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So some interesting moves taking place in the Derby market today. Kingsbarns is drifting like a barge and the likes of Mars, Telescope and Battle of Marengo are attracting support.
Of these and at the prices I really like
Battle of Marengo
. He improved with every race last year despite running on ground that he mostly didn’t like. He will be running in the Ballysax on Sunday and will shorten a lot if he wins.
He is beautifully bred and the Derby has always been the plan as he is almost certain to stay.
One or two bookies are still offering 16’s including Betfred so I will have some ew action.
£50ew – Battle Of Marengo 16-1 – Derby
Got to be pleased with that today. Very workmanlike but desperate ground and showed a good attitude giving 5lbs away as well. Has to be a major player as will get the distance and should improve for better ground.
Feeling a bit gutted as did an O’Brien treble today with this one, Dec of War and the 2 year old in the first who was delivered too late!!!
You have got the price at least Joni,I was pleased with
Battle of Marengo
myself but come Derby day just as your fellow is running out of puff my
Trading Leather
will be just getting into top gear! 42’s on the machine is just tooo big about my fellow now!
When a creature of habit suddenly breaks from those habits it is always worth speculating on the reasons.
Sir Henry is a creature of habit. Being a fan of his for over 35 years I have got to become pretty good at predicting where he will be sending his good horses. Occassionally he surprises me and does something completely unexpected.
When Frankel outstayed Nathaniel in his maiden over a mile on soft ground I immediately thought that would be his minimum trip. I was shocked when he chose a 7f conditions race for his next assignment.
When Jacqueline Quest finished down the field in the Nell Gywn I was amazed to see her line up in the Guineas.
He has done something similar this week.
When
Hot Snap
won her maiden at the back end of last year over a mile at Kempton, being a half sister to Oaks runner up Midday, I naturally assumed she would be aimed at 10f race on route to a trial and possible tilt at the Oaks. The reports over the "Spring" have been very good and Cecil himself has mentioned her several times as the horse to look out for this year. Shane "Frankel" Featherstonehaugh is her work rider and she is supposedly very useful. I bagged the 25’s about her for the Oaks a long time ago.
Now I see she is entered for the 7f Nell Gwyn on Wednesday. Three bookies have priced it up and Bet365 go 12’s but Billy’s go 20’s. Cecil is not a man to throw a horse of her potential into a race like that just for the sake of it. She is clearly showings bags of speed at home and I think it might be worth a speculative ew not only on the Nell Gwyn but the Guineas as well for which she is a general 40-1 shot. Apart from anything else I couldn’t forgive myself if she ran really well on Wednesday and I wasn’t on beforehand but I also happen to think last years 2 year old fillies were a poor batch and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an unexposed type like Moth or Hot Snap overtake them all this year.
I will also be keeping my eye out for Thursday when he has Kylacchy Rise entered in the Craven. This would be even more surprising given that he is still a maiden. It is virtually unheard of for Cecil to pitch a once raced maiden into a race like that so let’s see if he is declared tomorrow. You can get 50’s about him for the Guineas and again he is reported to be a very classy worker. I’ll stick to my Hot Snap’s for now though!
£25ew Hot Snap – 20-1 Nell Gwyn
£25ew Hot Snap – 40-1 1,000 GuineasBTW for anyone interested in betting points I take £25 to be 1 point.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
So all flat fans know that to all intents and purposes the season really starts tomorrow at the Craven meeting. I love the next 4 days but unfortunately this year find myself stuck working in Geneva so can’t be at Newmarket or Newbury to see any of it.
Still, looking at tomorrow’s cards there are 3 races that interest me.
The Nell Gwyn looks a devilishly difficult race to work out but I am happy with my 20-1 ew on
Hot Snap
as she is now mainly 12’s. Reading Cecil’s website tonight he expects her to run well so I am hopeful of at least a place. As I said I am not convinced that last years top 2 year old fillies were up to much. There was so much bad weather and bad ground around that I think you may see form turned on its head now that the ground is drying.
I always like the Fielden Stakes and this year it has the added spice of an Andre Fabre runner in Intello. Beautifully bred and unbeaten in two starts, he must have a great chance – Fabre would not send him over otherwise. Do we really want to back him at 2-1 though? Not for me but i expect him to win.
Then there is the maiden that follows. My mate Cecil runs two and I am most interested in the apparent second string
Morpheus
. I saw him at Nottingham at the back end last year with Gord and we both agreed he was a real looker. He got stuck in the mud though and I think you can discount that run. Teddy said that Tom has chosen Demonic because he was slightly quicker to come to hand but that they were disappointed the race has not divided up. My guess is there is not much between them. Now I have said many times that Tom is especially gentle on Cecil horses first time out so I am not too worried that he rides the other one. Unfortunately it is not priced up yet but the betting forecasts suggest he could be as big as 14-1. If he is, I might have a small ew. Will try and post it first thing tomorrow if the odds are printed before I start work.
As soon as I get back to my room I will watch the replays on RPTV and I really cannot wait. Bring it on!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
What’s your job Joni? I wouldn’t mind working in Geneva, beautiful city!
Whilst I respect connections Hot Snap has an awful lot to find, but 20/1 is a bit price given the apparent regard she’s held in. I can’t see Sky Lantern being beaten to be honest, 3/1 is good enough for me.
One I quite like tomorrow is Split Rock, who stormed home at Southwell on his debut. I think he can make the switch to turf and the Shaardal colt could be one to follow.
What’s your job Joni? I wouldn’t mind working in Geneva, beautiful city!
He’s one a those Consultant sorts rich,that teaches you how to talk properly at public functions,he chucks a few big words in to confuse you then tells you how much you sound like John Major…….Well thats what the Cheeky B*stard said to me after 5 minutes of meeting him!
What’s your job Joni? I wouldn’t mind working in Geneva, beautiful city!
He’s one a those Consultant sorts rich,that teaches you how to talk properly at public functions,he chucks a few big words in to confuse you then tells you how much you sound like John Major…….Well thats what the Cheeky B*stard said to me after 5 minutes of meeting him!
Yes Gord – big words like "twat", "knob" and "tit".
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Yes Rich it is a beautiful city but I don’t get much chance to appreciate it when I am here as it is all work and no play! Gord is sort of right really – I am a communications coach. http://www.speakthespeech.co.uk if you are interested!
Just seen that Morpheus can be backed at 12’s so will have a little bit of fun at that price.
£25 ew Morpheus – 5.15 Newmarket
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
£25ew Hot Snap – 20-1 Nell Gwyn
£25ew Hot Snap – 40-1 1,000 GuineasGood luck with the column this season Joni.
I really feel Hot Snap has a lot to prove today. Obviously the connections mean she must command some respect but dropping back in trip today after a mile win at Kempton in a three grand maiden and tackling horses with form in group races would look suicidal for the average trainer. 20/1 is a price for a dabble I suppose but she is as low as 9/1 now, only one point bigger than Winning Express is after being second in the Cheveley Park to the unbeaten Rodshu Queen who had more toe that day. If Winning Express has trained on OK I can see her being suited by today’s trip and I’d be fairly confident she will place and reward an each-way bet.
Winning Express 8/1 (Ladbrokes and others) is the tip for me with Sky Lantern looking very short after a pretty busy campaign last season and Nargys only having winning form at maiden level and probably being so short on the basis of being second to Just The Judge.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Haven’t seen the race but from the result all I can say is well done Joni, fantastic stuff
You’re the man Joni. Great stuff.
Henry Cecil:- Trainer of Genius indeed, or as the front page of this site put it "Trainer of Genuis" LOL
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
£25ew Hot Snap – 20-1 Nell Gwyn –
£25ew Hot Snap – 40-1 1,000 Guineas
BTW for anyone interested in betting points I take £25 to be 1 point.
Guys what can I say. Thank you so much for your comments.I got back into my room and watched the replay without knowing the result. I was cheering as if it was live! Absolutely delighted. She looks a really classy filly especially, in the first two furlongs, I thought she was going to be left behind. She has a beautiful fluid action – just hopes she can handle quick ground. She will improve a ton for that outing and for the extra furlong and has to now be a major player for the Guineas.
So happy for Henry as this was a big year for him with Frankel now gone. Nobody does it netter than Sir H!!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Morpheus ran really well but tired in the closing stages and I think he might be more a miler. Pleased with Demonic as well.
£
25ew Morpheus – 5.15 Newmarket – loser
Tomorrow I will have one bet.Stipulate
is a colt I have always liked and I believe you will see a better colt now that he is a year older. He won at this meeting last year and 9f is probably his ideal trip (unfortunately for him). You can get 5’s at the moment but Ladbrokes go 7-2. I will back him to win in a 6 runner race.
£100 win Stipulate – Newmarket 4.40
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Morpheus ran really well but tired in the closing stages and I think he might be more a miler. Pleased with Demonic as well.
£
25ew Morpheus – 5.15 Newmarket – loser
Tomorrow I will have one bet.Stipulate
is a colt I have always liked and I believe you will see a better colt now that he is a year older. He won at this meeting last year and 9f is probably his ideal trip (unfortunately for him). You can get 5’s at the moment but Ladbrokes go 7-2. I will back him to win in a 6 runner race.
£100 win Stipulate – Newmarket 4.40 –
Total –
Now if you had told me that Cecil would have a winner today I would have put my mortgage on it being Stipulate not Tickled Pink. You may think "Joni must be livid to have missed an 8-1 Cecil winner!"…………..well you’re right! I am. BUT I am also delighted that it won. Stipulate ran really well but was a bit keen early on and was beaten by a better horse. I am still hopeful he will pay his way this season.Early days but Cecil and Queally look like men who have had the shackles taken off. All that pressure they must have been under with Frankel is now over and I have a feeling they are going to have a great year.
I have to mention Toronado as well. Deeply impressive. Looks a class animal and those that had Dawn Approach home and hosed must be concerned now. Hannon’s horse will be tough to beat.
Every dry day increases my hopes that GV will still run a big race on fast ground and I see there was some money for him today….at last!
No bets tomorrow but definitely a couple lined up for Saturday. Look out for Cecil’s
Magic of Reality
tomorrow though. Supposed to be very nice and has an Oaks entry although she is up against Gary’s
Vicksburg
who ran a race full of promise last backend.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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