race. Otherwise it would seem that Cracksman can just pick and choose what he wants to win before the Arc. For me, Cloth of Stars was the next best after Enable and he was readily dismissed at Longchamps. Capri had the potential to improve this year but, with him out, I’m not sure where else to look. Hawkbill can win big races if he gets an easy lead and Hydrangea could win anything on softish ground. Perhaps Defoe could emerge as a genuine Group 1 contender. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up being added to the Coronation field after this weekend.
Anyway, lots to think about. I love the next couple of weeks as the Derby and Oaks trials get under way. Hopefully we’ll get back on the winning trail soon….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 7, 2018 at 22:51 #1353421Hope so Joni..although I do think Elarqam would have won if he had had more races under his belt, or at least given Saxon Warrior a bit of a fright
A lot of people were supporting him on Saturday at HQ which was nice to hear as it means that they truly believe Sir Henry’s legacy lives on in the progeny of their favourite son .. FRANKEL
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 8, 2018 at 08:03 #1353440It’s of course my main reason for being such a massive Frankel fan Jac: the legend that was Sir Henry – such a significant part of my life and he lives on in the sons and daughters of the greatest horse he ever trained.
I take no credit if the following horse wins. Steve Caution has pointed out that Kew Gardens stated aim is the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday. As Steve says, he is a very big price right now for a horse that will surely take a lot of beating if returning to the sort of form he showed last year. His first outing this season was a bit of a non-event over a distance shorter than ideal and given a very tender ride by Ryan.
£50 win Kew Gardens – 6-1 – Lingfield Derby Trial loser
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 8, 2018 at 08:12 #1353441And another for today. I’d be disappointed if the highly regarded Study Of Man gets beat.
£80 win Study Of Man – 11-8 – St Cloud 1.35 winner"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 8, 2018 at 12:42 #1353458A couple more early bets for this week at one of favourite meetings of the year – Chester.
Tomorrow I fancy Aiden’s Hunting Horn to go close over a longer distance than last time. He was a real eye catcher at Sandown behind Sevenna Star and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes this en route to Epsom.
On Thursday I see that Rostropovich is a huge price for the Dee Stakes. I love 8 runner races and 20-1 is a big price for a Group 2 winner who will surely share better for his first outing and could well improve for the better ground and step up in trip. Well worth a dabble at the prices anyway.
£50ew Hunting Horn – 4-1 – Chester 3.35 tomorrow placed
£25ew Rostropovich – 20-1 – Chester 2.25 Thursday winner"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 8, 2018 at 13:35 #1353460Joni, not sure if RP are slow or not, but with no jockey bookings in the Dee Stakes yet, Kenya being 3-1 you’d have thought he was Moore’s pick. Interestingly though, he’s never ridden Kenya and has ridden your selection the last 3 times…..your 20/1 might not look terrible if he ignores the market prices..
Personally don’t think AOB’s chester runners this year look up to much!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 8, 2018 at 13:42 #1353461Hi Jack – yes I’m sure Ryan will ride Kenya but those prices are still crazy. I mean that Johnston horse is shorter than Rostropovich and he is just a handicapper!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
May 8, 2018 at 13:48 #1353463Joni, he’s on Rostropovich lol!
snuck a bit of 20s there…..
For all of that i think haggas and dascombes will be the first two.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it! - AuthorPosts
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