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No joy yesterday but going for a couple of heavy ground specialists in France today. Chilean is very well regarded at home and will love conditions. The same should apply to the race fit Air Pilot whose record on ground softer than good is excellent.
£25ew Chilean – 17-4 (Laddies price boost)- Longchamps 2.45 winner
£25ew Air Pilot – 5-1 (LPB) – Longchamps 3.20 winner
£10ew double"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
+£636.63
Bang Bang!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks guys. Nice to get a few quid in the bank at the start of the season. I do think there is sometimes money to be made when the ground is heavy as so few flat horses really like it so when you find one or two who DO it’s worth getting stuck in. Had fun with Bateel last year on similar ground.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Great double Joni!
As far as Cloth Of Stars goes: I agree he did particularly well considering he pulled hard (best horse in the race). But a little worrying it’s a return to his bad three year old days. Improvment last season came when becoming more relaxed. Hopefully hold up tactics will help.
I backed Hawkbill purely because of the expected run-of-the-race. Got a soft lead and kicked for home – flattered. Poet’s Word did as well as could be expected in those circumstances. Hasn’t really gone on since the Irish Champion second, but suspect he’ll do better this year given a stronger run race and/or over further. King George?
Mendelsshon undoubtedly an impressive top class performance, although tricky to put an exact rating on it. Gold Town and (to a lesser extent) Rayya disappointing and such a dirt rail bias at Meydan. Rail appearing faster ground this year than previously. Kentucky Derby chance depends on speed out of the gate – getting a prominent position out of the kick back and how he reacts to being taken on.
Benbatl hasn’t got many miles on the clock and with a fine turn of foot – if Bin Surroor has a better European season may well improve in to a top notcher. Thought Jungle Cat will struggle against the best; won what turned out to be (without Blue Point) a poor sprint. Lucky ol’ Joni.
Value Is EverythingThanks for the nice words Mark and NWalton!
So it should really hot up next week but just one bet for tomorrow. I am convinced Nelson will have a good season I believe he should be favourite for the Ballysax. The Pentagon ran very poorly on soft ground last year and his action doesn’t suggest he will handle it. The same can be said of Delano Roosevelt but most Frankel’s don’t mind it and Nelson looks the type to go well on it and is clearly going to come in to his own over a trip this season. He is a confident selection.
£150 win Nelson – 5-2 – Leopardstown 3.50 winner
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
+£1,011.36
Thanks HB! Nice to get over the thousand mark before the Craven meeting. I’ve finally worked out that it is best to be selective at the start of a season. Quality over quantity! Nelson did it well and with the news that Amadeo Modigliani is likely to miss the Derby, he would start to come into the picture. We know he will stay and he has a great attitude. He seems very well balanced and so probably won’t mind Epsom. A live contender anyway..
I’m kicking myself a little over not backing Gustav Klint for the Guineas as I thought he would end up being the no.1 from Ballydoyle and yesterday did nothing to dissuade me – winning on bad ground against a race-fit horse on his first run in yonks. I think he’ll take all the beating at Newmarket.
I see that Clemmie has also had a setback which would make the 1,000 Guineas wide open I’d say.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
An interesting weekend with some classic clues and a few bits of important news. Aiden seems to have lost 2 of his brightest hopes for the 1,000 Guineas and the Derby with the news that Clemmie and Amadeo Modigliani will probably not run. If Clemmie doesn’t run then I think it makes the Guineas very wide open as nothing really came out of the trial in France today and so I am taking a big price about Veracious before she runs in the Nell Gwynn on Wednesday. 16-1 could look quite big in a few days time….
£50ew Veracious – 16-1 – 1,000 Guineas loser
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Joni, you are absolutely right about being extremely selective with your bets!
Even if there will be any chance about Clemmmie still running, no matter what the “maestro” says, I will never do this again! Betting a few days before or preferably on the same day will be the way to go for me now, no more long term AP bullshit! But for now I’m not gonna bother you with this tough stuff any more!
As I read between your lines, you see Veracious as a penalty kick, right?
Maybe even Kew Gardens will be one, what would you think?I’d hardly call it a penalty kick HB! I think Aiden probably has the winner there somewhere but it’s possible that something will emerge from the trials this week and there’s a good chance it could be Veracious. Her form has worked out well with the 2nd from her race in Newmarket winning races out in Dubai. My favourite O’ Brien filly is September and she could be good enough to win this Guineas if her stablemate doesn’t run but reading Aiden today in his stable tour he thinks she might be more of an Oaks filly so 7-1 doesn’t really do it for me.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Joni a bit late but wish you good luck this season
Any darkhorses from Gosden either unraced or maidens or maiden winners waiting to see mine below
CORELLI
CROSSED BATON
PHOTOGRAPHER
WITHOUT PAROLEAm sure there be more to come from yard to
Thanks Darren – will have a think and get back to you. I’m a bit disappointed that Veracious isn’t running on Wednesday but interestingly she has shortened to 10’s for the Guineas anyway so hopefully there’s nothing wrong and she is just going straight to the race.
I have 1 bet for tomorrow. Kew Gardens is a horse I like and I think Ryan will ride him aggressively and he’ll be hard to pass.
£150 win Kew Gardens – 15-8 – 4.45 Newmarket loser
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Bit surprised you haven’t gone for Mildenburger here with Nelson winning at the weekend – the Royal Lodge form could look rock solid should Roaring Lion prevail in the Craven too! Both KG and Mildenburger are front runners as is Stage Mahic so could take each other on and set it up for Msayyan or even Dark Acclaim…
Well of course Nelson has form with both KG and Mildenberger. On a strict line you’d go with Mildenberger but I think KG improved as the season went on. You’re right that there are a few front runners though. Ryan will need to have his wits about him.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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