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Yeeeeehiiiiiii!!!
Sooooooo excited about the new season and hoping to deliver a profit again this year. There is so much to look forward to not least the first of the Frankel 2 year olds strutting their stuff on the racetrack. It has been a long and very impatient wait for me since that last day at Ascot on 20th October 2012 and I am just hoping that he can transfer some of his brilliance to his offspring. I am very confident he will but “time will tell” as his beloved trainer was fond of saying. I have been scouring newspapers and websites looking for any news on how they might be going on the gallops but nothing of note yet. Rest assured I will try to be the first to know!
Apart from Frankel I will be closely following up and coming trainers like Hugo Palmer and George Scott (who I have a feeling will be good) as well as old favourites like the brilliant and much loved (by me at least) Johnny G.
I love doing this blog as it forces me to be disciplined. In my earlier, wilder days I would generally bet on anything and everything but nowadays I only bet what I put up on here and I CERTAINLY don’t want to make myself look an idiot by putting up silly bets. So it will all be about quality again – mainly stakes races or the odd group horse in a handicap or the odd maiden if I have heard anything positive. Looking at past years, I have often struggled at the beginning and ends of seasons so I will be more circumspect then. Last year I was £1,000 down until Royal Ascot and then went on a great run before plateauing around about the Ebor meeting in August so sensible betting at the start is called for while we work out which trainers are worth following.
As usual any contributions are more than welcome. I have always said that I love the almost family feel that DLAP’s has so hopefully some of you are still out there and will post your thoughts. Unfortunately I am away with work a lot this Summer but will try and keep a close eye on everything wherever I am.
Regular readers will know I always start off with World Cup night at Meydan. I have had some great results here in the past and there are 3 races that interest me this year.
The Sprint is wide-open as you would expect but one horse I think is over-priced is Jungle Cat at 20-1. I first saw this one run last year at Newbury with Nath and he ran really well behind Adaay who went on to be very good. He then flopped next time out at Ascot but has bounced back this winter in Dubai and only went down narrowly last time out, finishing in front of Sole Power who is 6-1 for this race – go figure?!!! Unlike in the UK, I like backing Charlie Appleby and SBS horses out in Dubai at this time of year because you really feel like they are targeting their horses for these races. Their owner is the boss of the whole Meydan operation and it is all about having winners on World Cup night whereas perhaps other trainers have the whole season ahead in mind. So the improving Jungle Cat will do for me at small stakes.
I have 4 horses that I like in the Dubai Turf so I have had to pick 2. I like but have discarded Tryster and Euro Charlene. Tryster could just be different class and he certainly has a fantastic turn of foot but this will be by far his hardest test to date and his hold-up style is dangerous in a race of this quality. Saying that there is likely to be a lot of pace in this race and he might just pick them all off. But his price is unappealing to me. I have kept backing Euro Charlene since I saw her beat Kiyoshi a couple of seasons ago and I am convinced there is a big race in her. But she seems to always find a way of getting beat. She is not the easiest ride as she doesn’t always settle and I would prefer to wait until she races against her own sex again. So I have gone for Intilaaq and Very Special. Intilaaq is a very exciting prospect. He looked a million dollars that day at Newbury but then they rushed him a bit to run in the Guineas where he flopped. He has been brilliant since that day though and could be the one to profit from the withdrawal of Solow. It is his first run of the season which isn’t ideal but I don’t think his astute trainer would send him all this way if he didn’t think he had a good chance. He could easily have started in him something like the Earl of Sefton so the fact that he is here speaks volumes I think. Very Special has looked exactly that this year and I think she is a big improver. Again I like the jockey/trainer combo and I think she is a big price. My only worry is that her improved form has coincided with a change of tactics and she might not get her way out front as she has done the last twice. However at 14’s I am prepared to that chance.
Finally in the Sheema Classic I have backed Highland Reel at 4’s. He has to be rock solid each way value this horse as his form at least matches that of the favourite and his beating of Flintshire last time out reads very well. To be honest I see it being between him and Postponed but I can’t quite work out why one is 6-4 and the other is 4-1. They both beat Daryian by 3 lengths last time and Aiden knows how to prepare them for this meeting. Ryan Moore is very confident and that will do for me.
So:
£25ew Jungle Cat – 20-1 – Al Quok Sprint loser
£35ew Very Special – 16-1 – Dubai Turf loser
£100 win Intilaaq – 5-2 – Dubai Turf loser
£200ew Highland Reel – 4-1 – Sheema Classic loser
£2ew patent the above"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Great to see you back Joni.
People are finally catching on to how good Hugo is, hopefully the value will still be there.Looking forward to reading your knowledeable views.
Value Is EverythingThanks for the messages guys!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Best of luck Joni.
I’m all over Ertijaal in the sprint, seems a new rejuvenated horse at the distance, travels with pace and stays on.
I’ll start up my own flat thread soon to keep you company.
Looks like a lot of interest on the forum for the Lockinge, so hopefully the sun shines.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Its that time of year again when Joni awakes from his Winter slumber always putting up a few pounds overweight.I too am always pleased to see you back at the same time Johnny G’s Lincoln runner/Non runners burning up the gallops.You have done this thread for a few years now and never failed to deliver but you know aswell as I that the pressure to achieve is constantly hanging over you.I know if you use your last 4 threads to reference from you will succeed as year on year you acknowledge your ‘weaknesses'(I use the word lightly) as you have few but you know what I mean and you address them.If I was to use my legendary Foresight I wouldn’t offer bigger than Evens you dont break the magical £10k profit for a season…..an achievement very rarely done on here!
Good luck pal and hope to see you soon.Thanks for the vote of confidence and the analogy Gord. A few pounds overweight – love it. And Nath – cheers mate! Yes hope to see you both at Newbury.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
-£676
Not the best start to say the least but losing is ok if you can learn lessons from it. Jungle Cat ran a stormer to finish 4th but was drawn away from the main action and I am sure would have gone closer if he had been able to race with the others. Very Special was probably forced to go that little bit too quickly and faded late home. I was right to oppose the fav but I almost had a heart attack when I saw my old friend Euro Charline challenging down the outer – that would have killed me! – but at least it shows I was right about her and there is a big race to be won. Intilaaq was disappointing. Could have been early season cobwebs or perhaps he is not up to that class. Postponed will be a tough nut to crack this season. He won that well and I see him winning the Coronation Stakes on route to the King George. Highland Reel’s run shows that Aiden’s are probably in need of a run as there were no excuses. So we have a bit of ground to make up but, to continue Gord’s analogy, we will strip fitter next time!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So mainly a watching brief today but I am a believer in following trainers in for at the start of the season so I have had a small interest in two of William Haggas today. The reports are that Newmarket horses are quite forward for this time of year as they got much less rain there than anywhere else and so the grass gallops were open very early. WH has won with his last three and he has two good chances today.
In the opener at Donny he has Predominance who did nothing wrong last year and looks sure to improve as a 4 year old. All his runs were on soft which he clearly handles and I think he will go close. At Kempton I fancy his Tutu Nguru in what looks a fascinating race. You could make a case for all four runners but I like the fact that mine has had a race and should come here fit and ready. I have reversed a forecast with the Godolphin runner who won well first time out. I am just a bit wary of SBS horses before May which is why he isn’t the selection. The fav has the form in the book but the stable are a bit out of form and this one may need the run. Same comments apply for Zest who is James Fanshawe’s first runner for a while but who does at least hold a Guineas entry.
£30ew Predominance – 2.15 Doncaster loser
£30 win Tutu Nguru – 3.35 Kempton loser
£15 ew double
£15 rev f/c Tutu Nguru and Quality Timeoooh – meant to say – watching Dundalk last night was ominous………AOB has them running well already………!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
-£826
Hoping to get on the winning trail today with one of Gosden’s. Predilection is supposed to be one of his better three year olds and has been working well. He has looked very professional in both his runs so far and should go close.
£50win Predilection – 5-2 – 4.15 Lingfield
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Good Luck Joni great to see you back.
Looking forward to being at Newmarket next week for the Craven Meeting.
Fielden Stakes on Tuesday and the Nell Gwynn, should get a few pointers there.
Jac Looking out for Fashaak in the 4.50 Ling today, highly tried last season but
this should be easier.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Hi Jac! Good to hear from you. Yes very exciting – the season really starts this week doesn’t it? I may be going tomorrow…..
Today I have had bets in two races. I have heard positive reports about Mengli Khan and he will love the bit of give underfoot. The Gosden colt could be good but I hear he is quite tall and rangy which doesn’t always bode well at Newmarket. I have also had a little bit on Chris Wall’s Mix and Mingle in the Nell Gwyn. She is supposed to be Chris’s best horse for some time and I hope she will run well at a nice price. I see she has been backed this morning. I have also backed the fav as I know JG thinks highly of her.
£80 win Mengli Khan – 4-1 3.55 Newmarket loser
£80 win Nathra – 15-8 4.30 Newmarket winner
£25ew Mix and Mingle – 14-1 4.30 Newmarket loser"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
-£806
So finally off the mark yesterday with the impressive winner of the Nell Gwynn. Interesting to hear Frankie say after that she would struggle to make up the ground on Minding. I reckon she’ll be off to France. Mix and Mingle ran an absolute cracker and a stronger jockey would have got her home 3rd rather than get pipped on the line. The Newmarket stables are going well with Gosden and Stoute in particular making fast starts. Bodes very well for Sir Michael as he is often a slow starter.
I will be going today and can’t wait. I think of it as my home from home. The second I walk through the gates I think of my Granddad and all the wonderful days we had there when I was a child. It really is a magical place for me.
There is a mixture of maidens and group races with small fields so I’ll probably be doing most of my betting having seen them in the paddock, but I have had 3 small bets before leaving.
Copper Knight is Hugo Palmer’s first 2 year old of the season and he is apparently ready to do himself justice. The sire has got off to a cracking start and they expect this one to go well. Obviously the favourite looked special the other day and will probably win but that WAS on the all weather and conditions will be very different today. 11-1 is a nice each way price anyway.
I have always been a fan of Dutch Connection. I was worried about the ground but it has already changed to Good to Soft and I think by the time he runs it may even be good as it dries very quickly at Newmarket. It is a funny looking race with a couple who might be better off over further and a question mark over mine that he will get the trip. He will certainly be the fastest so I am hoping that the lack of an obvious trail blazer might make it tactical. Anyway I am fairly sure he is the best horse in the race and is certain to finish in the 3.
Finally I am using the fact that Frankie is normally useless at picking the right horse when he has the option. Remember the 14-1 we got about Shalaa last year? Well in the 5.05 Johnny G runs two and Wings of Desire, a full brother to Eagle Top, is apparently highly regarded. We are guessing a bit here but I like 8-1 about a well regarded sort from a stable in top form.
£25ew Copper Knight – 11-1 2.45 Newmarket loser
£50ew Dutch Connection – 5-1 4.30 Newmarket non runner
£25ew Wings of Desire – 8-1 5.05 Newmarket placed 14-1
£5ew patent"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Some nice sorts for the Wood Ditton. I like JG’s Heart of Lions
£15ew Heart of Lions sp loser
£2 comb f/c 3,5,6"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
2nd,3rd and 4th!! Sutter County is enormous!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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