Joni's Poni's – Season 7

[Jonibake]

Yeeeeeeeeeeehiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!

Soooooo excited to be back with a brand spanking new flat season and so much to look forward to. I think it’s going to be an amazing year and obviously I’ll be looking to spank the bookies once more!! Would be great to hear from all my fantastic DLAP friends and, as always, ALL contributions are welcomed.

I have a couple of AP bets coming over from Season 6 and my Derby position is looking good with decent prices about Saxon Warrior and Amadeo Modigliani as well as Nelson. I’d be disappointed if I didn’t have the winner from one of those three.

Elsewhere I am obviously hoping that Frankel can have a classic winner this year and he’ll have plenty of shots at it but I still don’t think it will be easy. Perhaps Elarqaam is his best chance and he has certainly been well supported in the last couple of months since being “pricewised” but I read that connections think he will be better over slightly further. It certainly looks a wide-open Guineas and I don’t have a strong view at the moment except that Expert Eye is a massive price IF you can ignore that last run. It’s a bit “IF” though isn’t it? I’m not convinced SW or Roaring Lion are milers and would prefer Gustav Klint from the Coolmore team. The 1,000 is Clemmie’s to lose but not interested in such short prices. The Derby I have mentioned and I like September in the Oaks and have just had a little dabble this morning.

Frankel has so many good horses to look forward to. Amongst the older ones there is obviously Cracksman and Eminent but look out also for Mirage Dancer, Finche, Monarch’s Glen, Aljazeera, Goldrush and UAE King who could all be running in Group races.

There are any amount of 3 year olds with huge potential but if I had to name 5 they would be Elarqaam, Herculean, Veracious, Nelson and Contigent who could be an Oaks filly. Time will tell but so much to look forward to.

I always like to start at Meydan and this year is no different. Work has been crackers busy but I have been able to see a few races from there and have been reading the excellent thread on Big Races Discussion and watching my fellow TRF’ers make hay! I have had a few small bets for Saturday.

In the Gold Cup I fancy Ryan Moore to provide a tactical masterclass on Dal Harraild. I have a feeling we haven’t seen the best of this horse yet and that he will come into his own over longer distances. He is drawn on the inside and I think Ryan will try and make all and burn them off.

In the UAE Derby I am with Steve Caution in fancying Rayya. She has had some mighty battles with the very nice Goldolphin filly this winter and she came out easily on top last time over this longer trip. Again she is drawn on the inside and will surely attempt to make all. I see her skipping clear as they enter the straight and they’ll have to go to catch her.

Jungle Cat has always been a favourite of mine and he has had his best ever winter this year over 6 and 7f. He will have to go some to beat the fav but he is nailed on for at least a place.

I am a big fan of Cloth Of Stars but his price is a bit skinny and I think he may have his work cut out to beat the Japanese machine Rey De Oro. I’ve seen him win a couple of times and he is a proper Group 1 horse.

Finally I have backed two in the Turf. Johnny G would surely not have sent Monarch’s Glen over if he didn’t think he stood a decent chance. He knows how to prepare a horse to win first time out over there as we saw with Jack Hobbs and I don’t think we have seen the best of Monarch’s yet. Whether he is a Group 1 horse is debatable but he is a nice price to find out. But Benbatl is the one to beat here. He ran consistently well in top company last year and he can be forgiven his last run.

All in all it should be a great night of racing and hopefully will get me off to a winning start. Bring it on!!!!

£25ew Rayya – 10-1 – UAE Derby placed
£25ew Dal Harraild – 10-1 – Gold Cup lost
£25ew Jungle Cat – 5-1 – Sprint winner
£50 win Benbatl – 7-2 – Turf winner
£25ew Monarch’s Glen – 12-1 – Turf lost
£50 win Rey De Oro – 4-1 – Sheema lost
£1ew Lucky 62 (-£46.31)
£50ew September – 10-1 – Oaks

Already advised:
£50 win Nelson – 33-1 – Derby
£50 win Saxon Warrior – 33-1 – Derby
£50 win Amadeo Modigliani – 25-1 – Derby

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Nathan Hughes]

Best of luck Joni, always a great thread
I won’t be embarrassing myself this year with a thread of my own but will pop in here from time to time with my thoughts.
I’m on Clemmie at 33’s down and with plenty of multi’s running on to her so cheer her on for me.
I think Rossa Ryan barring any kind of injury is nailed on for the apprentice title, he’s only 3/1 but I was expecting shorter, he’ll be giving SDS a run for his money in a few years time…
I’ve also chipped away at the 20’s on O’Brien to take both Guineas, Oaks, Derby and Leger our old friend TAPK put that one in my direction and it has a sporting chance although something usually creeps out of Gosden’s yard from nowhere with that touch of late maturity leger stamped over it.

Charles Darwin to conquer the World

[nwalton]

good luck joni always a great read throughout the season

[Jonibake]

Thanks guys and yes Nath – Aiden will probably do that sooner or later. No reason why it can’t be sooner…. I think the 2,000 will be the hardest for him to win.

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Triptych]

Great to have you back Joni and only two weeks to go to the Craven Meeting but first I have to get some money from the bookies in the bank to pay for my daughter’s wedding on the 15th April..day after the Grand National and two days before I go to Newmarket, hectic times ahead.

Good luck with your Meydan picks I’m definitely with you on Jungle Cat and Monarch’s Glen, would love them both to win but my biggest wish of the meeting would be to see Frontiersman win the Gold Cup and I really think he can do it now he has had his eye problem sorted, loved his ding dong battle with Hawkbill last time out which reminded me of his mum and Alexander Goldrun in the Nassau.
Hawkbill is another I will be cheering home tomorrow

Elaquam and Roaring Lion are the two I am most looking forward to seeing this season and of course my favourite Eminent and Cracksman. I have my reservations about Expert Eye and will probably be taking him on this season, that said he’ll probabaly turn out and win all before him..LOL

Let’s hope we have a great season Joni, Nathan and all and look forward to seeing you hanging around the paddock at Newmarket sometime soon .. Jac x

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[Jonibake]

Thanks Jac. Now be honest – which are you most excited by? The wedding or The Craven meeting?!!! :) Hope to see you there (at the Craven I mean) xxx

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[stevecaution]

Good luck with this year’s thread Joni.

Was Saxon Warrior 50/1 for the Derby?

I backed him very shortly after his maiden win and only got 33/1

I was surprised to hear Aiden say that Amedeo Modigliani is not certain to get a mile and a quarter. He said they will start him in a Derby trial but may drop him back in trip. He feels the horse shapes like speed may be his forte.

We’ll learn a lot in April and May for sure.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Jonibake]

Thanks Stevie – you are right he was never 50’s. I genuinely don’t know how i have typed that as my thread last year shows that I backed him at 33’s. All those 50’s in the bets I suppose! I’ve amended.

I read that from Aiden about AM as well. Definitely a concern especially as his mother never won over further than 7f so stamina will be called into question. I seem to often find a decent one and then back it for the wrong race! Still as you say we will learn a lot more in the next month or two and I have a feeling AM could be his best colt – just not sure at which trip!

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[botchy1]

Good luck Joni

[Triptych]

If I’m honest I’m looking forward to both Joni, but especially excited to see my daughter Louise walk down the aisle after fighting off Leukaemia twice at 2 years old and 5 when it returned..very proud of her and never dared dream we would see this day so rain or shine the flat will be off to a brilliant start and she’ll be honeymooning in Rome while I cheer on some new season hopefuls at the Craven..look forward to seeing you again Joni at our second home.(I’ll bring you
a piece of cake) xxx Jac

Good luck at Meydan tomorrow The Meydan Thursday Thread has helped get all is flat fans through the NH season this year, we’ve found quite a few winners between us and tomorrow is the day that Champions will be crowned.

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[Jonibake]

Wow Jac. Louise sounds an incredible person. All the best to her and you for the 15th and I hope to see you on the Thursday of the Craven meeting for some of that cake!! xxx Thanks Botchy – looking forward to hearing your views as the season progresses.

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[wasps41]

Let’s get ready to rumble…
Here comes the ledge…….the forum ledge……….holder of the WBO, WBA IBF belts in tipping, the greatest tipster in the wooooooorrrrrlllld…..

Good luck Joni

[Jonibake]

Hahaha!! Brilliant Wasps! Thank you!!!

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Gingertipster]

Great to see you back, Joni.
You’ve started in the usual way with Jungle Cat and Benbatl.

Value Is Everything

[Jonibake]

+£127.13

Thanks Mark. Good to get off to a profitable start. A really good night of racing. Mendelssohn was seriously impressive wasn’t he?! Did we see the Kentucky Derby winner? It will take a good one to beat him. Benbatl showed his class and hopefully he will be a major player in the UK this summer. Jungle Cat obviously benefited hugely from the withdrawal of the favourite but he battled on gamely. Monarch’s Glen was disappointing and perhaps he has had his sights set too high too early. For me the horse to take from tonight was Cloth Of Stars. There is no way he should have finished so close considering how much he pulled. I think he was the best horse in that race and will be one to watch in the major 12f races this year.

I doubt there’ll be much for me this week as we are away in France but I’ll be looking forward to Naas next Sunday and then Newmarket and Newbury when things REALLY get interesting…!!

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Triptych]

Well done Joni, off to a flyer, Benbatl and Jungle Cat

I gave my bookie a bashing too with 4 winners as on the Meydan Thursday Thread and although Monarch’s Glen couldn’t do it for us, seeing Hawkbill win really made my day. See you on the Rowley Mile. Jac x

Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...

[Jonibake]

£50 ew La Figlia – 11-2 – Kempton Saturday – lost

"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

[Author]

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